Ford Championship at Doral

[Stanley]

Outright plays (1.5pts):

Retief Goosen to win 16/1 e.w. @ SkyBet, Stan James and BlueSq
Being beaten in the first round last week should serve Goosen in good stead for this week. It will surely have taken its toll on those players who got to the weekend. And while Goosen has only limited experience at Doral - 33rd in 2000 - he has finished in the top-10 in three of four PGA Tour strokeplay events this year and is a player who does play well on Bermuda greens. The Tour moves from the West Coast this week and so the ability (and the extra time) to adjust to the new putting surfaces should provide Goosen with a good chance of victory.

Bob Tway to win 66/1 e.w. @ Bet365
I wouldn't say Tway has anywhere near as much chance of winning this event, but he did come very close last year. He held sole lead after round 2, was tied with Hoch after round 3 and finished only two shots out of the playoff. Plus he did win the Canadian Open last year - his first win in eight seasons - so there is good reason to making it an each-way rather than place-only play. Having finished in the top-10 in the Nissan Open two weeks ago, he looks in good form ahead of this event and, like Goosen, he can have prepared early for this event as he lost in the first round last week. Available at half these odds elsewhere, Tway have proved in recent times that he can still compete at this level.

Stephen Ames to finish in the top-five 14/1 @ SkyBet
Much less confidence in Ames' ability to win on this Tour, so a definite place-only play here. He has yet to win a PGA Tour event, with his best finish being 2nd in the 2002 Players Championship. However, he does hold the course record here with a 2nd round 61 in 2000 when he finished 8th. That was also his finish in the Sony Open earlier this year and with top-25 finishes in three of four subsequent events, he looks to be a little overpriced on a course on which he has played well in the past.

 

[Stanley]

Matchup plays (1.5pts):

Stephen Ames to beat Steve Elkington -118 @ Expekt [3pts]
Elkington may have won this title on two occasions in the 1990s, but he has only finished ahead of Ames twice in the five times they have both played this event and he is not in particularly good form. He has a best finished of 32nd this year, which does not measure well against four top-25 finishes in five starts for Ames this year, who also leads the h2h standings 7-0-1 over the past year.

Briny Baird to beat Ricky Barnes -137 @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds
With no course experience and not even having played in Florida in a Tour event until this week, Barnes could struggle on around the Blue Monster. With plenty of course experience and two top-10s to his name this season, Baird is far more likely to be playing at the weekend.

Jay Haas to beat Heath Slocum -118 @ Expekt
Simple ploy of opposing last week's winner when it was a career-changing event. The fact that Haas has made the last eight cuts here, while Slocum has made only three of his last ten cuts in Florida is just a bonus.

Scott Verplank to beat Jesper Parnevik -111 @ Ladbrokes
Dependable versus anything but! Verplank has finished in the top-10 in four of his last five strokeplay events and while Parnevik has showed a very welcome return to form this season, he can still self-destruct very easily. He followed two rounds of 69 in his last tournament (Nissan Open) with a third round 83! The Swede has a good record on this course, but another top-20 performance from Verplank should be enough.

 

[Stanley]

Adding (1.5pts unless stated):

Jay Haas to beat Paul Azinger +100 @ NordicBet [4.5pts]
This really is quite a mismatch. Azinger did show some form in his first two starts of the year, but has shown very little consistency on this course, missing five of his last nine cuts at Doral. But the main statistic on this matchup is the 10-0-1 h2h lead that Haas holds over Azinger in the past 12 months.

Jeff Sluman to beat Steve Elkington +100 @ Five Dimes [3pts]
Oppose Elkington with Ames and with similar reasons will oppose him with Sluman. He has made the cut in nine of his last ten visits to Doral and has finished ahead of Elkington in four of the last five times. He is also far more consistent and holds a healthy 6-1-0 h2h lead over the past 12 months on the PGA Tour.

Bob Tway to beat Heath Slocum -130 @ WWTS
Straightforward selection. Opposed Slocum with dependable Haas as I am expecting a big letdown from Slocum after his maiden Tour win last week so all the more reason to oppose him with one of the outright selections.

 

[lostinamerica]

OUTRIGHTS:

David Toms(25/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ Bet365
It was here last year that Scott Hoch(66/1) delivered big for me. My reasoning was in my post from last year, and it included the following: " . . .(Doral will be) the first week in I don't know how long in which my first inclination has been to back Hoch instead of oppose him . . . He's had his moments in Florida, the premium on shotmaking at Doral should appeal to him and play to the strengths of his all around game, he was comfortably under par and looked polished (in a prominent role at La Costa), and there is no denying that plenty of stalwarts in the old guard have been putting up a pretty solid stand this year . . . " The futility of trying to repeat a call from last year didn't keep me from watching last week's action at La Costa in search of players hinting at something in much the same vein. From what I saw and heard, Toms rates a play and earns my money by a neck over Kenny Perry and by a length over John Huston. The comments I heard from Toms about his game were supportive of how he played in his matches and were favorably inclined regarding his expectations in Florida, but this wager probably enters the realm of slim and none given the further parallel of Toms healing from an injury while Hoch was unsettled about his health last year.

Briny Baird(66/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ Bet365
I've had Briny pegged for Doral since before time. While the signature Dick Wilson bunkering probably suggests otherwise based on his sand save stats, the cumulative evidence in Baird's career has never led me to visualize a clearer candidate.

Per-Ulrick Johansson(125/1) for 0.40* e.w. @ Bet365
Last year's profits from this event demand attempting at least a third play this week. I'll go with Per-Ulrik as a far out choice that first made my "under consideration" list straight away on an instinctive level, then rounded off that speculation with a few nuggets from my research that supported the cause.


MATCHUPS:

Franco(+100) over Cabrera (Tournament) for 1.5* @ 5dimes
Mickelson(-130) over Goosen (Tournament) for 1* @ 5dimes
Perry(+138) over Riley/Sluman (1st Round) for 1* @ Bet365

Now that that's done, I'll probably take a nap rather than tacking on an addendum about one pre-Augusta wave culminating in the match play championship while a new wave was starting to take shape from the first day in Tucson, and about discipline butting heads with opportunity while strategizing when it comes to lal2000's query about what plays get posted and how to budget your funds and pick your spots.


GL

 

[rrc]

1 play...

1 play...

Ames over Parnevik -115

 

[Spalding]

I am gonna tryBo Van Pelt -120 over Brandt Jobe . BVP has been hot as a pistol and is coming of a bye week!

Any thoughts?

 

[He Hate Me]

BVP to finish top 5 19-1, signed up already. I like him top 5 at Augusta as well, top 5 every week for that matter. Folks will catch on to him when he wins one, which wont be long.

 

[lal2000]

Outrights (.75 units e.w.)

F Funk ? 100/1 @ SkyBet
T Clark ? 50/1 @ Stan James
H Kuehne ? 100/1 @ Victor Chandler
P U Johansson -150/1 @ Victor Chandler
B Langer ? 150/1 @ Sporting Odds
H Frazer - 50/1 @ Sporting Odds
B Glasson ? 125/1 @ SkyBet125-1

Also interested in Fasth, Begay, Leonard & Huston.

I agree with LIA on P-U Johansson - surprised you couldn't get a better price - picked him up Monday night @ 150/1 on Chandlers - also available from StanleyBet.

Also like Toms but have used him in a number of doubles.

Good Luck!

 

[lostinamerica]

In-Running:

Chris Smith(+650)(1/4 for Top 4) for 0.50* e.w. @ Bet365

I would prefer the luxury of making this wager after viewing some of the television coverage. Nevertheless, a review of my dumpster has me believing the pieces are in place for a long overdue spot in a contending role.

GL


**********************************************

1 07/03/2004 Ford Championship at Doral
(To Win Outright) Skip Kendall
+12500 5 places 1/4 odds To Run
Unit Risk: 1.25 EW Risk: 2.50 Returns:
2 07/03/2004 Ford Championship at Doral
(To Win Outright) Chris Smith
+12500 5 places 1/4 odds To Run
Unit Risk: 1.00 EW Risk: 2.00 Returns:
3 07/03/2004 Ford Championship at Doral
(To Win Outright) Bo Van Pelt
+8000 5 places 1/4 odds To Run
Unit Risk: 1.00 EW Risk: 2.00 Returns:
4 07/03/2004 Ford Championship at Doral
(To Win Outright) Nick Price
+5000 5 places 1/4 odds To Run
Risk: 1.00 To Win: 50.00 Returns:
5 07/03/2004 Ford Championship at Doral
(To Win Outright) Tim Clark
+5000 5 places 1/4 odds To Run
Unit Risk: 1.00 EW Risk: 2.00 Returns:
6 07/03/2004 Ford Championship at Doral
(To Win Outright) John Huston
+4000 5 places 1/4 odds To Run
Unit Risk: 2.50 EW Risk: 5.00 Returns:
7 07/03/2004 Ford Championship at Doral
(To Win Outright) Stewart Cink
+3300 5 places 1/4 odds To Run
Risk: 1.50 To Win: 49.50 Returns:
8 07/03/2004 Ford Championship at Doral
(To Win Outright) Kenny Perry
+2200 5 places 1/4 odds To Run
Risk: 1.00 To Win: 22.00 Returns:

 

[veride]

2nd round

Smith Chris over Price Nick and Janzen Lee --> 3.05 Expekt, 3,00 Centrebet

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Got a couple of dogs I like in 2nd rd @ 5Dimes

Ames over Price and Zinger over Funk

Price who used to be one of my premier value place players has slipped into a real putting funk since tail end of last year and has been on fade list this year till he turns things around. Ave almost 2 putts a green last tourney. Had only 26 yesterday and still only shot par. Despite short year of stats Ames enjoys almost 3.5 stroke (before cut ave) adv on Price and tail end of last year just as bad.

Fading Funk for one reason-Wind-with 20mph projected today.
Common knowledge of Zingers prowess in wind but not so common is Funks dislike for it. While usually being 1st in fairways hit his accuracy regressed to 57% (49th) yesterday--which is not good when your a short hitter. Score (-1) was aided by 26 putts yesterday which will be hard to repeat.

Lots of changes in books early this year--most bad.

Appears 5Dimes is removing place only from Beards and look for them to do same wish Bush--however they refuse to answer any queries on such. (have sent 3 emails-no response)

Boyles has not had any Place only option last 2 weeks. Appears they think paying a (hypothetical)1/8 place on E/W is more advantageous if they can get by with it---not with my money--I'll give em one more week an get out of dodge.

Wsex took down parlay option on 1/2 stroke lines this week so far. Maybe just one week thing as it has been before--we'll see.

 

[smoothie]

. . .

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

03/05/04 STEPHEN AMES (2ND RND) -105 NICK PRICE (2ND RND) $52.50 $50.00 W $102.50 $50.00


03/05/04 PAUL AZINGER (2ND RND) -110 FRED FUNK (2ND RND) $55.00 $50.00 L $0.00 ($55.00)

Those were the lines Smoothie

The wind dropped about 1/3 in afternoon,which is quite unusual but still shoud have been enough on Zinger/Funk

been finding some clinkers at some smaller books,
one had Goose @ -117 vs C Parry for 72 holes

 

[lostinamerica]

SATURDAY:

Cejka(-1/2)(-125) over Perks for 1* @ 5dimes
This is awfully close to the lead for Perks to get away with his usual all the way to the clubhouse.

GL

 

[sports student]

4th round at Bowmans

Ames -122 over Gamez

besides being the better player overall Ames is averaging 6 strokes better than Gamez in the 4th round this year

 

[lostinamerica]

SUNDAY:

Toms(-127) over Choi for 1* @ 5dimes

Just an observation: At the start of the week, Montgomerie didn't have that safety shot buttoned up, and I was wishing he was as scrappy as Westwood. While still approaching the crest of this wave, the timing of playing with Woods and Els was 100% positive this week. The anxious quotient was dialed up on Saturday, but Monty was definitely scrappy, wanting to play his next shot from wherever the last one ended up. Maybe humbled, at least for the moment? By Sunday, there was evidence he was gaining that confident range with his approaches . . . Miss the Masters, and he'll almost have a U.S. Open portfloio. Maybe Mickelson can stop him. LOL. Real loud.

GL

 

[Stanley]

Outrights - Final update: 1-2; -0.75pts

Goosen 3rd
Tway mc
Ames 27th

Another close shave and another place payout, but not from a win. Goosen finished a shot outside the playoff and did have chances on the final nine holes to make the difference as he had when leading the event after 36 holes. He wouldn't have beaten Parry in the playoff, but at least there were chances for Goosen and Ames during the event to make this a lot more profitable.

Matchups - Final update: 5-2-0; +9.78pts

Ames/Elkington WON by 11
Baird/Barnes WON by 5
Haas/Slocum LOST by 4
Verplank/Parnevik WON by 9
Haas/Azinger WON by 2
Sluman/Elkington WON by 9
Tway/Slocum LOST by 4

Good return to ensure a profitable event and some semblance of last year's form with these types of plays.

PGA Tour ytd
Outrights: 4-23; -27.35pts
Matchups: 25-26; -16.89pts

All Tours ytd
Outrights: 13-71; -20.47pts
Matchups: 87-76; -17.56pts