freeze plays..........Thurs

[dr. freeze]

Don't really like the slate too much but found a couple things worth taking a look at......

First we have to begin with the injury report......congrats to all you got on the Knicks before the line jump....
Something really troubles me about this one though.....why has the total been going down? Yes, Mourning and Grant score, but these guys slow the game down and play defense! I think the OVER has become the obvious play......so obvious, that it seems to be one of those I wonder if this is what it seems plays......I expect lots of fouling and an uptempo game which should make the 164 points attainable by mid 4th quarter.....We also have the pretty good chance of a route here in which the garbage guys could run and gun too........Could get a slow tempo garbage game that both of these teams give us, but with the injuries, i will take my chances with this over......

Freeze Frame POD NY OVER 164

Rest of the games i like the lines on all fo them.......no plays.......if ya have to, maybe play a couple home dogs on the ML's to satisfy your thirsts and hope they hit.....

 

[thisisbad]

Not in your league by any means as a capper, but i agree totally with your assesment on the total (uh oh, you might be in trouble). Without the big guys, they will have to speed thing up a little more, and i defiently think there will be more scoring than in the past. This total just seems way too low.

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You ever wonder who was the first guy to look at a Cow and think "I'll just drink whatever comes out of these things!"

 

[dr. freeze]

actually, i see you have won your last 3 games and that is better than me so i am not in your league....and am glad to see you like it too......good luck to us!!!!!

 

[Phelps]

Love your plays Freeze. I definately agree with you on this pick. GL

 

[mj]

Freeze: I got it at 164, and I went for the whole farm on this one, I hope it pays....

good luck to you...

keep up the good work

 

[dr. freeze]

i would like to thank all the heat players for throwing up an 8 spot in the 4th quarter.......good grief, all that was needed was 72 points the 2nd half and these two sorry ass teams scored 65......some teams score that by themselves in a half......thats the breaks i guess....92 the first half needing 72 the second seemed like a pretty good proposition....but i guess the bricklayers came out......still i think it was a solid play.....you can't do much when a team puts up 8 points for ya in a quarter......

 

[thisisbad]

The heat went 3 for 14 in that final quarter, and scoreless for the final 3:15....

I agree freeze it seemed solid, i'm sorry it turned out like it did. I thought it was money in the bank going into that final quarter.

Anyway, good write up and keep up the good work, you'll get em tomorrow

 

[THISclose]

Dr. Freeze,
Good call on the over. Not being a smartass either. I had it and it looked like a lock at half. Unreal. Just the other day I had the under on the Utah game. Locked up tight(so I thought) They explode for 40 something points in 6:12 in the 4th! Cost me a figgin' fortune. I was watching tonight and could barely believe my eyes. That's the way it's been going for moi lately. I need to adopt the George Costanza theory and do the exact opposite of what I think(I know this isn't effective, just kiddin')!

) GL....THISclose P.S..Keep the picks coming, solid work, bad luck.

 

[gsp]

Freeze, I'm going to point this out for some of the younger cappers that still think they should have won that game last night. You and I kinow better but we outsmarted ourselves last night. One thing that kept bothering me about the over yesterday was that both these teams only shoot 70 to 75 shots per game and hit around 40%. If the two teams had shot 150 times and hit 40% we would have had 120 points, meaning that another 46 would have had to come from somewhere else. That's a lot for these two team to come up with from the 3 and foul line. Every time I've seen Mia, they can't hit a foul shot. Because of all the injuries, I thought the game plans might change. I convinced myself that one or both might run but with these two coaches there is no basis for that thinking. The actual over-all game went just like it was supposed to. We would have had to get lucky to win. We were asking two teams to be something they are not. If it looks like a duck, flys like a duck, quacks like a duck, it's probably a duck. Good luck tonight

 

[Nolan Dalla]

GSP:

You have a very constructive way of looking at a loss. Before a game, I always try to play an imaginary game in my head, visualizing what might happen (sort of like visualizing a golf shot before it happens). Will TEAM A be able to move inside. Will TEAM B be forced to shoot from the perimeter? Etc. Last night I had a similar situation, where everythign points to at the very least a CLOSE game between DEN and ORL. Of course, the Magic took a 15-5 lead early and never trailed. I shook my head wondering what in the hell happened where the Nuggets could lose by 19 at home to a team at the end of a 4 game West road trip. It was just bizarre! So, I went back and saw that the Nuggets, instead of shotting the higher percentage baskets, went for the three points all night. Dink. Dink. Dink. Off the rim each time. They missed 11 three point shots. Of course, that was not the only reason Denver got crsuhed, only that I FAILED TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT taht Denver likes to shoot threes (which can be disasterous if they have an off-snight). I can't stand three-point shooting teams, they are simply too inconsistent. Any team that shoots more than ten attempts a game slmost always loses -- its' a BAD percentage strategy. So, what I learned from my dumb bet ont he Nuggets was to go back and look at the way they lost and what I may have missed. You (and others) did the same thing with the Knicks-Heat total last night and I really think that's a very useful learning tool for us all. In fct, I like reading a BREAKDOWN of why we may have lost a game because it can be useful for the future.

Well done.

Nolan Dalla

 

[dr. freeze]

GSP -- I somewhat agree......I thought there would be a few more shots than normal, less shots challenged -- especially for NY, and more fouling due to a lack of interior defense......

i agree with the take that van gundy and riles are pretty much set in their styles.....especially van gundy, given the team he has and the unwillingness to create an uptempo game....but i figured Riles might try last night -- he has pretty good success using this before....lol.....but probably just figured he would stick to Heat basketball and figure he would try to shorten the game to have his best chance....

anyways, i am still trying to figure how to take this loss myself......but am leaning more towards a bad play after reading your comments.....thanks i appreciate them.....

 

[dr. freeze]

by the way.....i am not really that good of handicapper and i hate the thought of people blindly following my plays.......i am learning just like everyone here....so any insight into my losing plays is especially appreciated because the best thing you can do to become better is to figure out why you lost and adjust accordingly......i DO know that.....thanks.....

 

[gsp]

Freeze, everything you just said was my thinking yesterday. That's what I meant by outsmarting ourselves. We assumed that because of all the injuries, somebody would have to change and they didn't. If I had gone strickly by my capping, it would have been either the under or a pass. We'll get them today.

Nolan, I had Orl at a +3' adv and Det at +2 adv yesterday but didn't believe either play so decided to pass. NY under wasn't the only thing I outsmarted myself on yesterday.

 

[Innavation]

Gsp---i found myself doing that a lot lately(over-analyzation)----last year in Basketball i could look at a line and Know right away who everyone(public) would like---and i had a pretty good idea on who would cover!!! So the last few days i look at the line and mostly off of feel of where the line is i make my descsion(with a few other factors)--but i was getting too caught up in everyone else's opinion!!! Sure i do not want to be on the opposite side of a solid capper every night but at the same time i feel like i can beat(and i know you guys do to) this game so i must stick to my theory's... FOr Ex. ---tonight Seton Hall is MInus-1 against New ORleans---if you would ask the average "JOE" who he likes in this game i gurantee he will say Seton Hall 9 times out of 10!!! I do like good information but i feel like the line dictates this good information!!! If i see Miami of Flordia gettin pts. from Syaracuse then i would take Syracuse!!! I know it sounds crazy but i have had a lot success this way!!! My skill is not so much looking and breaking down the game and knowing what is going to happen!! but obseverving the board and finding the traps or the easy money games so to speak!!! and going against these easy money games!!1 Tonight i like San FRan a bit-- i did not post it but i do like it!!! --just because of the line!!!-- Just a few thoughts---making smart- thought out descisions is great--and playing the game is like breathing to me!! BUt watch the lines for each team game to game--and go back and look at lines previous---I have theory's on this and they give winners!!! GOod Luck

 

[Innavation]

Originally posted by Innavation:
Gsp---i found myself doing that a lot lately(over-analyzation)----last year in Basketball i could look at a line and Know right away who everyone(public) would like---and i had a pretty good idea on who would cover!!! So the last few days i look at the line and mostly off of feel of where the line is i make my descsion(with a few other factors)--but i was getting too caught up in everyone else's opinion!!! Sure i do not want to be on the opposite side of a solid capper every night but at the same time i feel like i can beat(and i know you guys do to) this game so i must stick to my theory's... FOr Ex. ---tonight Seton Hall is MInus-1 against New ORleans---if you would ask the average "JOE" who he likes in this game i gurantee he will say Seton Hall 9 times out of 10!!! I do like good information but i feel like the line dictates this good information!!! If i see Miami of Flordia gettin pts. from Syaracuse then i would take Syracuse!!! I know it sounds crazy but i have had a lot success this way!!! My skill is not so much looking and breaking down the game and knowing what is going to happen!! but obseverving the board and finding the traps or the easy money games so to speak!!! and going against these easy money games!!1 Tonight i like San FRan a bit-- i did not post it but i do like it!!! --just because of the line!!!-- Just a few thoughts---making smart- thought out descisions is great--and playing the game is like breathing to me!! BUt watch the lines for each team game to game--and go back and look at lines previous---I have theory's on this and they give winners!!! GOod Luck

This is why i always say my percent must come Up!! JUmp On!!! Because i have many theory's that apply in certain situations!!! IF 1 of my theory's percent is at 45% than i know the next time i see a game that falls into this theory(the 1 that is at 45%) than i know the percent is way too low and i make larger bets because it must come up!!1 I do not have any written data on this--or any certain Percent that it is at!! I am fairly young--but have been doing this my whole life--in high=school---COllege--i was a bookie---and i have heard and seen everything!!! BUt i know that 8-0 team on the road minus -1 is going to lose that game more times than it wins!!!! THat may sound unclear, but the experience bettors know what i mean!!!