Well folks, we're just a few hours away from another four-day holiday weekend and, as importantly, a little more than an hour away from the kickoff of another bowl game!!! :00hour
Bowl Season: 5-1-0
Michigan State +5 over BC......yeah, the Big 10 is on the board today and we're going to fade them, right? Not so fast. As a long time observer of this league, they do well when people are down on them and do poorly in bowls after seasons during which they were among the best. I'm going to test that history this year by being squarely behind the league's teams in the underdog roles.....or until somebody talks some sense in to me :142smilie
Anyway, I like Sparty here today, if for no other reason that they're the underdog, and underdogs have a tendency to howl like mad in the post Xmas December Bowl Games. MSU has not been blown out all season with a seven point loss on the road to OSU being the largest deficit they've lost by all season long.
Conventional wisdon says that MSU's top notch rushing attack will be stymied by BC's top notch run defense. But a closer look into the numbers reveal that BC will be far and away playing against one of the best rushing teams they've faced all year. Only one foe of BC this year (Ga Tech) finished in the top 49 of rushing offenses this season. The combined average ranking of rushing offense by BC's foes this year is 80. MSU, meanwhile, is a top-20 rushing offense with two major threats at tailback. This will be a big test for BC, especially considering the balance that MSU can bring to the table. Sure, Matt Ryan has been splendid this season, but consider some of the solid numbers Brian Hoyer has put up for Sparty. Did you know that Hoyer threw for a higher completion percentage, had a higher yards per attempt and a lower interception percentage than his Heisman counterpart on the other team today? Translation: MSU will do damage today on BC and hang with them point for point. Because of the Ringer/Calucrik duo and timely passing of Hoyer, expect MSU to control the clock and the pace of the game.
BC, meanwhile, has had fits and starts on offense despite the prescence of Matty Ice. There was a big blow to MSU by losing Saint-Dic to grades, but I still feel their DL will hold their own and even outplay at times BC's OL. Eric Baldwin had 17 TFLs, so there is more to the defensive front that Saint-Dic. Sure, his presence freed up Baldwin, but expect the combo of Brandon Long, who actually started over Saint-Dic early in the year, and Kellen Davis, the team's TE who will play both ways tonight, to be fresh, energetic and make plays.
Nobody is giving MSU a chance. I like the fact that they're coming in here playing the no respect card. I have been impressed with D'antonio this year. He made it a goal to return to a bowl game after a three-year absence and here they are. What really impressed me about Sparty this year is that after the killer loss to UM, they did not fold. We've seen that act out of MSU before. The fact they rebounded with wins over Purdue and Penn State tells me that a new culture is beginning to take hold up in East Lansing. This squad is every bit as talented as BC, and they'll hang in there up to the very end. In fact, I see them holding a fourth quarter lead. The ball will be in Matt Ryan's hand. Will he get BC the final score to win? Maybe, maybe not....but even if he gets that late score, it wont be enough for the cover. This game should be a shootout and it wont be decided until the very end. I'll take the points and run!
Good luck!!
Bowl Season: 5-1-0
Michigan State +5 over BC......yeah, the Big 10 is on the board today and we're going to fade them, right? Not so fast. As a long time observer of this league, they do well when people are down on them and do poorly in bowls after seasons during which they were among the best. I'm going to test that history this year by being squarely behind the league's teams in the underdog roles.....or until somebody talks some sense in to me :142smilie
Anyway, I like Sparty here today, if for no other reason that they're the underdog, and underdogs have a tendency to howl like mad in the post Xmas December Bowl Games. MSU has not been blown out all season with a seven point loss on the road to OSU being the largest deficit they've lost by all season long.
Conventional wisdon says that MSU's top notch rushing attack will be stymied by BC's top notch run defense. But a closer look into the numbers reveal that BC will be far and away playing against one of the best rushing teams they've faced all year. Only one foe of BC this year (Ga Tech) finished in the top 49 of rushing offenses this season. The combined average ranking of rushing offense by BC's foes this year is 80. MSU, meanwhile, is a top-20 rushing offense with two major threats at tailback. This will be a big test for BC, especially considering the balance that MSU can bring to the table. Sure, Matt Ryan has been splendid this season, but consider some of the solid numbers Brian Hoyer has put up for Sparty. Did you know that Hoyer threw for a higher completion percentage, had a higher yards per attempt and a lower interception percentage than his Heisman counterpart on the other team today? Translation: MSU will do damage today on BC and hang with them point for point. Because of the Ringer/Calucrik duo and timely passing of Hoyer, expect MSU to control the clock and the pace of the game.
BC, meanwhile, has had fits and starts on offense despite the prescence of Matty Ice. There was a big blow to MSU by losing Saint-Dic to grades, but I still feel their DL will hold their own and even outplay at times BC's OL. Eric Baldwin had 17 TFLs, so there is more to the defensive front that Saint-Dic. Sure, his presence freed up Baldwin, but expect the combo of Brandon Long, who actually started over Saint-Dic early in the year, and Kellen Davis, the team's TE who will play both ways tonight, to be fresh, energetic and make plays.
Nobody is giving MSU a chance. I like the fact that they're coming in here playing the no respect card. I have been impressed with D'antonio this year. He made it a goal to return to a bowl game after a three-year absence and here they are. What really impressed me about Sparty this year is that after the killer loss to UM, they did not fold. We've seen that act out of MSU before. The fact they rebounded with wins over Purdue and Penn State tells me that a new culture is beginning to take hold up in East Lansing. This squad is every bit as talented as BC, and they'll hang in there up to the very end. In fact, I see them holding a fourth quarter lead. The ball will be in Matt Ryan's hand. Will he get BC the final score to win? Maybe, maybe not....but even if he gets that late score, it wont be enough for the cover. This game should be a shootout and it wont be decided until the very end. I'll take the points and run!
Good luck!!
