Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, February 2

[Scrapman]

VERY LONG THREAD probaly will have to edit many posts due to tons of gibberish

HERE goes DUNKEL INDEX

NFL

Seattle vs. Denver
In Super Bowl XLVIII, the Seahawks face a Broncos team that is 15-2 ATS in its last 17 games when playing with 2 weeks of rest. Denver is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Broncos favored by 5. Dunkel Pick: Denver (-2 1/2)

Game 101-102: Seattle vs. Denver (6:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 142.278; Denver 147.399
Dunkel Line: Denver by 5; 44
Vegas Line: Denver by 2 1/2; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-2 1/2); Under


Wunderdog

Highest-Scoring Half
Play: 2nd + OT -135

Once again we look to take advantage of an oddsmakers error in a prop bet on which they have miscalculated. Which half of football games sees more scoring? So far this season, we have seen a virtual dead-heat with 23.3 points being scored on average in the first half and 23.6 scored in the second half of games. But we need to dig deeper. In 47 Super Bowls, the average score for the first and second halves, respectively, has been 21.49 and 24.32.

So we see that the second half average score is 13% higher. Excluding the push in 2012, the second half has been the highest scoring half in 29 of 46 Super Bowls (63%). Fair odds on a 63% bet are -170. But, it gets better.

Lets look at how things have changed over the years. The discrepancy has become more pronounced. In the last 23 years, the scoring has been as follows: First half = 22.31, Second half = 28.18. That's a 26% difference in points! In the last 16 years, the second half has been the highest scoring half 12 times out of 14 years (85.7%). And, that includes a fluke pick-6 three years ago in the first quarter. Without that, we might have seen the 13 out 14 years that the 2nd half has outscored the first half. So, -135 odds on this bet provides a lot of value.

SPORTS WAGERS

Seattle +108 over DENVER

Roughly about six weeks ago, books were putting out a Super Bowl line that featured the NFC versus the AFC, regardless of the matchup. This wasn?t a random number either, as the oddsmakers had to consider every possible Super Bowl matchup and what they came up with was the NFC as a 2?-point choice regardless of the matchup.

Surely at that point, a Seattle/Denver Super Bowl was a distinct possibility that certainly was considered when they posted that advanced line. Now, we can break down this game like anyone else but that would just be redundant, as we all know it?ll come down to Seattle?s defense versus Denver?s offense. That said, we?re always looking to play the side that offers up the most value and when you consider that just a few weeks ago, the NFC was a 2?-point favorite over the AFC, our choice isn?t a difficult one.


FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
The betting market loves offense and they love Peyton Manning. Make no mistake. This is Manning's Super Bowl as far as the media is concerned. He will embody the success or failure by the Broncos. He's the default MVP unless someone else does something really notable. He deserves it too, as watching Manning run an offense, especially when you have money on him, is one of the most enjoyable and compelling spectacles in sports.

No QB in the history of the NFL has ever had as much presence, knowledge or ability to instantly recognize what the defense is bringing as Peyton Manning. He is the master of the quick read and perhaps the toughest quarterback to confuse in the NFL. However, this is also going to be the coldest Super Bowl ever and that has to favor the Seahawks. It?ll favor the Seahawks even more if there are gusty winds.


Let?s not forget that the Broncos defense is pure garbage. Week after week, they were torched but their league-leading offense masked their deficiencies. They Broncos surrendered 51 points to Dallas, 39 to Indy, 28 to K.C., 28 to Tennessee and 34 to New England. That?s just five games and Seahawks didn?t give up that many points in combined in their final 13 games of the year including playoffs.


When we look at the schedules of these teams throughout the year, what we see is a Broncos team that had it rather easy. Their best win was against New England in the AFC Championship? Kansas City? Truthfully, the Broncos played weakling after weakling that included games against Oakland (twice) Baltimore, the Giants, Jacksonville, Washington, Houston, Tennessee and Philadelphia. Of course Manning is going to put up big numbers against that group. The Broncos toughest games this year were against Dallas, Indy, New England and Kansas City. They lost to the Patriots in the regular season, they lost to both Dallas and Indy and they defeated K.C both times, by 10 and 7 points respectively. Meanwhile, the Seahawks played San Fran three times, New Orleans twice and Carolina once. They went 4-1 in those games with only loss occurring in San Fran by two points.


Seattle is the 16th team to appear in the Super Bowl as the squad that allowed the fewest points during the regular season. The previous 15 that accomplished the same feat are 12-3 in the championship game. Peyton Manning led the NFL in passing. A regular season passing leader has NEVER won a Super Bowl and only four have been in the SB. They all lost, Dan Marino in 1984, Kurt Warner in 2001, Rich Gannon in 2002 and Tom Brady in 2007. You can add Peyton Manning in 2013 to that group. The better team taking a tag is the right way to play this one.

 

[Scrapman]

MORE BETTING NEWS AND NOTES

MORE BETTING NEWS AND NOTES

Chad MatthewsF

How many times will Peyton Manning say "Omaha" during the game? - Over 27.5 -130

Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning shouted the audible call "Omaha" 44 times during Denver?s divisional playoff win over the San Diego Chargers. After his calls gained national attention following that game, Manning used ?Omaha? less in the AFC Championship Game but still managed to say it 31 times. Businesses based in Omaha, Nebraska, have donated money, including Omaha Steaks, Mutual of Omaha, FNB Omaha, CenturyLink, ConAgra Foods, Union Pacific, DJ's Dugout and Cox


Communications every time Manning says "Omaha" This fund-raising program will now continue on to the Super Bowl, with each "Omaha" Manning utters being worth more money since more Omaha businesses will participate for this Sunday's event.


Allen Eastman
Will there be a score in the first 6:30 of the game? - No -110

Alatex

Marshawn Lynch receiving yards
Play: Under 15.5 -130


Ian Cameron

Will the game ever be tied after 0-0 (first score)?
Play: Yes +105


Teddy Covers

Doug Baldwin Total Receiving Yards
Recommendation: Over 39.5

Baldwin?s season averages won?t support this wager ? hence some early Under money that drove this total from 40.5 down to 39.5 at several key books. But with Percy Harvin on the field for the Super Bowl, it should open things up for Baldwin. And Baldwin has become Wilson?s go-to guy down the stretch. He had 63+ receiving yards six of the last nine games that he was involved in the offense (he sat for most of their Week 17 regular season finale), including a six catch, 106 yard effort against the 49ers in the NFC Championship Game. And this is the type of wager we can cash with a single big play!


Scott Delaney

I see Seattle running back Marshawn Lynch has the all-around garden variety running back proposition bets available at most sports books. Some are more intriguing to me than others, but the first one I want you looking at is the number of receptions he will have in the championship game.

I see the number listed at two (2) receptions, with the Over being priced at +110. That truly makes no sense to me, knowing the Seahawks' Russell Wilson will be looking to use dink-and-dunk methods to move the ball effectively in this cold-weather game. Although Wilson has top targets to turn to, including Percy Harvin, who will return, his best option in those short-yardage situations will be Lynch.

The quietly spoken running back who didn't have much to say during Tuesday's Media Day, I think will speak in volumes with a diverse offensive effort, and should catch at least two passes from Wilson. That would be a push, at the very least. But let's just say they find a rhythm - Wilson and Lynch - they could easily connect four times.

In 16 regular season games, Lynch caught 2 or more passes 10 different times. In seven games he caught at least three passes. In two playoffs games, he has just one reception, I understand that. But this is an entirely different football game, and his services will need to expand for this game. For the record, his most receptions in one game this season - it came against the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium, where he caught six passes. In fact, he was most effective as a receiver with six receptions for 73 yards, while he rushed for only 47 yards.

5♦ MARSHAWN LYNCH OVER 2 RECEPTIONS

To go along with a play on Marshawn Lynch catching more than two passes in the big game, I have to believe his teammate, and quarterback, Russell Wilson, will complete more than 16-1/2 passes in this game.

Though it's easy to say the second-year pro has been in a funk of late, averaging just 12.5 completions in the playoffs, and 12.75 in his last four games overall, this is the big stage and his presence is necessary for a team win.

Wilson will also welcome back Percy Harvin, and against Denver?s 27th-ranked pass defense, I suspect he'll be able to produce much better numbers than we've seen since mid-December.

The 5-foot-11, 205-pound strong-armed quarterback completed at least 18 passes in seven regular-season games, and 15 or more passes in 10 regular-season games. He also responded in his team's biggest game to-date - the NFC Championship against San Francisco - with 16 completions against the 49ers' stalwart defense.

Provided there is no inclement weather, which is becoming evident with latest forecasts, Wilson should be within this number by the time the fourth quarter rolls around, and if the game is as tight as the point spread is prescribing, his dink-and-dunk methods will help creep his tally over the number.

4♦ RUSSELL WILSON OVER 16-1/2 COMPLETIONS


Another valuable price I see with the big-game props is on Denver cornerback Champ Bailey, and whether or not he'll nab himself an interception. Whether or not the former Georgia-standouot who has waited 15 years to be on this stage actually has a chance against the Seahawks' young gunslinger, Russell Wilson, is beyond me. But you have a guy like that back there in that secondary, and a price of +350 to swipe one pass, I think you have to take a chance.

The Broncos have the 27th-ranked pass defense, and something tells me that's going to give Wilson a bit of confidence -- some chutzpah, if you will -- to stand back in the pocket and fire away at Denver's secondary. And in that cold weather, one good shot from a defensive lineman could result in a wobbly pass Bailey will zero in on.

The hype of Richard Sherman in this game would make any defensive back fired up for their own performance, and I can't think of a better veteran to invest in than a veteran like Bailey.

The key is to keep Wilson contained in the pocket, and I think the Broncos will have a good chance at doing that during the early part of the game, and if we're going to cash in on this prop, it'll be in the second or third quarter.

Regardless of the outcome, or what you think the Broncos are capable of in this game, it's worth a small play on Bailey getting an interception.

3♦ CHAMP BAILEY "YES" INTERCEPTION


I've touched upon two Seattle Seahawks props, then a defensive one for Denver. Let's talk about an offensive proposition for the Broncos in Super Bowl XLVII, as I like what I am seeing with the price on whether or not Knowshon Moreno will score a touchdown in the game.

Kind of ironic I talked about Champ Bailey, a former Georgia-standout, because Moreno is also a Georgia-grad. Those Bulldogs could make a big difference for the Broncos. I was really surprised to see the price so big on the NO for him to score, given the Broncos could find themselves in red-zone territory and short-yardage situations against this Seattle defense.

While the Seahawks have the No. 1 overall defense, the deficiency - if that's a safe word to use - on the stop unit is with the rushing defense, which ranks seventh in the league. It's the one part of Seattle's stop unit the Broncos have to attack, and must be successful against, if they want to win this game.

Moreno rushed for 1,038 yards this season, the first time he reached the 1,000-yard plateau. The Broncos' offensive line has opened enough holes for Moreno to capitalize on most defensive coverages and tally a cumulative 1,761 yards from scrimmage.

The 5-foot-11, 220-pound bruising power back recorded a career-best 13 touchdowns - including 10 on the ground - and it's pure value to bet he'll get one in the big game, when the price is Even money.

4♦ KNOWSHON MORENO "YES" TOUCHDOWN

 

[Scrapman]

Alex Smart

Seattle vs. Denver
Play: Over 48

The under has dominated this years playoffs. Whether it is part of a coincidental trend or because teams tend to play more conservatively in the post season. Did the weather play a roll or did some unfortunate offensive drives and miscues end with fewer points being scored? Im sure it was all of the above and even more situations I did not mention that surely contributed to the low scoring games.

Alot of consideration and time has gone into setting the total on this years Super Bowl. The linesmakers in my humble opinion may have under estimated the number by a few points, on the low side, as my own numbers suggest a total that fits in better at around 50 total points going on the board. The compensation of the total from the books comes from this years playoff under trend. With so much square money coming in on this contest ,you can bet the basic approach of most of these bettors will be to chase what has already been trending.

In closing conventional wisdom is not always wrong, but profits soar when a sports investor can identify the right situations and find value going against the public. I personally would tend to feel that this game shows some value on the Total being eclipsed.


Bob Balfe
Seattle Seahawks Denver Broncos
Play: Seattle Seahawks +21/2

At the beginning of the year a lot of experts picked Denver and Seattle to face each other in the Super Bowl and then after this wacky season it is ironic that they indeed are playing each other. This is a Super Bowl like no other. Each year this big game holds a story line. Peyton Manning was out of football 2 years ago and now has broken records that could stand for years to come. This is a guy who couldn?t shake your hand with any force 48 months ago and now has his team in the Super Bowl. In my opinion he is in the top 5 quarterbacks to ever play the game. The problem for Manning is he is 37 years old and is up against the new aged defense of the NFL in the Seahawks. Seattle is number one across the board in all defensive categories.

This Seahawks Defense is years ahead of what defenses in the NFL will be like in years to come. They are the LeBron James of football. When Seattle has the ball they will give Denver a look they are not used to. Russell Wilson can move the chains with his feet and that is something Denver is not used to as they have faced mostly in the pocket quarterbacks. Seattle can run the rock and play great defense. This is a winning combo to win the Super Bowl.

There has been a lot of talk about the Denver Defense over the past month. This is a defense that gave up a ton of points early in the season and then as they lost their best players actually got better statistically. I chalk this up to nothing more than the opponents they have played not playing that well in that Denver thin air. This is a defensive unit that lost key players in all levels of their defense. This super bowl reminds me of the Raiders/Bucs if I had to compare it to one. The overall team speed favors the Seahawks. Top rated defenses usually win Super Bowls. Both teams are deserving to win this game and I think it should be a good one, but in the end I think Seattle can disrupt Manning enough to win this football game. Let's not forget about Percy Harvin the ultimate X Factor in a game like this. Take Seattle.


Joe Gavazzi

Seattle +2 & Under 48.5

It can be generalized into a simplistic choice of offense vs defense. QB Manning and the Broncos possess arguably the best offense in the history of the NFL. The Seattle defense was the best in the league this year. Anyone who has followed my history of NFL selections will not be surprised that I am favoring Seattle with the superior defense and running game.


Behind QB Manning and an offensive line that kept him virtually untouched the entire season, Manning threw for nearly 5,500 yards and 55 TDs to rack up over 600 points, the highest scoring offense ever in the NFL. A diverse receiving corps includes wideouts, Welker, Thomas, and Decker, along with TE Thomas. They were quickly on the same page with their QB from the beginning of the season. The running of RBs Ball and Moreno that led to a nearly 120 RYPG ground game that kept things honest and provided a semblance of balance. The defense allowed 25 PPG, though much of that came in garbage time. Most important in this game will be a rush defense that allowed just 100/3.9 per game. A clear advantage for the Broncos is the vast Super Bowl experience edge of HC Fox and QB Manning.

Our preference in this game, however, will be the better running game and the league?s number one defense. What the Seahawks lack in Super Bowl experience, they make up for in attitude. That is something that has directly filtered down from HC Carroll, who has created a highly competitive atmosphere and brings great energy to the entire team. Leading the offense is second year QB Wilson. He is not going to win the game for the Seahawks, but he has proven in two years that he is mature beyond his years and will most probably avoid critical mistakes. It?s the Seattle ground game at 140/3.3 that is their bread and butter. Though the OL endured numerous injuries throughout the season, they are now as healthy as they have been since August. It is that unit that will open holes for beastly RB Lynch, who is the emotional leader of the offense with inspirational runs in which he refuses to be tackled.

The Seahawks? receiving corps is less dynamic than that of the Broncos. WRs Tate, Kearse, and Baldwin are hardly household names or even appear on many fantasy league rosters. The real X Factor for this offense is the return of the explosive Percy Harvin, a potential game breaker with both his kick returns and his ability to gain yards after the catch.

This is an underrated offense whose job it will be to move the ball on the ground and with precision, playing keep away from the Broncos? offense. But the real star of this team is the number one defense, who leads the league with only 15 PPG, while allowing just 283 YPG.

Most impressive is the 59% completion rate allowed for just 5.4 yards per catch. If you?re looking for the X Factor of this defense, consider that they lead the league in takeaways and turnover margin with +23. And I?ve made it very clear about the importance of being on the plus side of the turnover margin, as any team in the NFL regular season who authored a positive turnover margin had a record of 154-32 ATS.

It?s far easier to bet the Broncos in this game and root for the offense. If you bet the Seahawks, you?ll be holding your breath the entire game that QB Manning and the Broncos? offense does not explode. Yet this bureau will hold fast to the tried and true formula that running game, a superior defense, and a positive turnover margin is what wins in the NFL. Those factors clearly point to the Seahawks, who are my selection for this Super Bowl victory.

Regarding the over/under selection: there?s never been a higher scoring season in the NFL. Rule changes favor the offense, as does the more offensive minded philosophy. If you?ve followed our over/under selections this season, you know we took advantage of the built in 2-3 points of value when the line maker failed to adjust for the greater scoring. In this game, however, we must shift gears as fundamentals clearly point to a lower scoring game. As the season wore on, the Bronco offense became more conservative.


That has been especially true in a pair of playoff victories. Yet the strong history of overs for Denver is what in part keeps this total propped up. It would be quite a surprise if the Seattle game plan did not incorporate a keep away philosophy to it. It has been their MO for much of the season. The result is that each of these teams have recently authored 5 consecutive unders. And despite the fact that fireworks often evolve in the fourth quarter of Championship games, I still believe that the percentage side is for a lower scoring game.

Joseph D'Amico

Seattle vs. Denver
Play: Under 48?

Insider Angles

Team to have more first downs in the game ? Seattle +2? (+135): As you will see, we opted to go with positive odds for all of our prop selections beginning with this one. This comes down to the style of play that each team enjoys, as the Broncos are more of a quick strike team while the Seahawks are more methodical with a ball-control offense keyed by the running of Marshawn Lynch and the game management of Russell Wilson, who does not make many mistakes.

We actually feel that underdog Seattle will do a better job of running its offense the way it wants here, as we do not expect Peyton Manning and the Broncos to have has easy a time against the top ranked defense in football as they did vs. typical AFC defenses.

That does not necessarily mean that the Seahawks will emerge victorious, but we do think they will win the Time of Possession battle, which would be a boon to this prop.

Peyton Manning throws an interception before throwing a touchdown (+200): Did we mention that the Seahawks are the best defense that Manning has seen all season? And the biggest strength of the defense is the secondary, led by one of the best cover corners in the game in Richard Sherman. And if you do not believe that Sherman is one of the league?s best cornerbacks, you can just ask him! Yes, Manning had 55 touchdown passes vs. 10 interceptions during the year, but as the adage goes, ?Good defense stops good offense?, so do not expect Peyton to solve the Seattle defense right away, possibly frustrating him into forcing a pass or two.

Super Bowl XLVIII MVP ? Richard Sherman (+2000): It seems almost a given that Manning will win the MVP if the Broncos win even if he does not really deserve it as this may be his last chance as the big prize. But there is practically zero value at taking Manning at a shade over even money at +110, so why not take a shot at these 20/1 odds on the best Seattle defender, as if the Seahawks win, the victory is more likely to be keyed by their great defense. Do not surprised if that includes a Sherman interception, and these odds will look mighty good if he could run one back for a Pick Six.

 

[Scrapman]

Super Bowl XLVIII Betting News and Notes

Super Bowl XLVIII Betting News and Notes

SEATTLE (15 - 3) vs. DENVER (15 - 3) - 2/2/2014, 6:30 PM

Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
SEATTLE is 57-84 ATS (-35.4 Units) off a division game since 1992.
SEATTLE is 24-46 ATS (-26.6 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.
DENVER is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 15-2 ATS (+12.8 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
SEATTLE is 25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 25-13 ATS (+10.7 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


SEATTLE vs. DENVER
Seattle is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 5 games
Denver is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 5 games

Seattle at Denver
Seattle: 6-17 ATS when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest
Denver: 18-5 ATS after gaining 500 or more total yards in their previous game



Broncos/Seahawks Primer
*********

Denver Broncos (15-3) vs. Seattle Seahawks (15-3)

The Seahawks opened as one-point favorites at most outlets, while the total opened between 47 ? and 48. However, the game is listed at a pick-em at several spots after money moved on Denver, while the Broncos are now a one-point favorite.

Super Bowl History:

Broncos are playing in their seventh Super Bowl in franchise history and their first since 1998. Denver lost its first four Super Bowl appearances, while winning its last two in Super Bowl XXXI and XXXII.

Seahawks are participating in their second Super Bowl ever, with the first appearance coming in Super Bowl XL against the Steelers. Seattle fell to Pittsburgh, 21-10, while failing to cover as four-point underdogs.

Path to the Super Bowl:

Broncos beat the Chargers, 24-17 as eight-point favorites in the Divisional Playoffs
Broncos knocked off the Patriots, 26-16 as 4 ?-point favorites in the Conference Championship

Seahawks held off the Saints, 23-15 as nine-point favorites in the Divisional Playoffs
Seahawks rallied past the 49ers, 23-17 as four-point favorites in the Conference Championship

ATS Records:

Denver: 11-6-1
Seattle: 12-6

Over/Under Records:

Denver: 11-7
Seattle: 6-12

Recent Super Bowl History:

Underdogs have covered five of the past six Super Bowls, including outright victories the last two seasons by the Ravens and Giants. Since 2002, underdogs have compiled a 9-3 ATS and 6-6 SU record, while the 'over' is 3-3 the last six Super Bowls.

 

[Scrapman]

Super Bowl Breakdown
By Mike Rose
*******

We are finally left with just two teams, the Denver Broncos and the Seattle Seahawks, left standing in the fight for the Lombardi Trophy. Today at *******, we're breaking down the biggest game of the season with some great trends to remember for the Super Bowl.

Denver Broncos vs. Seattle Seahawks

Line: Denver -2.5 (48)

We have already seen this line move up 2.5-points, as it opened at a pick 'em and immediately moved to Denver by 2.5. These two teams haven't played against each other in nearly four full years, though you can bet with the game on the schedule next season between these two, it will be one of the most highly anticipated games of the regular season.

The Broncos might feel like the superior team, but they clearly had the inferior road to get into the Super Bowl. They probably didn't beat a single truly good team along the way, as they might have been the only good club in the entire AFC this year. Clearly, the New England Patriots and the San Diego Chargers didn't provide all that much of a challenge in the second season, though this seems to be a much greater test.

The Seahawks, meanwhile, came out of the better of the two conferences and the best division within that conference for good measure. They beat the San Francisco 49ers in a gritty NFC Championship Game to get here and took down the New Orleans Saints in a game that was always under control but never quite settled until the final gun.

QB Peyton Manning is going to have all eyes on him in this one, knowing that he is one of the biggest names the sport has to offer. He threw for 400 yards in the conference title game, the most in a Super Bowl semifinal by a quarterback in league history. Manning though, is only 1-1 SU and ATS in his two trips to the Super Bowl in the past, beating the Chicago Bears and losing to the New Orleans Saints.

The question we have is whether or not these Seahawks, who have virtually no Super Bowl experience, can live up to the biggest game of the year. They certainly don't have a lack of confidence, but they do have a lack of trends on their side in this one.

Sure, Seattle is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games against teams with winning records, but Denver has covered eight of its last 11 games overall. The Seahawks have covered the closing number in six of their L/10 playoff tussles, while the Broncos have been a money burner in the second season having beaten the oddsmakers just three of the L/10 times.

Keep an eye on the 'under' in this one. Not only have all four of these playoff games between these two teams failed to reach the 'total', but Seattle has played seven straight games 'under' the number. The Broncos have gone 'over' in 13 of their last 16 games played on field turf, but they have played five of their last seven to the 'under'.

The 'over' though, is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in this series, though that dates all the way back to when these two teams shared the AFC West with one another.


SBXLVIII Outlook
By ***********

Super Bowl XLVIII - Seattle Seahawks (15-3) vs. Denver Broncos (15-3)

Venue: MetLife Stadium
Location: East Rutherford, NJ
Kickoff: Sunday, Feb. 2 - 6:30 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Denver -2.5, Total: 47.5

The top two seeds in the NFL meet up for Super Bowl XLVIII on Feb. 2, as the Seahawks seek their first-ever championship against a Broncos team that last won the title in the 1998 season.

Both teams have identical 15-3 SU records (including 6-2 on the road) heading into the final game of the season, with Seattle going 12-6 ATS and Denver going 11-6-1 ATS. But the makeup of the two clubs is entirely different, as the Seahawks own the league's best defense (14.6 PPG, 283 YPG allowed) while the Broncos have the NFL's top offense with 36.4 PPG and 455 total YPG.

The field conditions appear to favor Seattle, as the club is 10-1 SU (7-4 ATS) on turf this season and its run-oriented offense is more conducive to what is forecast to be the coldest Super Bowl in NFL history with a significant amount of wind. Although Denver has scored a lofty 41.0 PPG on 448 total YPG in its three turf games this season (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS), the weather is less than ideal for its pass-happy offense.

Both quarterbacks have had excellent seasons, with Seahawks QB Russell Wilson throwing for 3,357 yards (8.2 YPA), 26 TD and 9 INT, and Broncos QB Peyton Manning is coming off the best regular season in NFL history with 5,477 passing yards (8.3 YPA), 55 TD and 10 INT.

These teams used to be in the same division, with Denver holding a 17-6 SU (12-10-1 ATS) advantage in this series since 1992. But they have met just twice over the past decade with Seattle winning 23-20 in 2006, but losing 31-14 in the most recent meeting in 2010 when Kyle Orton outplayed Matt Hasselbeck in the matchup of starting quarterbacks.

Both clubs have loads of favorable betting trends, highlighted by the Seahawks' 10-0 ATS mark in the second half of the season under head coach Pete Carroll versus teams that allow 24+ PPG, winning by an average of 32.0 PPG to 12.0 PPG in this situation.

But the Broncos have thrived with at least two weeks of rest since 1992, going 15-2 ATS and outscoring these opponents by nearly double-digits (29.4 PPG to 19.6 PPG). With the two weeks in between games, both teams will have time to get healthy.


Seattle expects to have both WRs Percy Harvin (head) and Doug Baldwin (hip) on the field, while Denver lists both RB Knowshon Moreno (ribs) and DB Tony Carter (concussion) as probable.

The Seahawks offense is built around a power running game that averages 138 YPG on 4.3 YPC this season. RB Marshawn Lynch is the engine for this elite ground game, piling up 1,506 yards on 351 carries (4.3 YPC) with 15 TD this season, which includes 249 yards on 50 carries (5.0 YPC) and three scores in the playoffs. In two career meetings with Denver when he was with Buffalo, Lynch ran for 133 yards on 30 carries (4.1 YPC) and 2 TD.

The Seattle ground game is also helped out greatly by QB Russell Wilson, who has galloped for 555 yards on 104 carries (5.3 YPC), although he has gained just 16 yards on 13 carries during his team's three-game win streak.

But the Seahawks are capable of throwing the football too, with Wilson completing 63% of his passes for 204 YPG. Wilson hasn't had the services of WR Percy Harvin for nearly the entire season, as he touched the ball just twice during the regular season, but Harvin was a big part of the offense in the team's first playoff win versus New Orleans when he caught three passes for 21 yards in the first half of that game before sustaining a head injury.

Even if Harvin isn't a big part of the team's offense, Wilson has been just fine without him in his playoff career, going 3-1 and completing 61% of his passes for 890 yards (8.5 YPA), 4 TD and just one interception. WRs Golden Tate (942 rec. yards, 5 TD) and Doug Baldwin (914 rec. yards, 5 TD) are his most frequently used receivers, while TE Zach Miller (423 rec. yards, 5 TD) also plays an important role in the passing offense.

The Seahawks have not been great on third downs this season at 37%, and this rate has dropped to 28% over the past five games. But the club has done an excellent job of protecting the football recently, turning the ball over just five times in the past nine games combined.

The Under has occurred seven straight times in Seattle games thanks to a defense that has allowed just 12.0 PPG and 267 total YPG during this seven-game stretch. For the season, the Seahawks have been stingy in stuffing the run (105 YPG on 4.0 YPC) and have been even more proficient in stopping the pass (178 YPG on 5.4 YPA and 58.7% completions). Putting pressure on Peyton Manning will be a key to the team's chances of winning this matchup. Although Seattle has 47 sacks this season, the club has recorded two sacks or less in eight of its past nine games. But the Seahawks have also done an excellent job of forcing mistakes with an impressive 43 takeaways on the season, including 15 over the past five games.

Denver's offense has put up points in bunches all season, scoring at least 20 points in every game, and tallying at least 30 points 13 times, including six games of 40+ points. Although the offense has slowed down greatly since the start of November (31.3 PPG) compared to the first two months of the season (42.9 PPG), turnovers are also down considerably from 17 giveaways in the first eight games, compared to just 11 over the past 10 contests.

The Broncos have also run the ball better in their past eight games, averaging 133 rushing YPG on a hefty 4.6 YPC. Running the football, especially in cold and windy conditions, will a big key to their success of sustaining drives, something they have been masterful at all season with a third-down conversion rate of 48%, which includes an eye-popping 62% rate (16-of-26) in the playoffs.

RB Knowshon Moreno is the main ball carrier, producing 1,179 yards on 278 carries (4.2 YPC) with 11 touchdowns on the ground and zero lost fumbles. Backup RB Montee Ball has 654 yards on 142 carries (4.6 YPC) and 4 TD, and hasn't fumbled since Week 3. Although Moreno was held to just 51 yards on 24 carries (2.1 YPG) in the 2010 meeting with Seattle, he also gained 67 yards through the air and scored a touchdown that day.

But this offense will not completely abandon the passing game, no matter what the elements are. QB Peyton Manning is 11-9 in his playoff career where he's thrown for 5,888 yards (294 YPG, 7.7 YPA), 35 TD and 22 INT, but his cold-weather numbers aren't to the level of his lofty standards. In 18 career starts in outdoor games with a temperature below 40 degrees, Manning is just 8-10 with 4,415 passing yards (245 YPG, 7.2 YPA), 30 TD and 22 INT. In four playoff games in this cold-weather scenario, his numbers are downright horrible: 0-4, 56% completions, 226 passing YPG, 5.5 YPA, 4 TD and 9 INT.

But he's never had a receiving corps nearly as good as his current foursome of WRs Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker and Wes Welker, and with TE Julius Thomas.

Demaryius Thomas has racked up 1,618 receiving yards and 16 touchdowns this season, with six 100-yard efforts in his past 10 games, including 134 in the AFC Championship win over New England. He also caught eight passes for 97 yards and a touchdown in that 2010 victory over the Seahawks.

Decker has gained 1,393 yards through the air with 11 scores this season, but his yardage totals have been less consistent with four 100-yard efforts, but also eight games of 55 yards or less.

The play of Wes Welker (854 rec. yards, 11 TD in 15 games) will be key in this matchup, as he is the possession receiver tasked with running shorter routes over the middle of the field. But Welker has been held below 40 yards in four of his past five games, and has already suffered two known concussions this season.

Julius Thomas has 949 receiving yards and 12 TD this season, and has been excellent in these playoffs with 14 catches for 161 yards.

Defensively, the Broncos have allowed a pedestrian 24.0 PPG on 349 YPG this season, but these numbers have improved greatly during their current four-game win streak to 15.0 PPG on 269 YPG. However, the defense has been terrible on turf fields this season, allowing a hefty 35.0 PPG on 446 YPG in these three contests.

The good news is that Denver is much more efficient in stopping the run this season (97 YPG on 3.9 YPC) than the pass (251 YPG on 6.7 YPA), and running the football is exactly what Seattle's offense will try to do. The Broncos don't have that dynamic pass rusher with LB Von Miller on injured reserve, failing to record more than four sacks in any of their 18 games this season.

But they have tallied at least two sacks in 16 games, including each of the past six contests where they have totaled 15 sacks. Turnovers are a key to any game, as there are only four teams in the history of the NFL that have lost the turnover battle in a Super Bowl and still won the big game. In their past 10 games, the Broncos have forced only 10 turnovers, including zero in the two playoff contests.

 

[Scrapman]

Super Bowl 48 Countdown
By Jim Feist
**********

In the world of eleven to ten, there?s nothing quite like Super Bowl week. In this case, it?s two weeks, as the teams have two weeks to prepare for the Big Game. It?s also one of the most creative weeks of the sports betting season. While there?s only one game left on the football calendar, there are still ample opportunities for betting with hundreds of creative props by various oddsmakers.

For example, you can bet on the exact score of the game by each team, who will score first, or how many yards a player has. A year ago the largest lead was projected at over/under 14 (The Ravens led 21-6 at the half and 28-6 when Jacoby Jones returned the third quarter kickoff 108 yards). RB Ray Rice?s receptions was 3? ? he ended up with four catches for 19 yards. Passing yards by Joe Flacco was set at 247? (he threw for 287). Two years ago QB Tom Brady was projected over/under 300 yards and 2.5 TDs (he finished with 276 yards, 2 TDs, going under for both).

Three years ago, Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers? TD passes was over/under 2 (he threw 3 against Pittsburgh). His first pass to be incomplete was +210 (it was). Four years ago, Pierre Garcon scored the first TD at 10-to-1 odds. Five years ago, RB Gary Russell was 18-to-1 to score the first TD in the Super Bowl and did on a one-yard run. He finished with minus-three yards rushing but cashed that exclusive prop.

Seven years ago, if you bet on Chicago return specialist Devin Hester to score the first touchdown of the game you would have cashed a 25-to-1 prop ticket after he returned the opening kickoff 92 yards. 14 seconds in cashing a 25-to-1 ticket is the best way to watch a Super Bowl!

You can wager that no TDs will be scored by either team, often at 50-to-1. Of course, that has never happened as we head to Super Bowl 48 next week. There also has never been overtime, though you will be able to wager on ?Will there be overtime or not?? There will be ?over/under? lines offered on how many touchdown passes a quarterback might throw, the first team to turn the ball over and even the coin flip. There will be creative wagers offered such as how many receiving yards one player might get matched up against the number of points the NBA?s Jeff Green might have as the Celtics/Magic battle before the Super Sunday kickoff.

The Super Bowl brings out the best in the creative minds of oddsmakers. Smart bettors will search through all the props, totals and side bets offered in an attempt to find an edge and add to their bankrolls. Since Super Bowl X in 1976 between the Steelers and Cowboys, there have been 22 ?overs? and 16 ?unders.?

Why so many ?overs?? One factor is that coaches with a lead are less likely to sit on the ball in the second half in a Super Bowl. If a team is up 17-0 at the half of a December game, for example, a coach might be inclined to go conservative, run the clock and avoid injuries. In the postseason, it?s the final game of the year and no lead is safe. No coach wants to play super-conservative and be remembered as the guy who blew a 20-0 lead in the biggest game of his career. Since it?s the last game of the season, coaches often put in trick plays and new offensive wrinkles in an attempt to maximize scoring opportunities.

Despite the excessive ?overs? you can?t overlook the importance of defense. The Patriots got taken down against the defensive-oriented Ravens a year ago, while the 49ers were a powerhouse defensive team. Two years ago the Saints and Packers didn?t win a playoff game despite all those flashy offensive numbers, while the defensive-oriented Giants, 49ers and Ravens made it to the Final Four.

In 2008 and 2012 the big story was the flashy offense of the Patriots as a favorite each time, but who came out ahead? The great defense of the Giants kept the game close and was the main reason in their 17-14 and 21-17 victories. 11 years ago the No. 1 offense (Oakland) faced the No. 1 defense (Tampa Bay)? Oakland?s great offense was a 4-point favorite, but Tampa?s defense dominated in a 48-21 rout. In fact, seven of the last 13 Super Bowl champs have had statistically better defenses than their offenses, including the 2005 Steelers (4th in defense) and 2008 Steelers (No. 1). Three of those champs, the 2001 Patriots, the ?02 Buccaneers and the ?07 Giants, were Super Bowl underdogs.

You?ll be able to find creative point spread props, too. Seven years ago, the total number of field goals was 3? over +135. The Colts and Bears combined for 4 field goals as the over just made it. Eight years ago Seattle RB Shaun Alexander had these over/under props: Total yards 89?, carries 21?, and longest rush 19?. The final tallies: 95 yards, 20 carries, with the longest rush of 21 yards. Nine years ago the number of passing yards by QB Tom Brady: 237?. The ?under? ended up being the winner, but not by much: Brady finished with 236 passing yards.

Key numbers will come into play, as well, as books are petrified of getting middled. 14 years ago the Rams were a 7 to 7?-point favorite against the Titans. The Rams won by seven points, 23-16. The most famous example was in 1979, forever known in Las Vegas as ?Black Sunday.? The Steelers opened a 2?-point favorite over the Cowboys, were bet up to 5, then back down to 4. Books everywhere were sick when the Steelers won, 35-31, landing on the dreaded ?M? word!


SBXLVIII Betting Trends
By Marc Lawrence
***********

SB XLVIII ? A Charlie Brown Super Bowl

To better visualize the winner of Super Bowl XLVIII we look to Winston Churchill, who once said, ?The farther back you can look the farther forward you are likely to see.?

In the case of Super Bowls past, we can look back as far as 1967. Coupled with the power of our way-back machine ? aka our database ? let?s break down what appears to be a very evenly matched Super Bowl game between Denver and Seattle at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey.

Here is our list of checks and balances for SB XLVIII.

Even Steven

Not only is SB XLVIII the first Super Bowl in 20 years to pair No. 1 seeds from each conference, both teams bring identical 15-3 records into the fray.

Looking deeper, each team squared off against five common opponents (both faced the AFC South) this season, both going 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS in those games with Denver going 5-0 ITS (In The Stats) for a net of +748 yards. Seattle was 4-1 ITS for net of +428 yards,

In games versus fellow playoff teams this season, the Broncos went 6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS, 7-2 ITS for a net of +621 yards. The Seahawks were 4-2 SU and ATS, 3-2-1 ITS, for a net of +244 yards.

Edge: None.

Head-To-Head

The Broncos are 16-5 SU and 12-8-1 ATS in games versus the Seahawks since 1993.

Denver has won the last 10 games in a row in this series in games in which they?ve owned a win percentage of .800 or greater.

Seattle is 1-19 SU in its last twenty games versus AFC West opponents who sport a win percentage of .800 or greater.

Edge: Broncos.

Statistically Speaking

Seattle?s defense is ranked No.1 overall, surrendering 284 YPG while allowing a league low 15 PPG. Denver?s offense is ranked No. 1 overall, gaining 454 YPG, scoring a league best 36 PPG.

This marks the fifth time in Super Bowl history that a team with the No. 1 defense has faced the team with the No. 1 offense. Defense has beat offense 3 of the 4 previous meetings. In addition teams with the better defense have won 39 of the previous 47 Super Bowls.

However, teams with the better defense are just 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS the last seven Super Bowls.

Edge: None.

Logistically Speaking

Teams arriving to the Super Bowl off three consecutive home games (Seattle) are 2-6 SU and 1-7 ATS since 2000, including 0-5 SU and ATS off a win of 6 or less points

Super Bowl teams off four consecutive home games (Seattle) are 0-3 SU and ATS since 2000, losing all three times SU as a favorite. The Seahawks last game away from Seattle was 34 days ago (December 15).

Super bowl favorites of 5 or less points in ?double rest? affairs - week of rest first playoff game and week of rest before the Super Bowl ? are 1-7 both SU and ATS (Broncos).

Edge: None.

Behind Center

To no one?s surprise, both quarterbacks bring terrific QB Ratings in to the contest. Denver?s Peyton Manning finished the regular season as the league?s top-ranked signal caller at 115.1 on 55 TDs and 10 INTs. Seattle?s Russell Wilson owned a 101.2 QB Rating, with 26 TDs and 9 INTs.

The postseason?s QB Ratings show Manning at 107.0, while Wilson?s numbers have further regressed during the playoffs down to 89.1.

Manning is 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS in his career versus Seattle, including 2-0 ATS as a favorite. He is also 28-7 SU and 22-12-1 ATS with the Broncos.

After winning SB XLI with the Colts in 2007, Manning has completed 248 of 366 passes for 18 TDs and 7 INTS in a total of nine postseason efforts since.

Wilson is 27-9 SU and 25-11 ATS as a starting QB with the Seahawks, including 5-4 SU and 8-1 ATS as a dog.

Wilson has tossed for less than 200 yards in over half of his starts, 19 to be exact including 9 this season (including each of his last 6 games).

FYI: the Manning-led Broncos are 12-2 SU and 10-4 ATS in game in which they have managed to hold opponents to 200 or less passing yards in a game.

Edge: Broncos.

On The Sidelines

Denver?s John Fox brings an 8-5 SU and ATS NFL postseason career mark into this game, dropping a 32-29 decision as a 7-point dog to New England in SB XXVII.

Fox is just 11-22 SU and 12-20-1 ATS in his NFL career in games versus .769 or greater opposition.

Seattle?s Pete Carroll is 5-4 SU and 6-3 ATS in his NFL playoff career.

The good news is Carroll is 36-24-4 ATS as an underdog in the NFL. The bad news is he is 1-5 SU/ATS as a dog of 2 or less points, and 0-11 SU as an underdog in games in which his team owns a win percentage of .647 or more.

Edge: None.

Super Bowl History

The NFC has controlled the last 32 Super Bowls, going 21-11 SU and 20-10-3 ATS, including 4-1 SU and ATS the last five years. The AFC, though, actually holds the upper hand of late, going 10-6 SU the last 16 years.

The last NFC No. 1 seed (Seahawks), other than New Orleans in 2009, to win a Super Bowl was St. Louis in 2000.

17 of the last 20 quarterbacks have owned a QB Rating of 92.6 or better.

Favorites of 3 or less points (Broncos) are 7-4 SU and ATS, and 5-6 to the ?Under?.

Teams who won their last two playoff games against foes that were off a playoff road win (Seahawks) are 4-8 SU/ATS, including 1-5 SU/ATS since 2000.

Teams who score 20 or fewer points in the game are 6-30 SU and 9-33 ATS. Teams who score 21 or more points in the game are 40-12 SU and 36-14-2 ATS.

The SU winner of a Super Bowl game is 39-6-2 ATS all-time.

Edge: None.

Ups And Downs

The oddsmakers have done their best job posting Over/Under totals on Super Bowl games. That?s confirmed by the fact that there have been 24 ?Overs' and 22 ?Unders? in this history of the big game ? with no total available in the inaugural game.

After the Giants and Patriots played to 17-14 ?Under? in 2008, each of the last five Super Bowl totals results have alternated, going: O-U-O-U-O since.

The big story in the world of Over/Under total in the NFL this season was the success realized in non-conference games throughout the 2013 season as these games were an amazing 49-15 to the ?Over?.

Despite the success of this betting trend this season, there has not been a major move to the ?Over? in this year?s Super Bowl, due largely to the fact the game is being played outdoors in New Jersey.

Cold temperatures, snow and wind will likely be the determining factor as to which direction the opening total of 47.5 settles.

Edge: The weatherman.

As Charlie Brown would say, ?That?s my 5 cents.? Enjoy the game!:142smilie

 

[Scrapman]

Tale Of The Tape
By Joe Nelson

The Super Bowl closes out the long football season and is one of the most anticipated betting events of the year. It is a difficult game to handicap given the unique situations involved for both teams with the extra preparation time, attention, and the neutral site. While there may be better opportunities digging deeper into the numerous proposition bets available, here is a look at the traditional options for Sunday's big game.

The case for Denver...

The Denver offense posted record setting numbers this season, scoring over 36 points per game on the season. Those figures include two playoff games that featured lower numbers but featured the Broncos in complete control. If you take away the three games against San Diego, the one team that seemed to be able to slow Denver down, the Broncos averaged 39 points per game. Denver's defense does not have Seattle's overall statistical profile but down the stretch and in the playoffs Denver was arguably more impressive on defense. In the two playoff games Denver allowed 33 points but they allowed just three points combined in the first three quarters of the two games as almost all of the scoring for San Diego and New England came with the game all but in hand for the Broncos.

The teams that did give the Denver defense problems were mostly strong down field passing teams, the Cowboys and Giants early in the season, the Colts, and a Patriots squad with Rob Gronkowski, were some of the most productive teams against the Broncos. That has not been the formula for the Seahawks on offense as Seattle is reliant on running the ball to set up the passing game. Denver actually has featured a superior run defense to Seattle and none of the last four foes for the Broncos have topped 87 yards rushing with the two playoff opponents combining for only 129 yards rushing. If Seattle is unable to run the ball effectively they will have little chance of keeping up with the Broncos.

The case for Seattle...

Seattle's offense struggled down the stretch by most measures, scoring just 22 points per game in the seven games after a week 12 bye. In six of those seven games the Seahawks faced a team that finished in top eight in the NFL in total defense however. On the season the Seahawks played eight games against teams that finished in the top six in the league in total defense while Denver did not play a single one. The Broncos actually only played five games all season against teams that finished in the top 20 in the league in total defense.

On a yards per play basis the numbers are just as glaring, Seattle faced a top 10 yards per play defense in half of its 18 games this season, while Denver only faced one such game all season as the record setting numbers for the Broncos came against an incredibly weak slate of defenses. Turnovers often decide NFL games and Seattle was the best team in the league at creating turnovers, averaging 2.4 turnovers per game.

The Seahawks were also one of the best teams at not giving the ball away while Denver struggled with turnovers this season with 1.6 giveaways per game and those mistakes came against much lesser defensive teams than Seattle. While the Saints wound up with 301 yards passing in the divisional playoff game with a few big plays in a late rally after Seattle built a lead, no other team topped 214 yards passing against Seattle all season long and it is certainly difficult to envision a scenario where the Broncos win without success in the air.

The case for the Over...

While the Super Bowls of the 1980s and 1990s featured a heavy lean to the 'over' the trend has flipped with six of the last nine Super Bowls playing 'under'. Three of the last six Super Bowls have featured a total in the 50s and this year's game currently features a total lower than 14 of the last 25 Super Bowls despite this game featuring two teams that are in the top eight in the league in scoring offense.

The Broncos were the highest scoring regular season team in NFL history and if you take away the seven games against division rivals this is a Broncos team that averaged 41 points per game. In the four games against NFC teams Denver actually scored over 47 points per game on average. Seattle was statistically the best defense in the NFL this season by most measures but Seattle did play eight games against teams in the bottom 10 of the NFL in yards per play offense and the Seahawks only played three games against the NFL's top 10 yards per play teams.

The Seattle offense was much better than it often gets credit for as well as the Seahawks has scored almost 26 points per game this season despite playing 13 games against the top 15 teams in the league in total defense. The Seahawks actually played eight games this season against teams that finished in the top six in the NFL in total defense. By most measures Denver was a very average defense this season and while the Broncos have been sharp defensively in the playoffs the lower scoring games in the run to the Super Bowl has pushed this total to the lowest number in any Broncos game all season.

The average total in a Denver game this season was 54 so there is almost an entire touchdown taken off with respect for Seattle's defense. Weather is a valid concern for what should be the coldest Super Bowl ever but weather is often over compensated for in NFL games as the field will be meticulously cared for given the huge stage and the players have advanced equipment suitable for all conditions.

The case for the Under...

The record setting Denver offense certainly deserves some respect but who exactly did the Broncos have to play this season? Denver only played one game all season against a defense that finished the season in the top 11 of the league in yards per play defense. Eight of the 18 games for the Broncos came against a team in the bottom eight of the league in that measure. 13 of the 18 games for Denver came against teams ranking in the bottom 12 of the NFL in total defense as well. Seattle was the #1 total defense this season by almost 20 yards per game as well as being the #1 scoring defense and the #1 yards per play defense.

This is a historically great defense especially compared with the upward scoring of the league in general this season. The most passing yards against the Seahawks in the regular season was just 214 yards, the Saints did eclipse that mark in the divisional round of the playoffs but New Orleans did not score a single point through three quarters in that game, posting a total of 156 yards through its first eight possessions before getting a few late scores. While the Seattle defense will get most of the attention,

Denver has allowed just 15 points per game in the last four games despite some notable injuries. The scoring against Denver is also inflated with 30 of 33 points allowed in the two playoff games coming in the fourth quarter. Denver is currently the fourth best rush defense in the NFL in yards per game allowed, holding foes to less than 98 yards per game, on just 3.9 yards per carry, both figures that best the great Seattle defense against the run.

This matchup should play out favorably for both defenses as Seattle's great rush offense will face a very good rush defense and the great passing game for Denver will deal with a great Seattle pass defense. Seattle has also been top takeaway team in the league, averaging 2.4 turnovers created per game and with this high number even one missed scoring opportunity could disrupt the scoring pace significantly. Add in a very good chance of wind and snow and the added pressure and attention of this big game for two teams that were much better performers at home and it is easy to see this game unfolding as a lower scoring affair.


SBXLVIII Outlook
By ***********

Super Bowl XLVIII - Seattle Seahawks (15-3) vs. Denver Broncos (15-3)

Venue: MetLife Stadium
Location: East Rutherford, NJ
Kickoff: Sunday, Feb. 2 - 6:30 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Current Line & Total: Denver -2.5 & 47
Sportsbook.ag Opening Line & Total: Pick ?em & 48

The top two seeds in the NFL meet up for Super Bowl XLVIII on Feb. 2, as the Seahawks seek their first-ever championship against a Broncos team that last won the title in the 1998 season.

Both teams have identical 15-3 SU records (including 6-2 on the road) heading into the final game of the season, with Seattle going 12-6 ATS and Denver going 11-6-1 ATS. But the makeup of the two clubs is entirely different, as the Seahawks own the league's best defense (14.6 PPG, 283 YPG allowed) while the Broncos have the NFL's top offense with 36.4 PPG and 455 total YPG.

The field conditions appear to favor Seattle, as the club is 10-1 SU (7-4 ATS) on turf this season and its run-oriented offense is more conducive to what is forecast to be the coldest Super Bowl in NFL history with a significant amount of wind. Although Denver has scored a lofty 41.0 PPG on 448 total YPG in its three turf games this season (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS), the weather is less than ideal for its pass-happy offense.

Both quarterbacks have had excellent seasons, with Seahawks QB Russell Wilson throwing for 3,357 yards (8.2 YPA), 26 TD and 9 INT, and Broncos QB Peyton Manning is coming off the best regular season in NFL history with 5,477 passing yards (8.3 YPA), 55 TD and 10 INT.

These teams used to be in the same division, with Denver holding a 17-6 SU (12-10-1 ATS) advantage in this series since 1992. But they have met just twice over the past decade with Seattle winning 23-20 in 2006, but losing 31-14 in the most recent meeting in 2010 when Kyle Orton outplayed Matt Hasselbeck in the matchup of starting quarterbacks.

Both clubs have loads of favorable betting trends, highlighted by the Seahawks' 10-0 ATS mark in the second half of the season under head coach Pete Carroll versus teams that allow 24+ PPG, winning by an average of 32.0 PPG to 12.0 PPG in this situation.

But the Broncos have thrived with at least two weeks of rest since 1992, going 15-2 ATS and outscoring these opponents by nearly double-digits (29.4 PPG to 19.6 PPG). With the two weeks in between games, both teams will have time to get healthy.

Seattle expects to have both WRs Percy Harvin (head) and Doug Baldwin (hip) on the field, while Denver lists both RB Knowshon Moreno (ribs) and DB Tony Carter (concussion) as probable.

The Seahawks offense is built around a power running game that averages 138 YPG on 4.3 YPC this season. RB Marshawn Lynch is the engine for this elite ground game, piling up 1,506 yards on 351 carries (4.3 YPC) with 15 TD this season, which includes 249 yards on 50 carries (5.0 YPC) and three scores in the playoffs. In two career meetings with Denver when he was with Buffalo, Lynch ran for 133 yards on 30 carries (4.1 YPC) and 2 TD.

The Seattle ground game is also helped out greatly by QB Russell Wilson, who has galloped for 555 yards on 104 carries (5.3 YPC), although he has gained just 16 yards on 13 carries during his team's three-game win streak.

But the Seahawks are capable of throwing the football too, with Wilson completing 63% of his passes for 204 YPG. Wilson hasn't had the services of WR Percy Harvin for nearly the entire season, as he touched the ball just twice during the regular season, but Harvin was a big part of the offense in the team's first playoff win versus New Orleans when he caught three passes for 21 yards in the first half of that game before sustaining a head injury.

Even if Harvin isn't a big part of the team's offense, Wilson has been just fine without him in his playoff career, going 3-1 and completing 61% of his passes for 890 yards (8.5 YPA), 4 TD and just one interception. WRs Golden Tate (942 rec. yards, 5 TD) and Doug Baldwin (914 rec. yards, 5 TD) are his most frequently used receivers, while TE Zach Miller (423 rec. yards, 5 TD) also plays an important role in the passing offense.

The Seahawks have not been great on third downs this season at 37%, and this rate has dropped to 28% over the past five games. But the club has done an excellent job of protecting the football recently, turning the ball over just five times in the past nine games combined.

The Under has occurred seven straight times in Seattle games thanks to a defense that has allowed just 12.0 PPG and 267 total YPG during this seven-game stretch. For the season, the Seahawks have been stingy in stuffing the run (105 YPG on 4.0 YPC) and have been even more proficient in stopping the pass (178 YPG on 5.4 YPA and 58.7% completions). Putting pressure on Peyton Manning will be a key to the team's chances of winning this matchup. Although Seattle has 47 sacks this season, the club has recorded two sacks or less in eight of its past nine games. But the Seahawks have also done an excellent job of forcing mistakes with an impressive 43 takeaways on the season, including 15 over the past five games.

Denver's offense has put up points in bunches all season, scoring at least 20 points in every game, and tallying at least 30 points 13 times, including six games of 40+ points. Although the offense has slowed down greatly since the start of November (31.3 PPG) compared to the first two months of the season (42.9 PPG), turnovers are also down considerably from 17 giveaways in the first eight games, compared to just 11 over the past 10 contests.

The Broncos have also run the ball better in their past eight games, averaging 133 rushing YPG on a hefty 4.6 YPC. Running the football, especially in cold and windy conditions, will a big key to their success of sustaining drives, something they have been masterful at all season with a third-down conversion rate of 48%, which includes an eye-popping 62% rate (16-of-26) in the playoffs.

RB Knowshon Moreno is the main ball carrier, producing 1,179 yards on 278 carries (4.2 YPC) with 11 touchdowns on the ground and zero lost fumbles. Backup RB Montee Ball has 654 yards on 142 carries (4.6 YPC) and 4 TD, and hasn't fumbled since Week 3. Although Moreno was held to just 51 yards on 24 carries (2.1 YPG) in the 2010 meeting with Seattle, he also gained 67 yards through the air and scored a touchdown that day.

But this offense will not completely abandon the passing game, no matter what the elements are. QB Peyton Manning is 11-9 in his playoff career where he's thrown for 5,888 yards (294 YPG, 7.7 YPA), 35 TD and 22 INT, but his cold-weather numbers aren't to the level of his lofty standards. In 18 career starts in outdoor games with a temperature below 40 degrees, Manning is just 8-10 with 4,415 passing yards (245 YPG, 7.2 YPA), 30 TD and 22 INT. In four playoff games in this cold-weather scenario, his numbers are downright horrible: 0-4, 56% completions, 226 passing YPG, 5.5 YPA, 4 TD and 9 INT.

But he's never had a receiving corps nearly as good as his current foursome of WRs Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker and Wes Welker, and with TE Julius Thomas.

Demaryius Thomas has racked up 1,618 receiving yards and 16 touchdowns this season, with six 100-yard efforts in his past 10 games, including 134 in the AFC Championship win over New England. He also caught eight passes for 97 yards and a touchdown in that 2010 victory over the Seahawks.

Decker has gained 1,393 yards through the air with 11 scores this season, but his yardage totals have been less consistent with four 100-yard efforts, but also eight games of 55 yards or less.

The play of Wes Welker (854 rec. yards, 11 TD in 15 games) will be key in this matchup, as he is the possession receiver tasked with running shorter routes over the middle of the field. But Welker has been held below 40 yards in four of his past five games, and has already suffered two known concussions this season.

Julius Thomas has 949 receiving yards and 12 TD this season, and has been excellent in these playoffs with 14 catches for 161 yards.

Defensively, the Broncos have allowed a pedestrian 24.0 PPG on 349 YPG this season, but these numbers have improved greatly during their current four-game win streak to 15.0 PPG on 269 YPG. However, the defense has been terrible on turf fields this season, allowing a hefty 35.0 PPG on 446 YPG in these three contests.

The good news is that Denver is much more efficient in stopping the run this season (97 YPG on 3.9 YPC) than the pass (251 YPG on 6.7 YPA), and running the football is exactly what Seattle's offense will try to do. The Broncos don't have that dynamic pass rusher with LB Von Miller on injured reserve, failing to record more than four sacks in any of their 18 games this season.

But they have tallied at least two sacks in 16 games, including each of the past six contests where they have totaled 15 sacks. Turnovers are a key to any game, as there are only four teams in the history of the NFL that have lost the turnover battle in a Super Bowl and still won the big game. In their past 10 games, the Broncos have forced only 10 turnovers, including zero in the two playoff contests. WOW and they won both games decivsely isnt that special i wonder how dem Bronco fellas did this ?

ANSWER BY controlling the Clock with slew of players on offense 2 top rb's wr's and TE's all have dd td's this year!

 

[Scrapman]

Forty-Eight Great Betting Notes For Super Bowl XLVIII
By Brian Covert
Covers.com

We're just a few days away from Super Bowl XLVIII so it's time to really buckle down and get focused on your bets. We put together a list of the best 48 Super Bowl betting notes we could find to help you with your handicapping down the stretch.

1. Sunday?s game will be only the third time in the last 20 years the two preseason favorites have met in the Super Bowl. The NFC has won the two previous meetings with the New Orleans Saints beating the Indianapolis Colts in 2009 and the Dallas Cowboys beating the Buffalo Bills in 1993.

2. The closest approximation of this year?s Super Bowl matchup was in 2002, when the league?s best defensive team, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, beat the Oakland Raiders, who were the league?s second-highest scoring team, 48-21.

(AGAIN another writer fails to tell you That Gruden already knew the playbook of his former team and the HC his former OC also that coach had hatred for Raiders owner davis and purposuley gave up the game and used the playbook that gruden used )


3. Twenty-one of 47 Super Bowls have featured a Top-5 total offense against a Top-5 total defense. In those instances, the defense has beaten the offense 13 times SU. However, teams with the better defense are just 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS in the last seven Super Bowls.

4. The NFC has held the upper hand over the AFC in Super Bowl games since the 1980 season, going 21-11 SU and 20-10-3 ATS.

5. The team that scores first is 31-16 SU in the Super Bowl.

6. The Broncos? starters have an average 5.7 seasons in the NFL, 3.3 playoffs and players who have experienced five different Super Bowls. The Seahawks starters have an average of 4.6 seasons, 2.5 playoff seasons, and no Super Bowl appearances.

7. Denver?s coaching staff has a combined 49 NFL seasons, 19 playoff seasons, and three Super Bowls between them while Seattle?s coaching staff have 38 NFL seasons, 19 playoff seasons, and zero Super Bowls between them.

8. Seattle beat Denver 40-10 as a 5-point favorite in the preseason. Peyton Manning was 11 for 16 for 163 yards passing and a TD while Russell Wilson went 8-for-12 for 127 yards and two scores.

9. The Broncos set an NFL record with 606 points scored this season. Not one of the next eight teams on the all-time season scoring list went on to win the Super Bowl.

10. The team that controls the clock usually wins. Teams that have a superior time of possession have won nine of the last 12 Super Bowls SU. The Seahawks have averaged 29:59 minutes of possession in their two playoff games while the Broncos have averaged over 35:30 minutes of possession in their two postseason games.

Total

11. The Seattle Seahawks have given up only 30 points twice in two seasons ? a Week 5 loss at Indianapolis and a 30-28 loss to the Atlanta Falcons in last year?s divisional playoff round. Denver has scored at least 30 points in 12 of 18 games this season.

12. According to the website Advanced NFL Stats, temperatures of 25 degrees or less affect play calling. The same website says a winds of 15 mph or stronger also affects play calling.

13. Terry McAulay was named head official for Super Bowl XLVIII. McAulay presided over both Super Bowl XXXIX, in which the Patriots beat the Eagles 24-21 as 7-point favorites and Super Bowl XLIII in which the Steelers beat the Cardinals 27-23 as 6.5-point favorites. In Super Bowl XXXIX, there were 10 penalties called for 82 yards total. In Super Bowl XLIII, there were 18 penalties for 182 yards total.

14. Weather Underground isn?t predicting a major storm but is expecting ?a frontal system that with colder air retreating, all precipitation types, from snow, to sleet, to rain, are on the table with this system.?

15. Cold weather and frozen fields could push both teams' preparations indoors which coaches agree is not ideal because the synthetic field is harder on their players? legs.

16. In 10 playoff games there have only been seven pass interference calls made. Seattle is the most penalized teams in terms of pass interference calls with 13 in 18 games for a total of 232 yards. Denver is the second biggest beneficiary of pass interference calls with 14 calls against for 215 yards.

17. Eight of the past 12 Super Bowl winners were flagged for more penalty yards than the loser. Seattle was the most penalized team during the regular season with 7.9 per game while Denver was 30 of 34 with 7.1 per game.

18. Seattle has given up an NFL-low 231 points this year with only 101 of those points coming in the second half.

19. Peyton Manning has averaged 295 yards and has thrown 19 touchdowns versus 10 interceptions in his last eight games in sub 40-degree weather.

20. Broncos had a touchdown drive of 7 minutes, one second against the San Diego Chargers to go with scoring drives of 7:50 and 7:52 Sunday against the Patriots. Those are the three longest scoring drives of the season for the Broncos. Denver is slowing down its pace on offense, compared to a hurried no-huddle attack in the regular season.

Props

21. The winning QB has been Super Bowl MVP in six of the last seven games. Peyton Manning is currently the oddsmakers' favorite at 8/5 while Russell Wilson is next at 13/4.

22. After the quarterbacks, Marshawn Lynch is, at 6/1, the oddsmakers? favorite to life the MVP trophy. No running back has been named MVP since Terrell Davis was in 1998.

23. The total for how many times Peyton Manning will say ?Omaha? is 27.5. The Broncos QB used it 44 times in the divisional round versus San Diego and 31 versus New England.

24. The AFC has won the last two coin tosses in a row. Before that the NFC had won 13 straight.

25. "Heads" has been the right call in the last five Super Bowls and six of the last seven.

Seattle Seahawks

26. Seattle WR Percy Harvin was given the all clear to return to practice after suffering a concussion versus the Saints and did so this past Wednesday. He still needs to be given medical clearance to play Sunday.

27. Russell Wilson is leaving no stone unturned in preparation for the big game. The Seattle QB is anticipating 56 different balls to be used during the game and the larger Super Bowl emblem will make the ball slicker than usual.

28. The Seahawks defense has held standout tight ends Jimmy Graham and Vernon Davis to a combined three catches and 24 yards in their two playoff games. Denver TEs Julius Thomas and Jacob Tamme were instrumental in the team?s AFC Championship win making 10 catches for 109 yards and two TDs.

29. Pete Carroll intends on keeping the competition for starting left guard open through the week leading up to the big game with Dan Carpenter, Michael Bowie, and Paul McQuistan all vying for the position.

30. With Harvin in the lineup the Seahawks will, at times, be able to lineup with at least three wide receivers. They have had such a formation on only 12 first-down attempts, 16 second-down attempts, and 24 third downs.

31. This will be Seattle?s third trip to Meadowlands in the last three years. They beat the Giants 36-25 as 10-point underdogs in 2011 and 23-0 as 9.5-point favorites in December. The O/U is 1-1 in those games both times with a 43.5-point total.

32. Russell Wilson is 8-1 ATS as an underdog as the Seahawks starter.

33. Percy Harvin faced the Broncos as a member of the Minnesota Vikings racking up a career-high 175 yards from scrimmage. One hundred of those yards came on a pair of touchdown catches covering 52 and 48 yards.

34. The Seahawks were dead last, converting only 49 percent of chances when facing third and fourth-and-two to convert or a goal-to-go situation inside the two-yard line.

Denver Broncos

35. The Denver Broncos gave up the third-most receiving yards to tight ends this season. Seattle TE Zach Miller caught only 33 passes for 387 yards and five TDs but was most prolific in December with 11 catches for 139 yards and two TDs.

36. Denver kicker Matt Prater missed three straight days of practice because of illness but managed to fly with the team to New York Sunday. Team took precautions to ensure Prater didn?t pass anything on.

37. Defenses have made nearly 200 pressure calls versus Peyton Manning this season. He has been sacked only five times on these occasions while passing for 14 touchdowns and five interceptions.

38. Denver RB Knowshon Moreno was listed as questionable with a rib injury suffered in the fourth quarter of the AFC Championship Game. Moreno says he will be good to go Sunday and doesn?t expect needing to wear any additional padding.

39. The Broncos run game averaged 30 rushes and five yards per carry in their three cold weather games this season. Overall, Denver averaged almost 29 carries per game for just 4.1 yards per carry over the regular season.

40. The Broncos offense has given the ball away 28 times in 18 games while the Seahawks defense have 42 takeaways.

41. Denver has almost 500 snaps of no-huddle offense this season with 89 so far in the postseason. They have scored 57 touchdowns from this package in 18 games this season.

42. Denver kicker Matt Prater was so prolific through the postseason that, when combined with the Mile High air, the Denver Broncos? special teams did not field a kick return all playoffs. It is expected that Percy Harvin, the league?s best kick returner in 2011 and 2012 will be healthy enough to return kickoffs this Sunday.

43. Manning has been touched only once this postseason and has not been sacked.

44. Broncos WR DeMaryius Thomas welcomes the opportunity to face All-Pro cornerback Richard Sherman despite Sherman not allowing a reception this postseason as well as having the best defensive passer rating of any defensive back this season at 47.3. The second-lowest opposing passer rating was Seattle?s Byron Maxwell at 47.8.

45. Denver was 4-1 SU and ATS this season against teams with a Top-10 rushing offense. The Over is 4-1 in those games.

46. Broncos offensive line consultant Alex Gibbs was Seattle?s assistant head coach and offensive line coach in 2010 and worked with Seahawks offensive line coach Tom Cable in Atlanta in 2006.

47. The Broncos are 8-2 SU in 10 games that Peyton Manning has worn a glove this season, throwing 33 touchdowns against five interceptions.

48. Since the Broncos were tagged for 177 yards on the ground in week 15, they have allowed the opposing team to rush for 87, 64, 65, and 64 yards respectively the past four games. The Broncos are 3-1 ATS in those games and the under is 4-0.

 

[Scrapman]

NFL's Biggest Betting Mismatches: Super Bowl XLVIII
By Jason Logan
**************** (knock it off w/ links to other sites !) : admin

Each week, Jason Logan breaks down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches for Super Bowl XLVIII:

Broncos? slower pace vs. Seahawks? organized chaos

Like the bachelor-turned-family man, the Broncos are trading in their sports car for a reliable mini-van. Denver has undergone a dramatic change in pace this postseason, leaving the up-tempo attack behind for a slower, more deliberate offense. That?s panned out as back-to-back Under wins in the playoffs. The Broncos? three longest drives of the season have come against San Diego and New England, lasting 7:01, 7:50, and 7:52. They?ve dominated time of possession, hanging on to the football for over 35 minutes in both wins.

Seattle will be so jacked up on defense, the worst thing the Broncos can do to the Seahawks is take their time - kind of like that feeling when you and your lady are about to get it on, and she runs to the bathroom ?for a second?. Seattle?s anxious stop unit could get lulled to sleep by Peyton Manning?s methodical playcalling, and the longer Seattle?s defense is on the field, the more worn down they?ll get.

Runnin? Russell Wilson vs. Broncos? dual-threat weakness

The Broncos faced a handful of mobile QBs this season and gave up some big gains for the most part. Denver allowed Terrelle Pryor to scramble for 85 yards on 13 carries in two meetings, couldn?t stop Alex Smith from rushing for 98 yards on nine attempts in their two games versus the Chiefs, watched Mike Vick tack on 41 yards on eight runs in Week 4?s win over the Eagles, and gave up 29 yards and a rushing TD on four runs to Andrew Luck in the loss to the Colts. And Denver got off the hook against a one-legged RG3 in Week 8.

Russell Wilson?s passing game has declined the past few games, completing only 58 percent of his passes and topping the 200-yard mark just twice in his last six games. But while Wilson?s arm may be a little shaky in the Super Bowl, his legs could do some serious damage to Denver. He?s rushed for 539 yards, picking up 5.6 yards per carry. He?s only added 16 yards on the ground this postseason but was the third-best rushing QB in the NFL ? behind Cam Newton and Pryor ? this season.

Broncos? flag-flying offense vs. Seahawks? over-aggressive defense

OK conspiracy theorist. This one is right in your wheelhouse. What?s better for TV: A high-scoring or low-scoring Super Bowl? And, in a season where we?ve seen an endless stream of ticky-tack calls against defenders, there?s no reason to believe Super Bowl XLVIII won?t be any different. Will Roger Goodell put the bug in the referees? ear when it comes to keeping the points ? and revenue - flowing? For the sake of the Seahawks and their backers, I hope not.

Before you sprint to the comment section to call me whatever insult this site?s filters won?t let you type, hear me out. The Broncos forced 14 pass interference calls ? tied for most in the league ? for 215 yards. Denver also drew nine defensive holding penalties ? another NFL high - for a total of 40 free yards. The Seahawks? aggressive defense was flagged for pass interference 13 times ? tied for the most ? giving up 232 yards and was whistled for holding 11 times ? tied again for the most ? handing opposing offenses 55 yards.

Seahawks? home-run hitter Percy Harvin vs. Broncos? big-play problems

Percy Harvin is one of those players who may only touch the ball a handful of times during a game, but ends up having the biggest impact on the outcome. Harvin is ready to roll after getting his eggs scrambled against the Saints in the NFC Divisional Round, his first game back from a hip injury. When healthy, the speedy WR is a game changer and can strike for big plays. The last time he faced the Broncos, as a member of the Vikings, Harvin had TD catches of 52 and 48 yards.

The Broncos defense is getting better, holding their last four opponents to 17 points or less. But that has a lot to do with Manning milking the clock and keeping opposing offenses on the sidelines. Denver?s deepest, darkest secret on defense is its susceptibility to big plays downfield. The Broncos have constantly allowed teams to convert on big gains, giving up 61 passes of 20 or more yards ? ranked fifth worst in the NFL. They?ve also allowed their last three opponents to convert on 40 percent of their third downs, including allowing the Patriots to go 6 for 12 on third down.


Super Sunday!
By Jim Feist
************

It?s been a while! Seattle was last in the Super Bowl after the 2005 campaign while we haven?t seen Denver here since the late 1990s with some guy named John Elway behind center. Back in August the Broncos were 6-to-1 and the Seahawks 17-to-2 to win the Super Bowl, both ranked in the Top 5, so it?s the ?NFL Year of the Chalk.?

We had been in a golden age for the AFC for a while, almost as if the pendulum had swung. During the 1980s and much of the 90s, the NFC dominated, winning 15 of 16 Super Bowls, including 13 in a row. That changed in 1998 when Denver upset Green Bay, 31-24. Since then, the AFC has won 10 of the last 16, including last year wit the Ravens, though the Saints, Packers and Giants won the previous three.

What we have in 2014 is finesse versus physical, the high flying modern QB against the old fashioned, powerhouse defense. We also have the first outdoor game in cold weather since the 1970s when the Steelers and Vikings played in 39 degree temperatures (Tulane stadium).

We?ve seen the Colts and Saints meet in the Super Bowl, the top two offensive teams, the pass-happy Patriots, and even the Arizona Cardinals wining it with Kurt Warner and Larry Fitzgerald. But let?s face it: Defense is still King.

The Giants won two titles with great defense, topping the Patriots,(PSSST PATRIOTS LOWEST RANKED DEFENSE EVER BOTH TIMES VS GIANTS OOOOO I LOVE ONE WAY WRITERS)

and last year the Ravens and 49ers were physical, punishing defenses, topping finesse teams in the conference championships. Remember that when the Packers and Steelers squared off three years ago they were ranked No. 1 and No. 2 in points allowed, so defense is still very much alive and dominating.(LOL kinda put foot in mouth here they both scored over 30 points Where the fuck was the defense at?)


The Seahawks hope to continue a trend: The underdog is 9-3 ATS the last 12 Super Bowls, winning six times. Here?s a look at what to expect this weekend as America?s unofficial national holiday, the Super Bowl, kicks off.

What the Broncos want to do: If the game is an uptempo track meet, the Broncos have the best lineup on the planet with 37-year old Peyton Manning (55 TDs, 10 INTs, 5,477 yard and his record setting passing attack with WR Demaryius Thomas (1,430 yards, 14 TDs), WR Eric Decker (1,288 yards),
WR Wes Welker (778) and TE Julius Thomas (788). No one has really been able to slow them down. The over is 34-16-2 in the Broncos last 52 vs. a team with a winning record.
The defense, though, has been a mixed bag, decent against the run, but suspect in the secondary. They?ve had injuries, too, losing speedy

DE Von Miller and their top cornerback just two weeks ago, Chris Harris. They have been in every game with their only losses by 7, 6 and 3 points. The Broncos are 4-9 ATS on fieldturf and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 playoff games.

What the Seahawks want to do: Forget about any track meet. This is an old-fashioned style of team from the 1920s (or maybe the 1985 Bears) that prefers to knock the tar out of opponents from the opening kickoff through the first quarter. They are a physical, dominating defense that can stuff the run, rush the passer, and for good measure the athletic secondary is No. 1 against the pass. Even in their worst defensive game, a 34-28 loss at Indy, the defense allowed just 317 total yards and still forced 2 turnovers.

The offense does whatever is needed, a conservative group behind quiet, cerebral QB Russell Wilson (26 TDs, 9 picks, 3,357 yards), who chipped in 539 yards rushing, and power back Marshawn Lynch (1,257 yds, 4.2 ypc), a bruising back who seems to get better in the fourth quarter as defensive players tire.

Seattle is on a 34-16-1 ATS run, plus a 7-0 run under the total. The Seahawks are 26-10 ATS in their last 36 games on fieldturf, 13-4 ATS against a team with a winning record. The last 38 years the ?over? has gone 22-16 in Super Bowl play, though the under is 6-3 the last nine years.

 

[Scrapman]

Advantage - Denver
By Kevin Rogers
*****************

Following a devastating double-overtime loss to the Ravens in last season's divisional playoffs, the Broncos rebounded by winning the AFC Championship this season. Denver has put together a 28-7 record the last two seasons with Peyton Manning at the helm, as the Broncos seek their first Super Bowl title since 1998.

When many fans point to Denver's success, the first thing to highlight is the home-field advantage playing at Sports Authority Field. The Broncos won nine of 10 games at home this season, while limiting the Chargers and Patriots to a combined 33 points in two playoff victories. However, Denver put together a 6-2 record on the road this season, with the two losses coming against playoff squads New England and Indianapolis. Granted, the Broncos squandered a 24-0 lead in the loss to the Patriots, while scoring 33 points in Manning's return to the Hoosier State in a 39-33 defeat to the Colts.

The Broncos' offense put up at least 30 points in 13 games this season, including 41 points against the Giants at Met Life Stadium back in Week 2, the site of the Super Bowl. Denver won all four games against the NFC, while breaking the 40-point barrier in all four victories against the Eagles, Giants, Redskins, and Cowboys.

When analyzing Manning's playoff history, the star quarterback lost his first three postseason games with the Colts from 1999-2002, but won nine of his next 16 in Indianapolis, including all four in the 2006 playoffs. In Denver, Manning has won two of three playoff contests, although he has not played on the road yet with the Broncos in the postseason.

NFL Expert and VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson has some interesting statistics that backs taking the Broncos, "The Denver offense posted record setting numbers this season, scoring over 36 points per game on the season. Those figures include two playoff games that featured lower numbers but featured the Broncos in complete control. If you take away the three games against San Diego, the one team that seemed to be able to slow Denver down, the Broncos averaged 39 points per game."

On the opposite side of the ball, Nelson breaks down how well the Broncos have performed of late, "Denver's defense does not have Seattle's overall statistical profile, but down the stretch and in the playoffs, Denver was arguably more impressive on defense. In the two playoff games, the Broncos allowed just three points combined in the first three quarters of the two games as almost all of the scoring for San Diego and New England came with the game all but in hand for the Broncos. The teams that did give the Denver defense problems were mostly strong down field passing teams, the Cowboys and Giants early in the season, the Colts, and a Patriots squad with Rob Gronkowski was some of the most productive teams against the Broncos."

VegasInsider.com handicapper Antony Dinero says the reliance of Manning is key for the Broncos' success, "Denver's fortunes ride on Manning's ability to make the correct adjustments at the line of scrimmage, something he does as well as anyone in NFL history.

The challenge is doing it against a Seahawks defense that flies around and feasts on turnovers, so he'll have to be conservative, riding the running game and picking his spots. If he can avoid turnovers and give the Broncos a chance to steal this late, you have to like his chances of avoiding a Colin Kaepernick-type mistake in the Super Bowl's late stages, setting himself up to win a second title."

Nelson mentions John Fox's defense has slowed opponents down on the ground, "Denver actually has featured a superior run defense to Seattle and none of the last four foes for the Broncos have topped 87 yards rushing with the two playoff opponents combining for only 129 yards rushing. If Seattle is unable to run the ball effectively, they will have little chance of keeping up with the Broncos."

Favorites of 3? points or less in Super Bowl history have put together a strong 8-3 SU/ATS record, as the last team in this situation was Green Bay three years ago holding off Pittsburgh, 31-25 as three-point 'chalk.' Three of the last four Super Bowls played outdoors have gone to the AFC, including Pittsburgh (SB XLIII), Indianapolis (XLI), and New England (XXIX).

 

[Scrapman]

ADDING huge intangible now

ADDING huge intangible now

DID Not Know this saw in other forum THE Chinese NEW year for 2014 which is based on 12 year cycle is THE YEAR OF THE HORSE :mj07:
like omg if this dosent lean you to Broncos nothing will

but we all have our own resons to bet the team we fell is best equipped to COVER the spread!

 

[Scrapman]

BTW those of you teasing this game how's this sound

Broncos + 4 1/2 over 40 1/2

maybe middle this Seahawks + 9 1/2 over 40 1/2

 

[WildBillPicks7]

The Machinespicks

Super Bowl
30* Denver Broncos (ML)
1st Half - Under 24

Props
Julius Thomas Under 55.5 Receiving Yards

Seattle more penalties than Denver

Marshawn Lynch Under 91.5 Rushing Yards

Marshawn Lynch Under 15.5 Receiving Yards

Monte Ball Under 10.5 Receiving Yards

S. Hauschka Over 1.5 Field Goals