I've been spending some time the past few weeks analyzing how teams perform in the first half, to see if I can get an advantage on first half betting. A few stats that I've gathered:
In 43 games, 811 points have been scored in the first half. This averages 18.86 points
856 points have been scored in the second half and overtime. This means 48.6% of the total points scored so far have been in the first half of the game.
While these don't necessarily mean anything so far, I believe they're pretty indicative of a normal season to this point. A few less points in the first half, as teams get into the game.
Anyway, I look at the first half lines for each game, and look back to the teams' performances so far, to see if there looks to be a positive angle. I've found four games where I believe the first half totals are a bit too high.
NOTE: a 1x pick for me on a halftime bet is the equivalent of a 0.5x bet normally. I'm not gonna lose my butt just because the opening kick is returned for a TD.
St Louis at Detroit
1st Half Total: 24.5
I really like the hook on 24 here. Rams have scored 47 of their 89 points in the first half, which goes against us. However, the Lions have only scored 6 points total in the first half of their two games. Granted, they were against better defenses than the Rams, but face it, Detroit has offensive problems. I look for Detroit to try to keep possesion of the ball as much as possible, as they have no chance at beating St Louis in a fast paced game.
PICK: 1st Half Under 24.5 (1x)
Minnesota at New Orleans
1st Half Total: 22.5
I drooled like a dog under the dinner table when I saw this line. Minnesota has had a hard time moving the ball in the first half all year - even in the preseason. In three games, Minnesota has scored a whopping 13 points in the first half. In two games, the Saints have scored 3 points in the first half. I'd take this under even at 20.5.
PICK: 1st Half Under 22.5 (4x)
Tennessee at Baltimore
1st Half Total: 17.0 (-120)
In what should be a very low scoring game, getting 17 is a gift. I was fully expecting to see 16.5, in which I would pass. For a couple of teams having trouble scoring, and with solid defensive units, I can't pass this up. Taking into consideration that the Titans have scored 13 total points in the first half of their two games, and the Ravens have scored 12 in their three first halves (one game vs. Denver), it looks too easy...
PICK: 1st Half Under 17.0 (1x)
Carolina at San Francisco
1st Half Total: 22.5
San Francisco has scored 32 points in their three first halves so far. One of these games was vs. the Rams, which accounted for half of these. Panthers have scored 27 in their three first halves. One TD was a kickoff return. Panthers have only given up 16 points in their three first halves. 49ers have given up 29. Like this one for a small play.
PICK: 1st Half Under 22.5 (1x)
Good luck.
In 43 games, 811 points have been scored in the first half. This averages 18.86 points
856 points have been scored in the second half and overtime. This means 48.6% of the total points scored so far have been in the first half of the game.
While these don't necessarily mean anything so far, I believe they're pretty indicative of a normal season to this point. A few less points in the first half, as teams get into the game.
Anyway, I look at the first half lines for each game, and look back to the teams' performances so far, to see if there looks to be a positive angle. I've found four games where I believe the first half totals are a bit too high.
NOTE: a 1x pick for me on a halftime bet is the equivalent of a 0.5x bet normally. I'm not gonna lose my butt just because the opening kick is returned for a TD.
St Louis at Detroit
1st Half Total: 24.5
I really like the hook on 24 here. Rams have scored 47 of their 89 points in the first half, which goes against us. However, the Lions have only scored 6 points total in the first half of their two games. Granted, they were against better defenses than the Rams, but face it, Detroit has offensive problems. I look for Detroit to try to keep possesion of the ball as much as possible, as they have no chance at beating St Louis in a fast paced game.
PICK: 1st Half Under 24.5 (1x)
Minnesota at New Orleans
1st Half Total: 22.5
I drooled like a dog under the dinner table when I saw this line. Minnesota has had a hard time moving the ball in the first half all year - even in the preseason. In three games, Minnesota has scored a whopping 13 points in the first half. In two games, the Saints have scored 3 points in the first half. I'd take this under even at 20.5.
PICK: 1st Half Under 22.5 (4x)
Tennessee at Baltimore
1st Half Total: 17.0 (-120)
In what should be a very low scoring game, getting 17 is a gift. I was fully expecting to see 16.5, in which I would pass. For a couple of teams having trouble scoring, and with solid defensive units, I can't pass this up. Taking into consideration that the Titans have scored 13 total points in the first half of their two games, and the Ravens have scored 12 in their three first halves (one game vs. Denver), it looks too easy...
PICK: 1st Half Under 17.0 (1x)
Carolina at San Francisco
1st Half Total: 22.5
San Francisco has scored 32 points in their three first halves so far. One of these games was vs. the Rams, which accounted for half of these. Panthers have scored 27 in their three first halves. One TD was a kickoff return. Panthers have only given up 16 points in their three first halves. 49ers have given up 29. Like this one for a small play.
PICK: 1st Half Under 22.5 (1x)
Good luck.
