Fletcher
- Thread starter Redhog
- Start date
that not stupid say the line is -110 in in football and i play my unit say 100 you lay 100 to win 90.90 insted of 110 to win 100
this really comes into play if you play fav's like i do in baseball,and when it comes to baseball a line doesnot scare me off if i like the game i play it even if they try to make it unplayable i will just find my 4-5 other games i like and 2 team it with the key team that is ment to be out of reach and if you key game hit and 3 other you do good for the day,and if it doesnot win you still have lost less then you would say r.johnson-280 you want to win 200 you would lay 560 well i can 2 team 5 games at 100 with johnson as my key and would only lose 500 if he lost and winning 3 games i have made a profrit because i am already counting johnson as a win,that line is 280 for a reason,but you cant play every high line or mid range and expect to win you look for the team that you think will win and know why then play it,i don't even look at lines in baseball could care less i work on mismatches and pitchers and hot cold team day night teams and r/l matchups due to team stats and bullpins.good pitching&deff will beat hitting 65-70 percent of the time just ask the rangers or look at the cubs last year not many sticks but pitching did the job and got wins for them it was not due to the massers they had.
this really comes into play if you play fav's like i do in baseball,and when it comes to baseball a line doesnot scare me off if i like the game i play it even if they try to make it unplayable i will just find my 4-5 other games i like and 2 team it with the key team that is ment to be out of reach and if you key game hit and 3 other you do good for the day,and if it doesnot win you still have lost less then you would say r.johnson-280 you want to win 200 you would lay 560 well i can 2 team 5 games at 100 with johnson as my key and would only lose 500 if he lost and winning 3 games i have made a profrit because i am already counting johnson as a win,that line is 280 for a reason,but you cant play every high line or mid range and expect to win you look for the team that you think will win and know why then play it,i don't even look at lines in baseball could care less i work on mismatches and pitchers and hot cold team day night teams and r/l matchups due to team stats and bullpins.good pitching&deff will beat hitting 65-70 percent of the time just ask the rangers or look at the cubs last year not many sticks but pitching did the job and got wins for them it was not due to the massers they had.
makes sense..thanks for replying. I have done pretty well in baseball in the past but just playing straight bets..Tend to get scared away by the big lines..but like you say they are big for a reason..Might try pairing them as key bets this year
i never thought of that (guess that why i'm hanging out at MJs)
the big line always scared me away.
redhog or fletch, or anyone, do you guys ever play runlines? are they sucker bets. i figure they are a 1 in 4 chance, like playing reds to win by 2 -- they can win by1 (loss), they can lose by 1 (loss), they can by by 2 or more (loss) or they can win by more than 2 (win). is that wacked out math?
:shrug:
the big line always scared me away.
redhog or fletch, or anyone, do you guys ever play runlines? are they sucker bets. i figure they are a 1 in 4 chance, like playing reds to win by 2 -- they can win by1 (loss), they can lose by 1 (loss), they can by by 2 or more (loss) or they can win by more than 2 (win). is that wacked out math?
:shrug:
i might play 8-10 a year and it has to be on the road because if the home team is a rl and you are up 1 going into the 9th you are screwed.
now i will take a short dog i like and turn them into a fav taking the +1.5 once in a while i drive nick.d nuts with this. but it must be a game that i think will be a pitch duel.
but as a whole i really don't like them,it depends how much i am up for the week i also play progressions with the fav at times but this has to be thought out to the tee with your units or you can be screwed by game 3.hard to explain i will do it at the start of the season to show you.
now i will take a short dog i like and turn them into a fav taking the +1.5 once in a while i drive nick.d nuts with this. but it must be a game that i think will be a pitch duel.
but as a whole i really don't like them,it depends how much i am up for the week i also play progressions with the fav at times but this has to be thought out to the tee with your units or you can be screwed by game 3.hard to explain i will do it at the start of the season to show you.
Great reasoning, Flethcher.
I agree with his method of parlaying teams laying big numbers. Absolutely no value in playing them straight, and certainly minimizes your losses should that team lose. As an example, I remember two yrs ago when Randy Johnson went through that horrendous streak losing by a run or two. Imaging laying -300 everytime.
If you're an underdog player there's nothing like baseball. Last yr the Braves as faves were good go-against plays in certain situations. Their offense was downright offensive at times. Yet they remained mid to high faves because of Maddux, Glavine, et al. But instead of playing the underdog (i.e. Expos, Marlins) on the ML, I went with the runline just to be "safe". As Fletch said, best scenario is when it's likely a pitchers duel.
I agree with his method of parlaying teams laying big numbers. Absolutely no value in playing them straight, and certainly minimizes your losses should that team lose. As an example, I remember two yrs ago when Randy Johnson went through that horrendous streak losing by a run or two. Imaging laying -300 everytime.
If you're an underdog player there's nothing like baseball. Last yr the Braves as faves were good go-against plays in certain situations. Their offense was downright offensive at times. Yet they remained mid to high faves because of Maddux, Glavine, et al. But instead of playing the underdog (i.e. Expos, Marlins) on the ML, I went with the runline just to be "safe". As Fletch said, best scenario is when it's likely a pitchers duel.
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