for those interested

[bean counter]

i bought a book a while back. the guy has predicted the whole season in advance. he simulated all the games a 1000 times and he only used the 22 starters from each team no backups. he said that gave him an avg team score and avg total points scored in each game. he says he takes those numbers and looks at historical matchups for the last 5 years. then he looks at basic trends like how they play on the road-home-back to back etc. then he looks at how durable the starters have been over their careers. last he looks at the weather factor what the weather was like on that game date during the last 20 years. from all this he came up with lines for all games. i will post them each week if folks are interested but remember you have to factor in injuries this was written before stringer died and baltimore lost their running back. only thing that sucks is this is the first year i have seen it so i dont know what to expect or how good the info is but it might be interesting to follow or get a starting point looking at the games. here is week one i will put the predicted lines vs. the opening lines from scoresandodds.sorry these are not in the nevada rotation order just how he did them in the book.
predict opening line his finals
chicago 33- 33-
baltimore -11- -10- balt 20-10

pitt 47 37-
jack -6- -4- jack 27-20

new eng -1 36- new eng 21-17
cincinn 40- pk

seattle -3- -5 seattle 28-17
clev 40- 38-

indy -1 44- indy 31-28
ny jets 47- -1

new orl 42 37-
buff -3 -1 buff 23-10

oakl -3- -1- oak 21-17
kc 38- 44

detroit 38- 41-
gbay -5 -5- gbay 21-17

carolina 45 46
minn -9- -9- minn 27-20

tbay -9- -9- tbay31-3
dall 37 35

atl 37 46
sf -7 -4 san fran 27-10

wash -4- 36- wash 24-13
sdiego 37- -2-

st louis 45 -4
philly -1 46 philly 23-21

miami 33- 35
tenn -6- -6- tenn 21-10

ny giants 44- 43
denver -7 -7 denver 27-12

well that is it. for those interested now this is how he sees the playoffs and super bowl going.

afc wildcard
indy 40
balt -6 final indy 31-27

new eng 45
denver -8- final denver 28-20

nfc wildcard
washington 40
san fran -2 final wash 20-14

detroit 41
philly -4 final philly 23-20

divisonal playoffs
afc
denver 42
miami -3 final miami 17-3

indy 42
tenn -6- final tenn 27-19

nfc
philly 45
st lou -6- final philly 34-28

wash 40
tbay -7 final tampa 34-10

conference finals
afc
miami
tenn the numbers are all screwed up i will have to write him to get the correction just noticed it but he has tenn and miami playing with tenn winning.

nfc
philly 31
tbay -7 final tbay 29-7

super bowl
tenn 45
tampa bay -2 final tampa bay 31-28
he actaully backed it up there is a ticket from a vegas sportsbook photcopied in the book he got tampa bay at 6-1 odds he played them for 100 to win 600. hope some people enjoy this info. good luck

nfc

[This message has been edited by bean counter (edited 09-02-2001).]

 

[Doctor Baseball]

Nice hard work you are doing man. I see that the lines are almost the same. By the way about the Tampa Bay ticket, I dont know the odds, but probably the correct way to go is Titans AFC champions, Sports Illustrated also puts them on the super bowl but versus Rams. Anyway I like San Francisco and SanDiego, what do you think?.

 

[bean counter]

jessy just want to make sure you know i am just putting what the book had the guy that wrote it did all the work. personally i like the titans myself i think this team most resembles baltimore of last year with a better qb. dont like the rams at all i am from near st louis and to me you are banking on a team that one bad play could have germaine or bulger as the starting qb to me it seems once a qb gets a concussion it is dangerous to count on them. i really dont think warner is the key to this team faulk is the main reason we won the superbowl 2 years ago and he is having knee problems so dont know if you can count on him. last but not least the defense is unproven so i cant pick this team just too many things against it. also i think the rams are to small they go for speed guys well to be fast you have to be small that is why i really dont like tampa to do anything. titans defense just pounds you and eddie george does the same. good luck

 

[bean counter]

sorry jessy now i really dont like the rams they traded germaine no i did not like him he was far away from doing good in this offense but what bothered me today is they let devin bush go due to cap problems. larry bowie was hurt friday and the rams have to pay him 220000 because he was hurt which means they let devin bush go to save money dont know if you saw but the rams secondary was banged up all preseason. germaine was going to make like 290000 so they trade him and sign jamie martin who the dolphins let go that is who they plan on having backup warner after he learns the offense. sorry a little pissed martz is a turd they signed wynn in the fourth round the kid made like a 200000 signing bonus and they let him go because martz dont like his work ethic what in the hell are they doing putting that much money into any receiver chances are they wont make the team anyway that is one position that is pretty solid. martz just bugs me the guy acts like they are so great only made the playoffs on a miracle last year dont think that is anything to toot your horn over. i hope philly knocks them down to earth they need it.

 

[bean counter]

sorry just putting back at the top