NEW: FOR THOSE THINKING A BET ON DETROIT TO WIN GAME TWO IS AUTOMATIC:
I bet Carolina to win the Stanley Cup series, getting +$550. I did not post the play here because I did not have a good year betting in the NHL. Interestingly enough, a close friend of mine offered some excellent analysis of the Game Two DET/CAR series. He sent me this in an e-mail. I'll post this here without further comment:
Listen to Barry Melrose and Buccigross *NOW*. "The Canes deserve to win the Cup" -- Melrose, on postgame. "They've made a believer
out of me now" -- Buccigross (as if the past three series were totally
meaningless).
Don't get me wrong. It's still a 7-game series, and I'm not counting the
cash yet. Detroit won't lay down now (and WON their series with Vancouver in Round 1, after losing BOTH games 1 and 2 on home ice). Bowman made some horrible line mismatch decisions last night, and there were at least two whiffs by Detroit on "gimme-goals" (Hull, Shanahan.... but there was one by Kapanen for Carolina). And I hope Stephen Walkom isn't the referree for future games (though with only 4 in the rotation, we're sure to see him again, even though this is his first SCF). Walkom calls way too many minor infractions (that holding call on Wesley early was just insane)... and made silly interference and holding calls in both directions last night. The 'Canes will NOT win the series if they have to kill 7 penalties a night. This is the FINALS, dammit! Let the players play! If there's an
obvious trip or hook, call it.
Check out the referee schedule before you do (typically announced on
nhl.com about 6 hours before the game). Of the four refs working the
finals (Walkom, Devorski, Koharksi and McCreary), Walkom and McCreary (the two from last night) are the two most likely to call excessive
penalties. Devorski is "hit or miss", and sometimes swallows the
whistle. Of the four, he's probably the best one in terms of "style that
favors the Canes". Koharski is reviled in Carolina, as he seems to have a
major bias against the 'Canes (his brother was often abused as a minor
league ref in the ECHL, when we had the Raleigh Icecaps -- same bias, must run in the family).
Detroit is likely to out stomping mad, while the 'Canes will not change
their game AT ALL. The 'Canes do REALLY well when they score first, and so-so when they don't but don't fall back more than a goal. Thus, the key may be to survive the first period with no score... and they won't do that
AGAIN if they give up that many penalties.
An individual game like game 2 may turn on the refs. If the 'Canes can
stay out of the box and survive the first period, it MAY be tough on the
Wings. (Remember, heavily favored Detroit LOST to the Devils, in FOUR
GAMES, in 1995, and the Devils then are VERY similar to the 'Canes now).
It's all going to depend on whether we can stay at full strength, or at
least have the penalties not tilt against them heavily.
I'd lay Detroit to win Game 2 ONLY if one of Walkom or Koharski are on the
ref team, and I'd lay LARGER if it is both of them. With that
combination, we're sure to head to the box often, and we won't stop 6 of 7
power plays next time.
I'd sit on the sidelines if it was Devorski and McCreary, as you'll get far
fewer penalties with them, which is advantage, Canes.
Mind you, I can think of a LOT of "left my whistle in the car" type refs
that I'd MUCH rather see working the finals than these four.... Kerry
Fraser, for one (the guy with perfect hair who got clocked in Wings/Avs
game 7), or Dan O'Halloran, both "let 'em play" kind of guys. Don van
Massenhoven is also like that.... SOMETIMES. You have to catch him on a
good day. Paul Stewart is OK as they go -- he hams it up with the fans
often, and is also nice to kids, tossing pucks over the glass at
intermissions for them, and as such, I fear he's sometimes a showman that
sometimes makes poor calls just to put the show on himself rather than the
players. I'd have liked to have seen Rob Schick, too, as he's also in the
style of "let the players decide it".
How's THAT for some detail analysis from someone who's seen enough games to know the refs by sight and name, as well as who chokes on the whistle and who doesn't? ;-) -- JW (North Carolina)
I bet Carolina to win the Stanley Cup series, getting +$550. I did not post the play here because I did not have a good year betting in the NHL. Interestingly enough, a close friend of mine offered some excellent analysis of the Game Two DET/CAR series. He sent me this in an e-mail. I'll post this here without further comment:
Listen to Barry Melrose and Buccigross *NOW*. "The Canes deserve to win the Cup" -- Melrose, on postgame. "They've made a believer
out of me now" -- Buccigross (as if the past three series were totally
meaningless).
Don't get me wrong. It's still a 7-game series, and I'm not counting the
cash yet. Detroit won't lay down now (and WON their series with Vancouver in Round 1, after losing BOTH games 1 and 2 on home ice). Bowman made some horrible line mismatch decisions last night, and there were at least two whiffs by Detroit on "gimme-goals" (Hull, Shanahan.... but there was one by Kapanen for Carolina). And I hope Stephen Walkom isn't the referree for future games (though with only 4 in the rotation, we're sure to see him again, even though this is his first SCF). Walkom calls way too many minor infractions (that holding call on Wesley early was just insane)... and made silly interference and holding calls in both directions last night. The 'Canes will NOT win the series if they have to kill 7 penalties a night. This is the FINALS, dammit! Let the players play! If there's an
obvious trip or hook, call it.
Check out the referee schedule before you do (typically announced on
nhl.com about 6 hours before the game). Of the four refs working the
finals (Walkom, Devorski, Koharksi and McCreary), Walkom and McCreary (the two from last night) are the two most likely to call excessive
penalties. Devorski is "hit or miss", and sometimes swallows the
whistle. Of the four, he's probably the best one in terms of "style that
favors the Canes". Koharski is reviled in Carolina, as he seems to have a
major bias against the 'Canes (his brother was often abused as a minor
league ref in the ECHL, when we had the Raleigh Icecaps -- same bias, must run in the family).
Detroit is likely to out stomping mad, while the 'Canes will not change
their game AT ALL. The 'Canes do REALLY well when they score first, and so-so when they don't but don't fall back more than a goal. Thus, the key may be to survive the first period with no score... and they won't do that
AGAIN if they give up that many penalties.
An individual game like game 2 may turn on the refs. If the 'Canes can
stay out of the box and survive the first period, it MAY be tough on the
Wings. (Remember, heavily favored Detroit LOST to the Devils, in FOUR
GAMES, in 1995, and the Devils then are VERY similar to the 'Canes now).
It's all going to depend on whether we can stay at full strength, or at
least have the penalties not tilt against them heavily.
I'd lay Detroit to win Game 2 ONLY if one of Walkom or Koharski are on the
ref team, and I'd lay LARGER if it is both of them. With that
combination, we're sure to head to the box often, and we won't stop 6 of 7
power plays next time.
I'd sit on the sidelines if it was Devorski and McCreary, as you'll get far
fewer penalties with them, which is advantage, Canes.
Mind you, I can think of a LOT of "left my whistle in the car" type refs
that I'd MUCH rather see working the finals than these four.... Kerry
Fraser, for one (the guy with perfect hair who got clocked in Wings/Avs
game 7), or Dan O'Halloran, both "let 'em play" kind of guys. Don van
Massenhoven is also like that.... SOMETIMES. You have to catch him on a
good day. Paul Stewart is OK as they go -- he hams it up with the fans
often, and is also nice to kids, tossing pucks over the glass at
intermissions for them, and as such, I fear he's sometimes a showman that
sometimes makes poor calls just to put the show on himself rather than the
players. I'd have liked to have seen Rob Schick, too, as he's also in the
style of "let the players decide it".
How's THAT for some detail analysis from someone who's seen enough games to know the refs by sight and name, as well as who chokes on the whistle and who doesn't? ;-) -- JW (North Carolina)
