? for selkirk or anyone else

ssd

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Aug 2, 2000
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I bought a lot of Sirius 18+ months ago around $2.00 and then picked up more about a month ago @ $3.80. What are your ideas on the stock? Is it worth holding for a long run up. i know everyone is buying it right now. If I sell the old shares, I'll only get hit with 15% capital gains but if I dump the newer shares all, I'll be paying 30% on the profit.

Thanks for any insight. I bought it for a long term investment but could use some cash now.
 

Doughboy

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You could sell calls on your position and bring in extra money. I think personally it has gotten a little expensive.
 

selkirk

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SSD first of all congrats on picking some up, I do agree with Doughboy; "a little expensive".

Sirus is hoping to have 1 million subscribers by year end, XM has 3 million.

Sirus has lost over $500 million in the last twelve months.
-traded at the start of today at 150X revenue
it has a large float and growing debt.

if you can use the money I would take some or all of it off the table. If you want to keep some and see if it can make another run, then that is fine. Just have a stop loss in place on your remaining positon.

would take a gain on some of your position, especially since you state you have uses, for the money.
checked out the options, another way to play it, not bad, would have expected a higher premium on some of the calls, I mean the stock goes up and down 5% a day.

the question is how much can these satelites companies grow, and how fast. I do like the idea of that they are developing an IPOD like device so you could take your radio anywhere. this would add to the subscribers.

should note they are coming to Canada next year, as soon as CRTC gives approval. though know some Cdn.s who have them already. it costs $250 for a system for the car cdn. at least that is how much it would cost me.

believe it will go over big in cdn. I only have two stations that I can get at all times, and by next year will be a customer.

another item that worries me about these companies is how much they pay for certain properties. they have to sign up a lot of subscribers to pay for Howard Stern, and the NFL.

XM signed a deal with MLB, they estimated they would have to sign up 700,000 subscribers per year (for the life of the deal) to pay for it.


good luck with the stock, would rate it a sell/hold, (take most of your gains); but may if I were you may keep a small amount to see if it goes on a run.

thanks
selkirk
 

ssd

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Doughboy and Selkirk:
Thanks for the replys. As for put / calls, etc that is over my head. I deal with a broker and have an Ameritrade account I play with. I plan on selling the Sirius I have in the Amertirade account for cash and leaving the majority I have with the broker in play. I question XM's play with MLB but I think the Stern move was brillaint. He has 25 million listeners - if one-quarter or one-third move to Sirius it will be a huge jump in subscriptions for them and the NFL ticket is the biggest prize to have. I think Sirius has a bigger upside than XM. With most mahor car companies putting one of the two in as factory options, I think satelitte radio will become a mainstay in the culture, almost like having cable or a cellphone. I like it as a long-term play but if you think the stock will pull back in the immediately future, I would sell my holdings and pick it up later at a lower price.
Thanks for the help and all the help you guys provide in this forum.
 

worm44

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see my thread-however get out now--way over valued and while stern in his own way is brilliant I am wary of this stock at anything over $4 for the next 12-18 months
 
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