Posting these as early as I can as tomorrow here is Easter Friday, when even the books take a day off...
Four Good Friday matchups, and, as an Easter treat, we have FOUR PLAYS for your consumption. Pig out and let's hope we don't draw an egg
NRL:
Season to date: 15-14 (51.72%)
Game 1) Melbourne Storm v Northern Eagles, Colonial Stadium, Melbourne, 18:05CST
Storm -5.5
You can virtually discount all that has gone before with the 3-5 ATS Storm, including their abysmal home form - 1-4 SU. Unsettled Kangaroos coach Chris Anderson has gone and in his place comes Mark "Muppet" Murray. In his first game in charge, Murray and his troops nearly pulled off the upset of the season as they lost 18-16 to the Broncos in Brisbane; only a last minute conversion miss costing them the draw. It appeared as if the change sparked life back into key forwards like Rodney Howe and Robbie Kearns. The Eagles scored a 38-22 win over the Tigers last Friday in an awful match and are 4-4 ATS but their leaky defence has ensured they have covered the Over 7 times in 8 outings. Despite having a 60/40 advantage in terms of possession, the Eagles still missed 28 tackles against the Tigers, who you could in no way describe as an adventurous outfit with attacking talent galore. The Storm will be keen to show the Colonial Stadium crowd that they are a new team under Murray, with the added incentive of proving to former halfback Brett Kimmorley - now at the Eagles - that they don't miss him with Matt Orford fitting in well and that he made a poor choice in his new side.
PLAY STORM -5.5
Game 2) Sydney Roosters v Brisbane Broncos, SFS, 19:05CST
Roosters pick 'em
Tremendous match anticipated here; a repeat of last season's Grand Final won by the Broncos. Both teams are 4-4 ATS - Roosters enter this match with a stirring come-from-behind win over the Sharks last weekend while the Broncos pipped the Storm. The Broncos were there usual efficient self - 55% possession, nearing a 75% completion rate and 17 missed tackles with 12 errors. The Roosters were less efficient but it's their game-breakers and motivation, thrown in with the Broncos away record - 1-3 ATS - that sways me the way of the home team. It's one of those "statement" games for the Roosters and look for skipper Brad Fittler to be more involved thru-out the 80 minutes than he is most matches. Bryan Fletcher's offloads will be another key, along with the inspirational form of utility Craig Wing and the pace of backs Anthony Minichello, Shannon Hegarty and Ryan Cross. If the Roosters are to break the outstanding Broncos defence, they will have to chance their arm but have the talent to accomplish it. As a pick 'em, I see them as value.
PLAY SYDNEY ROOSTERS PICK 'EM
Super 12:
Season to date: 16-6 (72.73%)
Game 1) Auckland Blues v Cats, Whangarei, 17:05CST
Blues +4.5
On the law of averages, you'd think the 0-6 ATS Blues would have to cover at some stage during the season. But not if you watched them last weekend - and for most of the competition. While the Sharks have to be given credit for their methodical, impressive dismantling of the Blues, it has to be tempered with the reality of just how shocking the home team was. Fears that the hastily-arranged coaching combination of Frank Oliver and John Kirwan lacked the skills to gel the fragile Blues have come to full fruition - they are without gameplan and chock full of errors. I thought last week they would respond to some stinging criticism but just folded further under the pressure. The Cats, on the other hand, dominated possession and territory v the Chiefs but still came up empty-handed against the superbly drilled home team. That gives us another reason to like the Cats here - coach Laurie Mains was furious that his side didn't pick up valuable road points and will have targeted this game as a "can't lose" for the Cats, who still aren't assured of a top-four place. No real home advantage for the Blues as they play in Whangarei for the first time. Worse news; the home team will be without fullback Orene Ai'i and first-five Carlos Spencer thru injury,leaving rookie No10 James Arlidge to assume the running of the backline and the goalkicking duties - and he hasn't even played a game of first-class rugby in his career. Yes, the Blues will break their duck at some stage and it's hard to go against a home dog in the Super 12. But I can't play them. Instead...
PLAY CATS -4.5
Game 2) ACT Brumbies v NSW Waratahs, Bruce Stadium, 19:05 CST
Brumbies -11.5
A lot of wood to lay for me, but I like it. The Brumbies will be fuming after their 34-19 defeat by the on-fire 'Canes in Wellington last Friday. They had a distinct edge in territory and possession but the 'Canes - esp now that they've hit their straps - are the worst possible team to turn the ball over too. The Brumbies did this often, with more forward passes and knock-ons than you'd normally see in an entire season from the Eddie Jones-coached side. Don't expect that to happen again for the home team, which is 2-1 ATS and 3-0 SU as a home chalk. They get huge bonuses tomorrow too with the return of winger/fullback Joe Roff and lock David Giffin from injury, giving the Brumbies as close to a full-strength side as they have had since season start. The 5-2 ATS Waratahs were rumbled over by the hot-and-cold Highlanders last Sat and are 1-2 ATS as a road dog. They were drilled in the forwards by both the Sharks and the Highlanders and are without key fullback and goalkicker Matthew Burke, and the feeling is their bubble has burst.
PLAY BRUMBIES -11.5
Any feedback/comments much appreciated.
GLTA
And Merry Easter in advance...
Four Good Friday matchups, and, as an Easter treat, we have FOUR PLAYS for your consumption. Pig out and let's hope we don't draw an egg
NRL:
Season to date: 15-14 (51.72%)
Game 1) Melbourne Storm v Northern Eagles, Colonial Stadium, Melbourne, 18:05CST
Storm -5.5
You can virtually discount all that has gone before with the 3-5 ATS Storm, including their abysmal home form - 1-4 SU. Unsettled Kangaroos coach Chris Anderson has gone and in his place comes Mark "Muppet" Murray. In his first game in charge, Murray and his troops nearly pulled off the upset of the season as they lost 18-16 to the Broncos in Brisbane; only a last minute conversion miss costing them the draw. It appeared as if the change sparked life back into key forwards like Rodney Howe and Robbie Kearns. The Eagles scored a 38-22 win over the Tigers last Friday in an awful match and are 4-4 ATS but their leaky defence has ensured they have covered the Over 7 times in 8 outings. Despite having a 60/40 advantage in terms of possession, the Eagles still missed 28 tackles against the Tigers, who you could in no way describe as an adventurous outfit with attacking talent galore. The Storm will be keen to show the Colonial Stadium crowd that they are a new team under Murray, with the added incentive of proving to former halfback Brett Kimmorley - now at the Eagles - that they don't miss him with Matt Orford fitting in well and that he made a poor choice in his new side.
PLAY STORM -5.5
Game 2) Sydney Roosters v Brisbane Broncos, SFS, 19:05CST
Roosters pick 'em
Tremendous match anticipated here; a repeat of last season's Grand Final won by the Broncos. Both teams are 4-4 ATS - Roosters enter this match with a stirring come-from-behind win over the Sharks last weekend while the Broncos pipped the Storm. The Broncos were there usual efficient self - 55% possession, nearing a 75% completion rate and 17 missed tackles with 12 errors. The Roosters were less efficient but it's their game-breakers and motivation, thrown in with the Broncos away record - 1-3 ATS - that sways me the way of the home team. It's one of those "statement" games for the Roosters and look for skipper Brad Fittler to be more involved thru-out the 80 minutes than he is most matches. Bryan Fletcher's offloads will be another key, along with the inspirational form of utility Craig Wing and the pace of backs Anthony Minichello, Shannon Hegarty and Ryan Cross. If the Roosters are to break the outstanding Broncos defence, they will have to chance their arm but have the talent to accomplish it. As a pick 'em, I see them as value.
PLAY SYDNEY ROOSTERS PICK 'EM
Super 12:
Season to date: 16-6 (72.73%)
Game 1) Auckland Blues v Cats, Whangarei, 17:05CST
Blues +4.5
On the law of averages, you'd think the 0-6 ATS Blues would have to cover at some stage during the season. But not if you watched them last weekend - and for most of the competition. While the Sharks have to be given credit for their methodical, impressive dismantling of the Blues, it has to be tempered with the reality of just how shocking the home team was. Fears that the hastily-arranged coaching combination of Frank Oliver and John Kirwan lacked the skills to gel the fragile Blues have come to full fruition - they are without gameplan and chock full of errors. I thought last week they would respond to some stinging criticism but just folded further under the pressure. The Cats, on the other hand, dominated possession and territory v the Chiefs but still came up empty-handed against the superbly drilled home team. That gives us another reason to like the Cats here - coach Laurie Mains was furious that his side didn't pick up valuable road points and will have targeted this game as a "can't lose" for the Cats, who still aren't assured of a top-four place. No real home advantage for the Blues as they play in Whangarei for the first time. Worse news; the home team will be without fullback Orene Ai'i and first-five Carlos Spencer thru injury,leaving rookie No10 James Arlidge to assume the running of the backline and the goalkicking duties - and he hasn't even played a game of first-class rugby in his career. Yes, the Blues will break their duck at some stage and it's hard to go against a home dog in the Super 12. But I can't play them. Instead...
PLAY CATS -4.5
Game 2) ACT Brumbies v NSW Waratahs, Bruce Stadium, 19:05 CST
Brumbies -11.5
A lot of wood to lay for me, but I like it. The Brumbies will be fuming after their 34-19 defeat by the on-fire 'Canes in Wellington last Friday. They had a distinct edge in territory and possession but the 'Canes - esp now that they've hit their straps - are the worst possible team to turn the ball over too. The Brumbies did this often, with more forward passes and knock-ons than you'd normally see in an entire season from the Eddie Jones-coached side. Don't expect that to happen again for the home team, which is 2-1 ATS and 3-0 SU as a home chalk. They get huge bonuses tomorrow too with the return of winger/fullback Joe Roff and lock David Giffin from injury, giving the Brumbies as close to a full-strength side as they have had since season start. The 5-2 ATS Waratahs were rumbled over by the hot-and-cold Highlanders last Sat and are 1-2 ATS as a road dog. They were drilled in the forwards by both the Sharks and the Highlanders and are without key fullback and goalkicker Matthew Burke, and the feeling is their bubble has burst.
PLAY BRUMBIES -11.5
Any feedback/comments much appreciated.
GLTA
And Merry Easter in advance...
to check F1 picks!
