Tthe infamous "Zig-zag" theory this NBA postseason
Apr 09, 2016
Spring has always been my favorite season of the year. Most red-blooded, meat-eating, beer-swilling males will claim the Fall due to the return of college and professional football, but I always hated going back to school, which can be perceived as somewhat odd considering the fact that I pursued degrees until the age of 26.
No, for me it has always been about the Spring. The improving weather, commencement of concert season and demise of the school year are just three reasons why. But those aren?t the only reasons. In fact, arguably the two biggest reasons in support of my affinity for the Spring months just so happen to reside right around the corner in the form of the NBA and NHL playoffs.
With the Stanley Cup playoffs scheduled to begin on April 9 and the NBA postseason slated to open exactly one week later, we?re about to be inundated with a plethora of analysis and strategies designed to put sports bettors in a more advantageous position with which to turn a profit. And one of those popular strategies set to rear its head in the very near future is the infamous Zig-Zag Theory.
Simply put, the Zig-Zag Theory is a strategy in which gamblers bet on a team coming off a playoff loss. For example, if the Cleveland Cavaliers were to beat the Indiana Pacers in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference quarterfinals, the Zig-Zag Theory would dictate that we bet on Indiana in Game 2. Why? Well, the prevailing reason for such a maneuver is that teams are more inclined to rebound with a solid showing following a playoff loss in order to stave off elimination.
But here?s the problem: Bookmakers are well aware of the Zig-Zag Theory thanks, in large part, to the rise in sports betting coverage in the mainstream media. With more people tasked with providing more information than at any other time in sports betting?s history, very little usable intelligence is capable of remaining in the shadows. And with more people aware of the Zig-Zag Theory and, therefore, more people implementing the Zig-Zag Theory, the bookmakers know what they?re up against and can adjust their respective point spreads accordingly.
Granted, we are talking about a small sample size here, but if you had chosen to implement the Zig-Zag Theory in every applicable game during last year?s NBA playoffs, you would have posted an ATS record of 33-32-1 which, after factoring in the juice, would have put you in the red. But how does last year stack up against a larger sample size?
From 1991-2015, the NBA Zig-Zag Theory has gone 819-725-38 against the spread, good for a winning percentage of 53.0 percent. However, since 2001, the Zig-Zag theory has dropped to an overall ATS record of just 508-476-28 (51.6 percent), as opposed to the 55.5 percent (311-249-10) mark the strategy produced from 1991-2000.
The 3.9 percent drop in success rate that has occurred over the last 15 installments of the NBA playoffs may not seem like a lot, but it?s enough to go from turning a profit to losing money, which is the exact opposite of what we?re trying to accomplish with these articles.
So what?s the bottom line?
Simple. Feel free to consider the Zig-Zag Theory during your NBA postseason handicapping, but don?t put too much stock in its viability.
Apr 09, 2016
Spring has always been my favorite season of the year. Most red-blooded, meat-eating, beer-swilling males will claim the Fall due to the return of college and professional football, but I always hated going back to school, which can be perceived as somewhat odd considering the fact that I pursued degrees until the age of 26.
No, for me it has always been about the Spring. The improving weather, commencement of concert season and demise of the school year are just three reasons why. But those aren?t the only reasons. In fact, arguably the two biggest reasons in support of my affinity for the Spring months just so happen to reside right around the corner in the form of the NBA and NHL playoffs.
With the Stanley Cup playoffs scheduled to begin on April 9 and the NBA postseason slated to open exactly one week later, we?re about to be inundated with a plethora of analysis and strategies designed to put sports bettors in a more advantageous position with which to turn a profit. And one of those popular strategies set to rear its head in the very near future is the infamous Zig-Zag Theory.
Simply put, the Zig-Zag Theory is a strategy in which gamblers bet on a team coming off a playoff loss. For example, if the Cleveland Cavaliers were to beat the Indiana Pacers in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference quarterfinals, the Zig-Zag Theory would dictate that we bet on Indiana in Game 2. Why? Well, the prevailing reason for such a maneuver is that teams are more inclined to rebound with a solid showing following a playoff loss in order to stave off elimination.
But here?s the problem: Bookmakers are well aware of the Zig-Zag Theory thanks, in large part, to the rise in sports betting coverage in the mainstream media. With more people tasked with providing more information than at any other time in sports betting?s history, very little usable intelligence is capable of remaining in the shadows. And with more people aware of the Zig-Zag Theory and, therefore, more people implementing the Zig-Zag Theory, the bookmakers know what they?re up against and can adjust their respective point spreads accordingly.
Granted, we are talking about a small sample size here, but if you had chosen to implement the Zig-Zag Theory in every applicable game during last year?s NBA playoffs, you would have posted an ATS record of 33-32-1 which, after factoring in the juice, would have put you in the red. But how does last year stack up against a larger sample size?
From 1991-2015, the NBA Zig-Zag Theory has gone 819-725-38 against the spread, good for a winning percentage of 53.0 percent. However, since 2001, the Zig-Zag theory has dropped to an overall ATS record of just 508-476-28 (51.6 percent), as opposed to the 55.5 percent (311-249-10) mark the strategy produced from 1991-2000.
The 3.9 percent drop in success rate that has occurred over the last 15 installments of the NBA playoffs may not seem like a lot, but it?s enough to go from turning a profit to losing money, which is the exact opposite of what we?re trying to accomplish with these articles.
So what?s the bottom line?
Simple. Feel free to consider the Zig-Zag Theory during your NBA postseason handicapping, but don?t put too much stock in its viability.
