TO DOGS THAT BARK:
Thanks for the question. It's a good one that will take me some time to answer (isn't that always the case?). So, here it goes.
I have not handicapped college football games seriously in about five years. I used to bet on the games all the time. During the 80s I bet lots more college football than pros. I still occasionally put down a $100 "fun bet" on the bowl games, but so far as making money at college football, it's just not my forte.
I suppose I could best answer your question by looking and pointing at a symphony orchestra. There are twenty people playing the violin and yet only one person is playing the harp. I don't know why, but I just prefer the harp to the violins. It's that simple. I prefer the pros to the coleges, which I find boring and morally inferior.
In terms of handicapping difficulty, I presume that the NFL comes "easier" to me (that's an oxymoron -- nothing in easy in sports handicapping) because I love it so much and spend so much time watching the games. My experience with the NFL goes back to childhood. I don't mean to brag, but I really do think I know as much about football as just about any middle-grade assistant NFL coach. I don't mean that in a conceited way, just that I am confident of my knowledge and abilities. I presume anyone that has watched ten-thousand games and spent twenty thousand man-hours reading and researching the past 30 years (I am 39) is going to pick up a few things. By the way, when I say "watching" I do NOT mean Melissa Stark and Bonnie Bernstein. I mean watching the offensive lines and the intracacies of the game (another huge pet-peeve of mine in that the NFL broadcasts are trying to introduce more sex-appeal -- which I find offensive).
I do not have this same confidence when it comes to college football. I trust that over time I could beat the game if I put my mind to it. But I just DO NOT HAVE TIME to concentrate on both the pros and the colleges -- in addtion to having a life, and playing poker, and doing all the other things I want to do. Watching 15 NFL games a week is enough for me (I try to watch every one). If I started watching the colleges too, I'd be a mental case and my wife would probably be out the door. That's probably something we can all identify wtih -- having to balance gambling with a real life. Further to that question, when I was working a real job way back when -- I only put in 40 hours a week. Now that I am gambling full-time -- I put in 60-70 hour weeks (sometimes more). So much for making an "easy living." The notion of watching and following colege football on top of what I'm doing makes me want to vomit.
Okay, now you really got me started.
Here's more:
One other thing I do not like about colleges is that KEY NUMBERS do not figure as much into the equation. In the pros, a TD is almost always worth 7 points. A FG is worth 3 points. 3, 7, 10 -- those are huge numbers. In colleges, the kids miss extra points, get kicks blocked, fumble more, and generally are less reliable when it comes to crossing KEY NUMBERS. You see final scores like 36-12, or 22-8 in the colleges.....but you never see such a score in the pros. 17-7, 17-10, 24-20 -- those are standard, consistent numbers with a fair amount of reliability (when it comes to figuring pointspreads and edges).
I may decide to bet a few games in the colleges this season. I'm probably going to coattail the picks of some of the handicappers out there at MadJacks (I prefer not to mention names right now) who post selections to the Message Forum. I also respect Swami's college football record and am contemplating riding his plays the full season. Honestly, I'm not sure yet. But one thing is for sure. The notion of getting involved in handicapping the NCAA full-time is just too much for me. The idea of looking at Iowa State playing Bowling Green in a Saturday afternoon game just makes my ****ing head want to explode. I just can't take it. So, I'll stick with the pros. "Man's got to know his limitiations," ya' know.
Of course, my views on this subject would not be complete without a political editorial. Frankly, I despise the NCAA and all the bullshit that goes on in these colege games. The NCAA is making a fortune off these poor kids and I want no piece of promoting a system that is corrupt to the core and supporting an institution that is about as ethical as the Mafia. Watching college football and listening to the NCAA and the universities parroting all the BS just turns me off. I swallow my morals and my pride enough in this business when I enter smokey cardrooms and sit down with people I don't particularly like to take their money (in poker) and watch and cheer for pro athletes who wouldn't piss on you if you were on fire. The idea of bowing to the NCAA and watching the debuchery of character and morals that those crooks promote is just too much for me to take. I won't do it! The only exception is the NCAA March Madness which has simply become too big for me to ignore. I need a shower and a bar of Lava after I watch those games.
Man o' man, I've ranted long enough.
Surely, you are now saying to yourself - "sorry I asked."
-- Nolan Dalla
[This message has been edited by Nolan Dalla (edited 08-22-2001).]
