PLAYBOOK
5★ BEST BET
BALTIMORE over Pittsburgh by 14
Don?t look now but both the Ravens and Steelers are main players in
the AFC Wild Card chase. Thanks to a 5-2 rebound from a devastating
0-4 start, Pittsburgh has pulled even with Baltimore to join three
other teams at 5-6. With it, this North division battle suddenly looms
large for both squads and accordingly our mean machine reports a
troublesome spot for Big Ben as sub .600 NFL road dogs off a SU
division road dog win are a measly 10-32 SU and 14-27-1 ATS since
1980 when facing a foe off a SUATS win. Adding to Pitt?s dilemma is
the fact that the Steelers themselves are 1-5 ATS in games off a SU
road dog division victory. In addition, the MIDWEEK ALERT does not
like the fact that the Steelers were outstatted in each of their last
two games, both SU underdog wins. Enter the Black Birds, knowing
that defending Super Bowl champions with a losing record during
the 2nd half of the season are a glitzy 14-3 ATS when not favored
by more than 3 points since 1988. Add to that the Ravens ?D? is once
again beginning to assert itself (held Jets to season low 220 yards last
week and the Bears to a 2nd-low 319 yards two games ago). Revenge
rears its ugly head here tonight when Baltimore improves to 5-0 SU
and 4-1 ATS home under Joe Flacco in double revenge-exact division
games. Toss in the Turkey Day home favorite stat outlined above in
the Lions contest and it appears the Steelers? goose is cooked here
tonight. The Clincher: The Ravens are 7-0 SUATS at home with a
losing record under John Harbaugh.
DETROIT over Green Bay by 10
If the Lions are at home and it?s a Thursday, it means only one thing ? it?s
Thanksgiving! And for the last nine years in a row it?s also meant a victory
for the visiting team as Detroit has been basted on Turkey Day, going
0-9 SU and 0-8-1 ATS since 2004. They have also taken it on the giblets
in this series with the Packers, going 1-14 SU and 3-12 ATS overall since
2006. However, with MVP QB Aaron Rodgers watching this one from the
sidelines, the dynamics in today?s game change dramatically. And with that,
the Lions look to regain their roar today knowing Thanksgiving Day home
favorites seeking revenge are a money-gobbling 14-1 ATS. In addition, the
MIDWEEK ALERT reports Detroit enters off a pair of SU favorite losses
despite winning the stats in both contests. In fact, the Lions are winning
the stats by an average 121 YPG since Game Seven of the season, and are
3-0-1 ATS in their last four games off back-to-back SU chalk losses. Given
Green Bay?s 1-7 SUATS mark as a visitor off a division game in this series in
games in which Detroit arrives off loss, it?s time to carve up this Butterball
and give thanks as a nine-year streak is about to come to an end today.
DALLAS over Oakland by 3
Yes, we?re aware that?s it?s Thanksgiving and the Cowboys have chewed
up and spit out losing teams on Turkey Day (11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS), but
we?re not biting. First of all, it should be noted they were in this identical
role last year when they choked on the wishbone in a 38-31 loss here to
the 4-6 Redskins. We avoided that Cowboy steak and we?ll do the same
today, noting that Dallas has been outgained in each of its last four games
? making them a ?leaking oil? favorite. And while we?re on the subject, with
additional ammo from the MIDWEEK ALERT, it?s noted the Cowboys are
being outgained a whopping -153 YPG since Game Seven of the season. All
of which brings the Raiders into this contest as a dog with both the better.
Playbook is leading tip sheet this year in the NFL thus far 65.7%, +11 wins.
