freeze plays.......Sunday

[dr. freeze]

Seattle at Wiz.
Seattle has played well on road trip....only to wear down on the tail end of back to backers......I think they are the superior team here and would be favored by a half dozen on a neutral court. They have the athletes to guard Jordan and Hamilton and the edge goes to Seattle with Vin over Popeye inside. I am taking Seattle, who is going to want to get one ending the road trip after having several slip away. +1

Lakers/Magic. The 2nd best player in the NBA in my opinion is McGrady (right behind Garnett). Having said that, I am going to pass on this one although the Lakers laying single digits at the forum with no one to guard shaq (the Ewing matchup will make me cry i think) makes this tempting to take the Late show. Add that too the fact that Miller just came back and he and Hill have little court time together I think the Magic are still kind of in the preseason. If I were playing this, I would take the Lakers at -7.5 but I am not gonna because I think they may already aave started to lose interest in the regular season...and if Orlando is making their shots, they cover. If they don't, the Lakers cover. I am not going to bet on that prop.....

Tor -3 at Denver......Toronto played last night at Utah, was not tested too much, and got out of there with a convincing win. The Nuggets played well against the Rockets largely due to the lack of perimeter defense of the Rockets as Mobley, Francis, and Norris (who should be in a CBA uniform) cannot defend. Well, VC isn't noted for his defense either. I am thinking about playing the Nuggets as a home underdog but that all hinges on Van Exel. Van Exel MUST play well or they get blown out of the building.....I am gonna say he does at home and the Raptors with the Dream wear out in the high altitude of Denver......playing Denver +3

Portland at Detroit......Cliff Robinson against his old mates.....look for him to play well. Detroit is getting 2 at home. The Blazers are old and playing in a back to back after they faded down the stretch.....a new season for Detroit and Stack wants to be elevated to the elite of the NBA.....stoudamire returns last night playing poorly after missing with tendinitis....can't help but think that must still be bothering him......i like the Pistons +2 in this one.....

1,2,3Doggy Sunday
Seattle +1 POD (or as we now call them the freeze frame)
Detroit +2
Denver +3

 

[dr. freeze]

actually you can find better lines than that so if you like any of the plays, shop around and you can get better......good luck......

 

[jderrida]

Dr. Freeze:

Well, here are the trends:

Seattle is 1-12 ATS when playing their last away game before at least a three game
homestand.
Washington is 6-0 O/U when on a 2+ game SU and ATS losing streak.

Portland is 4-1 ATS vs Detroit.
Detroit is 0-6 ATS when their next game is home vs Dallas.

Toronto is 0-5 O/U as an away favorite.
Denver is 0-7 ATS when they won their previous game by at least twenty points.

Orlando is 0-7 ATS when they won their previous game by at least ten points.
LA Lakers are 4-0-1 ATS vs Orlando.

I don't think that the every trend today will hold, the catch is, which one do you think will not hold? I am not sure about it, but here are some games between 3 match-ups with the road team being on the far right:
( SEA at WASH )
Wash. 101 Sea. 104 (5/197.5)Wash./O
Sea. 107 Wash. 87 (-10.5/198.5)Sea./U
Sea. 114 Wash. 85 (-7.5/197.5) Sea./O
Wash. 95 Sea. 109 (1/203)Sea./O
Sea. 92 Wash. 96 (-4.5/181.5)Wash./O

So, in the last 5 the O/U is 4-1 to the over and SEA has cashed the last 2 roadies.

( TOR at DEN )

2/8/2001 Tor. 99 Den. 92 -6/201.5 Tor./U
12/28/2000 Den. 93 Tor. 94 -2.5/200 Tor./U
2/18/2000 Tor. 91 Den. 95 -10/205 Den./U
11/24/1999 Den. 109 Tor. 84 -1.5/200 Den./U
3/19/1998 Tor. 104 Den. 103 -6/195 Den./O
1/29/1998 Den. 80 Tor. 84 4.5/188 Den./U

So,in the 6 the O/U 5-1 to the Under and DEN has gone 2-1 ats at home.

( ORL at LA )

3/18/2001 Orl. 90 LAL 95 2.5/204.5 LAL/U
2/25/2001 LAL 106 Orl. 100 -6/207 P/U
2/18/2000 Orl. 99 LAL 107 5.5/200.5 LAL/O
12/5/1999 LAL 117 Orl. 100 -9.5/192.5 LAL/O
3/21/1999 Orl. 104 LAL 115 2/186.5 LAL/O

So, in the last 5 the total has gone 3-2 on the over and LA has cashed 1 and pushed 1 at home.

I have a system where if the dog is between 2 and 3.5 pts, take them ML and get back the juice on the play (usually between +120 and +165) as I have found that rarely (although it is possible) do you win or lose by that margin and you really increase the value of the dog that way. Also, an old capper once told me regarding totals that teams where players fast during Ramadan tend to produce less offense, so they are good UND looks.

Personally, I think taking the DEN UND could be a good play as well as LA -? as the public seems to be pushing the line down, so I would wait and get LA at the cheapest price at home you can, which means you may have to buy it right before game time.

As far as your picks, I told myself that I would not bet for or against the WIZ this year and I am sticking to it after they covered in NY. Also, DEN is a bi-polar team and you never now who is going to show up, but I do lean DEN tonight on the ML.
Also, Seattle could be the trend buster tonight and you may be right on as I do lean that way, but no action on the WIZ.

Anyway, I am not playing anything tonight (maybe that DEN UND if the line is pumped up some more), so I just wanted to put my two cents in, but I do see more value on some totals tonight. Good luck with your plays. I look forward to future dialogue.

Regards,
JD

[This message has been edited by jderrida (edited 11-11-2001).]

 

[MrMoney]

Norris (who should be in a CBA uniform) cannot defend

I would not even go that far. When the Rockets signed him to that extended contract, I flipped out. This guy is worthless. Watching him play drives me crazy.

The 2nd best player in the NBA in my opinion is McGrady (right behind Garnett).

I think you could also throw Kobe into that mix. Also to be considered is Tim Duncan. Those four players are in my opinion the best.

Listed below are my NBA Teasers/plays for today:

Nov 11 10:23am 3 Team Teaser -
1. Basketball - Detroit Pistons - spread +5 (-110)
for the entire game held on Nov 11 at 6:05pm [pending]
2. Basketball - Denver Nuggets - spread +11 (-110)
for the entire game held on Nov 11 at 9:05pm [pending]
3. Basketball - Los Angeles Lakers - spread -1 (-110)
for the entire game held on Nov 11 at 9:35pm [pending]

Nov 11 10:46am Basketball -
1. Basketball - Detroit Pistons - spread -2 (-120)
for the entire game held on Nov 11 at 6:05pm [pending]

Nov 11 11:56am 2 Team Teaser -
1. Basketball - Detroit Pistons - spread +2? (-110)
for the entire game held on Nov 11 at 6:05pm [pending]
2. Basketball - Los Angeles Lakers - spread -2? (-110)
for the entire game held on Nov 11 at 9:35pm [pending]

----------

Good luck today!

MM

 

[dr. freeze]

i made the mistake of reading the line wrong for the Detroit/Portland game....think i will stay away......

got Denver +4 to try to cap off the Sunday 2-0 after easy win in Washington.......

 

[gsp]

Good luck

 

[jderrida]

Dr. Freeze:

Nice start today. Well, I guess I shouldn't have before I head off to Tahoe, but tonight, I went with a couple of leisure bets and a possible middle:

DEN ML +150
DEN UND 202
LA OVR 206.5
ALL 250's

OAK -5 1100
SEA +8 1100

why not risk 100 to win 2000

Anyway, take care,
JD

 

[dr. freeze]

great middle value......don't really like the Den. under play though.....but don't like the over either.....

really like the ML play......very much so.....i think it has a 50/50 chance of hitting which gives great value....if i was playing a total in this game i would play the over first half cuz i think Tor is gonna tire the second half and slow it down a bit...

Lakers over is a good play but i am not playin it.....better play than the under....

 

[jbxscash]

Cmon my friend. What kind of comment is that. Have u not seen the Lakers play this year. Can't believe u would make a stupid comment like that. Neither one of those guys can stand on the same floor as kobe or shaq. Look at the wins and look at the stats. Who can guard Kobe or Shaq, please tell me. I even couldn't sit back and not respond to that one. Take a real good look at the comment again and get back with me.

 

[jderrida]

FREEZE:

Yes, good middle value if OAK doesn't demolish them, but good value. I know the UND in denver looks sketchy, but Carter had 40+ night against the JAZZ yesterday, so I hope A) he doesn't score that much again and B) that high elevation runs the Raptors out of gas by the middle of the 3rd period. LA is a tip from a friend of mine and I always kill myself when he's right and I don't play the game he gives me.

GL,
JD

 

[dr. freeze]

Originally posted by jbxscash:
Cmon my friend. What kind of comment is that. Have u not seen the Lakers play this year. Can't believe u would make a stupid comment like that. Neither one of those guys can stand on the same floor as kobe or shaq. Look at the wins and look at the stats. Who can guard Kobe or Shaq, please tell me. I even couldn't sit back and not respond to that one. Take a real good look at the comment again and get back with me.

what are you talking about?

 

[thisisbad]

I think he's talking about you commenting on the best players in the NBA being T-Mac and Garnett? Only a guess though.

 

[dr. freeze]

if it is about Garnett and McGrady, then i stick to that comment......

Shaq is just a big guy...he has limited skills....yes no one can guard him because he is so big...

I like McGrady better than Kobe and think time will tell who is the better player....

That being said....who can guard garnett or mcgrady?

garnett gets so little exposure and i go to lots of NBA games and have seen this guy 4 times and shaq 6 times and kobe 3 times and i think garnett brings much more to the table....he is impossible to guard and presents so much havoc defensively it is hard to describe -- you just gotta watch him in person.....

 

[dr. freeze]

hope no one took Detroit today or did anything towards them based on the read i gave......i misread the line and i am sorry for that and i hope people caught it.....

i will be right more often than wrong on the correct play though and thankfully got 2 back today after going 2-2 yesterday due to a very bad read on the Chi/Char. game....i made a very very bad pick there and hope to keep those to a minimum......

I am still wondering what happened in the NJ/Cle game on Sat. and was wondering if anyone saw it.....how was Cle. able to keep it close? if anyone could provide insight please let me know.....thanks.....

 

[ndnfan]

Doc...hey, keep up the good work in the NBA.

As far as that Cav's-Nets game on Sat. Cav's kept it close for a couple of reasons. One being Chris Mihm who had a career high 20, but the main reason is Lamond Murray who had I believe 13 in the 4th quarter. I'm not real proud of the fact that I'm a Cav's fan, but I do watch or listen to most their games, and they just do not play very well as a team. But when someone like Lamond Murray gets hot, you just cannot stop the guy. I remember last season, he was unstoppable for about a 10 game stretch. Of course that was early in the season last year.
I pretty much made a living off betting against the Cav's the 2nd half of last season. Hopefully, they improve, but I won't hesitate to bet against them when the team goes in those oft funks.

GL to you this season and keep up the good work.

[This message has been edited by ndnfan (edited 11-12-2001).]

 

[dr. freeze]

thanks for the info.....i agree with that about LaMond Murray -- he can be tough....had him on my fantasy team for half they year waiting for him to get hot again.......never did happen though....

not much too that team and i always like to take something away from my losses and almost always spend a lot of time trying to figure out what went wrong.....appreciate it and hope i can provide help this year!!!!!