07:35 PM NHL [2] Florida Panthers -126
08:35 PM NHL [6] Chicago Blackhawks -1.5 +205
09:05 PM NHL [8] Colorado Avalanche +133
10:05 PM NHL [10] TOTAL u5+116 (Calgary Flames vrs Vancouver Canucks)
10:05 PM NHL [12] Anaheim Ducks -1.5 +125
007:35 PM NBA [507] Philadelphia 76ers +11.5 -115
10:35 PM NBA [514] Golden State Warriors -13-115
07:00 PM CBB Added Game [529] Rider -3.5 -110
1 unit bet pays 412 ....betdsi line
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Maple Leafs vs. Devils
Play: Devils +106
We're getting the Devils at an underdog price but they could easily be favored. Consider the following. The Leafs are 8-12 on the road. The Devils are 10-6 at home. That includes a 5-4 win in this season's earlier meeting. (The Devils were laying -145 for that one.) Including that result, the Devils are a perfect 5-0 the last five times that they hosted the Leafs, a streak dating back to 2014. (They were laying a minimum of -129 for all five games.) The Devils outscored the Leafs by a combined 19-9 margin in those games.
The Leafs had their winning streak snapped last time out, while the Devils check in off back-to-back wins. They won those games by a combined 6-1 score, too, most recently a 3-1 win at Raleigh on Tuesday. The Devils, 5-2 (+3.4) when playing with two day's rest in between games, are a solid 10-7 (+3.6) against sub-500 teams. Again, when you think about it, they could easily be favored. Take a look at the "home dog" in this one.
Islanders @ Avalanche
Pick: Under 5.5
This is the third road game of a four-game trip out West for the Islanders. They face a Colorado squad under a first-year coach that has no offense, last in the NHL in goals scored, and #28 on the power play. Colorado has lost five in a row and 10 of its last 11. They're on a 10-game winless streak at home, a place they haven't won since November 14. Colorado has tallied 14 goals the last 10 games overall. When these teams clash at Colorado the UNDER is 8-2-1 and this total is too high.
Flames vs. Canucks
Play: Flames -110
Looks like a good spot to ride the visitors tonight. This is the opener of a home and home set between the clubs. Vancouver has won five straight after a nine-game losing streak. Calgary has been more consistent this season, most recently coming off a 4-1 win over Colorado at home. Neither team?s goaltending has been spectacular of late, so we?ll call that area a ?wash? for arguments sake. But note that Calgary is already 3-0 (+3.8 units) this season after playing three consecutive home games, while Vancouver is already 0-5 (-5 units) this year after a victory by two goals or more.
Nashville +107 over FLORIDA
OT included. This is probably not a good matchup in terms of styles for the Panthers. Florida is a team that likes to carry it into the zone before working the corners and boards in an attempt to pressure the opposing defense into making mistakes. Nashville?s defense is one of the best in the league in moving it out quickly and efficiently. The Preds are also a strong puck possession team and that?s another problem for the Panthers mistake-prone defense. While we like the Panthers to come up with some good games in the second half, they are a big risk when spotting a price. They were soundly outplayed by Winnipeg in their last game and there?s a great chance they?ll be soundly outplayed in this one too.
Florida is favored here for a couple of reasons. First, Nashville played in Tampa Bay last night. Second, the Preds back-up goaltender, Juuse Saros is almost guaranteed to start after Pekka Rinne played last night. While the market does not like getting behind back-up goaltenders or teams playing the tail end of back-to-backs, we like both situations very much. First, teams? often play their hardest when a back-up is in because they all appreciate the hard work and mental focus that a back-up must maintain all year long. It also doesn?t hurt our chances that Saros is better than Rinne. Next, the Preds are a team that has underachieved all year and that has taken plenty of heat for it too. That 6-1 win last night in Tampa will mean absolutely nothing if they give it back here. This game now has significant meaning to the Preds, as they have been unable to string together consecutive wins all year long. Lastly, some of Nashville?s best games this year have come in the second game of back-to-backs, which include a 5-1 win over Pittsburgh, a 5-1 win over New Jersey and most recently a 4-0 victory over the Blues.
COLORADO +130 over N.Y. Islanders
OT included. We completely understand the perils of the Avalanche. Colorado is almost unplayable right now because they can?t get out of its own way while losing almost every night. With three victories over its last 20 games, you would be hard-pressed to find a non-expansion team in the history of this game that has lost 17 of 20 games. However, we are going to put that all aside here for a couple of reasons. First, the Avs might have the worst record in the NHL but they have a solid collection of talent, especially up front that is not conducive to losing this many games. The Avs are more fragile in the mind than they are bad but they could not have hand-picked a more ripe team to get beat than the Islanders.
Yesterday we targeted the Wild, citing that the long layoff is a big detriment and while the Wild somehow rallied to win that game, trust us when we tell you that they were flat as hell to start and had a mere 11 shots on net after two periods. One of the more bizarre third periods that you?ll ever see followed and the result was an unlikely Minnesota win. The night before, all four teams that were off for an extended period, Dallas, Philly, Florida and Anaheim, were also flat. Now the Islanders come in after being off since last Saturday when they played in Winnipeg on New Year?s Eve. The Islanders are beatable on their best day and with nearly six full days off, they are spotting a price to the most desperate team in the NHL. Frankly, the Islanders are not good enough to be spotting a tag on the road to any team in this league and that includes the Avalanche. The situation is just right and so is the price.
GRIZZLIES AT WARRIORS
PLAY: WARRIORS -13.5
Unlike last season when they were basically all out to win every game big, this year it?s a case of picking spots to play the Warriors as heavy chalk.
I think this is one of those spots. Golden State should be up for this game, as they got their teeth kicked in at Memphis last month. Memphis was up 61-38 at halftime and it was a blowout from start to finish. I suspect we get a pretty intense effort from GS tonight as that was a humiliating defeat.
The Warriors had only three in-season revenge games last year and got the job done each time. They?ve had just one spot this year and beat the Lakers by 43. Memphis is a decent enough team, but I believe they?re in trouble tonight. I?m laying the lumber with the Warriors in this game.
Grizzlies/Warriors Over 215?
These two teams played back on 12/10 and the Grizzlies prevailed 110-89. It's one of just 5 losses all season for Golden State. I believe the fact that game ended up with just 199 combined points and going under the total of 211.5, has created some value here with the total in the rematch. For starters, the OVER is 50-20 (71%) over the last 5 seasons when you have a total of 210 or more with a home team revenging a road blowout loss of 20 or more.
Memphis is a team that is thought of as a defensive force, but it's been the opposite of late. The Grizzlies are averaging 107.4 ppg over their last 5 and have scored 100+ in each of their last 7. The big key here is the defense just isn't the same on the road. Memphis is allowing just 98.6 ppg on the season, but giving up 103.7 ppg on the road. This isn't a great spot for the Grizzlies, who will be playing their 4th straight road game over the last 7 days and their 6th road game in their last 7 games overall.
Warriors are averaging 121.4 ppg at home this season, while giving up 105.6 ppg. Given what happened in the first meeting with the Grizzlies, I look for Golden State to come out looking to put on a show offensively and send this one well over the mark.
Minnesota vs. Washington
Play: Over 210
Washington will do what they have been doing all year long, look to get production from their backcourt - from a variety of sources. Dishing 14 dimes, and 46 pts/game for Washington their starting Gs won't stop that scheme here. But matched up against a Minnesota team that gets stronger throughout as the game goes on, will be a slight challenge. Sometimes Andrew Wiggins can hang his shots a little - leaving himself open for tighter defense he has been completing only 44% of his shots this season. The Wolves don't knock down a lot from behind the arc very much, unless the team falls behind, and the Wizards's perimeter D will be too difficult to handle. Look for combined total score of points to be around 216-222.
Houston Rockets vs. Orlando Magic
Play: Houston Rockets -5.5
Houston had a big lead against Oklahoma City, but Westbrook had other thoughts as he willed the Thunder all the way back putting in 49 points, but needed over 50 as the Rockets hit a couple of free throws to win 118-116. Houston improves to 28-9 as they hit the road to Orlando. The Magic are under .500 at 16-21 and coming off a loss last time out. Orlando is 7-12 at home, but 7-6 against the West. Houston is 13-6 on the road and 8-3 against the East this time. Orlando simply doesn't have anyone that scores at the rate Harden does nor as a team can the Magic score with Houston. The Rockets score 114 points per game while the Magic are under 100 a game. Look for Houston to blast off from three point range as they win going away 120-100.
Rockets vs. Magic
Play: Magic +6
There's a saying that it's not who you play, but when you play them that is most important. That theory is going to be tested in a major way today in the Rockets-Magic matchup. Houston is a red-hot 17-2 in its last 19 games, winners of its last six games. Only Golden State averages more than the Rockets' 114.6 points per game. The Rockets have reached triple digits in their last 23 games. So why, pray tell, get involved with the Magic? The answer is the spot. Orlando is in one of the best situational spots of the season. The Rockets just nipped the Thunder, 118-116, in a nationally televised game last night and has a big revenge matchup against Toronto up next on Sunday. This marks the Rockets' first road contest since Dec. 27. It's a major letdown spot for the Rockets. Orlando is off an embarrassing home loss to red-hot Atlanta two days ago. The Magic go on the road for six straight games following this matchup. Evan Fournier, Orlando's leading scorer, returned against the Hawks after missing five games with a heel injury. He scored 14 points in 30 minutes getting the rust off. The Magic have improved their defense under Frank Vogel ranking 14th giving up 103.6 points a game. They should be pumped to play hard at home against this marquee opponent. The Rockets are a less daunting 5-5 ATS in their last 10 games.
New York at Milwaukee
Play: New York +6
The Knicks should have beaten the Bucks at Madison Square Garden two days ago. They lost 105-104 when Giannis Antetokounmpo hit a jumper at the buzzer after he should have been called for violating a five-second rule.
New York blew a 16-point lead in that game and have now lost six in a row. The Knicks lost that game minus their star power forward Kristaps Porzingis, who is their version of Antetokounmpo. Both are rising stars. Porzingis has missed the last three games with a sore Achilles. But he practiced on Thursday and I expect him to play today. Even if he doesn't, I still like the Knicks here in this circle-the-wagons, short revenge spot.
The Knicks played well and hard against the Bucks Carmelo Anthony broke out of his shooting slump to score 30 points pull down 11 rebounds and dish off seven assists. The Knicks certainly are not outclassed here.
76ers +11?
The Celtics consistently step up in statement games, bringing energy and execution against top notch foes. But Boston is not a ?win by double digits and blow teams out at home? type of squad; 0-fer the season ATS as favorites of -8 or higher.
In fact, Brad Stevens squad is just a 40% ATS proposition at home ? Boston is a ?back ?em on the highway, fade em at home? type of squad. They faced Miami on this floor as nine point chalk last week; my clients and I cashing a winning bet when the Celtics only won by three. Once again tonight, I?m not expecting Boston to bring their ?A? game for energy and effort.
The last time Boston played Philly on this floor, they won 84-80, never sniffing a pointspread cover as -12 point chalk. And when these two teams met up in Philadelphia last month, the Celtics barely escaped with a one point victory on an Isaiah Thomas layup in the final minute as ten point favorites. The Celtics are well aware that they don?t need their ?A? game to beat the 76ers, and have treated Philly accordingly.
There?s some ?bet-on? for Philadelphia in this handicap as well. Make no mistake about it ? the 76ers are getting better, game by game, week by week, after years of futility. The Sixers are coming off back-2-back two point wins over the T-wolves and Nuggets, their third set of back-2-back wins this season. Philly fought tooth and nail to extend those two previous winning streaks, taking Memphis to OT and hanging within single digits of Toronto; not a team that?s satisfied off a couple of victories. Throw in a 5-2 ATS mark in their last seven on the highway, with one of the losses coming in a seven point defeat at Phoenix as six point underdogs, and there?s a clear indicator that Philly is a ?bet-on? team in this road underdog role right now.
The 76ers interior size matches up well against Boston?s undersized group in the low post. Joel Embiid, Nerlens Noel and Jahlil Okafor are all expected to suit up tonight; a tough matchup for Amir Johnson, Al Horford and Kelly Olynyk, especially with Tyler Zeller suffering from a flu bug, unable to practice yesterday. Stretch 4 Ersan Ilyasova has been a huge boost for this team as well, another tough matchup for the Celtics defense. Bottom line? Too many points!
Boston -12
I think we got an all out romp here tonight...Boston won't let Philly get close in this one...Boston has been playing great basketball now that they are healthy...Celtics have won 8 of the last 10 games and they have been scoring a ton of points in games now...Philly has some serious health issues and Boston off a days rest will play some defense here tonight..I expect some of the starters for the Celtics to rest a bit, but Philly will need to use up the bench players rather heavy in this one as well...This line seems rather large, but Boston is by far the better team...Both teams are coming off back to back wins, but Boston gave up 100+ in both of those wins...Being at home I expect the defense to pick up here and Boston to keep the hammer down tonight.
Play: Wisc-Milwaukee +10
Certainly the season to date numbers so far for these teams favor Green Bay in a big way. However, in rivalry games one must remember to always be careful getting overly analytical with the numbers. Rivalry games play out with a ton of emotion and usually with the underdog raising their game to its highest level. Last season these teams met twice in the regular season and Milwaukee won their home game by a point and Green Bay won their home game by 2 points. The teams then met on a neutral site in the conference tourney and the Phoenix won that game by 9 points. The point is that none of last season's games were decided by a double digit margin PLUS the Panthers have conference tourney revenge as a motivator in this one! In games with a posted total in the 140s this season, UW-Milwaukee has gone 3-0 ATS! Even though UW-Green Bay is 3-1 SU at home this season only two of the games were lined and they didn't cover either one of those games. Look for this one to play out much closer than many are expecting as this rivalry brings out the best in the Panthers. UW Milwaukee is certainly in rebuilding mode this season and has gone through a coaching change but even though they are only 2-7 in their last 9 games, they have been playing better overall and only 2 of those 9 game resulted in a loss by double digits for the Panthers. Look for them to be "in this one" all the way.
Wisc Milwaukee at Wisc Green Bay
Pick: Under
Conference play can mean tougher defense, as can rivalry games like this one. Wisconsin-Milwaukee is not a good shooting team, #245 in the nation in shooting, including 65.3% from the free throw line. On the road, the Panthers are averaging 66.2 scoring. The Under is 7-3 in the Panthers last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Green Bay Phoenix aren't much better, ranked #231 for offensive field goal percentage shooting 42.3%, plus 67.4% from the free throw line. Green Bay is 6-2 under the total at home.
Tonight's freebie is on the Iona Gaels, taking the points on the road against he Monmouth Hawks.
Trust me, the oddsmakers are making a big mistake by siding with the home team. I know Iona has lost three of four, but Monmouth has lost three in a row and it is giving up a lot of points right now. Just in its last three games, Monmouth has given up 102, 93 and 71 points. Over their last five, the Hawks have allowed an average of 87 points per game.
And if there were ever a time the Gaels needed a breakout game, against a fledgling team with a weak scoring defense, this is the one. It's not as if Iona is going to take Monmouth lightly, not when the Hawks are 10-5 on the year, and the two are tied in league play at 2-2.
The road team won both meetings last season, and the Gaels scored a 79-76 win in the conference tournament. Take the road team here, as Iona aims for the outright win.
MONMOUTH -5? over Iona
The Hawks have had this date circled on the calendar since March, as it is an opportunity for Monmouth to avenge a MEAC Championship Game loss to this Gaels' team that cost them a conference championship and a bid to the 2016 Men?s National Basketball Tournament. Revenge is an angle we seldom use because it?s an overused one but there are exceptions to every rule and this one fits that bill because the loss was a resonating one. Heading into the aforementioned contest, many bracketologists were penciling the Hawks in while prognosticating which teams would fall victim to this squad. Nevertheless, Iona would pull off the upset in March, which is very likely still weighing heavily on the host. Monmouth was pulverizing every opponent they came across before that MEAC Championship Game and perhaps took the Gaels lightly but they won?t make that mistake here. Iona has been a perpetual thorn in the Hawks side and it?s now time to put an end to that.
Monmouth comes in at 10-5 but it has hit a three-game skid so its stock is lower than it should be. We also like that Monmouth has stepped up in terms of scheduling. The Hawks are looking to prove they are not just another mid-major team with a pretty record and fragile glass slipper. Monmouth has already traveled to Memphis, North Carolina, Syracuse and South Carolina to comprise a challenging out-of-conference docket. In those four games, the Hawks followed suit of most mid-majors when they were routed by Syracuse and UNC but they did put up 74 points against the Tar Heels. However, the Hawks lost to South Carolina by just a point in overtime and they defeated Memphis outright. They also have a very nice win over Princeton.
Iona?s best opponents were Florida State, Nevada (twice) and Weber State where the Gaels would go 2-2 against that trio while getting rolled by FSU and Nevada in the process. Those three opponents do not stack up anywhere close to the prestige and prominence of teams such as Memphis, UNC and Syracuse. The most compelling storyline from a consensus perspective is that Iona beat a St. Peter?s team that Monmouth most recently lost to but the Hawks were on the road the day after New Year?s for that game and we don?t put much weight on losses occurred during ?party time? for a bunch of college kids. The Gaels are a weak 9-6. They lost to a Delaware team that was down 40-7 to Northeastern last night and ended up losing by 36 points.
The Hawks have an opportunity here to recollect themselves and reinvigorate their season against a team they are foaming at the mouth to take on. These Hawks are 5-1 at home this season and it is without question the Gaels will be stepping into an animated and electrified environment where hostilities will be at a premium. In one of our sports-betting podcasts (Episode 10), we talk about the sharpest book in the business (Pinny). They priced Monmouth half of a point higher than the trending number which gives us a green light to swallow these points. One of our best angles is paying attention to that aforementioned book and they have spoken here.
08:35 PM NHL [6] Chicago Blackhawks -1.5 +205
09:05 PM NHL [8] Colorado Avalanche +133
10:05 PM NHL [10] TOTAL u5+116 (Calgary Flames vrs Vancouver Canucks)
10:05 PM NHL [12] Anaheim Ducks -1.5 +125
007:35 PM NBA [507] Philadelphia 76ers +11.5 -115
10:35 PM NBA [514] Golden State Warriors -13-115
07:00 PM CBB Added Game [529] Rider -3.5 -110
1 unit bet pays 412 ....betdsi line
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Maple Leafs vs. Devils
Play: Devils +106
We're getting the Devils at an underdog price but they could easily be favored. Consider the following. The Leafs are 8-12 on the road. The Devils are 10-6 at home. That includes a 5-4 win in this season's earlier meeting. (The Devils were laying -145 for that one.) Including that result, the Devils are a perfect 5-0 the last five times that they hosted the Leafs, a streak dating back to 2014. (They were laying a minimum of -129 for all five games.) The Devils outscored the Leafs by a combined 19-9 margin in those games.
The Leafs had their winning streak snapped last time out, while the Devils check in off back-to-back wins. They won those games by a combined 6-1 score, too, most recently a 3-1 win at Raleigh on Tuesday. The Devils, 5-2 (+3.4) when playing with two day's rest in between games, are a solid 10-7 (+3.6) against sub-500 teams. Again, when you think about it, they could easily be favored. Take a look at the "home dog" in this one.
Islanders @ Avalanche
Pick: Under 5.5
This is the third road game of a four-game trip out West for the Islanders. They face a Colorado squad under a first-year coach that has no offense, last in the NHL in goals scored, and #28 on the power play. Colorado has lost five in a row and 10 of its last 11. They're on a 10-game winless streak at home, a place they haven't won since November 14. Colorado has tallied 14 goals the last 10 games overall. When these teams clash at Colorado the UNDER is 8-2-1 and this total is too high.
Flames vs. Canucks
Play: Flames -110
Looks like a good spot to ride the visitors tonight. This is the opener of a home and home set between the clubs. Vancouver has won five straight after a nine-game losing streak. Calgary has been more consistent this season, most recently coming off a 4-1 win over Colorado at home. Neither team?s goaltending has been spectacular of late, so we?ll call that area a ?wash? for arguments sake. But note that Calgary is already 3-0 (+3.8 units) this season after playing three consecutive home games, while Vancouver is already 0-5 (-5 units) this year after a victory by two goals or more.
Nashville +107 over FLORIDA
OT included. This is probably not a good matchup in terms of styles for the Panthers. Florida is a team that likes to carry it into the zone before working the corners and boards in an attempt to pressure the opposing defense into making mistakes. Nashville?s defense is one of the best in the league in moving it out quickly and efficiently. The Preds are also a strong puck possession team and that?s another problem for the Panthers mistake-prone defense. While we like the Panthers to come up with some good games in the second half, they are a big risk when spotting a price. They were soundly outplayed by Winnipeg in their last game and there?s a great chance they?ll be soundly outplayed in this one too.
Florida is favored here for a couple of reasons. First, Nashville played in Tampa Bay last night. Second, the Preds back-up goaltender, Juuse Saros is almost guaranteed to start after Pekka Rinne played last night. While the market does not like getting behind back-up goaltenders or teams playing the tail end of back-to-backs, we like both situations very much. First, teams? often play their hardest when a back-up is in because they all appreciate the hard work and mental focus that a back-up must maintain all year long. It also doesn?t hurt our chances that Saros is better than Rinne. Next, the Preds are a team that has underachieved all year and that has taken plenty of heat for it too. That 6-1 win last night in Tampa will mean absolutely nothing if they give it back here. This game now has significant meaning to the Preds, as they have been unable to string together consecutive wins all year long. Lastly, some of Nashville?s best games this year have come in the second game of back-to-backs, which include a 5-1 win over Pittsburgh, a 5-1 win over New Jersey and most recently a 4-0 victory over the Blues.
COLORADO +130 over N.Y. Islanders
OT included. We completely understand the perils of the Avalanche. Colorado is almost unplayable right now because they can?t get out of its own way while losing almost every night. With three victories over its last 20 games, you would be hard-pressed to find a non-expansion team in the history of this game that has lost 17 of 20 games. However, we are going to put that all aside here for a couple of reasons. First, the Avs might have the worst record in the NHL but they have a solid collection of talent, especially up front that is not conducive to losing this many games. The Avs are more fragile in the mind than they are bad but they could not have hand-picked a more ripe team to get beat than the Islanders.
Yesterday we targeted the Wild, citing that the long layoff is a big detriment and while the Wild somehow rallied to win that game, trust us when we tell you that they were flat as hell to start and had a mere 11 shots on net after two periods. One of the more bizarre third periods that you?ll ever see followed and the result was an unlikely Minnesota win. The night before, all four teams that were off for an extended period, Dallas, Philly, Florida and Anaheim, were also flat. Now the Islanders come in after being off since last Saturday when they played in Winnipeg on New Year?s Eve. The Islanders are beatable on their best day and with nearly six full days off, they are spotting a price to the most desperate team in the NHL. Frankly, the Islanders are not good enough to be spotting a tag on the road to any team in this league and that includes the Avalanche. The situation is just right and so is the price.
GRIZZLIES AT WARRIORS
PLAY: WARRIORS -13.5
Unlike last season when they were basically all out to win every game big, this year it?s a case of picking spots to play the Warriors as heavy chalk.
I think this is one of those spots. Golden State should be up for this game, as they got their teeth kicked in at Memphis last month. Memphis was up 61-38 at halftime and it was a blowout from start to finish. I suspect we get a pretty intense effort from GS tonight as that was a humiliating defeat.
The Warriors had only three in-season revenge games last year and got the job done each time. They?ve had just one spot this year and beat the Lakers by 43. Memphis is a decent enough team, but I believe they?re in trouble tonight. I?m laying the lumber with the Warriors in this game.
Grizzlies/Warriors Over 215?
These two teams played back on 12/10 and the Grizzlies prevailed 110-89. It's one of just 5 losses all season for Golden State. I believe the fact that game ended up with just 199 combined points and going under the total of 211.5, has created some value here with the total in the rematch. For starters, the OVER is 50-20 (71%) over the last 5 seasons when you have a total of 210 or more with a home team revenging a road blowout loss of 20 or more.
Memphis is a team that is thought of as a defensive force, but it's been the opposite of late. The Grizzlies are averaging 107.4 ppg over their last 5 and have scored 100+ in each of their last 7. The big key here is the defense just isn't the same on the road. Memphis is allowing just 98.6 ppg on the season, but giving up 103.7 ppg on the road. This isn't a great spot for the Grizzlies, who will be playing their 4th straight road game over the last 7 days and their 6th road game in their last 7 games overall.
Warriors are averaging 121.4 ppg at home this season, while giving up 105.6 ppg. Given what happened in the first meeting with the Grizzlies, I look for Golden State to come out looking to put on a show offensively and send this one well over the mark.
Minnesota vs. Washington
Play: Over 210
Washington will do what they have been doing all year long, look to get production from their backcourt - from a variety of sources. Dishing 14 dimes, and 46 pts/game for Washington their starting Gs won't stop that scheme here. But matched up against a Minnesota team that gets stronger throughout as the game goes on, will be a slight challenge. Sometimes Andrew Wiggins can hang his shots a little - leaving himself open for tighter defense he has been completing only 44% of his shots this season. The Wolves don't knock down a lot from behind the arc very much, unless the team falls behind, and the Wizards's perimeter D will be too difficult to handle. Look for combined total score of points to be around 216-222.
Houston Rockets vs. Orlando Magic
Play: Houston Rockets -5.5
Houston had a big lead against Oklahoma City, but Westbrook had other thoughts as he willed the Thunder all the way back putting in 49 points, but needed over 50 as the Rockets hit a couple of free throws to win 118-116. Houston improves to 28-9 as they hit the road to Orlando. The Magic are under .500 at 16-21 and coming off a loss last time out. Orlando is 7-12 at home, but 7-6 against the West. Houston is 13-6 on the road and 8-3 against the East this time. Orlando simply doesn't have anyone that scores at the rate Harden does nor as a team can the Magic score with Houston. The Rockets score 114 points per game while the Magic are under 100 a game. Look for Houston to blast off from three point range as they win going away 120-100.
Rockets vs. Magic
Play: Magic +6
There's a saying that it's not who you play, but when you play them that is most important. That theory is going to be tested in a major way today in the Rockets-Magic matchup. Houston is a red-hot 17-2 in its last 19 games, winners of its last six games. Only Golden State averages more than the Rockets' 114.6 points per game. The Rockets have reached triple digits in their last 23 games. So why, pray tell, get involved with the Magic? The answer is the spot. Orlando is in one of the best situational spots of the season. The Rockets just nipped the Thunder, 118-116, in a nationally televised game last night and has a big revenge matchup against Toronto up next on Sunday. This marks the Rockets' first road contest since Dec. 27. It's a major letdown spot for the Rockets. Orlando is off an embarrassing home loss to red-hot Atlanta two days ago. The Magic go on the road for six straight games following this matchup. Evan Fournier, Orlando's leading scorer, returned against the Hawks after missing five games with a heel injury. He scored 14 points in 30 minutes getting the rust off. The Magic have improved their defense under Frank Vogel ranking 14th giving up 103.6 points a game. They should be pumped to play hard at home against this marquee opponent. The Rockets are a less daunting 5-5 ATS in their last 10 games.
New York at Milwaukee
Play: New York +6
The Knicks should have beaten the Bucks at Madison Square Garden two days ago. They lost 105-104 when Giannis Antetokounmpo hit a jumper at the buzzer after he should have been called for violating a five-second rule.
New York blew a 16-point lead in that game and have now lost six in a row. The Knicks lost that game minus their star power forward Kristaps Porzingis, who is their version of Antetokounmpo. Both are rising stars. Porzingis has missed the last three games with a sore Achilles. But he practiced on Thursday and I expect him to play today. Even if he doesn't, I still like the Knicks here in this circle-the-wagons, short revenge spot.
The Knicks played well and hard against the Bucks Carmelo Anthony broke out of his shooting slump to score 30 points pull down 11 rebounds and dish off seven assists. The Knicks certainly are not outclassed here.
76ers +11?
The Celtics consistently step up in statement games, bringing energy and execution against top notch foes. But Boston is not a ?win by double digits and blow teams out at home? type of squad; 0-fer the season ATS as favorites of -8 or higher.
In fact, Brad Stevens squad is just a 40% ATS proposition at home ? Boston is a ?back ?em on the highway, fade em at home? type of squad. They faced Miami on this floor as nine point chalk last week; my clients and I cashing a winning bet when the Celtics only won by three. Once again tonight, I?m not expecting Boston to bring their ?A? game for energy and effort.
The last time Boston played Philly on this floor, they won 84-80, never sniffing a pointspread cover as -12 point chalk. And when these two teams met up in Philadelphia last month, the Celtics barely escaped with a one point victory on an Isaiah Thomas layup in the final minute as ten point favorites. The Celtics are well aware that they don?t need their ?A? game to beat the 76ers, and have treated Philly accordingly.
There?s some ?bet-on? for Philadelphia in this handicap as well. Make no mistake about it ? the 76ers are getting better, game by game, week by week, after years of futility. The Sixers are coming off back-2-back two point wins over the T-wolves and Nuggets, their third set of back-2-back wins this season. Philly fought tooth and nail to extend those two previous winning streaks, taking Memphis to OT and hanging within single digits of Toronto; not a team that?s satisfied off a couple of victories. Throw in a 5-2 ATS mark in their last seven on the highway, with one of the losses coming in a seven point defeat at Phoenix as six point underdogs, and there?s a clear indicator that Philly is a ?bet-on? team in this road underdog role right now.
The 76ers interior size matches up well against Boston?s undersized group in the low post. Joel Embiid, Nerlens Noel and Jahlil Okafor are all expected to suit up tonight; a tough matchup for Amir Johnson, Al Horford and Kelly Olynyk, especially with Tyler Zeller suffering from a flu bug, unable to practice yesterday. Stretch 4 Ersan Ilyasova has been a huge boost for this team as well, another tough matchup for the Celtics defense. Bottom line? Too many points!
Boston -12
I think we got an all out romp here tonight...Boston won't let Philly get close in this one...Boston has been playing great basketball now that they are healthy...Celtics have won 8 of the last 10 games and they have been scoring a ton of points in games now...Philly has some serious health issues and Boston off a days rest will play some defense here tonight..I expect some of the starters for the Celtics to rest a bit, but Philly will need to use up the bench players rather heavy in this one as well...This line seems rather large, but Boston is by far the better team...Both teams are coming off back to back wins, but Boston gave up 100+ in both of those wins...Being at home I expect the defense to pick up here and Boston to keep the hammer down tonight.
Play: Wisc-Milwaukee +10
Certainly the season to date numbers so far for these teams favor Green Bay in a big way. However, in rivalry games one must remember to always be careful getting overly analytical with the numbers. Rivalry games play out with a ton of emotion and usually with the underdog raising their game to its highest level. Last season these teams met twice in the regular season and Milwaukee won their home game by a point and Green Bay won their home game by 2 points. The teams then met on a neutral site in the conference tourney and the Phoenix won that game by 9 points. The point is that none of last season's games were decided by a double digit margin PLUS the Panthers have conference tourney revenge as a motivator in this one! In games with a posted total in the 140s this season, UW-Milwaukee has gone 3-0 ATS! Even though UW-Green Bay is 3-1 SU at home this season only two of the games were lined and they didn't cover either one of those games. Look for this one to play out much closer than many are expecting as this rivalry brings out the best in the Panthers. UW Milwaukee is certainly in rebuilding mode this season and has gone through a coaching change but even though they are only 2-7 in their last 9 games, they have been playing better overall and only 2 of those 9 game resulted in a loss by double digits for the Panthers. Look for them to be "in this one" all the way.
Wisc Milwaukee at Wisc Green Bay
Pick: Under
Conference play can mean tougher defense, as can rivalry games like this one. Wisconsin-Milwaukee is not a good shooting team, #245 in the nation in shooting, including 65.3% from the free throw line. On the road, the Panthers are averaging 66.2 scoring. The Under is 7-3 in the Panthers last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Green Bay Phoenix aren't much better, ranked #231 for offensive field goal percentage shooting 42.3%, plus 67.4% from the free throw line. Green Bay is 6-2 under the total at home.
Tonight's freebie is on the Iona Gaels, taking the points on the road against he Monmouth Hawks.
Trust me, the oddsmakers are making a big mistake by siding with the home team. I know Iona has lost three of four, but Monmouth has lost three in a row and it is giving up a lot of points right now. Just in its last three games, Monmouth has given up 102, 93 and 71 points. Over their last five, the Hawks have allowed an average of 87 points per game.
And if there were ever a time the Gaels needed a breakout game, against a fledgling team with a weak scoring defense, this is the one. It's not as if Iona is going to take Monmouth lightly, not when the Hawks are 10-5 on the year, and the two are tied in league play at 2-2.
The road team won both meetings last season, and the Gaels scored a 79-76 win in the conference tournament. Take the road team here, as Iona aims for the outright win.
MONMOUTH -5? over Iona
The Hawks have had this date circled on the calendar since March, as it is an opportunity for Monmouth to avenge a MEAC Championship Game loss to this Gaels' team that cost them a conference championship and a bid to the 2016 Men?s National Basketball Tournament. Revenge is an angle we seldom use because it?s an overused one but there are exceptions to every rule and this one fits that bill because the loss was a resonating one. Heading into the aforementioned contest, many bracketologists were penciling the Hawks in while prognosticating which teams would fall victim to this squad. Nevertheless, Iona would pull off the upset in March, which is very likely still weighing heavily on the host. Monmouth was pulverizing every opponent they came across before that MEAC Championship Game and perhaps took the Gaels lightly but they won?t make that mistake here. Iona has been a perpetual thorn in the Hawks side and it?s now time to put an end to that.
Monmouth comes in at 10-5 but it has hit a three-game skid so its stock is lower than it should be. We also like that Monmouth has stepped up in terms of scheduling. The Hawks are looking to prove they are not just another mid-major team with a pretty record and fragile glass slipper. Monmouth has already traveled to Memphis, North Carolina, Syracuse and South Carolina to comprise a challenging out-of-conference docket. In those four games, the Hawks followed suit of most mid-majors when they were routed by Syracuse and UNC but they did put up 74 points against the Tar Heels. However, the Hawks lost to South Carolina by just a point in overtime and they defeated Memphis outright. They also have a very nice win over Princeton.
Iona?s best opponents were Florida State, Nevada (twice) and Weber State where the Gaels would go 2-2 against that trio while getting rolled by FSU and Nevada in the process. Those three opponents do not stack up anywhere close to the prestige and prominence of teams such as Memphis, UNC and Syracuse. The most compelling storyline from a consensus perspective is that Iona beat a St. Peter?s team that Monmouth most recently lost to but the Hawks were on the road the day after New Year?s for that game and we don?t put much weight on losses occurred during ?party time? for a bunch of college kids. The Gaels are a weak 9-6. They lost to a Delaware team that was down 40-7 to Northeastern last night and ended up losing by 36 points.
The Hawks have an opportunity here to recollect themselves and reinvigorate their season against a team they are foaming at the mouth to take on. These Hawks are 5-1 at home this season and it is without question the Gaels will be stepping into an animated and electrified environment where hostilities will be at a premium. In one of our sports-betting podcasts (Episode 10), we talk about the sharpest book in the business (Pinny). They priced Monmouth half of a point higher than the trending number which gives us a green light to swallow these points. One of our best angles is paying attention to that aforementioned book and they have spoken here.
