FIRST ROUND......

[Investment Executive]

we have not got the series prices yet but want to get this up so we can review and plan strategy as soon as they do....we will come back to this post later on in the week.

in the 1st round only:

*teams that win game 1 win the series 62.5% of the time(70-42)...this equates -160 on the moneyline.

*home teams that win game 1 win the series 71.9% of the time(46-18)..this equates to -260 on the moneyline.

*visiting teams that win game 1 win the series 50% of the time(24-24)....and of course this equates to +100 on the moneyline.

*home teams that win game 1 have a record of 42-22 in game 2..(65.6%)..rounded off this equates to -190 on the moneyline.

*visiting teams that win game 1 have a record of 12-36 in game 2..(25.0%).......which inversley equates to -300 on the moneyline for the home team.

what we keep an eye on is underdogs for the series who have a strong possibilty of winning game 1..

like i say will get back to this more later in the week.

IE

 

[katts]

The mins and max I've found so far (the sportsbook offering the max line is at the right):


Flyers to win series -130 -112 5 Dimes (last night)
Sabres to win series -108 +110 5 Dimes

Red Wings to win series -800 -700 WSEX
Kings to win series +500 +550 5 Dimes

Blues to win series -300 -270 Grand Central Sports
Sharks to win series +210 +250 Olympic

Senators to win series -340 -250 Intertops
Maple Leafs to win series +220 +270 Olympic
middle alert

New Jersey Devils -1000 -700 Intertops
Hurricanes to win series +500 +700 Wagerstreet

Penguins to win series -135 -120 Intertops
Capitals to win series EVEN +115 WSEX

Stars to win series -450 -400 V.I.P.
Oilers to win series +325 +350 5 Dimes

Avalanche to win series -1250 -1000 GameDay
Canucks to win series +750 +1000 Gold Medal Sports


BTW sorry to disappoint some of you here, but if you like Colorado or Detroit, you obviously need to take a "Values 101" course.


[This message has been edited by katts (edited 04-10-2001).]

[This message has been edited by katts (edited 04-10-2001).]

[This message has been edited by katts (edited 04-10-2001).]

[This message has been edited by katts (edited 04-11-2001).]

 

[jigs]

I think the Oilers offer some value in this series. The Oilers have a good young hockey team that has a shot at upsetting an aging Dallas hockey team. Goaltending will be key in this series and Salo's time to shine has arrived.

Prediction, Edmonton in 7

[This message has been edited by jigs (edited 04-10-2001).]

 

[mw]

I have to like the Leafs at +250 or so. Ottawa doesn't know what it takes to win in the playoffs. Example: after Dallas smoked them 5-1 a few weeks ago, Zamuner or Redden (can't remember which) talked about how Ottawa was more talented on paper. That's a dubious statement in itself, but the point is that the statement reflects a serious lack of understanding of what it takes to win when the chips are down. And that was coming from a Canadian, not one of Ottawa's many Euros.

Toronto was the higher seed (and won the series 4-2) when these teams met last year, and -- especially when you factor in the injuries to Ottawa -- I don't think things have changed enough to justify Ottawa laying this kind of price. Then when I compare Joseph to the untested Lalime, I really like the Leafs here.

There may be a little value in the Oilers. I see the Stars winning, but my first thoughts were that they should be about -280 or so, so Oil at +300 or more may be worth a small play. The big difference with this year's team is MacTavish behind the bench.

But beware -- the Oilers have improved, but I don't think the Stars are fading. I think the perception of the "aging Stars" is off-base, as Hull (36) and Nieuwendyk (34) are the only guys old enough to worry about. (Modano's 30, and the D is still young enough to be IMPROVING with each passing year -- Hatcher 28, Sydor 28, Matvichuk 27, Zubov 30). Granted, Hull and Nieuwendyk are crucial, but they both had much better years this year than last. Nieuwendyk had 29 goals in 69 games this year (just 15 in 48 last year) and Hull had 39 in 79 (compared to 24 in 79 last year).

Also, last year the Stars played Edmonton without Lehtinen or Zubov. Lehtinen's importance is underestimeated; last year when he missed all but 17 games in the regular season, his linemates couldn't get it done without him. Modano, who has been +25 or better 4 of the last 5 years, was even. Hull was a -21, compared to +19 and +10 in his two other seasons with the Stars.

And the Stars are on a roll -- 13 games without a loss, outscoring opponents by 48-19 in that stretch. Chemistry is good, and forward depth is improved. The fourth line with Donato and Van Allen is much better than last year's (Gavey/Sloan/Lyashenko). The third line is solid, although Guy Carbonneau is the one significant loss from last year's team. On the second line, Marshall has really stepped up, and on defense Lukowich at +28 is the most improved player on the team. In short, though it would be great to have Carbo, the Stars are as talented as they were last year and probably have better chemistry -- and they're 100% healthy, as Diduck has been activated. Dallas has the better power play (6th at 19.6% vs. 21st at 14.9%) and penalty kill (4th at 86.2% vs. 15th at 83.8%). Head-to-head Dallas is 4-18 on the power play vs. Edm this year, and 13 for 13 on the kill. Belfour also still has a decided edge over Salo in net. Despite Edmonton's improvement, I have to like the Stars to win the series. I'm just not sure about the price.

 

[katts]

mw - You're absolutely correct: it would be quite a surprise to see the Oilers win that serie. But you see all kinds of things in the playoffs. Don't lay that kind of money on Dallas, I insure you, it doesn't worth it.

The loss of "Carbo Power" will hurt during the playoffs. This guy was the kind that any team wants in their lineup when comes playoff time. The Stars will feel some emptiness in the dressing room this year... And the dressing room athmosphere is one big factor in the playoffs.

 

[jigs]

mw, you bring up some valid points. I'm placing a small play on the series because I belive it has value. No doubt the Stars have had the Oilers number in the past with the exception of the upset in 97. MacTavish has proved to be a excellent coach and motivator, which could provide the missing piece of the puzzle. One thing that puzzles me is the behaviour of Belfour this year. Don't get me wrong, I like the guy and he has played some outstanding hockey this year. But something doesn't seem right with him on an emotional level. If Edmonton can get to him early, I think they have a shot.GL

 

[mw]

About Belfour, you could have said the same thing last year. At least he didn't get arrested this year.