FINALS-3
- Thread starter DZ
- Start date
Given the odd line tonight (Cavs favored/PK in the 1H, Warriors favored for the game) there will be anomolies with some props where advantages can be found. There is a good reason that the 1H and game lines differ from the norm. This is because the trend of teams down 0-2 in the playoffs is very strong towards the home team in the 1st half. One prop, I would suggest looking around for are your standard First to 10, First to 15 & First to 20 points props. I managed to find a price on the latter that was mis-priced and have played it pretty strong as I think it is 35-40 cents off. There are also some interesting player props tonight. Hopefully, I'll have some time to get into those later.
CLE to SCORE 20 POINTS FIRST (+125) 8x
CLE to SCORE 20 POINTS FIRST (+125) 8x
Was just looking at the lines. I may just split the bet and take the double result CLE/CLE +220 and CLE/GS +550 rather than just the FH. Still have CLE in the first half with the extra payouts especially if GS ends up winning.
- Mar 19, 2006
- 38,187
- 365
- 83
- 74
......good luck tonite and thanks for all your help ..you know your stuff.
they better get to 20 first ......GS already knows first hand what can happen
game 3 2016
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- Mar 19, 2006
- 38,187
- 365
- 83
- 74
- Mar 19, 2006
- 38,187
- 365
- 83
- 74
I can get the first to 10 or the first 20. They are both -105. Not sure which of the two would be more likely to hit. Any stats on how the Cav's perform in the first several minutes?
- Mar 19, 2006
- 38,187
- 365
- 83
- 74
at -105 you are getting it at 15.00 better than some shops...
they are -120 at first to 20
-120 to 15
-110 to 10
warriors are -120 to 10 and I don't know why..
Cavs are a mystery to every backboard in America...and most nets.......
0-1 to Pacers next game again at home 33 first quarter easy money
2-2 w/ Pacers Cavs come home get out scored first quarter
game 7 vs Pacers at home blow their doors off first quarter..
Toronto series out scored there ..won first quarters at home
Boston game 3 Cavs at home blew their doors off first quarter
Game 4 again 34-18 over Bost first quarter
they go on the road and suck in the first quarter..
that is all I got...
:0002
JR getting the start. Hood isn't starting but he'll get into the rotation tonight. There's no telling how many minutes he'll play, but 10-15 or so would seem logical. Not a huge impact, but I expect we'll see Hill's minutes cut short, as that has been Lue's pattern in the past when Hood plays. Shame, because Hill was a prime candidate for over 10.5 points tonight, which he still may eclipse, but the uncertainty of the rotation+minutes makes it hard to play any overs. Lue is loyal to JR to a flaw. Guy needs to be coming off the bench. Korver under looks good still, but I wouldn't play it large. Maybe lay off with that one just for game 3 as the situation would seem optimal for him to knock down a couple threes at home where the role players usually step up. The line has been adjusted down enough, but the plus money still makes it intriguing at that price, OS.
A few other thoughts...
I had a very strong lean to the UNDER at 217, but I chose to lay off as I anticipate a fast start for CLE to this one. After the 1st quarter and especially in the 2H I expect CLE to slow down the pace and try to grind out a win as this strategy affords them the best opportunity to stay in the series. The cat is out of the bag, so to speak, about the Warriors in 3rd Quarter and using it as a launch pad to come back from a deficit or build a big lead and put teams away. The Cavs actually won the 3rd Quarter in game 2 and I anticipate they'll aim to do the same thing. I'm hoping that there will be an in-running opportunity on the total where I can get something around 222 and hit the under. It's hard for me to see the first half clearing 110, but if it does, expect a slower 2H as this is do or die for the home team.
I'm not in love with it at -105, because you're still paying vig, however small. It's not a bad bet necessarily, given the situation, just not one with a ton of value. The Cavs are still projected to start fast and this is reflected in how the first half line differs from the full game line, which has dropped significantly now. If you consider that the first half line is essentially pick'em then you might expect this prop to be a coinflip, but there's the situational factor to consider here (I don't think I need to go over all of them) which heavily favors Cleveland early minutes of the game. I would say that given the situation, the -105 would still be worth a small play, but only very small. For context, I probably wouldn't have considered the prop had I not found it so mis-priced to begin with. You don't bet this if you're laying -115 or higher, that's for sure.
- Mar 19, 2006
- 38,187
- 365
- 83
- 74
can't imagine Cavs not winning this first quarter........
they respond to their crowd at least once a series....is it home games 1 or 2...
hard to believe they wait till game 2 this time.........
total 55.......Cavs -1/2
minus and over :shrug:...
I don't know.........
they respond to their crowd at least once a series....is it home games 1 or 2...
hard to believe they wait till game 2 this time.........
total 55.......Cavs -1/2
minus and over :shrug:...
I don't know.........
- Mar 19, 2006
- 38,187
- 365
- 83
- 74
Think Dubs get the $ 1st Qtr...
You look back on similar playoff situations in Lebron's last 4 years in Cleveland (since his return) and their 1st Quarter margins with their backs up again the wall are very strong. The only blip on the radar is game 3 of last year's finals, but even in game 4 they came back and won the 1st quarter there. But we have to bring into context for that series that the Cavs defense suffered immensely in the second half of the season and throughout the playoffs and GS scored 33 or more in every 1st quarter of last year's finals. The Cavs have shown they can defend this team with intensity at times and the 1st quarter of tonights game provides and ideal situation for them to do just that. However, having played the first half at the number I got and the 1st quarter now at -1/2 or -1 with a tall glass of juice, I'll pass on that and focus on getting value on the game total with in-running.
My feeling is that the Cavs will no doubt win at least one at home. No way Bron gets swept. No way in hell.
I ended up betting K Love Over 18.5 points. He's averaged over 20 against the Warriors this year. I think they will get him the ball more tonight.
I ended up betting K Love Over 18.5 points. He's averaged over 20 against the Warriors this year. I think they will get him the ball more tonight.
