07:35 PM NHL [3] New York Rangers -130
09:05 PM NHL [6] Colorado Avalanche -170
08:00 PM CFB [115] San Diego State -4-110
08:05 PM MLB [902] TOTAL u8.5 -110 (Cleveland Indians vrs Chicago Cubs) (Tomlin/Hendricks)
08:05 PM NBA [709] Charlotte Hornets -1-110
09:35 PM NBA [715] Golden State Warriors -11-110
1 unit bet pays 36 ....betdsi line
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Carolina Hurricanes have not won their home opener since Oct. 10, 2008
Oilers are 7-21 in the last 28 meetings in Vancouver.
Oklahoma City has won 17 of the last 20 meetings vs Phoenix (yeah, not the same OKC team of the past - but Suns neither!)
N.Y. Rangers -1? +264 over CAROLINA
OT included. We have choices here with the Rangers. We can play them straight up at a short price or we can spot just a half puck while taking back a pretty sweet price. However, we?re spotting 1? goals this time because that price is too good to pass up and so is the situation. Besides, if the Rangers are up a goal, the Hurricanes will pull their goalie, which gives us a great chance to cash anyway. Frankly, we trust the Rangers will be up by three goals or more at that point and here?s why: Carolina has refused to address their weak goaltending situation. Cam Ward is old and slow and rarely has a good game. Eddie Lack might be worse. Lack struggles with every puck. The ?Canes are trying desperately to give Lack the starting job but he has squandered every opportunity for well over a year. Lack has been so bad that Ward with his 0-4 record, 4.03 GAA and .848 save percentage gets this start. That?s not all. Carolina opens at home after seven straight on the road to open the year, which included four games in Western Canada. The Hurricanes figure to be tired. Their state of mind also comes into question after a 1-6 start to the year. When you have weak goaltending that hasn?t made a big stop all season and surrenders frequent softies, it resonates throughout and it also puts everyone on their heels. This is a physically and mentally tired host.
Enter the New York Rangers, a team that spent a ton of time in their own zone last year but has done a complete 180 this season. The Rangers powerful group of forwards have been relentless in their forecheck and keeping the opposition pinned in their own end. Playing defense takes up far more energy than playing offense and by the third period (or sooner) these teams playing the Rangers look like they?re killing a penalty when in fact they are not. The Rangers have more high quality scoring chances (88) than any team in the NHL and it?s not close. Edmonton with 71 is second. While the Rangers defense leaves much to be desired, the commitment from their deep group of forwards to play two-way hockey is paying off in spades. What we?re seeing from the Rangers in the early going is a bunch of really good players all peaking at the same time and perhaps all headed for career years. There are no breaks when the Rangers roll out the most balanced group of forwards in the NHL. You take all those high quality scoring chances against Cam Ward and chances are we?ll be seeing Eddie Lack tonight too. Rangers, in a great frame of mind and in a great spot too, roll.
Winnipeg +145 over COLORADO
OT included. Colorado has been off for nearly a week after dropping a 5-2 decision to the Panthers last Saturday night. That?s too big a break to ignore. The Avs picked up impressive wins in Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh but with this much time off so early in the season, any positive momentum they may have built up could be long gone. Colorado?s expectations were low coming into the year so it is way too early to start spotting big prices with them based on a couple of victories. Perhaps they snuck up on Tampa and Pittsburgh but whatever the case, the Avs are not established enough to warrant this price tag, especially against a dangerous team like the Jets, who have been very active this week.
While their opponents have sat idle all week, the Jets have been busy with last Sunday's Heritage Classic and a pair of games with the Stars. Winnipeg split the home and home against Dallas with a 4-1 victory last night. Patrik Laine is turning out to be quite the consolation prize as the second overall pick behind Auston Matthews. Laine leads the team in goals and added two power play markers last night. We?ve said it before and we?ll say it again that Winnipeg is loaded with talent. They are always a tweak or two away from dominating games and they are always a threat to win. The market tends to overreact when a team is playing on back to back nights but we see too much value in Winnipeg tonight to worry about such things. After a big and much-needed win last night, the Jets probably can't wait to get back to the rink. Regardless, we?re not passing up prices like this on Winnipeg when the team they are playing is not their equal and whose stock is too high here. Overlay.
Ottawa +115 over CALGARY
OT included. The Flames were slow out of the gate by winning just one of their first six games. Much of that had to do with their poor power play (just 1/25 in those games) and a struggling Brian Elliot between the pipes. As a result of their slow start, expectations were not high for Calgary when they went into St. Louis and Chicago this past week. The Flames were a big dog to both the ?Hawks and Blues but returned home with all four points after back to back wins. Now the Flames go from a +170 underdog to a -135 favorite (that's what it opened as) in the span of two days. Calgary has not played well at home this season with just one win in four tries. The last time the Flames were priced in this range, they lost to the Hurricanes, 4-2 and are now the only team in the NHL to lose to the 'Canes thus far.
Ottawa has lost the services of goaltender Craig Anderson but we are not going to overreact to his absence from its lineup. Andrew Hammond is a very capable backup and he now moves into the #1 spot, where he can thrive even more with more playing time. The Sens are 4-2 and they are the only team to beat the Canadiens this season. They started out this Western road trip with a 3-0 win in Vancouver to set the tone for the rest of the way. The Senators are an extremely dangerous group that is feeling pretty good about things after a nice start. In its four wins, Ottawa has scored 19 times, which includes those two aforementioned victories over two of the stingiest teams in the NHL in Montreal and Vancouver. The Sens have plenty of appeal as a pooch against a beatable Calgary team that is laboring at home and that has allowed more high quality scoring chances against than any team in the NHL with the exception of the Coyotes. We must play the value here.
SOUTH FLORIDA -6? over Navy
What the Midshipmen have been able to accomplish so far this season is impressive. They blew out Memphis last Saturday after shocking Houston in Week 5. Cracking the Top 25 with a dominating running attack and a 5-1 record has all eyes on Navy for the first time in quite a while. The last time the Midshipmen finished the season ranked was in 1978. If they win out, Navy could be playing in the ACC title game but this looks like the week reality sets in for the Middies. While they are averaging 293 rushing yards a game, the Midshipmen are totally one sided with their option offense.
You take a team that rarely gets national exposure, tell them they are a top-25 team and then put them into the national spotlight on a Friday night during prime time and it changes everything. The players get too jacked up. Their heads get too big and they all want to be a hero. We see it all the time from smaller programs. We saw it when App State was supposed to compete with Miami but instead got their asses handed to them in a complete wipeout. There are literally dozens of smaller programs that got into the polls and subsequently crashed the very next week because if it. Navy has come out of nowhere since their big upset win over the Cougars. The market is being fooled into taking these points but we know better.
The Bulls lost last week as a -5? point road favorite at Temple and allowed 322 yards on the ground in the process. USF was blown out 46-30 against the Owls and its poor performance has many questioning how they can possibly stop Navy?s fourth ranked rushing attack. We?re not so worried. The total in this game is 63 so fireworks are likely. USF brings a fierce offensive game plan of their own with quarterback Quinton Flowers leading the way and being a big time weapon. Flowers was contained last week against Temple, as the Bulls only had 277 yards of total offense but this line strongly suggests he won?t be silenced two weeks in a row. USF?s value in the market is low after a disappointing performance last week while Navy has sailed to a pair of impressive victories their last two games. What the market will see is a rare chance to grab significant points against an unranked opponent. What we see is a the exact opposite in that the oddsmakers are begging you to take the points by hanging that proverbial carrot right in front of your nose. Do not take it. The line says USF is the right play here so that is how we'll proceed.
San Diego St. at Utah St.
Play: San Diego St. -5.5
There could be some rain or some wind in Logan, Utah Friday evening. Nothing too severe is expected but the fact is that any such weather would be a help to the road team anyway. The Aztecs like to pound the ball on the ground and they also play fantastic defense. San Diego State has not had more than 26 pass attempts in a single game this season. The Aztecs have averaged just 18.2 pass attempts the past five weeks. In stark contrast to San Diego State's offense, the Aggies have thrown the ball at least 35 times in 4 of their past 6 games. The point is that any weather impacts will mostly be felt by the home team. No matter the weather, the fact is that it will be tough for Utah State to move the ball against a San Diego State defense that ranks among the tops in the nation. The Aztecs D had one bad game this season and that was an awful one against California. However, in their other 6 games San Diego State has allowed a ridiculously low 232.7 yards of TOTAL offense per game. Last season the Aztecs knocked off the Aggies by a margin of 34 points. Even though they are on the road for this one, the key thing to keep in mind with San Diego State is they've been winning everywhere in conference action. The Aztecs have won 14 straight conference games. Included in that stretch is 5 straight road wins in Mountain West action with the average win by a margin of victory of 22.6 points! Overall, in MWC road games, San Diego State is on an 11-3 ATS run. Even though Utah State has a solid run defense, the Aztecs (with RB Pumphrey leading the way) have averaged 252.7 rushing yards per game on the season and will give the Aggies a very tough test here. Last season San Diego State ran all over them for 336 yards and we expect more of the same in this season's match-up! Utah State is 0-3 ATS in home games with a total set in a range of 42.5 to 45 points and, with points likely to be at a premium in this one, the Aggies are once again unlikely to be able to do enough on offense to stay inside the number as they fall to 0-4 ATS in this situation.
San Diego St/Utah St Under 43?
San Diego State features one of the best defenses in the country. The Aztecs have allowed a total of 13 points in their last 3 games combined. On the season, they are holding opponents to a mere 286 ypg. Nearly 100-yards fewer than what their opponents average (373).
Hard to see the Aggies being the team to crack this defense. Utah State is only averaging 25.4 ppg and rank 83rd in total offense at just 359.6 ypg. The two best defenses they have faced to this point are USC and Boise State. The Aggies managed just 7 points against the Trojans 10 points against the Broncos.
The key here is that I think Utah State?s defense is capable of keeping the Aztecs offense in check. San Diego State has one of the best rushing attacks in the country. They come in 14th in the nation at 252.7 ypg. However, they also have one of the worst passing games in the country, ranking 114th at just 165.6 ypg.
Utah State?s defense has been solid against the run this season. While they are giving up 152 ypg, they are allowing just 3.6 yards/carry. They are also holding opposing teams to just 5.0 yards/play. Playing at home will definitely help the intensity of the defense. It?s also a lot easier to stop a team who is one dimensional.
Possessions should be limited for both sides, which is a key factor when looking to bet the UNDER. The Aztecs also aren?t a team who looks to poor it on late. In their 42-3 win over San Jose State, they didn?t score once in the 4th quarter.
Under is 15-5 in San Diego State?s last 20 conference games. It?s also 12-2 in their last 14 against a team with a losing record and 6-0 in their last 6 against teams who force 1 or fewer turnovers/game.
Indians vs. Cubs
Play: Under 8
The World Series is tied up 1-1 heading into Friday's Game #3, but the best wagering opportunity isn't on who's going to win and take the series lead, but on the UNDER 8 Runs. We play the 3rd game of this series, but this pitching match-up is strong enough to be most teams in MLB's ace vs ace. Chicago starts Hendricks, who's gone "Under" in 12 of 15 games (3-12 Over/Under) this year when facing a team owning a winning record. In his 3 postseason starts, Hendricks has allowed 0, 1 and 2 Earned Runs. He squares off against Cleveland's Tomlin, who's coming off back-to-back Playoff victories in which he allowed 1 and 2 Earned Runs. Toss in the Tribe's bull pen of Miller and Allen and don't expect much scoring from either team on a very cold night in Chicago. With the temperature listed at 60 degrees, there' won't be much "jump" on the ball.
Cubs -1? +112
Chicago's 8-4 in the playoffs and their 4 losses have come against Bumgarner, Kershaw, Hill and Kluber, four of the best starters in the game this season. Six of their 8 wins have come by 2 runs or more and with Tomlin on the mound for Cleveland in this one and Hendricks going for Chicago, I think the Cubs on the run line is the best play here. The wind will be blowing out tonight and that only gives Chicago a bigger edge here. Tomlin's big weakness is he gives up too many homers and Hendricks is one of the best in the game at keeping the ball in the park. Playing at home with this crowd is another huge edge for Chicago. Note they are outscoring opponents at home in the playoffs 19-7.
Raptors +3
We won with the Cavs in their opener against the Knicks on Tuesday but I won't hesitate to switch gears and go against the defending champs as they head to Toronto on Friday night.
Keep in mind, we also cashed a ticket with the Raptors in their blowout win over the Pistons two nights ago.
It certainly appears that the Cavs and Raps are on a collision course once again in the Eastern Conference this season. I look for Toronto to make an early statement on Friday night - this one means a little more to the Raps in my opinion and motivation is certainly always a big factor in the NBA, not to mention home court.
The Cavs depth will be tested in this one. The Raps never relented against the Pistons in their home opener and while the same could be said for the Cavs, they were up against a more disjointed opponent in the Knicks, who are working in a lot of new faces.
Toronto certainly held its own against Cleveland last season and I expect nothing different in 2016-17. The case could be made that the wrong team is favored here so I'll grab all the points I can get.
HOU @ DAL -1.5
Man, this Houston defense is going to be horrendous this year. Allowing 120 to the Lakers is pretty much indicative of that. Of course it doesn?t help that their best defender, Patrick Beverley, is out for the next 4-6 weeks with a knee injury. Of course, Dallas might not be any better, as they allowed 130 (115 in regulation) to the Pacers. Keep in mind that these two teams play each other again on Sunday, this time in Houston. Based on what happens tonight, could be an opportunity to fade the winner, as the losing team could/should make adjustments. For this one, I?d give the home team a slight edge. Lean: DAL -1.5
Houston Rockets +1
The Houston Rockets lost their opener to the Los Angeles Lakers 114-120. However, they dominated in the preseason, and they should take down the Dallas Mavericks tonight. The Rockets' downfall was shooting just 24.1% from 3-point range against the Lakers, and they should do much better here with all of the talent they have on the perimeter. The Mavs have one of the worst rosters in the Western Conference. Most of their players are past their primes, and Harrison Barnes was a terrible get in the offseason for how much they paid for him. I look for the Rockets to run the Mavs out of the gym tonight. The Rockets are 90-57 ATS in their last 147 road games off an upset loss as a favorite.
LAL @ UTA -8.5
Gordon Hayward is out until mid/late November as is Alec Burks. Derrick Favors practiced fully though on Thursday and will see how he feels during the shoot-around to determine his playing status. Hayward was Utah?s leading scorer last year while Favors was 2nd, so it?d be big to get him back on the court at least. Even still I doubt he plays his full allotment of minutes. As far as the Lakers are concerned, it?s a little hard to take a team seriously when they?re starting Nick Young. Expect a lot of volatility with this squad this year. Overall, Utah is a superior team and I think if Favors plays, you have to like their chances in this one. Lean: UTA -8.5
Friday NBA?
I don?t believe the markets are in the right place for the game flows that I will expect from both the Suns and Thunder this season, so with 210 starting to become available it will be #708 Oklahoma City/Phoenix Under (8:05 Eastern), this one good at 209 or better.
Phoenix will need to scrap on defense to be successful because offensive continuity will be a work in progress long into the season, if indeed this chemistry ever does work. The defense has a chance, however, with Tyson Chandler protecting the rim and decent athleticism on the perimeter, and Earl Watson putting them through a boot-camp type of practice after the dismal opening loss to the Kings should bring the proper intensity level tonight.
Meanwhile I went into detail about the OKC defense and tempo adjustments here on Wednesday, and as long as Andre Roberson and Domantas Sabonis are the starting forwards the Thunder are built to be much more of a grinder than in the past (though I was surprised to see Sabonis take three shots beyond the arc, not believing he had the range for beyond the NBA line). But also note the end-game rotation that we may see often from Billy Donovan, Steven Adams/Enes Kanter playing together through much of the fourth quarter at Philadelphia. That also helps to slow things down, and the fact that they will be battling Chandler tonight means not much of anything around the basket coming easily for either team.
GSW @ NOP +10
I?m wondering if all games following Warriors losses, should be auto-bet on the Dubs. A team as dominant as they should be, is expected to bounce back after defeats, especially this early in the season. Without Holiday, Evans, and Pondexter (excellent 3PT shooter), this team is serious devoid of talent. Yes, AD is awesome, but he can?t do it alone. If Warriors game-plan to slow him down, there just isn?t enough talent to pick up the slack. Lean: GSW -10
Charlotte vs. Miami
Pick: Charlotte
The Charlotte Hornets had a 3-2 lead over the Miami Heat in last year?s opening round but failed to win Game 6 at home. Then, back in Miami for Game 7, got crushed by a score of 106-73. The Hornets will get to play an early-season grudge match tonight, when they travel to Miami to take on the Heat. It should be noted that Luol Deng, Gerald Green, Joe Johnson and Dwyane Wade combined for 52 points in the Heat's Game 7 win last season but all have departed in the offseason as the franchise has decided to rebuild around center Hassan Whiteside and PG Goran Dragic.
Whiteside signed a four-year, $98.4 million contract over the summer and scored 18 points with 14 rebounds and four blocks in 31 minutes in Wednesday?s 108-96 win in the season opener at Orlando. Dragic, who scored 25 points in the Game 7 win last spring, put up 16 points in the opener. Justice Winslow, the second-year small forward from Duke, moved into starting lineup to put up 15 points plus had eight rebounds. It?s expected that Dion Waiters (nine points) and the 24-year-old Tyler Johnson (15 points) are in line for bigger roles in the backcourt this season.
Charlotte added veteran center Roy Hibbert over the summer, who is trying to resurrect his career back in the Eastern Conference. The 29-year-old delivered 15 points, nine rebounds and five blocks in his team debut and impressed his new teammates. "He?s such a security blanket back there," forward Marvin Williams told the Charlotte Observer of Hibbert. "You know if you get beaten, there?s always someone back there to cover for you. It makes you more confident to take chances." Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is fully healthy and ready to take some of the scoring load off Kemba Walker's shoulders and the former overall No. 2 pick scored a team-high 23 points on 10-of-18 shooting to go with 14 rebounds in the Hornets' 107-96 win at Milwaukee to open the season on Wednesday (Walker had 17 points).
I like the ?playoff revenge angle? early in the season and will take the points with the Hornets.
Saturday:
Purdue +11.5
First off Penn St might be hung over like Johnny Manziel after New Year's.....PSU beating Ohio St in dramatic fashion was sweet....Now the Lions make the top 25....It's a trend that is very well known...Teams that crack the top 25 after a big key win struggle the next week...Expectations + letdown hangover....Not to mention Purdue now comes home after back to back losses....Purdue actually played very well last week in Nebraska....Cornhuskers trailed for a large part of that game and the Purdue defense actually played very well....Penn St now has to travel which won't help them on top of it...Purdue now has a chance to play a top 25 team two weeks in a row...Upset is possible, but the Boilermakers at home might be the way to go here....Purdue has faced, Iowa, Cinn & Nebraska...some pretty good tests along the way...PSU has had some very tough defensive games.i worry they are flat as a pancake in this one.
Purdue (+12) over Penn State
Purdue would love to wrap up October with a big win. They have played well the last couple weeks. They easily covered at Nebraska last week and only lost to Iowa by 14 points the week before. Now the Boilermakers are at home against a Penn State team that is due for a big letdown. The Nittany Lions are coming off one of the biggest upsets of the season so far, beating Ohio State thanks to a blocked kick TD. That game was at home in primetime last week. Now they have to go on the road to play a noon game in Indiana against a weak Purdue team that has just one league win. Penn State has won seven straight in this series. I don't think that they are going to take Purdue seriously. This should be a sloppy game and a low-scoring one. And I think that works to Purdue's advantage. Penn State has only played two road games this year. They lost both. The Nittany Lions are off three straight home games and I think that they will struggle in their first road trip in over one month and Penn State is 3-14 ATS in its last 17 road games. The Boilermakers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games after a loss. Take the points and look for a sloppy game.
Purdue +14
Purdue has been more competitive under interim coach Gerad Parker and catches Penn State in a monster letdown spot.
The Nittany Lions are on the road after just upsetting previously undefeated Ohio State at home last Saturday. It's a double whammy for Penn State, which is 3-12 ATS after covering a game and 3-14-2 ATS in its last 19 away contests.
Penn State hasn't traveled in four weeks. This is only its third road game of the season. The Nittany Lions are 0-2 on the road giving up an average of 45 1/2 points to Pittsburgh and Michigan. Penn State is 0-7-1 ATS the past eight times it has been a road favorite and has lost straight-up seven straight times away from home under James Franklin.
Parker's first game as interim head coach was last week. Purdue was a 24-point road 'dog to then ninth-ranked and now seventh-ranked Nebraska. The Boilermakers played hard, led 14-10 at halftime and gave the Cornhuskers a scare before losing, 27-14. The Boilermakers have covered seven of the last eight times following a loss.
Purdue has some decent skill position talent that can take advantage of Penn State giving up an average of 4.7 yards per rush and 203 yards rushing a game. The Boilermakers have been weak defensively, but received a boost from 345-pound tackle Lorenzo Neal, who recorded three tackles behind the line of scrimmage versus the Cornhuskers. Parker should have Purdue playing hard again this week with the team still alive for a bowl berth.
Arizona St / Oregon Over 78.5
Two teams that have been trending to the over will meet when the Arizona St Sun Devils hit the road to take on the Oregon Ducks at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, OR on Saturday night. Arizona St. has posted a 6-2 record to the over in their last eight games following a game where the allowed less than 100 yards on the ground and they have gone an excellent 8-2 to the over in their last 10 games following an ATS win. Oregon has been an over team as well in the spot they are in here on Saturday as they have posted a 5-1 record in their last six games where they faced a team with a winning record and they have gone a perfect 7-0 to the over in their last seven Pac-12 games. They have also gone 23-6-2 to the over in their last 31 games following a straight up loss and they are an insane 44-17-1 to the over in their last 62 home games. Throw in the fact that these two teams have gone 5-1 to the over in their last six head-to-head meetings, including a 61-55 win by the Ducks last season in Tempe, and that's where we'll have our play as we expect this one to turn into an old fashioned Pac-12 shootout in Eugene on Saturday night.
Cincinnati at Temple
Play: Temple -7
The Owls have been playing some excellent football of late and they are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games. In their last game they beat South Florida 46-30 as they held the number 8th ranked offense to 354 yards well under their average of 487. All year it has been defense for Temple and they are ranked 17th in yards allowed per game. Temple has won the stat battle in their last 5 games so it is obvious that their offense is looking way better than it did at the beginning of the year. As for Cincinnati, the Bearcats got themselves a much needed victory last week against East Carolina. They need to come up with 2 more wins to become bowl eligible, but unfortunately they will have to wait till next week as the Owls just seem to be too strong and on a roll. Temple has the stronger offense 49th to 74th and the better defense 38th to 76th. The oddsmaker has this line set at 7 at the time of this writing and we will be happy to LAY IT.
CINCINNATI AT TEMPLE
PLAY: TEMPLE -7
Now that -7 is widely available on this game, I think it?s time to step in with a play on Temple.
Cincinnati managed to get a win last week against East Carolina, but it was really mistakes by the Pirates that got the Bearcats into the victory column.
I was very impressed with Temple in its win over South Florida. Certainly they were helped by the fact USF cannot stop the run, but the fact is the Owls dominated that game and were pretty easy winners. Aside from the opening game disaster vs. Army, this is proving to be a very solid Temple entry. The Owls lost the stats against the Cadets and also by a bit in the loss at Penn State. But Temple has won that comparison in all their other games.
The Bearcats have gone back to Gunner Kiel at QB, and I thought he was okay last week against East Carolina, but he?ll face a better defense here. Cincinnati has a very good ballhawking secondary, and Phillip Walker is a QB who van get inaccurate at times, so there is some worry on that count.
But as I played Temple last week and got the win, I like the idea of coming right back with them here, and the Owls are a team with positive momentum presently. Now that I?m not having to spot more than a TD, Temple minus the points moves into the play on column.
Boston College at NC State
Play: NC State -16
Boston College is likely thankful that this Saturday?s opponent neither has a dual threat quarterback nor do they run an up-tempo system. Last week the Eagles saw their third opponent this season with those traits and their defense was again hammered as Syracuse gained 532 total yards. Combined, Eric Dungey and Syracuse, Deshaun Watson and Clemson and Jerod Evans and Virginia Tech have gained a total of 1,511 yards and scored 133 points. Ryan Finley and the NC State Wolfpack don?t have the threat of the zone read option and they don?t go as fast as the previously mentioned teams which philosophically suits the Boston College defensive assets better. Relying upon their ground game led by Matt Dayes and the passing of Finley, NC State is averaging 5.6 yards per play which is equal to Clemson and a shade better than Syracuse?s 5.5.
The Wolpack defense takes a monumental step down in class here after facing the explosive Clemson and Louisville offenses the past two weeks. Boston College continued their miserable offensive ways last week gaining only 287 yards against a porous Syracuse defense and in the process, starting quarterback Patrick Towles injured his hamstring late in the game. It?s unclear whether Towles will be able to go this week or not (listed as questionable) but his combined 175 yards per game (134.6 ypg passing, 40.4 ypg rushing), 48.6% completions and 7-4 TD-INT ratio haven?t been difference makers anyway. The hope that new OC/QB coach Scott Loeffler could resurrect Towles college career and this offense?s production has become a major disappointment as they?ve averaged just 253.5 ypg in their four ACC contests.
Aside from the fundamentals which totally favor NC State on each side of the ball, there?s the fact that they need two more wins to become bowl eligible and they?re only going to be favored once more this season. 6-6 and a minor bowl is not what they set out for in 2016 but if they don?t get there, Dave Doeren could be an offseason casualty. Steve Addazio is more likely to end up in that spot unless his team comes up with an exceptionally strong finish. The Eagles have covered only two games all season and those were against Buffalo and UMass. They?ve only been in this double-digit home underdog role once and Clemson destroyed them 56-10. State is a physical team which figures to win in the trenches and coast to a much needed victory somewhere in the 33-13 range.
UL-Monroe vs. Arkansas State
Play: Arkansas State -20
Arkansas State is a team that is being overlooked somewhat because of their 0-4 start. The Red Wolves have since won two straight games and are playing with a week of rest and looked like a completely different football team two weeks when they held South Alabama to 7 points in a 17-7 win. This bye week now marks their second of the season as they had a week off before playing Georgia Southern in a weekday game. I feel this is a very advantageous part of their schedule, playing their 4th consecutive home game and a spot they can dominate against a struggling UL-Monroe team. The Red Wolves last went on the road September 16th at Utah State and have been camping at home ever since
Arkansas State is now 2-0 in the Sun Belt and looking to reclaim the championship after winning the Sun Belt title last year. The Red Wolves are 6-0 ATS the last 6 meetings against UL-Monroe. Arkansas State has won 80% of their games and covered 70% of the time from Game 6 and out over the last 5 years. They have now won 11 consecutive conference games after the win against South Alabama with ALL 11 wins coming by 10 points or more with an average score of 43-23. Arkansas State has finally got settled with a quarterback as that was their problem the first few games. Justice Hansen is an Oklahoma transfer who has a big arm. He has thrown 6 interceptions which is the one negative but I think he is the most talented QB in the Sun Belt and has turned the corner. The UL-Monroe secondary in not a threat and Hansen should have a field day behind one of the most experienced offensive lines in the country.
Monroe?s starting quarterback Garrett Smith is out with an injury. That leaves the job up to two freshmen quarterbacks and I can?t see either one doing much damage against a defense led by a bulk of juniors and seniors of Arkansas State. Chris Odom and Ja?von Rolland-Jones have combined for 8.5 sacks, 10.5 tackles for loss, and 5 QB hurries. Look for them to take advantage of a shaky UL-Monroe offensive line and force the young Monroe quarterback(s) out of the pocket which will lead to some bad throws and mistakes. All of this should lead into a few turnovers that the Red Wolves should capitalize on.
The UL-Monroe defense is giving up 297 rushing yards a game and 6.2 yards per rush as this is a defense that only returned 3 starters from last year and lost their entire front 7 from 2015. They only have 3 interceptions on the year They have not covered their last 4 games and are in a tough spot here playing their 5th road game of their last 7 games. It?s been a tough go for 1st year coach Matt Viator and his coordinators who all came from FCS schools.
Arkansas State has put up an average of 512 yards of offense the last 4 meetings, with an average final score of 43-18.
In the Sights, NFL?
Time to get an advance ticket for Sunday into play as well, and with the key precincts of Pinnacle and CRIS both having the Patriots at -5 available this morning it means #259 New England (1:00 Eastern) in play.
I don?t need to get redundant about the upside I see from the Patriots offense, that Brady/Gronkowski/Bennett triangle such a tactical headache for opponents to solve, yet in what is a bit of a market anomaly, what should be an over-priced team isn?t at this stage. To show some of that dilemma for opposing defenses, when Brady saw the way the Steelers were trying to adjust he found that it made things easy to just pound away with LeGarrette Blount, who ran for 127 yards and two TDs at 5.3 per attempt
Let?s attribute some of this line value to recent Buffalo results that don?t paint a proper portrait of the Bills ? in getting back-to-back wins over Los Angeles and San Francisco there were seemingly box scores of beauty, but the reality is that they caught the Rams without three starters in the DL, and the 49ers in their first full game with NaVorro Bowman, which tempers those numbers (for a meaningful comparison, look at what Tampa Bay just did to that San Fran defense, despite being without Doug Martin and Vince Jackson). And to further Buffalo being over-rated from the recent trilogy of games note that the 28-25 loss at Miami was a false scoreboard portrait ? the Dolphins controlled that one to the tune of 454-267 yards in total offense, at 6.7 vs. 4.9 per play.
New England does not have to do anything special to win by six or seven here, which shows the value of the price point, but anticipate a prime focus from the Patriots ? there is no love lost between Bill Belichick and Rex Ryan, and with that ugly home shutout loss to Buffalo generating some added spark, there is no hesitation backing Belichick?s 18-3 ATS run in division revenge games, that pattern simple not factored into this current price point.
09:05 PM NHL [6] Colorado Avalanche -170
08:00 PM CFB [115] San Diego State -4-110
08:05 PM MLB [902] TOTAL u8.5 -110 (Cleveland Indians vrs Chicago Cubs) (Tomlin/Hendricks)
08:05 PM NBA [709] Charlotte Hornets -1-110
09:35 PM NBA [715] Golden State Warriors -11-110
1 unit bet pays 36 ....betdsi line
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Carolina Hurricanes have not won their home opener since Oct. 10, 2008
Oilers are 7-21 in the last 28 meetings in Vancouver.
Oklahoma City has won 17 of the last 20 meetings vs Phoenix (yeah, not the same OKC team of the past - but Suns neither!)
N.Y. Rangers -1? +264 over CAROLINA
OT included. We have choices here with the Rangers. We can play them straight up at a short price or we can spot just a half puck while taking back a pretty sweet price. However, we?re spotting 1? goals this time because that price is too good to pass up and so is the situation. Besides, if the Rangers are up a goal, the Hurricanes will pull their goalie, which gives us a great chance to cash anyway. Frankly, we trust the Rangers will be up by three goals or more at that point and here?s why: Carolina has refused to address their weak goaltending situation. Cam Ward is old and slow and rarely has a good game. Eddie Lack might be worse. Lack struggles with every puck. The ?Canes are trying desperately to give Lack the starting job but he has squandered every opportunity for well over a year. Lack has been so bad that Ward with his 0-4 record, 4.03 GAA and .848 save percentage gets this start. That?s not all. Carolina opens at home after seven straight on the road to open the year, which included four games in Western Canada. The Hurricanes figure to be tired. Their state of mind also comes into question after a 1-6 start to the year. When you have weak goaltending that hasn?t made a big stop all season and surrenders frequent softies, it resonates throughout and it also puts everyone on their heels. This is a physically and mentally tired host.
Enter the New York Rangers, a team that spent a ton of time in their own zone last year but has done a complete 180 this season. The Rangers powerful group of forwards have been relentless in their forecheck and keeping the opposition pinned in their own end. Playing defense takes up far more energy than playing offense and by the third period (or sooner) these teams playing the Rangers look like they?re killing a penalty when in fact they are not. The Rangers have more high quality scoring chances (88) than any team in the NHL and it?s not close. Edmonton with 71 is second. While the Rangers defense leaves much to be desired, the commitment from their deep group of forwards to play two-way hockey is paying off in spades. What we?re seeing from the Rangers in the early going is a bunch of really good players all peaking at the same time and perhaps all headed for career years. There are no breaks when the Rangers roll out the most balanced group of forwards in the NHL. You take all those high quality scoring chances against Cam Ward and chances are we?ll be seeing Eddie Lack tonight too. Rangers, in a great frame of mind and in a great spot too, roll.
Winnipeg +145 over COLORADO
OT included. Colorado has been off for nearly a week after dropping a 5-2 decision to the Panthers last Saturday night. That?s too big a break to ignore. The Avs picked up impressive wins in Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh but with this much time off so early in the season, any positive momentum they may have built up could be long gone. Colorado?s expectations were low coming into the year so it is way too early to start spotting big prices with them based on a couple of victories. Perhaps they snuck up on Tampa and Pittsburgh but whatever the case, the Avs are not established enough to warrant this price tag, especially against a dangerous team like the Jets, who have been very active this week.
While their opponents have sat idle all week, the Jets have been busy with last Sunday's Heritage Classic and a pair of games with the Stars. Winnipeg split the home and home against Dallas with a 4-1 victory last night. Patrik Laine is turning out to be quite the consolation prize as the second overall pick behind Auston Matthews. Laine leads the team in goals and added two power play markers last night. We?ve said it before and we?ll say it again that Winnipeg is loaded with talent. They are always a tweak or two away from dominating games and they are always a threat to win. The market tends to overreact when a team is playing on back to back nights but we see too much value in Winnipeg tonight to worry about such things. After a big and much-needed win last night, the Jets probably can't wait to get back to the rink. Regardless, we?re not passing up prices like this on Winnipeg when the team they are playing is not their equal and whose stock is too high here. Overlay.
Ottawa +115 over CALGARY
OT included. The Flames were slow out of the gate by winning just one of their first six games. Much of that had to do with their poor power play (just 1/25 in those games) and a struggling Brian Elliot between the pipes. As a result of their slow start, expectations were not high for Calgary when they went into St. Louis and Chicago this past week. The Flames were a big dog to both the ?Hawks and Blues but returned home with all four points after back to back wins. Now the Flames go from a +170 underdog to a -135 favorite (that's what it opened as) in the span of two days. Calgary has not played well at home this season with just one win in four tries. The last time the Flames were priced in this range, they lost to the Hurricanes, 4-2 and are now the only team in the NHL to lose to the 'Canes thus far.
Ottawa has lost the services of goaltender Craig Anderson but we are not going to overreact to his absence from its lineup. Andrew Hammond is a very capable backup and he now moves into the #1 spot, where he can thrive even more with more playing time. The Sens are 4-2 and they are the only team to beat the Canadiens this season. They started out this Western road trip with a 3-0 win in Vancouver to set the tone for the rest of the way. The Senators are an extremely dangerous group that is feeling pretty good about things after a nice start. In its four wins, Ottawa has scored 19 times, which includes those two aforementioned victories over two of the stingiest teams in the NHL in Montreal and Vancouver. The Sens have plenty of appeal as a pooch against a beatable Calgary team that is laboring at home and that has allowed more high quality scoring chances against than any team in the NHL with the exception of the Coyotes. We must play the value here.
SOUTH FLORIDA -6? over Navy
What the Midshipmen have been able to accomplish so far this season is impressive. They blew out Memphis last Saturday after shocking Houston in Week 5. Cracking the Top 25 with a dominating running attack and a 5-1 record has all eyes on Navy for the first time in quite a while. The last time the Midshipmen finished the season ranked was in 1978. If they win out, Navy could be playing in the ACC title game but this looks like the week reality sets in for the Middies. While they are averaging 293 rushing yards a game, the Midshipmen are totally one sided with their option offense.
You take a team that rarely gets national exposure, tell them they are a top-25 team and then put them into the national spotlight on a Friday night during prime time and it changes everything. The players get too jacked up. Their heads get too big and they all want to be a hero. We see it all the time from smaller programs. We saw it when App State was supposed to compete with Miami but instead got their asses handed to them in a complete wipeout. There are literally dozens of smaller programs that got into the polls and subsequently crashed the very next week because if it. Navy has come out of nowhere since their big upset win over the Cougars. The market is being fooled into taking these points but we know better.
The Bulls lost last week as a -5? point road favorite at Temple and allowed 322 yards on the ground in the process. USF was blown out 46-30 against the Owls and its poor performance has many questioning how they can possibly stop Navy?s fourth ranked rushing attack. We?re not so worried. The total in this game is 63 so fireworks are likely. USF brings a fierce offensive game plan of their own with quarterback Quinton Flowers leading the way and being a big time weapon. Flowers was contained last week against Temple, as the Bulls only had 277 yards of total offense but this line strongly suggests he won?t be silenced two weeks in a row. USF?s value in the market is low after a disappointing performance last week while Navy has sailed to a pair of impressive victories their last two games. What the market will see is a rare chance to grab significant points against an unranked opponent. What we see is a the exact opposite in that the oddsmakers are begging you to take the points by hanging that proverbial carrot right in front of your nose. Do not take it. The line says USF is the right play here so that is how we'll proceed.
San Diego St. at Utah St.
Play: San Diego St. -5.5
There could be some rain or some wind in Logan, Utah Friday evening. Nothing too severe is expected but the fact is that any such weather would be a help to the road team anyway. The Aztecs like to pound the ball on the ground and they also play fantastic defense. San Diego State has not had more than 26 pass attempts in a single game this season. The Aztecs have averaged just 18.2 pass attempts the past five weeks. In stark contrast to San Diego State's offense, the Aggies have thrown the ball at least 35 times in 4 of their past 6 games. The point is that any weather impacts will mostly be felt by the home team. No matter the weather, the fact is that it will be tough for Utah State to move the ball against a San Diego State defense that ranks among the tops in the nation. The Aztecs D had one bad game this season and that was an awful one against California. However, in their other 6 games San Diego State has allowed a ridiculously low 232.7 yards of TOTAL offense per game. Last season the Aztecs knocked off the Aggies by a margin of 34 points. Even though they are on the road for this one, the key thing to keep in mind with San Diego State is they've been winning everywhere in conference action. The Aztecs have won 14 straight conference games. Included in that stretch is 5 straight road wins in Mountain West action with the average win by a margin of victory of 22.6 points! Overall, in MWC road games, San Diego State is on an 11-3 ATS run. Even though Utah State has a solid run defense, the Aztecs (with RB Pumphrey leading the way) have averaged 252.7 rushing yards per game on the season and will give the Aggies a very tough test here. Last season San Diego State ran all over them for 336 yards and we expect more of the same in this season's match-up! Utah State is 0-3 ATS in home games with a total set in a range of 42.5 to 45 points and, with points likely to be at a premium in this one, the Aggies are once again unlikely to be able to do enough on offense to stay inside the number as they fall to 0-4 ATS in this situation.
San Diego St/Utah St Under 43?
San Diego State features one of the best defenses in the country. The Aztecs have allowed a total of 13 points in their last 3 games combined. On the season, they are holding opponents to a mere 286 ypg. Nearly 100-yards fewer than what their opponents average (373).
Hard to see the Aggies being the team to crack this defense. Utah State is only averaging 25.4 ppg and rank 83rd in total offense at just 359.6 ypg. The two best defenses they have faced to this point are USC and Boise State. The Aggies managed just 7 points against the Trojans 10 points against the Broncos.
The key here is that I think Utah State?s defense is capable of keeping the Aztecs offense in check. San Diego State has one of the best rushing attacks in the country. They come in 14th in the nation at 252.7 ypg. However, they also have one of the worst passing games in the country, ranking 114th at just 165.6 ypg.
Utah State?s defense has been solid against the run this season. While they are giving up 152 ypg, they are allowing just 3.6 yards/carry. They are also holding opposing teams to just 5.0 yards/play. Playing at home will definitely help the intensity of the defense. It?s also a lot easier to stop a team who is one dimensional.
Possessions should be limited for both sides, which is a key factor when looking to bet the UNDER. The Aztecs also aren?t a team who looks to poor it on late. In their 42-3 win over San Jose State, they didn?t score once in the 4th quarter.
Under is 15-5 in San Diego State?s last 20 conference games. It?s also 12-2 in their last 14 against a team with a losing record and 6-0 in their last 6 against teams who force 1 or fewer turnovers/game.
Indians vs. Cubs
Play: Under 8
The World Series is tied up 1-1 heading into Friday's Game #3, but the best wagering opportunity isn't on who's going to win and take the series lead, but on the UNDER 8 Runs. We play the 3rd game of this series, but this pitching match-up is strong enough to be most teams in MLB's ace vs ace. Chicago starts Hendricks, who's gone "Under" in 12 of 15 games (3-12 Over/Under) this year when facing a team owning a winning record. In his 3 postseason starts, Hendricks has allowed 0, 1 and 2 Earned Runs. He squares off against Cleveland's Tomlin, who's coming off back-to-back Playoff victories in which he allowed 1 and 2 Earned Runs. Toss in the Tribe's bull pen of Miller and Allen and don't expect much scoring from either team on a very cold night in Chicago. With the temperature listed at 60 degrees, there' won't be much "jump" on the ball.
Cubs -1? +112
Chicago's 8-4 in the playoffs and their 4 losses have come against Bumgarner, Kershaw, Hill and Kluber, four of the best starters in the game this season. Six of their 8 wins have come by 2 runs or more and with Tomlin on the mound for Cleveland in this one and Hendricks going for Chicago, I think the Cubs on the run line is the best play here. The wind will be blowing out tonight and that only gives Chicago a bigger edge here. Tomlin's big weakness is he gives up too many homers and Hendricks is one of the best in the game at keeping the ball in the park. Playing at home with this crowd is another huge edge for Chicago. Note they are outscoring opponents at home in the playoffs 19-7.
Raptors +3
We won with the Cavs in their opener against the Knicks on Tuesday but I won't hesitate to switch gears and go against the defending champs as they head to Toronto on Friday night.
Keep in mind, we also cashed a ticket with the Raptors in their blowout win over the Pistons two nights ago.
It certainly appears that the Cavs and Raps are on a collision course once again in the Eastern Conference this season. I look for Toronto to make an early statement on Friday night - this one means a little more to the Raps in my opinion and motivation is certainly always a big factor in the NBA, not to mention home court.
The Cavs depth will be tested in this one. The Raps never relented against the Pistons in their home opener and while the same could be said for the Cavs, they were up against a more disjointed opponent in the Knicks, who are working in a lot of new faces.
Toronto certainly held its own against Cleveland last season and I expect nothing different in 2016-17. The case could be made that the wrong team is favored here so I'll grab all the points I can get.
HOU @ DAL -1.5
Man, this Houston defense is going to be horrendous this year. Allowing 120 to the Lakers is pretty much indicative of that. Of course it doesn?t help that their best defender, Patrick Beverley, is out for the next 4-6 weeks with a knee injury. Of course, Dallas might not be any better, as they allowed 130 (115 in regulation) to the Pacers. Keep in mind that these two teams play each other again on Sunday, this time in Houston. Based on what happens tonight, could be an opportunity to fade the winner, as the losing team could/should make adjustments. For this one, I?d give the home team a slight edge. Lean: DAL -1.5
Houston Rockets +1
The Houston Rockets lost their opener to the Los Angeles Lakers 114-120. However, they dominated in the preseason, and they should take down the Dallas Mavericks tonight. The Rockets' downfall was shooting just 24.1% from 3-point range against the Lakers, and they should do much better here with all of the talent they have on the perimeter. The Mavs have one of the worst rosters in the Western Conference. Most of their players are past their primes, and Harrison Barnes was a terrible get in the offseason for how much they paid for him. I look for the Rockets to run the Mavs out of the gym tonight. The Rockets are 90-57 ATS in their last 147 road games off an upset loss as a favorite.
LAL @ UTA -8.5
Gordon Hayward is out until mid/late November as is Alec Burks. Derrick Favors practiced fully though on Thursday and will see how he feels during the shoot-around to determine his playing status. Hayward was Utah?s leading scorer last year while Favors was 2nd, so it?d be big to get him back on the court at least. Even still I doubt he plays his full allotment of minutes. As far as the Lakers are concerned, it?s a little hard to take a team seriously when they?re starting Nick Young. Expect a lot of volatility with this squad this year. Overall, Utah is a superior team and I think if Favors plays, you have to like their chances in this one. Lean: UTA -8.5
Friday NBA?
I don?t believe the markets are in the right place for the game flows that I will expect from both the Suns and Thunder this season, so with 210 starting to become available it will be #708 Oklahoma City/Phoenix Under (8:05 Eastern), this one good at 209 or better.
Phoenix will need to scrap on defense to be successful because offensive continuity will be a work in progress long into the season, if indeed this chemistry ever does work. The defense has a chance, however, with Tyson Chandler protecting the rim and decent athleticism on the perimeter, and Earl Watson putting them through a boot-camp type of practice after the dismal opening loss to the Kings should bring the proper intensity level tonight.
Meanwhile I went into detail about the OKC defense and tempo adjustments here on Wednesday, and as long as Andre Roberson and Domantas Sabonis are the starting forwards the Thunder are built to be much more of a grinder than in the past (though I was surprised to see Sabonis take three shots beyond the arc, not believing he had the range for beyond the NBA line). But also note the end-game rotation that we may see often from Billy Donovan, Steven Adams/Enes Kanter playing together through much of the fourth quarter at Philadelphia. That also helps to slow things down, and the fact that they will be battling Chandler tonight means not much of anything around the basket coming easily for either team.
GSW @ NOP +10
I?m wondering if all games following Warriors losses, should be auto-bet on the Dubs. A team as dominant as they should be, is expected to bounce back after defeats, especially this early in the season. Without Holiday, Evans, and Pondexter (excellent 3PT shooter), this team is serious devoid of talent. Yes, AD is awesome, but he can?t do it alone. If Warriors game-plan to slow him down, there just isn?t enough talent to pick up the slack. Lean: GSW -10
Charlotte vs. Miami
Pick: Charlotte
The Charlotte Hornets had a 3-2 lead over the Miami Heat in last year?s opening round but failed to win Game 6 at home. Then, back in Miami for Game 7, got crushed by a score of 106-73. The Hornets will get to play an early-season grudge match tonight, when they travel to Miami to take on the Heat. It should be noted that Luol Deng, Gerald Green, Joe Johnson and Dwyane Wade combined for 52 points in the Heat's Game 7 win last season but all have departed in the offseason as the franchise has decided to rebuild around center Hassan Whiteside and PG Goran Dragic.
Whiteside signed a four-year, $98.4 million contract over the summer and scored 18 points with 14 rebounds and four blocks in 31 minutes in Wednesday?s 108-96 win in the season opener at Orlando. Dragic, who scored 25 points in the Game 7 win last spring, put up 16 points in the opener. Justice Winslow, the second-year small forward from Duke, moved into starting lineup to put up 15 points plus had eight rebounds. It?s expected that Dion Waiters (nine points) and the 24-year-old Tyler Johnson (15 points) are in line for bigger roles in the backcourt this season.
Charlotte added veteran center Roy Hibbert over the summer, who is trying to resurrect his career back in the Eastern Conference. The 29-year-old delivered 15 points, nine rebounds and five blocks in his team debut and impressed his new teammates. "He?s such a security blanket back there," forward Marvin Williams told the Charlotte Observer of Hibbert. "You know if you get beaten, there?s always someone back there to cover for you. It makes you more confident to take chances." Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is fully healthy and ready to take some of the scoring load off Kemba Walker's shoulders and the former overall No. 2 pick scored a team-high 23 points on 10-of-18 shooting to go with 14 rebounds in the Hornets' 107-96 win at Milwaukee to open the season on Wednesday (Walker had 17 points).
I like the ?playoff revenge angle? early in the season and will take the points with the Hornets.
Saturday:
Purdue +11.5
First off Penn St might be hung over like Johnny Manziel after New Year's.....PSU beating Ohio St in dramatic fashion was sweet....Now the Lions make the top 25....It's a trend that is very well known...Teams that crack the top 25 after a big key win struggle the next week...Expectations + letdown hangover....Not to mention Purdue now comes home after back to back losses....Purdue actually played very well last week in Nebraska....Cornhuskers trailed for a large part of that game and the Purdue defense actually played very well....Penn St now has to travel which won't help them on top of it...Purdue now has a chance to play a top 25 team two weeks in a row...Upset is possible, but the Boilermakers at home might be the way to go here....Purdue has faced, Iowa, Cinn & Nebraska...some pretty good tests along the way...PSU has had some very tough defensive games.i worry they are flat as a pancake in this one.
Purdue (+12) over Penn State
Purdue would love to wrap up October with a big win. They have played well the last couple weeks. They easily covered at Nebraska last week and only lost to Iowa by 14 points the week before. Now the Boilermakers are at home against a Penn State team that is due for a big letdown. The Nittany Lions are coming off one of the biggest upsets of the season so far, beating Ohio State thanks to a blocked kick TD. That game was at home in primetime last week. Now they have to go on the road to play a noon game in Indiana against a weak Purdue team that has just one league win. Penn State has won seven straight in this series. I don't think that they are going to take Purdue seriously. This should be a sloppy game and a low-scoring one. And I think that works to Purdue's advantage. Penn State has only played two road games this year. They lost both. The Nittany Lions are off three straight home games and I think that they will struggle in their first road trip in over one month and Penn State is 3-14 ATS in its last 17 road games. The Boilermakers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games after a loss. Take the points and look for a sloppy game.
Purdue +14
Purdue has been more competitive under interim coach Gerad Parker and catches Penn State in a monster letdown spot.
The Nittany Lions are on the road after just upsetting previously undefeated Ohio State at home last Saturday. It's a double whammy for Penn State, which is 3-12 ATS after covering a game and 3-14-2 ATS in its last 19 away contests.
Penn State hasn't traveled in four weeks. This is only its third road game of the season. The Nittany Lions are 0-2 on the road giving up an average of 45 1/2 points to Pittsburgh and Michigan. Penn State is 0-7-1 ATS the past eight times it has been a road favorite and has lost straight-up seven straight times away from home under James Franklin.
Parker's first game as interim head coach was last week. Purdue was a 24-point road 'dog to then ninth-ranked and now seventh-ranked Nebraska. The Boilermakers played hard, led 14-10 at halftime and gave the Cornhuskers a scare before losing, 27-14. The Boilermakers have covered seven of the last eight times following a loss.
Purdue has some decent skill position talent that can take advantage of Penn State giving up an average of 4.7 yards per rush and 203 yards rushing a game. The Boilermakers have been weak defensively, but received a boost from 345-pound tackle Lorenzo Neal, who recorded three tackles behind the line of scrimmage versus the Cornhuskers. Parker should have Purdue playing hard again this week with the team still alive for a bowl berth.
Arizona St / Oregon Over 78.5
Two teams that have been trending to the over will meet when the Arizona St Sun Devils hit the road to take on the Oregon Ducks at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, OR on Saturday night. Arizona St. has posted a 6-2 record to the over in their last eight games following a game where the allowed less than 100 yards on the ground and they have gone an excellent 8-2 to the over in their last 10 games following an ATS win. Oregon has been an over team as well in the spot they are in here on Saturday as they have posted a 5-1 record in their last six games where they faced a team with a winning record and they have gone a perfect 7-0 to the over in their last seven Pac-12 games. They have also gone 23-6-2 to the over in their last 31 games following a straight up loss and they are an insane 44-17-1 to the over in their last 62 home games. Throw in the fact that these two teams have gone 5-1 to the over in their last six head-to-head meetings, including a 61-55 win by the Ducks last season in Tempe, and that's where we'll have our play as we expect this one to turn into an old fashioned Pac-12 shootout in Eugene on Saturday night.
Cincinnati at Temple
Play: Temple -7
The Owls have been playing some excellent football of late and they are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games. In their last game they beat South Florida 46-30 as they held the number 8th ranked offense to 354 yards well under their average of 487. All year it has been defense for Temple and they are ranked 17th in yards allowed per game. Temple has won the stat battle in their last 5 games so it is obvious that their offense is looking way better than it did at the beginning of the year. As for Cincinnati, the Bearcats got themselves a much needed victory last week against East Carolina. They need to come up with 2 more wins to become bowl eligible, but unfortunately they will have to wait till next week as the Owls just seem to be too strong and on a roll. Temple has the stronger offense 49th to 74th and the better defense 38th to 76th. The oddsmaker has this line set at 7 at the time of this writing and we will be happy to LAY IT.
CINCINNATI AT TEMPLE
PLAY: TEMPLE -7
Now that -7 is widely available on this game, I think it?s time to step in with a play on Temple.
Cincinnati managed to get a win last week against East Carolina, but it was really mistakes by the Pirates that got the Bearcats into the victory column.
I was very impressed with Temple in its win over South Florida. Certainly they were helped by the fact USF cannot stop the run, but the fact is the Owls dominated that game and were pretty easy winners. Aside from the opening game disaster vs. Army, this is proving to be a very solid Temple entry. The Owls lost the stats against the Cadets and also by a bit in the loss at Penn State. But Temple has won that comparison in all their other games.
The Bearcats have gone back to Gunner Kiel at QB, and I thought he was okay last week against East Carolina, but he?ll face a better defense here. Cincinnati has a very good ballhawking secondary, and Phillip Walker is a QB who van get inaccurate at times, so there is some worry on that count.
But as I played Temple last week and got the win, I like the idea of coming right back with them here, and the Owls are a team with positive momentum presently. Now that I?m not having to spot more than a TD, Temple minus the points moves into the play on column.
Boston College at NC State
Play: NC State -16
Boston College is likely thankful that this Saturday?s opponent neither has a dual threat quarterback nor do they run an up-tempo system. Last week the Eagles saw their third opponent this season with those traits and their defense was again hammered as Syracuse gained 532 total yards. Combined, Eric Dungey and Syracuse, Deshaun Watson and Clemson and Jerod Evans and Virginia Tech have gained a total of 1,511 yards and scored 133 points. Ryan Finley and the NC State Wolfpack don?t have the threat of the zone read option and they don?t go as fast as the previously mentioned teams which philosophically suits the Boston College defensive assets better. Relying upon their ground game led by Matt Dayes and the passing of Finley, NC State is averaging 5.6 yards per play which is equal to Clemson and a shade better than Syracuse?s 5.5.
The Wolpack defense takes a monumental step down in class here after facing the explosive Clemson and Louisville offenses the past two weeks. Boston College continued their miserable offensive ways last week gaining only 287 yards against a porous Syracuse defense and in the process, starting quarterback Patrick Towles injured his hamstring late in the game. It?s unclear whether Towles will be able to go this week or not (listed as questionable) but his combined 175 yards per game (134.6 ypg passing, 40.4 ypg rushing), 48.6% completions and 7-4 TD-INT ratio haven?t been difference makers anyway. The hope that new OC/QB coach Scott Loeffler could resurrect Towles college career and this offense?s production has become a major disappointment as they?ve averaged just 253.5 ypg in their four ACC contests.
Aside from the fundamentals which totally favor NC State on each side of the ball, there?s the fact that they need two more wins to become bowl eligible and they?re only going to be favored once more this season. 6-6 and a minor bowl is not what they set out for in 2016 but if they don?t get there, Dave Doeren could be an offseason casualty. Steve Addazio is more likely to end up in that spot unless his team comes up with an exceptionally strong finish. The Eagles have covered only two games all season and those were against Buffalo and UMass. They?ve only been in this double-digit home underdog role once and Clemson destroyed them 56-10. State is a physical team which figures to win in the trenches and coast to a much needed victory somewhere in the 33-13 range.
UL-Monroe vs. Arkansas State
Play: Arkansas State -20
Arkansas State is a team that is being overlooked somewhat because of their 0-4 start. The Red Wolves have since won two straight games and are playing with a week of rest and looked like a completely different football team two weeks when they held South Alabama to 7 points in a 17-7 win. This bye week now marks their second of the season as they had a week off before playing Georgia Southern in a weekday game. I feel this is a very advantageous part of their schedule, playing their 4th consecutive home game and a spot they can dominate against a struggling UL-Monroe team. The Red Wolves last went on the road September 16th at Utah State and have been camping at home ever since
Arkansas State is now 2-0 in the Sun Belt and looking to reclaim the championship after winning the Sun Belt title last year. The Red Wolves are 6-0 ATS the last 6 meetings against UL-Monroe. Arkansas State has won 80% of their games and covered 70% of the time from Game 6 and out over the last 5 years. They have now won 11 consecutive conference games after the win against South Alabama with ALL 11 wins coming by 10 points or more with an average score of 43-23. Arkansas State has finally got settled with a quarterback as that was their problem the first few games. Justice Hansen is an Oklahoma transfer who has a big arm. He has thrown 6 interceptions which is the one negative but I think he is the most talented QB in the Sun Belt and has turned the corner. The UL-Monroe secondary in not a threat and Hansen should have a field day behind one of the most experienced offensive lines in the country.
Monroe?s starting quarterback Garrett Smith is out with an injury. That leaves the job up to two freshmen quarterbacks and I can?t see either one doing much damage against a defense led by a bulk of juniors and seniors of Arkansas State. Chris Odom and Ja?von Rolland-Jones have combined for 8.5 sacks, 10.5 tackles for loss, and 5 QB hurries. Look for them to take advantage of a shaky UL-Monroe offensive line and force the young Monroe quarterback(s) out of the pocket which will lead to some bad throws and mistakes. All of this should lead into a few turnovers that the Red Wolves should capitalize on.
The UL-Monroe defense is giving up 297 rushing yards a game and 6.2 yards per rush as this is a defense that only returned 3 starters from last year and lost their entire front 7 from 2015. They only have 3 interceptions on the year They have not covered their last 4 games and are in a tough spot here playing their 5th road game of their last 7 games. It?s been a tough go for 1st year coach Matt Viator and his coordinators who all came from FCS schools.
Arkansas State has put up an average of 512 yards of offense the last 4 meetings, with an average final score of 43-18.
In the Sights, NFL?
Time to get an advance ticket for Sunday into play as well, and with the key precincts of Pinnacle and CRIS both having the Patriots at -5 available this morning it means #259 New England (1:00 Eastern) in play.
I don?t need to get redundant about the upside I see from the Patriots offense, that Brady/Gronkowski/Bennett triangle such a tactical headache for opponents to solve, yet in what is a bit of a market anomaly, what should be an over-priced team isn?t at this stage. To show some of that dilemma for opposing defenses, when Brady saw the way the Steelers were trying to adjust he found that it made things easy to just pound away with LeGarrette Blount, who ran for 127 yards and two TDs at 5.3 per attempt
Let?s attribute some of this line value to recent Buffalo results that don?t paint a proper portrait of the Bills ? in getting back-to-back wins over Los Angeles and San Francisco there were seemingly box scores of beauty, but the reality is that they caught the Rams without three starters in the DL, and the 49ers in their first full game with NaVorro Bowman, which tempers those numbers (for a meaningful comparison, look at what Tampa Bay just did to that San Fran defense, despite being without Doug Martin and Vince Jackson). And to further Buffalo being over-rated from the recent trilogy of games note that the 28-25 loss at Miami was a false scoreboard portrait ? the Dolphins controlled that one to the tune of 454-267 yards in total offense, at 6.7 vs. 4.9 per play.
New England does not have to do anything special to win by six or seven here, which shows the value of the price point, but anticipate a prime focus from the Patriots ? there is no love lost between Bill Belichick and Rex Ryan, and with that ugly home shutout loss to Buffalo generating some added spark, there is no hesitation backing Belichick?s 18-3 ATS run in division revenge games, that pattern simple not factored into this current price point.
