Limited time for write-ups (wife on back). And that's mine, not hers...
NRL:
Season to date: 14-12 (53.84%)
(Home team listed first)
Game 1) Northern Eagles v Wests Tigers, 19.05CST
Eagles -7.5
Almost fell over my tongue when I first saw this line! Maybe it's bevause for the first time in 4 weeks the Eagles managed not to concede over 30 points last week - they lost 28-22 to the Sharks. The Eagles are 3-4 ATS, and notably, 0-2 ATS as home favourites. They haven't covered as a chalk this season in three opportunities. This line, I fathom, must be based on two things - the Eagles' secind half effort against the Sharks as they were down 22-0 at halftime, and the bookies' feel that the Tigers cannot continue to come up with the goods if they are not in "siege mentality" as they were last week following the Hopoate shambles, beating the Raiders 26-24, or three weeks ago when they thumped the Storm 40-10 after the Field/McGuinness drug controversy. So let's look at the contrary points of view. The Eagles were horrendous in that first half and should have trailed by nearly 40 after the Sharks had at least two tries disallowed on arguable ref's calls. Their second half comeback was based on instructions from coach Peter Sharp "to start enjoying yourself" - hardly inspirational coaching from Sharp, who does not seem to have the respect of his players. Overall match stats saw the Eagles get a miserly 43% possession, a completion rate of just 54% with 28 missed tackles. Season-wise, the Tigers have a small edge statistically, particularly in the possession stakes - 52% to 47%. I don't believe the Tigers will have abandoned their "us against the world" approach in one week and their forwards should easily match-up v the Eagles. Against a poorly performed side, in a competition in which the dogs are 28-21 ATS and the road dogs 19-14 ATS, the Tigers are getting too many points.
PLAY WESTS TIGERS +7.5
Super 12:
Season to date: Shit, can't remember off hand but it's not bad; check last weekend's wrap.
Game 1) Hurricanes v ACT, Wellington, 17:05CST
Hurricanes +5.5
The Hurricanes kept their season alive last weekend with a stunning road win over the three-times defending champs the Crusaders. Their star-studded backline finally clicked with new second-five Paul Steinmetz sparking them and their abrasive forwards stayed out of enough trouble to match up with the Canterbury pack. Now they return home to face the pre-season title favourites in another must-win encounter to keep semifinal hopes alive. 'Canes are 2-4 ATS, Brumbies 4-2. 'Canes are 0-2 ATS at home, but were favoured both times by sizeable margins. Brumbies are 2-1 ATS on the road after covering late against the Reds last weekend when winning SU in Queensland. The Brumbies can afford to lose this match and would still be comfortably in the top four, and while I don't expect anythin else than a 100% effort from the well-drilled, multi-skilled visitors, the desperation of the 'Canes in front of a frenzied and full home stadium has to count a lot. No major injury worries for either side, 'Canes have livewire flanker Rodney So'oalio back while fullback Christian Cullen is nearing his lethal best after a slow start. If the home team pack can get 50% of the possession and the 'Canes apply a broken-play type game to deny the Brumbies their gameplan of continuous phase pressure, they stand a good chance of winning SU. Aggressive bettors may like to pursue the ML (+150). For me, I'll take the points.
PLAY HURRICANES +5.5
Back tomorrow with Sat matches.
GLTA
NRL:
Season to date: 14-12 (53.84%)
(Home team listed first)
Game 1) Northern Eagles v Wests Tigers, 19.05CST
Eagles -7.5
Almost fell over my tongue when I first saw this line! Maybe it's bevause for the first time in 4 weeks the Eagles managed not to concede over 30 points last week - they lost 28-22 to the Sharks. The Eagles are 3-4 ATS, and notably, 0-2 ATS as home favourites. They haven't covered as a chalk this season in three opportunities. This line, I fathom, must be based on two things - the Eagles' secind half effort against the Sharks as they were down 22-0 at halftime, and the bookies' feel that the Tigers cannot continue to come up with the goods if they are not in "siege mentality" as they were last week following the Hopoate shambles, beating the Raiders 26-24, or three weeks ago when they thumped the Storm 40-10 after the Field/McGuinness drug controversy. So let's look at the contrary points of view. The Eagles were horrendous in that first half and should have trailed by nearly 40 after the Sharks had at least two tries disallowed on arguable ref's calls. Their second half comeback was based on instructions from coach Peter Sharp "to start enjoying yourself" - hardly inspirational coaching from Sharp, who does not seem to have the respect of his players. Overall match stats saw the Eagles get a miserly 43% possession, a completion rate of just 54% with 28 missed tackles. Season-wise, the Tigers have a small edge statistically, particularly in the possession stakes - 52% to 47%. I don't believe the Tigers will have abandoned their "us against the world" approach in one week and their forwards should easily match-up v the Eagles. Against a poorly performed side, in a competition in which the dogs are 28-21 ATS and the road dogs 19-14 ATS, the Tigers are getting too many points.
PLAY WESTS TIGERS +7.5
Super 12:
Season to date: Shit, can't remember off hand but it's not bad; check last weekend's wrap.
Game 1) Hurricanes v ACT, Wellington, 17:05CST
Hurricanes +5.5
The Hurricanes kept their season alive last weekend with a stunning road win over the three-times defending champs the Crusaders. Their star-studded backline finally clicked with new second-five Paul Steinmetz sparking them and their abrasive forwards stayed out of enough trouble to match up with the Canterbury pack. Now they return home to face the pre-season title favourites in another must-win encounter to keep semifinal hopes alive. 'Canes are 2-4 ATS, Brumbies 4-2. 'Canes are 0-2 ATS at home, but were favoured both times by sizeable margins. Brumbies are 2-1 ATS on the road after covering late against the Reds last weekend when winning SU in Queensland. The Brumbies can afford to lose this match and would still be comfortably in the top four, and while I don't expect anythin else than a 100% effort from the well-drilled, multi-skilled visitors, the desperation of the 'Canes in front of a frenzied and full home stadium has to count a lot. No major injury worries for either side, 'Canes have livewire flanker Rodney So'oalio back while fullback Christian Cullen is nearing his lethal best after a slow start. If the home team pack can get 50% of the possession and the 'Canes apply a broken-play type game to deny the Brumbies their gameplan of continuous phase pressure, they stand a good chance of winning SU. Aggressive bettors may like to pursue the ML (+150). For me, I'll take the points.
PLAY HURRICANES +5.5
Back tomorrow with Sat matches.
GLTA
