First home game off the 4+ game road trip

[GM]

I've seen a lot of talk about this, and I've been a believer in it for some time myself. (Actually I wrote quite a bit about it at my former posting site). I followed this system last year, and it got off to a coolish-.500 or so start, but then really heated up after about mid-December.

Anyways, just to make it a bit easier for everyone, I've gone thru the schedule and picked out all situations I could find where a team is home off of a 4+ game road trip, up until New Year's.

I know there are slight variations on this system, such as the team must have a day off after the trip etc. I think in almost every situation a team coming back from a cross-continent trip gets that day off, so I don't know if it has much effect...never kept track of that.

Anyways, including tonight's games the system is already 4-2 ATS, betting AGAINST the team that just got home. Here is the schedule...add any situations if I have missed them... (W/L record indicates whether the SYSTEM won or lost...ie. a 'W' means the home team did NOT cover. The number in brackets is the # of consec. road games the home team played prior to this game.)

Nov 13 - Tor @ Sac (4), L, 0-1
Nov 13 - Sea @ Pho (5), W, 1-1
Nov 14 - Uta @ Atl (4), L, 1-2
Nov 14 - Tor @ GS (4), W, 2-2
Nov 20 - Det @ Tor (6), W, 3-2
Nov 20 - Hou @ Por (5), W, 4-2
Nov 21 - Min @ Orl (5), L, 4-3
Nov 24 - Chi @ NY (4), W, 5-3

Nov 27 - Chi @ NJ (5)
Nov 27 - Sac @ Hou (4)
Nov 29 - Mia @ Chi (7)
Dec 2 - Dal @ Sac (4)
Dec 4 - NY @ Mil (4)
Dec 4 - Den @ Ind (5)
Dec 5 - Den @ Bos (5)
Dec 11 - Cha @ Den (4)
Dec 12 - Mia @ Wsh (4)
Dec 13 - Tor @ Cha (6)
Dec 14 - Mil @ Phil (5)
Dec 19 - Uta @ Orl (6)
Dec 19 - Min @ NJ (4)
=============================
Dec 26 - Bos @ Uta (5)
Dec 26 - Atl @ Mil (4)
Dec 27 - NY @ Det (5)

* - the last 3 games may not really fit the profile, as all players will have had the Christmas break after the road trip.

GM

{edits to update record}

[This message has been edited by GM (edited 11-25-2001).]

 

[hellah10]

So what your saying is take Minnesota +5 tomorrow!? I couldnt really follow the write-up...then again Iam an idiot. hahah. thanks though.

OD

 

[GM]

Well, it's up to you, but yes, that is the system....to take the road team ATS in each of those games. I'll never come out and tell anyone they should take anything though if they don't actually like it.

 

[hellah10]

oh well thats cool. Cuz I liked Minnesota before I even read this...and by reading your write up..I might throw more on Minnesota. I cant see why Minny cant beat Orlando. Thanks

OD

 

[GM]

Minny did play tonight, so they're coming in with no rest. I'm careful when that's the case. For that matter betting on Chicago is pretty scary too, so I don't know what to think of the next two plays after Minn @ Orl.

 

[TBoyrent]

GM, I play that system only with a little twist. I look at the team coming home and if they covered the last game on the road I go against them and if they did not cover I bet with them. Had 2 last night which were Det@Tor =Det outright winner and Hou@Port=outright winner,both Tor and Port. had covered the last game on their trips.Hope this can be of usein draining the man.BTW ORLANDO tonite fits the system.GL

 

[GM]

TBoyrent,

That's a twist I hadn't heard. I don't have Orlando fitting the system by your way though. By my records Orl was +1 and lost by 8 in their last game, which happened to be against the same T-Wolves. Orlando has also had 3 days rest now too, which may lessen the effects of this system. Coupled with Minny's no rest, I'm not super-keen on this system tonight.

...

As an aside, I think it's interesting Minn would be -1 @ home to Orl, but +5 on the road to them. Maybe it's due to the rest vs non-rest. In essence the line says Orlando is considered the better team. Just hard to figure this. I think the linemaker/general public give Orlando WAY too much credit. I just don't see them being that good a team.

 

[kcwolf]

GM,

Good discussion and has been talked about in the past. I need to read my file notes more often. My brain must be turning to mush.

Should have remembered that when I played Portland last night.

I use this on teams coming home after 4 or more road games, as GM mentioned, and 1 day of rest. Gets a little more risky after two days rest.

Haven't yet looked at the Orlando game, but favor Orlando with out a deeper look.

Thanks for bringing this up again!

gl tonight!

kcwolf

 

[TBoyrent]

GM,sorry this is so late,just got back from Cincy.The system play tonite with Orlando failing to cover the last game on the road trip I bet on them to cover tonite.You have the Chi@NY on 11/24 look and see if NY covers the last game on the road,if they cover it then I would bet against them vs the Bulls and if they don't cover then I would bet on them. Thats my system,its been pretty good over the last year and a half that I've used it.Hope I put this so its easy to understand if not email me and we can discuss it more.

 

[GM]

Bringing this back up to the top as the Chi/NY game today qualifies for this system. Lukewarm results so far, just as it started off last year, but I'm still keeping an eye on it.

Not sure if I will bet Chi or not, but at this point I am inclined to do so. Chi already beat NY once this year, and I really do not like a low-scoring team like the Knicks to have to cover a big, big number. Historically NY can't cover the biggies...and this year's version of the Knicks looks to be worse than recent editions.

TBoyrent - Well, NY did not cover their last road game (in fact they really got spanked), so for you I guess it would be a bet on NY.

I'm going to keep track of how the system performs the original way for now....but will watch it to see if your twist performs better.

(edit)

After further review, I'm passing on this game.

[This message has been edited by GM (edited 11-24-2001).]

 

[Gregory]

Appears both teams have been idle for the last two days.

One of the better bits of wisdom I've seen in these forums says something to the effect of never ask bad teams to do good things. (Like cover anything.)

These two ideas together are enough to cause me to take a pass on the whole contest.

 

[STEEL CITY SELECTIONS]

there are a few myths regarding nba trends..
and i believe the trend your mentioning is one of them..i did some research on 1st home game after 4 or more road trip...went back last 3-yrs.......and i broke down a couple steps further...i looked home team as fav. and dog...and on 0-days off...1-day off and 2 or more days off....heres the numbers...

98/99[strike shortened season]

0-days off...
fav...4-4
dog...2-1

1-day off...
fav....4-3
dog....2-2

2+days off...
fav....4-2
dog....2-1

overall for 98/88...18-13

99/00

0-days off....
fav....1-3
dog....1-1

1-day off....
fav....12-13
dog....13-5

2+days off....
fav....7-9
dog....5-5

99/00 overall...39-36

00/01.....

0-days off.....
fav....3-0
dog....1-1

1-day off....
fav....15-19
dog....6-5

2+days off...
fav...7-6
dog...10-4

00/01 overall....42-35

totals last 3-years.....
favs....57-59
dogs....42-25
overall........99-84

so as you can see the complete opposite of what you would think happened...its actually not a bad play to bet ON the home dogs in this situation.

so never blindly base your play on 1-system or trend unless you have researched it for some yrs. back. and found consistent results.

one other point that i believe may be helpful...

never base a play on what you would think is a fatigue situation!! because they simply dont exist. for example i see many cappers say...this team is playing 5th game of road trip on back-to-back they are tired...mistake!! thats just one example...but you see this applied to many situations...3rd game in 4 nites...4th game in 5 or 6 nites....and on and on...
ive researched all these situations and ive found no-edge whatsoever by playing against teams in supposedly fatigued situations. in fact, in alot of these situations you will get increased value in the line due to public mis-perception.

heres 1-example from this season.....
minnesota won in 2-ot at indiana. on 11/16
their starters played 213 minutes...
next game at home 11/17 bact-to-back..they were a small fav. -1 over orlando...notice great value in line....normally minny should be a -3 to -5 home-fav. over orlando...
anyway, minny wins and covers 103-95.
how much more fatigued can an nba team be than minny shouldve been in this game...
2-ot.....flew home...no-rest...playing next day. still they win/cover.

there is 3-spots where ive found that fatigue has shown up as a go-against...thru-6yrs. of tracking....these are all situations when a teams starters have played 170+ minutes, or 4-starters played 40+ mins....and team on back-to-back..
there is an edge to
play against a team in these spots [listed below]....so if you like add these to your analysis when capping a game.

on home su win then road.

on home su loss road.

on road su loss home.


so dont be fooled by the fatigue myth.....in fact there is many times you can use it to your advantage!!!

hope this helps, gluck all, burgh.