07:05 PM NHL [1] Montreal Canadiens -105
07:35 PM NHL [3] Winnipeg Jets +160
10:05 PM NHL [6] TOTAL u5.5 -135 (Arizona Coyotes vrs Anaheim Ducks)
07:00 PM CFB [319] Temple -10-105
07:05 PM NBA [502] TOTAL u205-110 (Atlanta Hawks vrs Washington Wizards)
08:05 PM NBA [508] Chicago Bulls -5.5 -145 (B+2)
08:05 PM NBA [512] Memphis Grizzlies +7.5 -150 (B+2)
1 unit bet pays 91 ....betdsi line
a couple Anaheim players promised much better defense tonight...
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Winnipeg +155
Detroit just isn't good enough anymore to be laying this high of a price. The Red Wings are in the midst of a three-game losing streak after having won six in a row.
Toronto's Austin Matthews is getting all the early publicity for rookie of the year honors. But Winnipeg rookie Patrik Laine has six goals, too, the same number as Matthews. I think he's just as good.
Winnipeg has solid offensive talent. The Jets are 4-6-1, but three of the defeats were by one goal to playoff teams.
The Red Wings are going again with Petr Mrazek in goal. I think that's a mistake as I regard Jimmy Howard as their best goalie.
MEMPHIS +5? over L.A. Clippers
The Clippers have enjoyed the luxury of playing some of the Western Conference?s weakest teams in the Staples Center to start off the 2016-17 season. Hosting Utah, Phoenix and a Kevin Durant-less Oklahoma City gave Los Angeles a chance to certainly savor an appetizing early schedule but the Clips fell at home against Oklahoma City when they were held to just 83 points behind a Thunder squad that has been forced to change up their game plan in the post-KD era. Previously, L.A. was off to a 3-0 start initiated by vindication on the road at Rip City to kick off their 2016 season. The Clippers are fully stacked and primed with their offensive weapons at full health. However, Lob City can dish out as many alley-oops as they like, a la Chris Paul to Blake Griffin, if their offense of course can get going. Thing is, The Clips are not a defensive-minded team by any stretch and when they are forced to play a defensive game, we often see results fostered like we did on Tuesday against OKC where the Clip Joint gets clipped.
After making a run to the Western Conference Semifinals in the 2014-15 season, the Grizzlies have suffered some attrition as they failed to make it out of the first round of the playoffs in the 2015-16 season as a #7 seed. However, Justin Timberlake must be happy with how things are shaping up with Memphis in the early going so far this year. The Grizzlies remain undefeated at the FedEx Forum while boasting their trademark stingy defensive numbers that we are all used to seeing with these Music City Marauders. Though they stand at 3-2, the Grizzlies have been perfect at home even if two of those three wins went to OT. Memphis wears teams down, as they have an absolute ?glove? in Tony Allen who has established a reputation as one of the premier defenders in all the NBA. Complementing Allen is Mike ?The Pitbull? Conley, an undersized point-guard that plays the game with a chip on his shoulder. Then there?s Mark Gasol, regarded by many as a top-five big-man across the league. Toss in Zach Randolph off the bench as another economical defender and suddenly the Clips have their hands full with a raucous crowd feeding the Grizzlies energy to combat any foe. Not only can Memphis cover here but they can pull the upset outright, as home court advantage and sound defense is a great recipe for winning when taking back points.
Dallas +2
The 76ers, Pelicans, Wizards and Mavericks all share one thing in common so far this season - they are all winless. Certainly no surprise with the 76ers. The Pelicans are a lottery team, too. It's the Wizards and Mavericks who are the biggest disappointments through the first nine days of the season.
Dallas is the topic here. The Mavericks are 0-4. To avoid their first 0-5 start in franchise history, they must defeat Portland at home tonight. I see that happening and am going to get involved now that early money has pushed Portland into the favorite's role.
The Trail Blazers finished strong last season. But they haven't been consistent this season losing three of their first five games. Now two of their defeats came to the Clippers and Warriors - no shame in that - but their other defeat occurred to the previously winless Suns. They also had to go overtime to beat Denver, or they would be sitting at 1-4.
Dirk Nowitzki is back after missing two games. He was rusty in his return shooting just 4-of-14 from the field in Dallas' last game, a poorly played blowout road loss to the Jazz two nights ago. The Mavericks have a lot of veteran pride. Harrison Barnes and Deron Williams have been playing well. Dallas has one of the better coaches in Rick Carlisle. There is a tremendous sense of urgency for Dallas here.
Portland has failed to cover during its last four visits to Dallas. The Trail Blazers also are 1-7 ATS the past eight times going against opponents with a losing record.
I see the Mavericks getting the job done here - finally.
Hawks/Wizards Under 208?
I really like the value here with the total in tonight's game against the Hawks, as I look for both teams to bring the defensive intensity. Washington is still searching for their first win and poor defense has been a big reason for the slow start. Playing at home with the first win of the season on the line, I expect them to lay it all on the line here. As for the Hawks, they come in off a ugly 116-123 loss at home to the Lakers, where they allowed 74 points in the 2nd half. This came after holding each of their first 3 opponents under 100 points. Defense will certainly be a point of emphasis after that performance.
Another key here is that this will be the second time these two teams have faced each other, as these two opened their season against each other in Atlanta. Both are going to be very familiar with what the other is trying to do defensively, which should also lead to a lower-scoring game.
UNDER is 8-2 in the Hawks last 10 after failing to cover the spread in their last game and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 after allowing 100+ points.
Atlanta at Washington
Pick: Atlanta
Atlanta won its first three games and then had an uncharacteristic defensive lapse in a 123-116 loss to the Lakers on Wednesday. The Hawks still are ranked seventh in the league in scoring defense at 97.2 points per game while Washington is 28th allowing 113.0 points per contest. Dwight Howard appears to have made the right decision by joining the Hawks as he poured in 31 points with 11 rebounds against the Lakers. The Hawks won the first meeting 114-99 on Oct. 27 when Howard grabbed 19 boards and the team shot 50.0 percent. The Wizards are 0-3 both straight up and ATS as coach Scott Brooks struggles to find some chemistry with his new team, which not only is playing little or no defense, but committed 20 turnovers in its 113-103 loss to Toronto. John Wall is doing his part as he scored 33 points with 11 assists on Wednesday, but the Wizards wasted a night when they shot 58.3 percent only to let the Raptors shoot 55.8 percent. The Wizards won't shoot that high a percentage in this matchup as Atlanta bounces back with a good defensive effort.
Spurs at Jazz
Pick: Under
These are two of the top defensive teams in the NBA. San Antonio coach Gregg Popovich was dismayed with the poor effort against Utah the last time out, a loss at home. The Spurs are 23-11 under the total against the Western Conference. San Antonio PG Tony Parker (knee) will sit out the contest. Utah is on a 15-7 run under the total. Utah lost 10 straight games in San Antonio before offseason acquisition George Hill scored 22 points to lead the Jazz to a 106-91 victory over the Spurs on Tuesday. Hill had another big game for the Jazz on Wednesday, when he scored 25 points in a 97-81 home victory over the Dallas Mavericks. And the Under is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings in Utah.
CENTRAL MICHIGAN AT MIAMI OHIO
PLAY: MIAMI OHIO +3.5
It looks to me like we have a pair of teams heading in opposite directions matching up tonight in the MAC. Central Michigan?s fast 3-0 start that included the highly controversial upset of Oklahoma State is becoming a distant memory. Miami Ohio has suddenly caught fire with three straight conference victories.
Miami was showing signs of breaking through in some early losses. They narrowly missed upsetting Western Kentucky and Cincinnati and might have knocked off Ohio if not for some critical turnovers. The breakthrough finally took place in an 18-14 comeback win against Kent State. The Redhawks have subsequently defeated both Bowling Green and Eastern Michigan.
CMU looked like a serious MAC contender early. The performance at Oklahoma State was impressive regardless of how the game ended, and the Chippewas were flying high when they traveled to Virginia. But the defense got exposed in that game and this team simply has not been the same since that loss.
Central Michigan certainly has plenty of reason to keep playing hard as they are certainly capable of getting to a bowl game, with five wins already tucked away. But if you watched them last week in a home game against Kent State, there is no way to be high on this team presently. The Chips seemed to have taken over that game with a 24-10 lead that included a 22-0 run. But they were unable to contain the Golden Flashes and ended up losing on a field goal at the final gun.
On paper, CMU is the more talented football team. But they are clearly not playing at anywhere near the level they displayed in September and one has to wonder about the hangover effect following a very bad loss last week.
Meanwhile, while there?s not a great deal of talent on hand, especially on offense, the Redhawks have wind in their sails. Shocking as it sounds, Miami could starting thinking about bowl eligibility with a win tonight. They?re at just three wins right now. But with Buffalo and Ball State to complete the regular season, there?s actually a chance the Redhawks could get to six wins if they come through tonight.
I would anticipate a close game. Central Michigan is clearly struggling, but they still own the talent edge. However, I?m more inclined to side with momentum in this clash, so I?ll side with Miami plus the points.
In the Sights, Friday NBA?
Let?s go back to Chicago and put something in the portfolio for Friday night. I do believe the Knicks will bring a lot of energy to this setting, trying to win it for Rose and Noah, and needless to say Rose will be a catalyst. That extra energy is much more likely to show on offense than defense, largely because the latter aspect is a long way from being ready, and with the Bulls relishing the opportunity to get out and run it will be #508 Chicago Team Total Over (8:05 Eastern) with 107.5 available in the morning trading, and value up to 108.
Let me introduce a phrase that will be used here often to help set perspective on the New York defense ? PVM, for ?Points vs. Market?. This is a way of showing how close the markets are to evaluating an offense or a defense, and while individual Team Totals are not tracked in many data-bases you can calculate this by using the closing Side/Total on each game as the market projection. So here is the New York defense so far this season:
Market Scoreboard
@CLE 107.5 117
MEM 98 104
@DET 103 102
HOU 108.5 118
NET -24
The Knicks are allowing 6.0 ppg more than the markets have anticipated, and it is actually even worse than that ? because their three losses have been one-sided, they only allowed 69 points across those three fourth quarter?s.
Chicago is well-set to take advantage of a bad defense, the Bulls being able to score from so many directions. They rate #3 in offensive efficiency so far and attribute some integrity to that, with a #1 in assists per game, and 72.9 percent of all made baskets coming from a teammates pass. Jimmy Butler and Dwyane Wade are showing that they can compliment each other; Rajon Rondo has some finishers that enable him to dish without having to score; and the dynamic of having Nikola Mirotic (14.0 ppg) and Doug McDermott (13.3) coming off the bench allows Hoiberg to mix and match his combinations based on weaknesses of the opposition. The Knicks bring plenty of them (Carmelo Anthony will have to chase either Mirotic or McDermott out beyond the ac).
Look for a lot of early energy here to set the tone, both Rose and Rondo pumped up for this setting and each of them being lousy defenders making it easier for the other side. And for our purposes it helps that the Knicks are off tomorrow, which means they may chase harder from behind than usual, which can create additional scoring opportunities.
Item: Derrick and Joakim come back to the Windy City
As noted often here, the NBA regular season is a long circus tour of various ebbs and flows, which puts a premium on gauging the focus level for particular games, not only in terms of predicting them, but also in the post mortem grading. One of the more fascinating episodes will take place tonight, when Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah play in Chicago, wearing the uniforms of the visiting team for the first time in their long NBA careers.
This one is so unusual in that these really have been long careers, Noah nine seasons with the Bulls, and Rose eight years and seven seasons, with both expecting to finish their career in Chicago until the Fred Hoiberg administration began to change things. And for Rose it really is a homecoming, to the city of his birth.
The awareness of the setting is there. From Rose - "That would be a dream (to get a unanimous ovation), but I know I'm going to get some boos here and there. It's all a part of the game, all a part of the sport. It's not going to affect the way that I play and how bad I want to win that game." And from Noah - ?I?m trying to stay focused on the moment. I know it?s going to be emotional.?
So let?s set some perspective and figure out if there is an opportunity created.
Item: A team will often step up to play harder when a game means something special for their teammates (but?)
One of the issues driving teams for settings like this is for the others to appreciate what it means to competitors like Rose and Noah, and to play even harder for their teammates. But is this necessarily the case for the Knicks, and might it possibly backfire?
New York enters the game with an awkward chemistry as the new pieces try to fit, which has resulted in some truly bad basketball - in going 1-3 SU and ATS the Knicks have come up 42.5 points short of the market expectations. It isn?t just execution but also effort ? they are #26 in defensive efficiency and #28 in rebounding.
As such, Jeff Hornacek is already aware of the potential trap tonight brings, and how it could backfire - ?You?ve got to be careful not trying to do too much. We?ve just got to play within ourselves and not try to do things that we?re not capable of doing. Maybe right now we all think we can score, but we need to figure out who should be the guys that are scoring.?
And Rose and Noah come front and center with an awareness of the overall team picture. First Rose - ?It sucks (being 1-3). I?ve been on teams where there?s a culture, and we?re trying to build a defensive culture here, and it takes time.? And Noah - ?It?s us coming in with the right intensity and having the will to fight. Obviously we have a lot work to do. It?s not the end of the world. There?s a lot of talent on the team. We got to stay patient.??
Is there something that we can do tonight? I believe so, and will get to it in a moment, but now for something that does need to become part of your NBA handicapping consciousness for this season -
Item: Past Knicks and Bulls trends have no meaning
I don?t want to be redundant because this is a point that gets made often, but because there is such a unique example, let?s spell it out. Both Chicago and New York have undergone major roster turnovers over the past two seasons, and also coaching changes, in the case of the Knicks multiple changes. So what is the worth of previous season?s data concerning these teams? Zero. Both should be treated as though they have started from scratch for 2016-17.
That is not an easy thing for some folks to do because using past patterns can be an integral part of the handicapping process. In this instance those patterns just don?t matter.
07:35 PM NHL [3] Winnipeg Jets +160
10:05 PM NHL [6] TOTAL u5.5 -135 (Arizona Coyotes vrs Anaheim Ducks)
07:00 PM CFB [319] Temple -10-105
07:05 PM NBA [502] TOTAL u205-110 (Atlanta Hawks vrs Washington Wizards)
08:05 PM NBA [508] Chicago Bulls -5.5 -145 (B+2)
08:05 PM NBA [512] Memphis Grizzlies +7.5 -150 (B+2)
1 unit bet pays 91 ....betdsi line
a couple Anaheim players promised much better defense tonight...
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Winnipeg +155
Detroit just isn't good enough anymore to be laying this high of a price. The Red Wings are in the midst of a three-game losing streak after having won six in a row.
Toronto's Austin Matthews is getting all the early publicity for rookie of the year honors. But Winnipeg rookie Patrik Laine has six goals, too, the same number as Matthews. I think he's just as good.
Winnipeg has solid offensive talent. The Jets are 4-6-1, but three of the defeats were by one goal to playoff teams.
The Red Wings are going again with Petr Mrazek in goal. I think that's a mistake as I regard Jimmy Howard as their best goalie.
MEMPHIS +5? over L.A. Clippers
The Clippers have enjoyed the luxury of playing some of the Western Conference?s weakest teams in the Staples Center to start off the 2016-17 season. Hosting Utah, Phoenix and a Kevin Durant-less Oklahoma City gave Los Angeles a chance to certainly savor an appetizing early schedule but the Clips fell at home against Oklahoma City when they were held to just 83 points behind a Thunder squad that has been forced to change up their game plan in the post-KD era. Previously, L.A. was off to a 3-0 start initiated by vindication on the road at Rip City to kick off their 2016 season. The Clippers are fully stacked and primed with their offensive weapons at full health. However, Lob City can dish out as many alley-oops as they like, a la Chris Paul to Blake Griffin, if their offense of course can get going. Thing is, The Clips are not a defensive-minded team by any stretch and when they are forced to play a defensive game, we often see results fostered like we did on Tuesday against OKC where the Clip Joint gets clipped.
After making a run to the Western Conference Semifinals in the 2014-15 season, the Grizzlies have suffered some attrition as they failed to make it out of the first round of the playoffs in the 2015-16 season as a #7 seed. However, Justin Timberlake must be happy with how things are shaping up with Memphis in the early going so far this year. The Grizzlies remain undefeated at the FedEx Forum while boasting their trademark stingy defensive numbers that we are all used to seeing with these Music City Marauders. Though they stand at 3-2, the Grizzlies have been perfect at home even if two of those three wins went to OT. Memphis wears teams down, as they have an absolute ?glove? in Tony Allen who has established a reputation as one of the premier defenders in all the NBA. Complementing Allen is Mike ?The Pitbull? Conley, an undersized point-guard that plays the game with a chip on his shoulder. Then there?s Mark Gasol, regarded by many as a top-five big-man across the league. Toss in Zach Randolph off the bench as another economical defender and suddenly the Clips have their hands full with a raucous crowd feeding the Grizzlies energy to combat any foe. Not only can Memphis cover here but they can pull the upset outright, as home court advantage and sound defense is a great recipe for winning when taking back points.
Dallas +2
The 76ers, Pelicans, Wizards and Mavericks all share one thing in common so far this season - they are all winless. Certainly no surprise with the 76ers. The Pelicans are a lottery team, too. It's the Wizards and Mavericks who are the biggest disappointments through the first nine days of the season.
Dallas is the topic here. The Mavericks are 0-4. To avoid their first 0-5 start in franchise history, they must defeat Portland at home tonight. I see that happening and am going to get involved now that early money has pushed Portland into the favorite's role.
The Trail Blazers finished strong last season. But they haven't been consistent this season losing three of their first five games. Now two of their defeats came to the Clippers and Warriors - no shame in that - but their other defeat occurred to the previously winless Suns. They also had to go overtime to beat Denver, or they would be sitting at 1-4.
Dirk Nowitzki is back after missing two games. He was rusty in his return shooting just 4-of-14 from the field in Dallas' last game, a poorly played blowout road loss to the Jazz two nights ago. The Mavericks have a lot of veteran pride. Harrison Barnes and Deron Williams have been playing well. Dallas has one of the better coaches in Rick Carlisle. There is a tremendous sense of urgency for Dallas here.
Portland has failed to cover during its last four visits to Dallas. The Trail Blazers also are 1-7 ATS the past eight times going against opponents with a losing record.
I see the Mavericks getting the job done here - finally.
Hawks/Wizards Under 208?
I really like the value here with the total in tonight's game against the Hawks, as I look for both teams to bring the defensive intensity. Washington is still searching for their first win and poor defense has been a big reason for the slow start. Playing at home with the first win of the season on the line, I expect them to lay it all on the line here. As for the Hawks, they come in off a ugly 116-123 loss at home to the Lakers, where they allowed 74 points in the 2nd half. This came after holding each of their first 3 opponents under 100 points. Defense will certainly be a point of emphasis after that performance.
Another key here is that this will be the second time these two teams have faced each other, as these two opened their season against each other in Atlanta. Both are going to be very familiar with what the other is trying to do defensively, which should also lead to a lower-scoring game.
UNDER is 8-2 in the Hawks last 10 after failing to cover the spread in their last game and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 after allowing 100+ points.
Atlanta at Washington
Pick: Atlanta
Atlanta won its first three games and then had an uncharacteristic defensive lapse in a 123-116 loss to the Lakers on Wednesday. The Hawks still are ranked seventh in the league in scoring defense at 97.2 points per game while Washington is 28th allowing 113.0 points per contest. Dwight Howard appears to have made the right decision by joining the Hawks as he poured in 31 points with 11 rebounds against the Lakers. The Hawks won the first meeting 114-99 on Oct. 27 when Howard grabbed 19 boards and the team shot 50.0 percent. The Wizards are 0-3 both straight up and ATS as coach Scott Brooks struggles to find some chemistry with his new team, which not only is playing little or no defense, but committed 20 turnovers in its 113-103 loss to Toronto. John Wall is doing his part as he scored 33 points with 11 assists on Wednesday, but the Wizards wasted a night when they shot 58.3 percent only to let the Raptors shoot 55.8 percent. The Wizards won't shoot that high a percentage in this matchup as Atlanta bounces back with a good defensive effort.
Spurs at Jazz
Pick: Under
These are two of the top defensive teams in the NBA. San Antonio coach Gregg Popovich was dismayed with the poor effort against Utah the last time out, a loss at home. The Spurs are 23-11 under the total against the Western Conference. San Antonio PG Tony Parker (knee) will sit out the contest. Utah is on a 15-7 run under the total. Utah lost 10 straight games in San Antonio before offseason acquisition George Hill scored 22 points to lead the Jazz to a 106-91 victory over the Spurs on Tuesday. Hill had another big game for the Jazz on Wednesday, when he scored 25 points in a 97-81 home victory over the Dallas Mavericks. And the Under is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings in Utah.
CENTRAL MICHIGAN AT MIAMI OHIO
PLAY: MIAMI OHIO +3.5
It looks to me like we have a pair of teams heading in opposite directions matching up tonight in the MAC. Central Michigan?s fast 3-0 start that included the highly controversial upset of Oklahoma State is becoming a distant memory. Miami Ohio has suddenly caught fire with three straight conference victories.
Miami was showing signs of breaking through in some early losses. They narrowly missed upsetting Western Kentucky and Cincinnati and might have knocked off Ohio if not for some critical turnovers. The breakthrough finally took place in an 18-14 comeback win against Kent State. The Redhawks have subsequently defeated both Bowling Green and Eastern Michigan.
CMU looked like a serious MAC contender early. The performance at Oklahoma State was impressive regardless of how the game ended, and the Chippewas were flying high when they traveled to Virginia. But the defense got exposed in that game and this team simply has not been the same since that loss.
Central Michigan certainly has plenty of reason to keep playing hard as they are certainly capable of getting to a bowl game, with five wins already tucked away. But if you watched them last week in a home game against Kent State, there is no way to be high on this team presently. The Chips seemed to have taken over that game with a 24-10 lead that included a 22-0 run. But they were unable to contain the Golden Flashes and ended up losing on a field goal at the final gun.
On paper, CMU is the more talented football team. But they are clearly not playing at anywhere near the level they displayed in September and one has to wonder about the hangover effect following a very bad loss last week.
Meanwhile, while there?s not a great deal of talent on hand, especially on offense, the Redhawks have wind in their sails. Shocking as it sounds, Miami could starting thinking about bowl eligibility with a win tonight. They?re at just three wins right now. But with Buffalo and Ball State to complete the regular season, there?s actually a chance the Redhawks could get to six wins if they come through tonight.
I would anticipate a close game. Central Michigan is clearly struggling, but they still own the talent edge. However, I?m more inclined to side with momentum in this clash, so I?ll side with Miami plus the points.
In the Sights, Friday NBA?
Let?s go back to Chicago and put something in the portfolio for Friday night. I do believe the Knicks will bring a lot of energy to this setting, trying to win it for Rose and Noah, and needless to say Rose will be a catalyst. That extra energy is much more likely to show on offense than defense, largely because the latter aspect is a long way from being ready, and with the Bulls relishing the opportunity to get out and run it will be #508 Chicago Team Total Over (8:05 Eastern) with 107.5 available in the morning trading, and value up to 108.
Let me introduce a phrase that will be used here often to help set perspective on the New York defense ? PVM, for ?Points vs. Market?. This is a way of showing how close the markets are to evaluating an offense or a defense, and while individual Team Totals are not tracked in many data-bases you can calculate this by using the closing Side/Total on each game as the market projection. So here is the New York defense so far this season:
Market Scoreboard
@CLE 107.5 117
MEM 98 104
@DET 103 102
HOU 108.5 118
NET -24
The Knicks are allowing 6.0 ppg more than the markets have anticipated, and it is actually even worse than that ? because their three losses have been one-sided, they only allowed 69 points across those three fourth quarter?s.
Chicago is well-set to take advantage of a bad defense, the Bulls being able to score from so many directions. They rate #3 in offensive efficiency so far and attribute some integrity to that, with a #1 in assists per game, and 72.9 percent of all made baskets coming from a teammates pass. Jimmy Butler and Dwyane Wade are showing that they can compliment each other; Rajon Rondo has some finishers that enable him to dish without having to score; and the dynamic of having Nikola Mirotic (14.0 ppg) and Doug McDermott (13.3) coming off the bench allows Hoiberg to mix and match his combinations based on weaknesses of the opposition. The Knicks bring plenty of them (Carmelo Anthony will have to chase either Mirotic or McDermott out beyond the ac).
Look for a lot of early energy here to set the tone, both Rose and Rondo pumped up for this setting and each of them being lousy defenders making it easier for the other side. And for our purposes it helps that the Knicks are off tomorrow, which means they may chase harder from behind than usual, which can create additional scoring opportunities.
Item: Derrick and Joakim come back to the Windy City
As noted often here, the NBA regular season is a long circus tour of various ebbs and flows, which puts a premium on gauging the focus level for particular games, not only in terms of predicting them, but also in the post mortem grading. One of the more fascinating episodes will take place tonight, when Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah play in Chicago, wearing the uniforms of the visiting team for the first time in their long NBA careers.
This one is so unusual in that these really have been long careers, Noah nine seasons with the Bulls, and Rose eight years and seven seasons, with both expecting to finish their career in Chicago until the Fred Hoiberg administration began to change things. And for Rose it really is a homecoming, to the city of his birth.
The awareness of the setting is there. From Rose - "That would be a dream (to get a unanimous ovation), but I know I'm going to get some boos here and there. It's all a part of the game, all a part of the sport. It's not going to affect the way that I play and how bad I want to win that game." And from Noah - ?I?m trying to stay focused on the moment. I know it?s going to be emotional.?
So let?s set some perspective and figure out if there is an opportunity created.
Item: A team will often step up to play harder when a game means something special for their teammates (but?)
One of the issues driving teams for settings like this is for the others to appreciate what it means to competitors like Rose and Noah, and to play even harder for their teammates. But is this necessarily the case for the Knicks, and might it possibly backfire?
New York enters the game with an awkward chemistry as the new pieces try to fit, which has resulted in some truly bad basketball - in going 1-3 SU and ATS the Knicks have come up 42.5 points short of the market expectations. It isn?t just execution but also effort ? they are #26 in defensive efficiency and #28 in rebounding.
As such, Jeff Hornacek is already aware of the potential trap tonight brings, and how it could backfire - ?You?ve got to be careful not trying to do too much. We?ve just got to play within ourselves and not try to do things that we?re not capable of doing. Maybe right now we all think we can score, but we need to figure out who should be the guys that are scoring.?
And Rose and Noah come front and center with an awareness of the overall team picture. First Rose - ?It sucks (being 1-3). I?ve been on teams where there?s a culture, and we?re trying to build a defensive culture here, and it takes time.? And Noah - ?It?s us coming in with the right intensity and having the will to fight. Obviously we have a lot work to do. It?s not the end of the world. There?s a lot of talent on the team. We got to stay patient.??
Is there something that we can do tonight? I believe so, and will get to it in a moment, but now for something that does need to become part of your NBA handicapping consciousness for this season -
Item: Past Knicks and Bulls trends have no meaning
I don?t want to be redundant because this is a point that gets made often, but because there is such a unique example, let?s spell it out. Both Chicago and New York have undergone major roster turnovers over the past two seasons, and also coaching changes, in the case of the Knicks multiple changes. So what is the worth of previous season?s data concerning these teams? Zero. Both should be treated as though they have started from scratch for 2016-17.
That is not an easy thing for some folks to do because using past patterns can be an integral part of the handicapping process. In this instance those patterns just don?t matter.
