Ford Open Kooyonga

[Ian]

Two players to keep an eye on this week with VERY good records in this event the last 4 times this event has taken place
O'Malley 3rd,T11th,T7th and T3rd FORGET O'MALLEY HE'S PLAYING IN WORLD CUP THIS WEEK

Parry 1st,T2nd,T3rd and T6th
Slightly wary of Parry having been disqualified for the first time in his career last week and being defending champion but both should do well this week and will be good to follow in matchups, it would not be the greatest surprise to see a lot of books pair the two together
Back later with one "in form" player to oppose if he plays who is worth opposing if he appears in matchups and especially in 3rd and 4th round bets if he makes the cut.

[This message has been edited by Ian (edited 12-04-2000).]

 

[Ian]

One match bet
Parry over Leaney -125 Firststake
Parry for the good course record he has,he beat Leaney by 15 shots last year and by 1 the year before.More crucially Leaney played all 6 rounds at the PGA tour qualifying and failed to win his card and within 48 hours (due to the time differences) is teeing off in Australia I expect him to be tired and disappointed and well worth opposing

 

[Stanley]

My preview:

Final event of the year and as a result of few of the bigger names are absent this week. Allenby, Appleby and Norman have had enough and O'Malley is in Argentina for the World Cup. Still some decent names left though everyone seems to have gone overboard on Baddeley. Good finishes in the last two weeks and in the last two Ford Opens, but surely he is not worth a single figure price! DAS are the only ones to offer anyone else (Parry) as favorite for this event.

The course is not very long, but tree-lined fairways dictate that accuracy is important this week. The greens as ever on the Australasian Tour are typically hard and fast. Much will depend on the weather this week; typically the wind blows on this Adelaide course and par is a good score. Last year it did not and Parry won with a very low score; but it was still the same type of player who fared well: accurate and good in wind. Parry & O'Malley fit that bill exactly.

My top-two ranked players this week are Craig Parry and Paul Gow, while the third outright pick is Scott Laycock. Parry is the defending champion and had finished 3rd, then 2nd prior to winning last year. He was also an outright pick last week and played well, but not as well as Greg Norman thought he had! According to the reports, he was not that flustered about that disqualification; maybe he already had defending this title on his mind. The more the wind blows, the better will be his chances.

Paul Gow has not played this event since 1997, but he has been in excellent form of late: 2nd after the 1st round of the Johnnie Walker and 1st after the 2nd round of the Australian Open before falling away. He secured a more consistent 25th place last week and in a weakened field looks to have a better chance than most to add to his victory in the Canon Challenge earlier in the year. The mild outsider is Scott Laycock who has had two top-30 finishes in the last stagings of this event, but the real factor here is his current form. He lead the Australian Open for the 2nd & 3rd rounds before falling back to 4th, but then came back in style last week at the PGA with opening rounds of 69 and 70 to again lie in the top-5 before a 78 on Saturday ended his hopes. Having restored some pride on Sunday, he could once again be a real challenger this week, though hopefully on Sunday this time!

Outright plays:

Craig Parry to win e/w 14/1 @ William Hill
Paul Gow to win e/w 22/1 @ William Hill
Scott Laycock to win e/w 33/1 @ William Hill, though available generally at this price.

Will have 72-hole matchup plays tomorrow morning. Need 10 units this week to finally reach that 200-unit goal for the season

 

[Ian]

Stan, AV2
Ogle has been put up in several match bets yet he withdrew after one round last week. Anyone know if he is injured?

 

[Stanley]

He was originally entered for this event but has withdrawn

 

[Ian]

Cheers Stan
Don't know if you have looked at Alphabet recently but they have got a good range of matchups on this weeks event 7% tax bit of a drawback but you might spot something you like

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Will take roll of cheerleader in this event.
Would like to see 200 unit barrier broken,go get em Stan.

 

[Stanley]

Hadn't looked at Alpha Bet before now, though had found Parry 16/1 & Laycock 40/1 @ Sunderlands who pay 1/4 odds on first five places, but then there's the 7% tax as well

Not really a viable site for posting plays here with.

Of Alpha Bet's offerings, would favor Laycock over Conran, McWhinney over Kuchar and Tait over Long, but none for more than a single unit. Have proper plays up in a few minutes

 

[Stanley]

72-holes plays:

Scott Laycock to beat Steven Conran -125 @ First Stake
Expecting a rebound from Conran after last weekend's tension of playing in the final pairing and pushing Allenby so hard; with course experience an edge, Laycock should hopefully be a challenger this week and beat Conran in the process

Peter Lonard to beat Scott Gardiner -125 @ First Stake [2 units]
Consistency, experience and good course form point to Lonard in this matchup. Gardiner finished 4th last week, but had played poorly previously and missed the cut here last year

Paul Gow to beat Brett Rumford -111 @ First Stake [3 units]
Rumford missed the cut as an outright play last week and hasn't looked the player that took this Tour by storm 12 months ago; Gow has looked more impressive lately and his much straighter driving will be rewarded this week

Bradley King to beat Matt Kuchar -111 @ First Stake
OK, so King has missed the last two cuts on this course and has a best of 37th in the three Tour events so far, but I can't help opposing Kuchar! I don't know why he opened his pro career in Australia and despite a promising 1st round in the Australian Open, he hasn't looked particularly good; will have home on his mind this week

Michael Long to beat Matt Kuchar -118 @ Centrebet
As above, even though Long has just arrived back from a failed PGA Tour qualifying attempt. He has played on this course before and is already back home for Christmas, with a break after this event I think he will overcome the fatigue factor sufficiently to beat Kuchar


Cheers DTB. Now they have some matchups available for the EMC World Cup, I'll have a look at those to try and get those 10 units

 

[Ian]

Stan
I mentioned a player to oppose here this week in my first posting, I don't suppose you have seen any match bets with Wayne Smith in them?
He is quoted in the 1st round tee times but a lot of bookies have even left him out of their lists altogether.
He followed 2 good performances with a missed cut last week but crucially he has made the cut here in each of the last 2 years and has followed this with rounds of 75-76-80-78 in the final 2 rounds so he could well be worth opposing in the 3rd and 4th round (though not by me of course over 18 holes)

 

[Stanley]

Haven't seen one Ian

Mind you, Smith was not on the original list of entries for this event - I presume he was a late entry because he missed last week's cut.

 

[Ian]

Ogle HAS teed off although he is playing injured
You can still bet +100 Tait over Ogle at Firststake.com if you are quick Their prices are still up

 

[Stanley]

O'Hern has, but Ogle has not - at least according the PGA Tour of Australasia site

 

[Ian]

Well I'm confused the initial statement on the Pga site said he had yet there is no mention of him on the scorecard
Be nice if he merely hit one shot off the tee for old times sake
Chalmers has started badly +3 after 5 unfortunately he is paired with Scott with Firststake who is 2 over
I cannot believe they are still taking bets

 

[Ian]

Fairly happy with Parry leading Leaney by 7 after 1st round

Took a few other bets to small stakes as Firststake left their match bets up til 3 hours after tee off
Tait +100 over Ogle If anyone knows if he actully hit a shot please let me know
Scott -111 over Chalmers was 3 shots up at time
Expect both to be voided but you never know

 

[Stanley]

1st round update:

No 1st round plays and the 72-hole plays are evenly split 2-2-1. Laycock leads Conran by one, Lonard leads Gardiner by five, Gow trails Rumford by four, as does King to Kuchar, while Long and Kuchar are tied. Encouraging start for the outright plays with Parry in 3rd place and Laycock one shot further back in 10th place; Gow is 37th, three shots further back.

2nd round plays:

Richard Lee to beat Ed Stedman +100 @ DAS
Nick O'Hern to beat Adam Scott -105 @ DAS [2 units]

 

[Ian]

Bizarrely Firststake again still have their outright book open 3 hours after tee off
I am not going to place any more bets after the off. (there is a limit to how many bets might be voided in 1 week although they haven't done so on yesterdays yet)
But those of you who fancy Lonard he is now 1 shot off the lead and is still
25-1

 

[Stanley]

2nd round update: 1-1-0 and +1.00 units

Split the day's plays, but won the two-unit play to make a profit on the day

O'Hern edged out Scott by one, while Lee lost by two to Stedman. Of the 72-hole plays, just one is decided at the cut and it is a loss. Brad King went out in three-under-par, but then had a triple-bogey on the 10th

Par from that point on and he missed the cut by one, losing by four to Kuchar in the process. The four other plays are split: Laycock/Conran 7up; Lonard/Gardiner 10 up; Gow/Rumford 6 down; Long/Kuchar 3 down. The outright plays remain promising with Laycock 2nd, Parry 8th and Gow 31st after 36 holes.


Ian, you're probably right. Too many voided bets in one week and you be in danger of losing a valuable out

 

[Ian]

Parry leads Leaney by 5
Scott leads Chalmers by 5

That 25-1 about Lonard looks a bit bigger now but if he was to win the event I am sure they would look into the timing of the bet

Wayne Smith made the cut if you see him in any bets over the weekend I would seriously consider opposing him

 

[Stanley]

3rd round play:

David Gleeson to beat Kurt Linde -120 @ DAS

Might have more later when Centrebet release two-ball lines. Nothing on Wayne Smith & don't expect two-ball lines featuring him given his lowly leaderboard position.