nolan puts in a great deal of effort in his selections and has an excellent understanding of the game and special situations.
whether he can hit 55 or 65, well, it depends on many factors, including time, state of mind, luck, you name it. all things considered, luck will affect 50% of some results over the long run, half for, half against. but when luck runs one way only, like it will, you will end up with either a spectacular season or a lousy one. i believe nolan's range is in that 55-65 percent, 55 being a below par season, and 65 the one we all want.
maybe he will jump in and expand on it, as he has before.
i read his reviews whenever i can, and sometimes will skip a game because of some key information or opinion he had that i lacked.
some people follow him blindly for the percentage and others balance his reasoning with their own. nolan, as well as most analysts, and myself, sometimes give clues on an analysis without realizing it, like ending an argument for team X with words like:
"if" team X is able to do blah blah, they should win this game handily, thus casting a big doubt on the selection, as opposed to:
team X "will" win this one handily because blah, blah. there is a huge difference in the confidence level.
also, nolan uses the "key number", where he will refuse to play an over or under if it hits say 37 instead of 37 1/2, or 3 instead of 2 1/2, etc. there was an inquiry about this a few days ago with the question: if it is no good at 37, why is it good at 37.5?
conclusion: nolan gives you plenty of info and good selections. it is up to you what you do with it. either way, it is a must read.
pep