Outright plays (total stake per play: 1.5pts)
Stewart Cink to win 16/1 e.w. @ BetInternet, Victor Chandler, BlueSq, BetFred and BetDirect
Even with the course renovated after the 2004 events and the Bentgrass greens replaced with Bermuda grass, this event has remained one for course specialists. It was a head-to-head battle between Justin Leonard, who had two top-5 and one further top-10 finish in four previous visits, and David Toms, who had finished 4th, 1st and 1st in the previous three years. Toms warrants favouritism this week because of that course form, but Cink can also claim to have finished in the top-5 in his last visit and is in much better form. His worst finish in his last five starts has been 27th, he finished 10th in the Masters and last week he was the first round leader and bounced back well to finish 4th after a disappointing Saturday.
Bob Estes to win 28/1 e.w. @ BetInternet, Bet365, Victor Chandler, Paddy Power and Boyle Sports
Sticking with course form specialists, only Toms can match Estes form over the last five years. In that period, he has won once (2001), finished in the top-5 three times and in the top-10 on a further occasion as well. He is certainly not a prolific enough winner to warrant odds below 25/1, but he has shown enough form recently to suggest that he should be a contender again this week. He finished 2nd in the Houston Open last month and has been among the early runners in each of the last two weeks. But with Estes, it appears unimportant that he is playing well before this event as he has been in poor form in almost each of the last five years before this event and still found his game on this course. At least this year, he won't have as far to look.
Fredrik Jacobson to win 28/1 e.w. @ BetInternet and Bet365
I don't normally put so much emphasis on course form and so Brett Quigley (66/1 BetInternet) would have been the logical third selection, but this course is worthy of special attention and so Jacobsen's three-year course history of 3rd, 5th and 6th cannot be ignored. Nor can his second-round 62 last week at Colonial which brought him right into contention and he remained with three shots of the lead until he reached the turn on Sunday. As with Estes, there's isn't a lot of scope for value at much lower odds, but he really should be another selection who should feature at least at some stage this week.
