Football Handicapping Advice (not mine)

[buddy]

Earlier today, I read an "As I See It" article by Jimmy Vaccaro. Even though it was intended for pre-season NFL, I thought this tidbit was a pretty good assessment on football handicapping in general...Especially the last sentence.

"Look at every game separately and see where they are playing, where they've been and where they are going before you make your choice on the August games. If the price is overly inflated going against conventional wisdom, you might pocket an extra winner in pre-season. You have to understand both the number and the situation and if you do you should not get hurt."

 

[Chopsticks]

buddy

buddy

Though I agree with him whole heartedly, it's a lot easier said than done. So many hours spent capping a game, seconds to call it into a bookie or bet it online, and an eternity waiting for "00" to appear on the game clock to show that those many hours capping were worth it. Best of luck buddy and I'll see you at the cage.

 

[buddy]

Riddle...

What do you think Vaccaro means when he says you must understand the "situation?"

Do you think the "situation" is where they are playing, where they've been and where they are going...

Or do you think it's something more.

I think those things are very important, but I think something else needs to be considered.

I think I know, but I ain't tellin'.

Not yet, anyway.

 

[THE KOD]

What do you think Vaccaro means when he says you must understand the "situation?"

Do you think the "situation" is where they are playing, where they've been and where they are going...

Or do you think it's something more.

I think I know, but I ain't tellin'.

Last year we had a guy in here who said if he found out that NFL football was fixed, that he would just try to bet the side it was fixed towards. Could that be a situation ?

I think it was beantownjim who said it.


Scott-Atlanta

 

[buddy]

Scott,

What I know and what I think I know are two different animals.

I don't know much to begin with and what I think I know is even less.

At best, it seems that a "situation" in football is a very slippery term.

But...

with some hard work and a little savvy, I think an educated handicapper can look at the number and his interpretation of the situation to try and glean four aspects:

1. Value
2. Momentum
3. Logic
4. Probability

In my way of thinking, Value is a function of Logic and Probability is a function of Momentum.

 

[THE KOD]

with some hard work and a little savvy, I think an educated handicapper can look at the number and his interpretation of the situation to try and glean four aspects:

1. Value
2. Momentum
3. Logic
4. Probability

In my way of thinking, Value is a function of Logic and Probability is a function of Momentum. [/B]

So what your saying then buddy is "its a crapshoot "


Scott-Atlanta

 

[buddy]

No!

I try to base my handicapping (fwiw) on logic and probability.

The "situation", which is purely a subjective interpretation, determines the probability of the equation.

The "number" is the bookmakers "logic".

The handicapper's "logic" is whether or not the number has "value" for his particular play.

Value is a function of logic.

Probability is a function of momentum.

 

[djv]

Aaa, my good friend buddy that word logic. For sure there is little in preseason. When I see something in pre season that just seems so good. I tell my self go the other way. For darn sure you must understand if the coach is a use all the players type coach. Some those guys I swear win in pre season because they cant in the reg season.

 

[buddy]

djv,

Pre-season NFL ain't my cuppa' tea.

But I'll bet anyway. LOL

Things for me don't really kick in till the third week of college football.

Week 1...I'm guessin'.

Week 2...I do have an angle for this based on week 1's outcomes.

Week 3..."Aye, Caramba!!!"

Last year, the House sliced and carved my hiney like a Christmas Turkey.

Not this year.

My goal this year is to "let it ride" and hit 7 in a row. No Losers.

I had a dream last night that I was sittin' in one of those big leather chairs like a big judge lookin' down at my bookie who was sayin', "Please, buddy, please. Mercy.

LOL

 

[Chopsticks]

buddy

buddy

I have faith in ya buddy. From what we've talked about before, 7 in a row is not too far fetched of a goal. I'll ride it out with you if you don't mind. Best of luck.