FIFA WORLD CUP 2010

[Riskbreaker]

You guys got the Super Bowl, NBA Finals and MMA, while the rest of the world likes to watch men fall down like sissies, pretending to be hurt.

This year the ballerinas head for South Africa and my sweet tooth for gambling is itching.

From a German perspective, i can tell you it seems like we are royally f@%&ed this time round. Losing both our prime goal keepers and team captain Ballack means we got a very young team now. Which is not necessarily a bad thing, but in lowscoring soccer tournaments experience can provide an edge.

They should advance from group stage and we'll be drunk and cheering but after that I dont see them going far.

England is considered a big favourite this year, but they usually find a way to choke. Heck, they didnt even qualify for the last EURO championship 2 years ago.

I prefer the quiet forces like Italy, Spain and Argentina... even the Netherlands might have a shot. Brazil always is a soccer gimme.

Without further ado, group stage toedipping for a half unit each!

FRI 06/11 GROUP A

South Africa vs. Mexico
I made up my mind and went from Mexico to the over. Soccer is a sport where home field advantage can transform a mediocre team into contender... and might influence the ref from Uzbekistan. They both scored at least one goal in their last games and South Africa faces a valid attack after the likes of Zambia, Guatemala and Denmark. And, yay the line dropped from 2.5 to 2!
OVER 2 GOALS -105 0.5 unit

Uruguay vs. France
Reverse double flip obvious bet here, plus a little "hedge". France's last results don't impress including losses against China (bad!), Spain (OK to lose here, but at home...), Rep of Ireland (). But now it counts. An Uruguayan win would be one hell of a surprise and the recent bad results of France give me the lines for my little hedging. Obviously hoping for a draw, but even that result would be surprise territory... for Europeans.
FRANCE ML +121 0.5 unit
DRAW +235 0.5 unit

BOL GUYS
:shade:

 

[Riskbreaker]

Oh boy what a snoozefest and yet another Enjoy the Silence - Vuvuzela Remix. Way to attract more viewers Soccer, I love to hate you with a passion.

Notes:
- biggest disappointment MEX, how can you not keep up the pressure and roll over those deers in headlights (talking about the first 20 minutes)
- South African attacks are pretty one-dimensional
- ... which the Snoozies France and Uru certainly can adapt to
- ... resulting in a France win with a handicapable lead and an Uru 2-0ish win
- MEX should lose vs. France and might get a highscoring draw vs. Uru

1 France
2 Uruguay
3 Mex
4 South Africa

 

[Riskbreaker]

SAT 06/12

South Korea vs. Greece
Long story short: PASS. Keep in mind that friendlies prior to the WC mean shit, see day 1.

Argentina vs. Nigeria | England vs. USA
No rocket science for me on day 2. Just parlaying the two big favs for a unit, anything else would cause a rift in the space-time continuum.
[ ARGENTINA ML / ENGLAND ML ] PARLAY +118 1.00 unit

GL

:director:

 

[Riskbreaker]

Now that there's a rift in the space-time continuum, it's back to half units.

1-2-1 -0.32 units

SUN 06/13

Algeria vs. Slovenia
Captain benched, two guys suspended, playmaker injured for Algeria and beating the UAE only via penalty... why not take Slovenia with decents odds
SLOVENIA -0.5 +131

Serbia vs. Ghana
Serbia not THAT much of a fav in my eyes, also hoping that for Germany's sake. Going with the draw safety net in form of a pk here.
GHANA pk +155

Germany vs. Australia
Here we go. Germany's first option to suck. But after England took that part yesterday, I don't see two consecutive letdowns. I'll pass on the side though and wait and see what unfolds. Instead going with the over here, hoping Germany's internal striker challenge (mainly Klose vs. Cacau) delivers the goods. Side note: Germany should be super motivated if Serbia, which is considered the only real opponent here, doesn't win the afternoon game.
OVER 2.5 +118

GL

:director::0corn

 

[Riskbreaker]

Aussies brace yourself, this is gonna get ugly. Germany won't take prisoners after the Serbia game.

 

[kickserv]

Riskbreaker kicks ass on June 13th:00hour :00hour

 

[ninosaturnino]

very nice!

 

[Riskbreaker]

thank you guys :toast:

3-2-1 +1.70 units

Although I knew Germany would be slaughtering the Aussies yesterday, lets not overrate this game in the big picture. Serbia and especially Ghana, after seeing yesterdays game, are one notch above lowly Australia. I expect their matches with the Germans to be much closer, still Germany might win both of them. But they will take a much more conservative approach with those two, not substituting strikers for other strikers with a lead.

MON 06/14

Holland vs. Denmark
It's too early for me to gamble my hard earned units on an uncertain lead by which Holland will win. The two other matches seem more promising. Also the Robben injury situation is still unsure. Robben is the guy who almost singlehandedly took Bayern to the Champions League Finals this year. Since soccer is such a lowscoring clusterfuck of a crapshoot I'll
PASS

Japan vs. Cameroon
Italy vs. Paraguay

Both those odds feel like early christmas, which usually should raise a big warning sign next to my drooling grimace of gambling. But I came up with a saying right now that says "If you split, it's still a profit". So both for a unit.

CAMEROON -0.5 +118 1 unit
ITALY -0.5 +123 1 unit

GL

:director::0002

 

[Riskbreaker]

"If you don't even split, ... shit"

3-4-1 -0.30 units

Pass on NZ - SLO game.

Later leans portugal and brasil over.

 

[Riskbreaker]

TUE 06/15

This goal drought has to stop sooner or later. Today might be the day for two capable teams to follow Germany's example and kick the shit out of lesser teams.

Since my split theory worked so well yesterday, here I go again. Both for a unit with whats left of hope for mathematical diversity and an exciting world cup where more than Vuvuzelas keeps you awake.

Ivory Coast vs Portugal
OVER 2.5 +171 1 unit

Brazil vs North Korea
OVER 3 +113 1 unit

GL

:director:

 

[Riskbreaker]

3-5-2 -1.30 units

WED 06/16

I got a feeling, uuhuuh that today's gonna be a good day

... if I start by passing on Chile.

Spain vs Switzerland
Spain might pull the next Germany on Switzerland. Swiss coach Hitzfeld lowered expectations by saying that Spain's style of play does not match up well with his team. Going with Asian handicap on Spain and over here, at least one _should_ hit... please!
SPAIN -1.5 +114 1 unit
OVER 2.5 +111 1 unit

South Africa vs. Uruguay
Sticking with my notes from day 1. Uruguay should win nice and safe. First 2 unit play.
URUGUAY -0.5 +142 2 units

BOL

 

[kickserv]

URUGUAY result saved ya:0058

 

[Riskbreaker]

It did kickserv... but oh boy... what a bad bad tournament to watch (gambling aside)

Saw some stats on TV yesterday:

- Fewest goals on a WC day one ever
- Lowest conversion of opportunities
- and - drum roll - most goal keeper errors since 44 years

When the most keeper errors occur during the biggest goal drought ever... u do the math

Read an article yesterday that modern soccer - like many other sports, granted - is mostly result oriented, short and longterm. Underdogs dont wanna get slaughtered, favourites dont want to drop the ball. Everyones into prevention of bad things, or better put: goals against you. In soccer post-game interviews most of the time start out like this "We didn't leave them much room, moved well in defense and gave them few opportunities" They lose perspective of the fact that to WIN a game you have to SCORE FRICKIN GOALS!

... which leads me to my first dart throw today (passing on ARG vs SK)

THU 06/17

Greece vs. Nigeria
Both teams lost their first match and have to win this one (Greece more than Nigeria because they'll get Argentina next) to have a shot at advancing from group stage. Winning = Scoring =? OVER? Hope...
OVER 2 GOALS +123 1 unit

Might also sqeeze inbetween that goal difference is second tiebreaker in group stage after points. So latest at group day 3 some teams finally will be forced to score some goals.

France vs. Mexico
Again sticking with my notes. France field day, should book their ticket like the Uruguayans did yesterday. Mexico will desperately throw everything at them, but thats not much as seen on day 1.
FRANCE -0.5 +128 2 units

BOL

:0corn