Formula Is W-6 L-2 In Playoffs. Now This Weeks Picks!

[SMOKE JENSEN]

MY FORMULA SHOWS THAT THE RAMS EITHER BY OFFENSE OR DEFENSE JUST SCORE POINTS. I USE A DIFFERENT WAY OF BREAKING DOWN TIME OF POSS. ITS CALLED PTS PER MIN. EVERYTHING I USE IS BROKE DOWN IN TO HOME AND AWAY STATS. THE RAMS AT HOME SCORE A POINT EVERY .834 MIN THEY HAVE THE BALL. PHILLY ON THE OTHER HAND ON THE ROAD SCORES A PT EVERY 1.952 MIN THEY HAVE THE BALL.AS YOU CAN SEE THIS IS A VERY WIDE MARGIN. MY NUMBERS ALSO PREDICT THE RAMS GETTING 3 TURN OVERS TO THE EAGLES GETTING 1. BELIEVE THE RAMS DEFENSE WILL HOLD EAGLES OFFENSE IN CHECK. DON'T BELIEVE YOU CAN GAUGE MUCH ON THAT FIRST GAME THEY PLAYED. THE FIRST WEEK OF THE SEASON MOST DEFENSES ARE AHEAD OF THE OFFENSES. AND IT WAS NOT AT ST. LOUIS. BLITZ OR NOT THE RAMS WILL SCORE AT HOME. THEY HAVE A 10.18 YPP AT HOME. THE BEST ON THIS STAT IN THE NFL. BELIEVE TOO MUCH TALK ON WHAT THE EAGLES DEFENSE IS GOING TO DO TO THE RAMS. I THINK WHAT WILL TURN OUT TO BE IMPORTANT. AND WHAT IS BEING OVER LOOKED IS, WHAT WILL THE RAMS FAST DEFENSE DO TO PHILLY'S AVERAGE OFFENSE. ALSO LOOK FOR A FEW MISDIRECTION PLAYS FROM THE RAMS ON OFFENSE. THEY WILL LOOK TO EXPLOIT AN AGRRESIVE FLOW TO THE BALL DEFENSE THE EAGLES HAVE. LIKE THE BEARS DID ON THAT REVERSE.

FORMULA SAYS:
RAMS- 41
PHILLY-14

P.S.- PLAYED THIS EARLY IN WEEK AND BOUGHT A POINT DOWN TO -10. BELIEVE THIS IS AS CLOSE AS PHILLY WILL COME AT THE WORST.








my formula has pitt controlling the time of poss. also has pitt getting the most turn overs and out rushing the pats. while pats offensive ypp is good at home over the last few games at 12.78. its a different story on the road. where they only sport a 18.3 ypp. the pats also do not create as many turn overs on the road as at home.they also rush better at home and defend against the rush better home than on the road . pitt does all of the above better at home than on the road. i believe pitt shuts down the run and puts heavy pressure on brady. pats do not have game breaking wide outs either to make up for the lack of a running attack. they might hang at first on emotion with pitt. but believe pitt pulls away easy in the end. stewart mobility is always a problem. and will be here also.

formula says:
PITT-26
PATS-13

p.s. played this early in the week and bought it down to -7.

 

[edludes]

Phila's D

Phila's D

That is an extremely bold prediction considering the fact that Phila's defense hasn't given up more than 24 points in 33 straight games,four total touchdowns combined against Reid/Robinson defenses in four playoff games and that Philadelphia is a very proficient blitzing and coverage team facing an admittedly great qb who happens to have with VERY sore ribs.It hurts to sneeze when your ribs hurt like Kurts do now,and I'm not saying he won't do it this time,but Warner has never "taken the needle"ie pain killing injection(s) before,and he's gonna be on the hard astro turf with someone big and ornery rolling around on top of him early and often if the Eagles succeed with their defensive game plan.Who's Kurts backup anyway?Also,when a team scores more than 30,covers and goes over 3 weeks in a row like the Rams have in scoring 118 points in their last three,the percentage play is normally to go against them and play the under.( I'll admit the Rams have singlehandedly beaten this theory as many times as the rest of the league put together alltime, so I normally won't play it against them.)GL either way

 

[SMOKE JENSEN]

the prediction is based upon my formula's predicted outcome of the game when the required stats are entered into it. sometimes at the end of the game when i look back at the final stats. it's almost like it wrote the script for the game. as its so close to what transpired in the game. an example is the pitt/balt game, the ne/oak game last week. of course sometimes it falls on its face. example:the philly/chicago game. i should have took in account the youngness of the bear team. of course the formula cannot take into consideration these facts. as it cannot take into consideration an injury. that is left up to me to judge how it will affect the outcome. having said that, this is what i'm basing my thoughts on the game on.

1-the prediction of my formula. which has served me well.

2-i strongly believe that philly is too dependant on mcnabb. they have an average offense that can be shut down. example:
wash-13 philly-3 example: san fran-13 philly-3 example: oak-20 philly-10.

3- i think too much is being talked about what philly defense is going to do to the rams offense. a prolific offense that is not dependant on just warner. but that has many options and gamebreakers on it. i think what is being overlooked is what is the rams defense going to do to philly's average offense. an offense that is very dependant on mcnabb having not just a good game but a great game. i don't believe that good will be enough to stay close. i believe the rams have the team speed on defense to control him.

4. special teams. the rams have gamebreakers on punt and kick off teams that can at any time, either score or put the rams on a very short field to score from.

5. crowd noise. will make changing plays at the line difficult for mcnabb.

6. lack of gamebreaking wideouts for philly. again, too much on mcnabbs shoulders.

7. believe that the rams will put in shorter drops for warner and more quick dump off to faulk to protect warner.

and of course with all my formulas predictions and all my opions. i could be dead wrong. that's why i'm glad the formula picked both home teams sunday. i feel like a split of the two games is probable at the worst. and of course as gamblers, i'm sure the majority of us will take that. thank you edludes. and goodluck to you.
SMOKE

 

[edludes]

Its acknowledged that all of us take turns being wrong in this business,a good capper misses somewhere in the neighborhood of 4 out of 10,and that doesn't make him or her the public,just wrong that day.This week you and I have all the possibilities covered.The slightest incorrect evaluation of any one of a number of factors turns the whole thing upside down.Thats the beauty of 2nd half bets for those times that one sees clearly whats happening.GL either way SMOKE

 

[Sgt. Sorry]

Smoky, Please do not take this the wrong way but if your system shows a big point spread. Why do you need to buy points?

 

[SMOKE JENSEN]

no offense taken sgt. sorry. while the formula does predict a 13pt win for pitt & a 27 pt win for st. louis. it by no means calls the games it hits exactly to the projected score it gives. it just says that a certain team should cover the vegas line. i do not play unless there is a 5 point or more difference between tne formulas line and the vegas line. as you can see these two games fall under that criteria.

when i first approached the pitt game. the line was -8. if this was the regular season with many more games to play. i would have took pitt right away at -8. and the same way with rams at -11. but i decided with only 3 games left counting the super bowl. i decided to pay the extra vig in order to give myself as many advantages as i could. at -7 with pitt, i leave myself the option of a push if pitt should win by just 7. as you know a lot more games are won in football by 7 than by 9. and with the rams. i wanted a 10 pt. spread to not cost me the wager. just my way of thinking.while the formula has been successful for me. it is by no means a lock. hope this explains things. like i said, just my way of thinking.
good luck to you in your wagers.

SMOKE

 

[SMOKE JENSEN]

LET THE GAMES BEGIN!

LET THE GAMES BEGIN!

THANK YOU TO EVERBODY,

for all the great info and write ups concerning todays games. while i see i have many with me on my play with pittsburg. i believe i'm on an island almost by myself with the ram pick. and the waters are full of philly backers around the island. hope i can get that first one behind me. that's always nice. we should have some exciting football today. my wife has promised me a special meal today and next sunday. between that and NFL playoff football. who could ask for more.

SMOKE

 

[fatdaddycool]

just so you know

just so you know

I played both those games thursday the same way...I like em both...so I will see you on the island at game time

 

[SMOKE JENSEN]

I'LL BRING THE DRINKS AND THE LEFTOVERS FATDADDYCOOL!:drinky:

 

[djv]

Smoke reason your on that island. Is not because of your hard work that tells you what is right way to go. Many folks I believe by just taking the home teams went 7 & 1 with Chigo only loss. So A few are thinking HT can't keep winning. It's not that easy. That and I believe Many feel St Lou just will not be as lucky this week with Favre back home. Not to pick on my QB But he was terriable. In fact any team that has 8 turn overs is nuts. Believe that is reason many say Phily will cover. GL