Maddux Sports
10* Florida Int
JEFF SCOTT
Over 70 AZ/OREGON
Jeff Scott (Adds)
BEST OF THE REST
Florida Atlantic/ Florida International Under 47
RAS I didn't see total on AZ/OREGON in the thread which is odd, I know they posted that play somewhere
Under 60 UTEP/La Tech
Over 62 Utah/UCLA
Over 61 Ga South/N Mex St
Under 63 VT/NC
Under 61.5 N Texas/Indiana
Under 61 SMU/ECU
Sides
UL Lafayette -16
Washington St -3
STATSYSTEMS SPORTS NCAACF REPORT
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 2nd 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** NCAA College Football Information ? Week #6 *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every week during the 2014-15 NCAA College Football season we will analyze all of your daily football action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of StatSystems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
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#305 C FLORIDA @ #306 HOUSTON
TV: 7:00 PM EST, ESPN
Line: Houston -3, Total: 52
Central Florida looks to get its offense in high gear when it opens American Athletic Conference play at Houston on Thursday evening. The Knights, who rank 117th out of 125 FBS teams in yards per contest, have struggled on the ground while introducing a first-year starter at quarterback. Central Florida must find a way into the end zone against Houston, which is averaging 31.5 points with a rushing attack that produces more than five yards per carry and put up 399 against UNLV last time out.
The Cougars are well-balanced, with two running backs totaling at least 196 yards and a pair of receivers with more than 220 yards in the first four contests. Central Florida quarterback Justin Holman has completed 60.7 percent of his passes with a talented group of receivers, but the Knights are averaging 2.6 yards per carry. Central Florida has won four consecutive conference openers and owns three straight victories over Houston, including a 19-14 thriller in 2013.
?ABOUT CENTRAL FLORIDA (1-2): Holman threw for more than 200 yards in the first two games, coming off the bench in the opener against Penn State, and went 6-of-11 for 145 in the 41-7 victory over Bethune-Cookman on Sept. 20. Breshad Perriman (eight catches, 206 yards) and J.J. Worton (nine, 150) are two of five major threats through the air. William Stanback gained 137 yards on the ground the last two weeks, and the Knights are 20th in the nation in rushing defense, averaging 102.3 yards allowed.
?ABOUT HOUSTON (2-2): Kenneth Farrow (271 yards) and Ryan Jackson (196) lead the rushing attack for the Cougars, who have run the ball 128 times and thrown it 158. Sophomore John O?Korn needs 37 yards to become the 11th Houston quarterback to record 4,000 in his career, but he is completing only 52.7 percent of his passes this season with six interceptions to go along with six touchdowns. O?Korn?s top two targets are Deontay Greenberry (18 receptions, 297 yards) and Daniel Spencer (21, 223).
?PREGAME NOTES: Houston's next victory will be the 400th in the program?s history, as it stands at 399-347-15.... Worton is four receiving yards shy of 2,000 in his career and fellow Knights WR Josh Reese is 84 away from becoming the fifth player on the roster with 1,000.... The Cougars have forced at least one turnover in 27 consecutive games, the second-longest current streak behind Louisiana-Monroe (30).... Central Florida is 1-9 versus the spread off a home win, and 2-10 ATS after playing a game at home over the last three seasons.... The Cougars are 31-15 against the spread in home games after one or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992, and 9-2 ATS after a game where they forced three or more turnovers over the last two seasons.
?KEY STATS
--UCF is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) against teams who force 2.5 or more turnovers/game on the season since 1992.
The average score was UCF 21.6, OPPONENT 35.2.
--UCF is 32-15 ATS (+15.5 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games since 1992.
The average score was UCF 27.9, OPPONENT 23.5.
--UCF is 16-5 UNDER (+10.5 Units) the 1rst half total after playing 2 straight non-conference games since 1992.
The average score was UCF 14.7, OPPONENT 10.2.
--HOUSTON is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was HOUSTON 34.7, OPPONENT 20.3.
--HOUSTON is 23-10 OVER (+12.0 Units) off a home win by 17 points or more since 1992.
The average score was HOUSTON 33.2, OPPONENT 32.5.
--HOUSTON is 10-1 UNDER (+8.9 Units) after gaining 300 or more rushing yards last game since 1992.
The average score was HOUSTON 23.9, OPPONENT 27.1.
--HOUSTON is 30-13 OVER (+15.7 Units) the 1rst half total in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
The average score was HOUSTON 15.6, OPPONENT 15.6.
?COACHING TRENDS
--GEORGE O'LEARY is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) in road games off a home blowout win by 28 points or more in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was O'LEARY 37.9, OPPONENT 19.5.
--GEORGE O'LEARY is 14-2 ATS (+11.8 Units) in road games after a win by 28 or more points in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was O'LEARY 36.1, OPPONENT 22.1.
--GEORGE O'LEARY is 8-26 ATS (-20.6 Units) against teams who force 2.5 or more turnovers/game on the season in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was O'LEARY 25.2, OPPONENT 30.9.
--GEORGE O'LEARY is 18-6 OVER (+11.4 Units) in road games after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers as the coach of UCF.
The average score was UCF 27.0, OPPONENT 32.5.
--GEORGE O'LEARY is 11-3 OVER (+7.7 Units) the 1rst half total in a road game where the first half total is between 25 and 26 as the coach of UCF.
The average score was UCF 13.0, OPPONENT 15.9.
?HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--UCF is 3-2 against the spread versus HOUSTON since 1992.
--UCF is 4-1 straight up against HOUSTON since 1992.
--4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992.
--UCF is 3-2 versus the first half line when playing against HOUSTON since 1992.
--3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.
--Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
?RECENT TRENDS
--UCF is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games on turf.
--UCF is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Thursday games.
--Over is 13-3 in UCF last 16 games in October.
--HOU is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games in October.
--HOU is 4-0 ATS in their L4 games following a bye week.
--Over is 6-1 in HOU last 7 Thursday games.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 48 times, while the favorite covered the spread 25 times. *EDGE against the spread =UCF. In past games, the underdog won the game straight up 39 times, while the favorite won the game straight up 35 times. 63 games went under the total, while 45 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the underdog covered first half line 44 times, while the favorite covered first half line 24 times. *No EDGE. 67 games went under first half total, while 38 games went over first half total. *EDGE against first half total =UNDER.
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#307 ARIZONA @ #308 OREGON
TV: 10:30 PM EST, ESPN
Line: Oregon -22.5, Total: 76
Two of the final three undefeated Pac-12 Conference teams meet Thursday night as Arizona visits fourth-ranked Oregon, which is looking to avenge last season?s 42-16 loss. Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota, who threw two interceptions in last season?s defeat, leads the Heisman Trophy race with 13 touchdowns and no interceptions while completing 74 percent of his passes through four games. Mariota should thrive against the Pac-12?s second-worst passing efficiency defense, but Arizona?s explosive offense has the weapons to keep pace.
Both teams are playing for the first time since September 20th, when the Wildcats used a Hail Mary pass from Anu Solomon to Austin Hill on the final play of the game to record a 49-45 win over California. Mariota was sacked seven times in the Ducks? 38-31 triumph at Washington State, but he passed for 329 yards and five touchdowns - including the game-winner with less than six minutes remaining. Arizona, which snapped its five-game losing streak against Oregon last season, has won three of its four contests this year by seven points or fewer.
?ABOUT ARIZONA (4-0, 1-0 Pac-12): Solomon, a redshirt freshman, overcame a slow start and completed 47-of-73 passes for a school-record 520 yards and five touchdowns against California. Wide receiver Cayleb Jones is an emerging star for the Wildcats? offense, which averages 405 yards and features freshman Nick Wilson - who ranks second in the Pac-12 in rushing yards (482) and yards per game (120). The defense allowed 573 yards against California, but linebacker Scooby Wright III has been a bright spot as he leads the Pac-12 with 12.8 tackles per game.
?ABOUT OREGON (4-0, 1-0 Pac-12): The bye week came at an opportune time for Oregon, which needed the extra rest to improve an offensive line that lost tackles Tyler Johnstone, Andre Yruretagoyena and Jake Fisher to leg injuries early in the season. The Ducks? defense allowed 436 passing yards against Washington State and will be tested again by the Wildcats, who are hoping to repeat last year?s effort as they were 6-for-6 inside the red zone. ?It?s a new year, and new teams, and I feel like both teams are better,? receiver Keanon Lowe told goducks.com. ?That being said, we remember vividly that feeling of going in Arizona and getting our butt whooped.?
?PREGAME NOTES: Mariota has 7,477 career passing yards and needs just 80 to move ahead of Kellen Clemens for third all-time at Oregon.... Washington State is seeking its first win in Eugene since posting a 55-16 victory in 2003.... All but seven of Oregon?s 51 victories since 2010 have been by more than 14 points.... Current Chicago Bears rookie Ka'Deem Carey had 206 rushing yards last year versus the Ducks as Arizona finished with 304 - the most Oregon has allowed since 2007.... The Ducks, 28-0 at home against unranked opponents since losing to Boise State on Sept. 20, 2008, won 49-0 in the teams' last matchup in Eugene in 2012.
?KEY STATS
--ARIZONA is 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) in road games after scoring 37 points or more last game since 1992.
The average score was ARIZONA 24.3, OPPONENT 30.7.
--ARIZONA is 3-13 against the 1rst half line (-11.3 Units) in road games after allowing 325 or more passing yards in their last game since 1992.
The average score was ARIZONA 7.6, OPPONENT 18.1.
--ARIZONA is 1-9 against the 1rst half line (-8.9 Units) in road games after allowing 525 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992.
The average score was ARIZONA 6.9, OPPONENT 20.2.
--ARIZONA is 0-8 against the 1rst half line (-8.8 Units) in road games after allowing 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game since 1992.
The average score was ARIZONA 4.4, OPPONENT 20.3.
--ARIZONA is 0-7 against the 1rst half line (-7.7 Units) after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ARIZONA 11.3, OPPONENT 24.3.
--OREGON is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) versus awful passing defenses - allowing 275 or more passing yards/game since 1992.
The average score was OREGON 46.5, OPPONENT 16.1.
--OREGON is 36-15 ATS (+19.5 Units) versus good passing teams averaging 8 or more passing yards/att. since 1992.
The average score was OREGON 34.6, OPPONENT 27.3.
--OREGON is 36-13 ATS (+21.7 Units) after 2 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers since 1992.
The average score was OREGON 40.1, OPPONENT 22.1.
--OREGON is 17-3 ATS (+13.7 Units) after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games since 1992.
The average score was OREGON 49.8, OPPONENT 22.3.
--OREGON is 7-0 UNDER (+7.0 Units) after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 3 consecutive games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was OREGON 35.4, OPPONENT 15.9.
--OREGON is 32-13 against the 1rst half line (+17.7 Units) in home games versus mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game since 1992.
The average score was OREGON 19.4, OPPONENT 10.8.
--OREGON is 8-0 against the 1rst half line (+8.0 Units) in home games versus awful passing defenses - allowing 275 or more passing yards/game since 1992.
The average score was OREGON 33.1, OPPONENT 2.0.
--OREGON is 8-0 OVER (+8.0 Units) the 1rst half total after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was OREGON 27.0, OPPONENT 15.5.
?COACHING TRENDS
--RICH RODRIGUEZ is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was RODRIGUEZ 28.3, OPPONENT 37.5.
--RICH RODRIGUEZ is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in road games versus incredible offensive teams - scoring 37 or more points/game in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was RODRIGUEZ 20.6, OPPONENT 41.5.
--RICH RODRIGUEZ is 12-3 OVER (+8.7 Units) after allowing 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was RODRIGUEZ 36.0, OPPONENT 29.5.
--RICH RODRIGUEZ is 17-6 UNDER (+10.4 Units) in road games versus mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was RODRIGUEZ 23.5, OPPONENT 27.4.
--RICH RODRIGUEZ is 4-17 against the 1rst half line (-14.7 Units) after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was RODRIGUEZ 14.8, OPPONENT 17.8.
--RICH RODRIGUEZ is 8-22 against the 1rst half line (-16.2 Units) versus excellent passing teams with a completion percentage of 62% or better in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was Rodriguez 12.7, OPPONENT 16.8.
?HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--OREGON is 12-9 against the spread versus ARIZONA since 1992.
--OREGON is 16-5 straight up against ARIZONA since 1992.
--9 of 18 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992.
--OREGON is 11-10 versus the first half line when playing against ARIZONA since 1992.
--12 of 17 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.
--Home team is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
?RECENT TRENDS
--ARIZ is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games.
--ARIZ is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in October.
--Over is 6-1 in ARIZ last 7 games in October.
--ORE is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games.
--ORE is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
--Under is 4-0 in ORE last 4 Thursday games.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 3 times, while the favorite covered the spread 2 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 4 times, while the underdog won straight up 1 times. 0 games went over the total, while 0 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 3 times, while the underdog covered first half line 2 times. *No EDGE. 0 games went over first half total, while 0 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
?SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play On - Home favorites of 12 to 17.5 versus the first half line (OREGON) - good team - outscoring opponents by 7 or more points/game against a good passing team - with a completion percentage of 58% or better, after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored.
(76-32 over the last 10 seasons.) (70.4%, +40.8 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 14.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 26.5, Opponent 8.1 (Average first half point differential = +18.4)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (23-13).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (44-20).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (134-75).
