OUTRIGHTS:
Chris DiMarco(18/1) e.w. @ Bet365
David Toms(14/1) e.w. @ Sportingbet
Tom Lehman(80/1)(1/5 for Top 6, it appeared) e.w. @ BetFred
- - Nothing too clever underlying this week's plays, although I am veering somewhat from a few of my usual tendencies. First, it's uncommon for me to have two plays on players priced at under 20/1, but I try to go where my capping takes me. Second, I've noted in prior posts that I generally haven't been able to capitalize on outright wagers made before an event when attempting to factor in whether a local angle will help rather than distract a given player at a given time, but that I have profitably used that factor to stick with plays once a positive start is in progress; nevertheless, I'm still willing to go to that well, or at least not fear it, if I think it's appropriate. Third, while I might be chomping at the bit early to get in a wager on one or more players, I usually make decisions late, after waiting until all possible angles (pairings, newspaper and television coverage, etc.) have been cultivated (to the extent competing demands on my time may permit), and researched, and weighed, before completing my slate, but this week it was really only the last spot at long odds that was in any doubt, and I was satisfied I had enough to pull the trigger anyway (particularly with a 6th spot available in the e.w. calculations). If nothing else, just three early plays would enhance my potential for a return on in-running plays that might materialize, but I won't be at all surprised if I uncover something tangible or ridiculous that triggers another play before Thursday's start. In that vein, I'm already down with some unofficial savers on Mike Weir(40/1), Justin Rose(100/1), Rory Sabbatini(66/1) and Jonathan Kaye(50/1) . . . I like the fact that DiMarco missed the cut here last year, and he won last time out without his regular caddie; and the last time I remember DTB starting a week with on outright tip on DiMarco was last year before the Masters. I like the uncharacteristic implosions David Toms underwent here last year while in the thick of contention, and his mindset during these past months as a private resident and public figure of Katrina ravaged Louisiana. Lehman has been on my radar all season, but so far I've waited patiently to pick a spot; last year, one of my 10-15 strongest (measured by confidence rather than results) plays was Lehman in San Diego after witnessing much of his strong performance in Hawaii, and he very nearly delivered; this year I think the venue sequence is even better off a 16th place finish after a U.S. Open like massacre at San Diego, although this time around the play doesn't include any prior opportunities for personally viewing how he's carrying himself around the course (FWIW, Lehman did birdie his last two holes on Sunday).
GL
