Visionary:
Apologies, as this will have to be somewhat short. I am on a laptop (on the road again) and don't have all my notes in front of me. It's also not as easy to go into great detail (typing) on the laptop.
By no means is my methodology perfect. I subjectively weigh the information I have about the games, and try to ascribe a certain value to that information. When I see a line or total that I view is not consistent with my information (not just hype in the newspaper, but REAL information), I first try to find out why this is the case -- and then if several factors are in line, I go ahead and make the wager.
However, I am VERY cognizant of KEY NUMBERS. This is why football (especially the NFL) is the most beatable game in my view (I realize this is a minority opinion). When a number moves off of 3, 4, 7, or 10, I take notice. In fact, I probably over-react. Since only about 3-4 percent of games have a result where the half-point makes a difference on average, I am clearly over-reacting to this development. However, the method has served me well in years past, so I will stick with it, until it proves otherwise. Sort of like, if it 'aint broke, don't fix it (how's that for an analytical explanation?).
I think by indescriminately betting a game regardless of a line move is a BIG mistake. I mean a total blunder. A game that goes from -7 to -7.5 is like night and day to me. The stats may not bear out that the half-point is really that significant (assuming the other factors that makes you pick the favorite are correct), but I tend to avoid the propostion that a team may have to score TWICE instead of ONCE to cover that number. Obviously, 3-4 is the key area where line movement is the most significant. However another example, 5 to 5.5 would not faze me in the least. Neither would 1 to 2 (reasons are self-evident, I think).
I do realize there are other points of view on this subject. I just tend to weigh KEY NUMBERS are probably the most significant single factor in my handicapping.
Time to go ride the Maid of the Mist (Niagara Falls).
-- Nolan Dalla
