Hey Right Side - i like your train of thought - much like mine - March historically is one of my best performing months - and I agree - think dog first - last 5 seasons i have made about 80% of my plays on dogs and only 20% on favorites in the NCAA tourney - and when it is all said and done i have cashed in every tourney!
The first thing people need to understand about winning in sports betting in the long run is to be a contrarian - think dog first - falling into the rut of betting faves consistently is a death trap...especially at times like tourney time - when you are on the side of the dog - you have 2 ways to win - dog wins outright or covers - faves give you only 1 way to win - they need to not only win but cover...when you bet primarily dogs - you take advantage of all the upsets - how many nights while ther tourney is going on do you watch the late night sportscenter and here - "so and so pulls off an amazing upset - who would have thought" - well this is the beauty of dogs - when you are on them - you get to take advantage of the upsets...and so many times the public gets sucked in on the big name schools and just can't see the big fave not covering - big mistake - I always look for a game where the dog should stay competitive and cover - because when Team A is a 12 point favorite to Team B in the tourney - well Team A just wants to win the game and advance - they aren't thinking "we need to win by 13 tonight"...
Just wanted to add these comments - as i still see lots of people playing mostly favorites night in and night out and then wondering why they are not winning - dogs won't cover all the time - but most of the time the teams w/ the value are the dogs...
Every year i have the same approach in March - go for the dogs - and when i doubt pass on the game...and also - take some shots on the moneyline - especially when you like a 1, 2, or 3 point dog - most of the time here the dog wins outright or fave wins by 4 or more...so take the +120, +125, +140 moneylines instead of taking the points and paying -110...and just because a team is a 7, 8, 9 point dog does not mean they can't be a live dog capable of winning & letting you cash in on a +300 to +400 moneyline...
My tourney theory: EXPECT THE UNEXPECTED! WHAT YOU THINK WILL HAPPEN, PROBABLY WON'T - mostly meaning you might see some good teams that you think "oh they will win and cover easily" - there are no easy covers in the tourney - each game will be hard fought - so look to take those points as an added bonus in most cases...i still play about 1 out of 5 plays as favorites - because yes there are spots i do like a fave - most of the time it's when they are only laying a few points - i don't like to lay a lot of points (like 7 is where i start to draw the line most of the time)...
Good luck to you RIGHT SIDE - i do believe you will be on the RIGHT SIDE most of the time w/ the approach you are taking - let's hope to cash several dog tickets during the tourney - and don't forget to take some ML dog shots when you see a live one!
-SAVE IT!
