Fri nite recap:
Super 12: Blues 36 Hurricanes 17. Urrghh! A torrential downpour in Auckland two hours before kickoff turned this one into a lottery as Eden Park was underwater in many areas. The 'Canes began well and led 11-3 but forgot the conditions and comitted two costly fundamental errors when running the ball out as the Blues scored two tries from turnovers to lead 18-11 at the break. The visitors again did well in the early stages of the second spell but David Holwell missed two crucial penalties when the 'Canes should have tried to rumble over from close to the line. After that, the 'Canes lineout disintegrated thanks to some abysmal throwing from Norm Hewitt - time for a drink Normie! - and the Blues grew in confidence to put the result beyond doubt i the last 10 minutes. Have to take this one on the chin.
In the other match which I didn't play, the Brumbies demolished the Chiefs, who spent 20 minutes with 14 men after having Bruce Reihana and Paul Mitchell sinbinned. When the Brumbies get on a roll at home they are unstoppable.
NRL:
Sharks 6 Bulldogs 20
Sharks played exactly to form, no inspiration whatsoever on attack, a nice win.
Saturday's previews and plays:
Super 12: Three games left in the regular season and for the punters, three good plays.
Game 4) Otago Highlanders v Canterbury Crusaders, Carisbrook
Highlanders -4.5
The Highlanders are still alive in the race for the final playoff spot after losses by the Hurricanes and the Chiefs last night. A win with four tries would give them five points and leap them to fourth spot with 30 points, putting the pressure on the Reds (28 points). The Highlanders have made four changes from the side that lost 33-22 away to the Reds last week, and all four switches should strengthen the side. Romi Ropati returns at centre for Eroni Clarke, openside flier Josh Blackie makes his starting debut in place of Finau Maka, All Black prop Kees Meeuws replaces fellow AB Carl Hoeft as Carl Hayman switches to the loosehead to match-up against Greg Somerville while likely new AB skipper Anton Oliver returns from injury to replace Tom Willis. The Crusaders will have Andrew Mehrtens back but their backline will require an added reshuffle with impressive fullback Leon McDonald out injured. The Highlanders are 5-0 SU at home this season and 4-1 ATS while the Crusaders are 1-4 SU away and 1-4 ATS. After being run over in the first 20 minutes by the Reds, the Highlanders were the better side in the last 60 minutes and could have won had they not spilled the ball when crashing over the line for a try which would have put them in front approximately 15 minutes into the second half. The three-times defending champions have failed to hit great heights this season, with their renown defence a big disappointment. With plenty of incentive still left for Oliver's army ...
PLAY HIGHLANDERS -4.5
Game 4) NSW Waratahs v Queensland Reds, SFS
Waratahs pick 'em
The Waratahs could have their slim semifinal hopes ended before this game starts if the Highlanders win. But this is still another good spot for an unbeaten side at home - Waratahs are 5-0 SU and ATS at home in 2001. In State of Origin Super 12-style, the Waratahs would like nothing better than to deny their arch-rivals a place in the semifinals. Prior to last weekend's 25-22 win over the Crusaders I thought the Waratahs had virtually run out of gas for the campaign but they showed admirable spirit and some previously unseen toughness up front to get home narrowly. The Reds are an incredible 8-2 ATS this season; being a punters' dream as they have covered the spread 4-0 ATS on the road as underdogs. They have been bolstered of late by the return of Wallabies skipper John Eales, accurate goalkicker Elton Flatley and winger Ben Tune but are still a limited side in terms of skill. If the Waratahs, driven on by ...., can match possession and territory with the visitors, their pace out wide thru the likes of Stcherbina and Staniforth could test Tune, who still appears short of a gallop, and the dodgy Nathan Williams. The clash between outstanding fullbacks Matthew Burke and Chris Latham should be a tremendous individual highlight.
PLAY WARATAHS PICK 'EM
Game 6) Stormers v Sharks, Boland, Wellington, Sth Africa
Stormers pick 'em
After having two home teams with small numbers to cover, the value here is with the visitors. The Sharks - 7-3 ATS, 3-2 ATS away - are off a bye and after the Brumbies clinched top spot and with the Cats likely to move into second place overnight prior to this being written, know they have to win to secure the other home semifinal. The Stormers - 5-5 ATS, 2-3 ATS at home - would only have a sniff at the four if both the Highlanders and Reds lose prior to this encounter. The hosts lose some of their home advantage by playing this game at Wellington instead of their favoured venue of Cape Town. They have climbed up the table a little in recent weeks with wins over the Chiefs (h) and the Bulls (a) after a shock home loss to the Blues but neither victory was impressive as they scavenged out the wins thru a host of turnovers by the opposition. They can't expect the same luxury against the well-drilled Sharks, who have been the find of the season under new coach Rudolf Straeuli and play a simple and effective gameplan based on ball control. The Sharks huge forward pack will aim to dictate up front before releasing their pacy and muscular backs agains the fleet-footed Stormers. This will be a grudge encounter, with the Sharks' skipper Mark Andrews describing the opponents as "the pretty boys of SA rugby" recently - and with bottle-blonde fullback with the white boots Percy Montgomery in their line-up, it's hard to argue with him. The visitors should have too much consistency, control and desire here and at this line represent good value.
PLAY SHARKS PICK 'EM
NRL:
Just one play on Saturday that offers value.
Game 3) Northern Eagles v Parramatta Eels, Brookvale Oval
Eagles +3.5
The Eagles have won two in a row and somehow managed to keep a place in the top eight despite being one of the poorer teams in the NRL - which admittedly does possess two or three truly woeful ones. Their wins have come away to the Cowboys 24-22 in rd 10 in an awful game poorly refereed and then beat Canberra 24-16 at home in rd 11 a fortnight ago. But a closer look doesn't paint a pretty picture. Against the Cowboys they could manage just a 54% completion rate, with 22 missed tackles and 16 errors and v the Raiders, a marginally better 57% completion rate with 26 missed tackles and 13 errors. Impossible to judge the Eels on their 66-12 demolition of the pathetic Tigers in rd 11 - 78% completion rate and 5 errors but v no opposition - while against the Bulldogs in a 20-20 draw they again completed 77% of their sets with just 5 mistakes. The Eels will attempt to run their big yet mobile forwards like the Hindmarsh brothers at the Eagles' halves of Brett Kimmorley and Ben Walker while also aiming to snipe around the ruck from quick play-the-balls thru outstanding rake Brad Drew. Kimmorley is the attacking kingpin for the Eagles but often doesn't have much go-forward to work with. While the home crowd, the fact that it is Eagles' hooker Geoff Toovey's 300th NRL match and the knowledge that the Eels can run hot and cold very quickly has given the hosts a small points start, I have to side with the difference in quality at less than a converted try.
PLAY PARRAMATTA EELS -3.5
AFL picks: Hawthorn -17.5, Brisbane pick 'em, Port Adelaide -20.5, Carlton -11.5.
GLTA
Super 12: Blues 36 Hurricanes 17. Urrghh! A torrential downpour in Auckland two hours before kickoff turned this one into a lottery as Eden Park was underwater in many areas. The 'Canes began well and led 11-3 but forgot the conditions and comitted two costly fundamental errors when running the ball out as the Blues scored two tries from turnovers to lead 18-11 at the break. The visitors again did well in the early stages of the second spell but David Holwell missed two crucial penalties when the 'Canes should have tried to rumble over from close to the line. After that, the 'Canes lineout disintegrated thanks to some abysmal throwing from Norm Hewitt - time for a drink Normie! - and the Blues grew in confidence to put the result beyond doubt i the last 10 minutes. Have to take this one on the chin.
In the other match which I didn't play, the Brumbies demolished the Chiefs, who spent 20 minutes with 14 men after having Bruce Reihana and Paul Mitchell sinbinned. When the Brumbies get on a roll at home they are unstoppable.
NRL:
Sharks 6 Bulldogs 20
Saturday's previews and plays:
Super 12: Three games left in the regular season and for the punters, three good plays.
Game 4) Otago Highlanders v Canterbury Crusaders, Carisbrook
Highlanders -4.5
The Highlanders are still alive in the race for the final playoff spot after losses by the Hurricanes and the Chiefs last night. A win with four tries would give them five points and leap them to fourth spot with 30 points, putting the pressure on the Reds (28 points). The Highlanders have made four changes from the side that lost 33-22 away to the Reds last week, and all four switches should strengthen the side. Romi Ropati returns at centre for Eroni Clarke, openside flier Josh Blackie makes his starting debut in place of Finau Maka, All Black prop Kees Meeuws replaces fellow AB Carl Hoeft as Carl Hayman switches to the loosehead to match-up against Greg Somerville while likely new AB skipper Anton Oliver returns from injury to replace Tom Willis. The Crusaders will have Andrew Mehrtens back but their backline will require an added reshuffle with impressive fullback Leon McDonald out injured. The Highlanders are 5-0 SU at home this season and 4-1 ATS while the Crusaders are 1-4 SU away and 1-4 ATS. After being run over in the first 20 minutes by the Reds, the Highlanders were the better side in the last 60 minutes and could have won had they not spilled the ball when crashing over the line for a try which would have put them in front approximately 15 minutes into the second half. The three-times defending champions have failed to hit great heights this season, with their renown defence a big disappointment. With plenty of incentive still left for Oliver's army ...
PLAY HIGHLANDERS -4.5
Game 4) NSW Waratahs v Queensland Reds, SFS
Waratahs pick 'em
The Waratahs could have their slim semifinal hopes ended before this game starts if the Highlanders win. But this is still another good spot for an unbeaten side at home - Waratahs are 5-0 SU and ATS at home in 2001. In State of Origin Super 12-style, the Waratahs would like nothing better than to deny their arch-rivals a place in the semifinals. Prior to last weekend's 25-22 win over the Crusaders I thought the Waratahs had virtually run out of gas for the campaign but they showed admirable spirit and some previously unseen toughness up front to get home narrowly. The Reds are an incredible 8-2 ATS this season; being a punters' dream as they have covered the spread 4-0 ATS on the road as underdogs. They have been bolstered of late by the return of Wallabies skipper John Eales, accurate goalkicker Elton Flatley and winger Ben Tune but are still a limited side in terms of skill. If the Waratahs, driven on by ...., can match possession and territory with the visitors, their pace out wide thru the likes of Stcherbina and Staniforth could test Tune, who still appears short of a gallop, and the dodgy Nathan Williams. The clash between outstanding fullbacks Matthew Burke and Chris Latham should be a tremendous individual highlight.
PLAY WARATAHS PICK 'EM
Game 6) Stormers v Sharks, Boland, Wellington, Sth Africa
Stormers pick 'em
After having two home teams with small numbers to cover, the value here is with the visitors. The Sharks - 7-3 ATS, 3-2 ATS away - are off a bye and after the Brumbies clinched top spot and with the Cats likely to move into second place overnight prior to this being written, know they have to win to secure the other home semifinal. The Stormers - 5-5 ATS, 2-3 ATS at home - would only have a sniff at the four if both the Highlanders and Reds lose prior to this encounter. The hosts lose some of their home advantage by playing this game at Wellington instead of their favoured venue of Cape Town. They have climbed up the table a little in recent weeks with wins over the Chiefs (h) and the Bulls (a) after a shock home loss to the Blues but neither victory was impressive as they scavenged out the wins thru a host of turnovers by the opposition. They can't expect the same luxury against the well-drilled Sharks, who have been the find of the season under new coach Rudolf Straeuli and play a simple and effective gameplan based on ball control. The Sharks huge forward pack will aim to dictate up front before releasing their pacy and muscular backs agains the fleet-footed Stormers. This will be a grudge encounter, with the Sharks' skipper Mark Andrews describing the opponents as "the pretty boys of SA rugby" recently - and with bottle-blonde fullback with the white boots Percy Montgomery in their line-up, it's hard to argue with him. The visitors should have too much consistency, control and desire here and at this line represent good value.
PLAY SHARKS PICK 'EM
NRL:
Just one play on Saturday that offers value.
Game 3) Northern Eagles v Parramatta Eels, Brookvale Oval
Eagles +3.5
The Eagles have won two in a row and somehow managed to keep a place in the top eight despite being one of the poorer teams in the NRL - which admittedly does possess two or three truly woeful ones. Their wins have come away to the Cowboys 24-22 in rd 10 in an awful game poorly refereed and then beat Canberra 24-16 at home in rd 11 a fortnight ago. But a closer look doesn't paint a pretty picture. Against the Cowboys they could manage just a 54% completion rate, with 22 missed tackles and 16 errors and v the Raiders, a marginally better 57% completion rate with 26 missed tackles and 13 errors. Impossible to judge the Eels on their 66-12 demolition of the pathetic Tigers in rd 11 - 78% completion rate and 5 errors but v no opposition - while against the Bulldogs in a 20-20 draw they again completed 77% of their sets with just 5 mistakes. The Eels will attempt to run their big yet mobile forwards like the Hindmarsh brothers at the Eagles' halves of Brett Kimmorley and Ben Walker while also aiming to snipe around the ruck from quick play-the-balls thru outstanding rake Brad Drew. Kimmorley is the attacking kingpin for the Eagles but often doesn't have much go-forward to work with. While the home crowd, the fact that it is Eagles' hooker Geoff Toovey's 300th NRL match and the knowledge that the Eels can run hot and cold very quickly has given the hosts a small points start, I have to side with the difference in quality at less than a converted try.
PLAY PARRAMATTA EELS -3.5
AFL picks: Hawthorn -17.5, Brisbane pick 'em, Port Adelaide -20.5, Carlton -11.5.
GLTA
