If anyone remembers my plays from last year I bet mostly favorites who appear to be in a very safe spot to not burn cash. Betting favorites just because they are favorites is a quick way to burn cash in MLB so let's look for the softest spots we can find.
I'm back from Vegas where I booked a decent win for the trip so obviously anxious to keep that roll going. I'll use lines from my local casino as those are the lines I'm playing, YMMV.
There are a decent number of games that look to have rain out/rain delay as a real possibility so I'm not even looking over those games. If you see a good play in one of those point it out, but I hate when rain disrupts the rhythm of my starter.
LAD -182
Line is higher than I like. In fact, if your book offers -1 -124 I think that is safe as well. -182 is what I'm using for this posted play. Ru is 2-1 to start the season and allowing very few base runners as evidenced by his .98 WHIP. Those do include games against STL and SF who are towards the bottom of the league batting against lefty's, but guess who is worse against Lefty's than both of them? Yep, the Pirates. After a stint on the 10-day for a groin injury he took the L against MIL (top 10 against Lefty's) when the Dodgers offense took the day off.
Chris Archer is a guy I really want to like and root for, but he draws a tough matchup today against the Dodgers who's bats have come around. LAD is all of the sudden a top 5 team against RHP and Archer's outings this year include a win against CIN who didn't get the memo that the schedule started in April this year, a loss against SF where he certainly looked off and a ND against WAS where he did look good striking out 9.
All in, the Dodger bats are too good, the Pirates bats are too weak and I don't think Archer's best will be good enough even if Ru is only average.
ATL -175
We've got a good combination of poor road hitting and poor hitting vs LHP when it comes to Colorado. Posting only a .211 vs LHP and second only to SD with 92 K's vs LHP. That alone means I would never back them in this spot. Fried is off to a 3-0 start this year with a WHIP of 1.04 which means it's not just good luck, he isn't allowing a lot of baserunners and thus not a lot of runs.
ATL is much better hitting at home and decent enough to warrant a play here.
This is more of a fade against Colorado than anything, but I'm comfortable with that.
HOU -134
Truth be told, I was on Houston last night with Cole on the mound and still have no idea how I didn't cash that ticket. Yea, Cole is susceptible to the occasional long ball and he gave up 2 last night but that should not have been insurmountable for a Houston offense as powerful as it is. In any even, back on the train (pun intended) again tonight.
Houston is a top 3 team hitting against RHP and they get a guy who is more than hittable tonight in Kluber who is just not the Kluber of old. 2-2 this year with a 1.62 WHIP and an ERA over 5. He shows signs of coming back to form, but until that sinker gets some more bite he's getting hit hard.
Houston runs out McHugh who is pitching well enough and not allowing base runners with a WHIP of 1.06 and 28 strikeouts in his 5 starts. CLE is a bottom 3 team against RHP batting only .205. You kinda have to have a short memory when gambling and take emotion out of it, so despite the loss last night, I like this spot.
BAL/MIN OVER 9
I think it was on this very forum I saw the quote "Never ask a bad team to do something good for you" and I've always held to that. You just can't count on bad teams to be who they are on any given night and the total of 9 here looks too high when it includes a team like Baltimore, but hear me out.
Both pitchers going tonight suck and BAL can actually hit LHP and MIN can obviously mash RHP, couple that with the two gas cans on the mound tonight and the only thing I worry about is one of them getting hit so hard too early and getting pulled too quick to give up enough runs to get us to the total. I feel like either team can get to 9 alone. Cobb is on the mound for Baltimore and I think I could hit him. He did manage a respectable outing against a depleted NYY line up and then didn't go three innings against MIN last time out.
Perez for MIN has a couple wins, but only because his offense outscores his awfulness. A 1.77 WHIP means we will see baserunners for BAL, and if they string hits together at all we will get the 3 or so we need out of them to put this one over 9.
CWS -136
We get the better pitcher here against a team that just doesn't hit LHP. DET is a bottom 5 team against LHP and CWS is a top 10 team in the same category. It's close, but I like the price and will take my chances with Rodon vs Norris anytime.
SEA -175
Let me get this straight, I get a top 10 team hitting against RHP hitting against Shelby Miller and I don't have to lay 2-1? Thanks! Seriously, Miller's last outing was much better than most and that probably gives some hope that he'll be able to have a decent season, but come on, this is the same guy that averages 2 baserunners and inning last year and 1.5 an inning the year before that. He's not pitching against SF or MIA here, this is SEA, in Seattle.
Kikuchi isn't exactly Roger Clemens, but we shouldn't need him to be here. The total of only 8.5 gives me pause for concern that Vegas knows something here as TEX should score a few runs, but SEA should get the lion's share of that number by themselves, right>
Cliff Notes:
LAD -182 One unit to win .54 units
ATL -175 One unit to win .57 units
HOU -134 One unit to win .74 units
BAL/MIN OVER 9 -127 One unit to win .78 units
CWS -136 One unit to win .73 units
SEA -175 One unit to win .57 units
More plays than usual for a card where I toss out four games due to weather concerns and has hot as I ran in Vegas I'm likely due for a rough card sooner than later, but this is the process I use and will be on the above today.
I'm back from Vegas where I booked a decent win for the trip so obviously anxious to keep that roll going. I'll use lines from my local casino as those are the lines I'm playing, YMMV.
There are a decent number of games that look to have rain out/rain delay as a real possibility so I'm not even looking over those games. If you see a good play in one of those point it out, but I hate when rain disrupts the rhythm of my starter.
LAD -182
Line is higher than I like. In fact, if your book offers -1 -124 I think that is safe as well. -182 is what I'm using for this posted play. Ru is 2-1 to start the season and allowing very few base runners as evidenced by his .98 WHIP. Those do include games against STL and SF who are towards the bottom of the league batting against lefty's, but guess who is worse against Lefty's than both of them? Yep, the Pirates. After a stint on the 10-day for a groin injury he took the L against MIL (top 10 against Lefty's) when the Dodgers offense took the day off.
Chris Archer is a guy I really want to like and root for, but he draws a tough matchup today against the Dodgers who's bats have come around. LAD is all of the sudden a top 5 team against RHP and Archer's outings this year include a win against CIN who didn't get the memo that the schedule started in April this year, a loss against SF where he certainly looked off and a ND against WAS where he did look good striking out 9.
All in, the Dodger bats are too good, the Pirates bats are too weak and I don't think Archer's best will be good enough even if Ru is only average.
ATL -175
We've got a good combination of poor road hitting and poor hitting vs LHP when it comes to Colorado. Posting only a .211 vs LHP and second only to SD with 92 K's vs LHP. That alone means I would never back them in this spot. Fried is off to a 3-0 start this year with a WHIP of 1.04 which means it's not just good luck, he isn't allowing a lot of baserunners and thus not a lot of runs.
ATL is much better hitting at home and decent enough to warrant a play here.
This is more of a fade against Colorado than anything, but I'm comfortable with that.
HOU -134
Truth be told, I was on Houston last night with Cole on the mound and still have no idea how I didn't cash that ticket. Yea, Cole is susceptible to the occasional long ball and he gave up 2 last night but that should not have been insurmountable for a Houston offense as powerful as it is. In any even, back on the train (pun intended) again tonight.
Houston is a top 3 team hitting against RHP and they get a guy who is more than hittable tonight in Kluber who is just not the Kluber of old. 2-2 this year with a 1.62 WHIP and an ERA over 5. He shows signs of coming back to form, but until that sinker gets some more bite he's getting hit hard.
Houston runs out McHugh who is pitching well enough and not allowing base runners with a WHIP of 1.06 and 28 strikeouts in his 5 starts. CLE is a bottom 3 team against RHP batting only .205. You kinda have to have a short memory when gambling and take emotion out of it, so despite the loss last night, I like this spot.
BAL/MIN OVER 9
I think it was on this very forum I saw the quote "Never ask a bad team to do something good for you" and I've always held to that. You just can't count on bad teams to be who they are on any given night and the total of 9 here looks too high when it includes a team like Baltimore, but hear me out.
Both pitchers going tonight suck and BAL can actually hit LHP and MIN can obviously mash RHP, couple that with the two gas cans on the mound tonight and the only thing I worry about is one of them getting hit so hard too early and getting pulled too quick to give up enough runs to get us to the total. I feel like either team can get to 9 alone. Cobb is on the mound for Baltimore and I think I could hit him. He did manage a respectable outing against a depleted NYY line up and then didn't go three innings against MIN last time out.
Perez for MIN has a couple wins, but only because his offense outscores his awfulness. A 1.77 WHIP means we will see baserunners for BAL, and if they string hits together at all we will get the 3 or so we need out of them to put this one over 9.
CWS -136
We get the better pitcher here against a team that just doesn't hit LHP. DET is a bottom 5 team against LHP and CWS is a top 10 team in the same category. It's close, but I like the price and will take my chances with Rodon vs Norris anytime.
SEA -175
Let me get this straight, I get a top 10 team hitting against RHP hitting against Shelby Miller and I don't have to lay 2-1? Thanks! Seriously, Miller's last outing was much better than most and that probably gives some hope that he'll be able to have a decent season, but come on, this is the same guy that averages 2 baserunners and inning last year and 1.5 an inning the year before that. He's not pitching against SF or MIA here, this is SEA, in Seattle.
Kikuchi isn't exactly Roger Clemens, but we shouldn't need him to be here. The total of only 8.5 gives me pause for concern that Vegas knows something here as TEX should score a few runs, but SEA should get the lion's share of that number by themselves, right>
Cliff Notes:
LAD -182 One unit to win .54 units
ATL -175 One unit to win .57 units
HOU -134 One unit to win .74 units
BAL/MIN OVER 9 -127 One unit to win .78 units
CWS -136 One unit to win .73 units
SEA -175 One unit to win .57 units
More plays than usual for a card where I toss out four games due to weather concerns and has hot as I ran in Vegas I'm likely due for a rough card sooner than later, but this is the process I use and will be on the above today.
