Friday: Ivy and MAAC plays

superbook

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Tuesday: 4-0
Wednesday: 3-1-1
Thursday: 2-2


Here are my plays for Friday:


St. Peter's +12.5

Harvard +7 (-140) BIG

Penn -1.5 (-120) VERY BIG

Princeton +1


Cornell will probably beat Dartmouth in Ithaca; will they cover 5.5? I wouldn't bet on it.

gl
 
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bryanz

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nice work this week!!!

nice work this week!!!

Prin-1 Penn-3 Darth+5.5 Col-5.5 If you remember the 3 that we agreed on last fri all won.Made a mistake, I like Columbia not Harvard.GL
 
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superbook

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bryanz -- I'll take 3 out of 4 anytime!!!

Here's my thinking behind my Harvard play.


DATE & TIME: Friday, February 8th, 7:30 p.m. (et).

FACTS & STATS: Site: Levien Gym (3,400) -- New York, New York. Television: None. Home Record: Harvard 7-3, Columbia 5-0. Away Record: Harvard 3-4, Columbia 3-9. Neutral Record: Harvard 1-0, Columbia 2-1. Conference Record: Harvard 4-1, Columbia 3-3. Series Record: Columbia leads, 85-61.


GAME NOTES: The Columbia Lions try to win their second straight Ivy League game on Friday night when they host the Harvard Crimson at Levien Gym in the Big Apple. Columbia is coming off a stunning 54-53 victory over Pennsylvania last Saturday, as it has won three of its last four games. The Lions have been tough at home this year, winning all five of their contests at Levien Gym, and improved to 3-3 versus the conference with their most recent triumph. Harvard saw its modest two-game winning streak come to an end last weekend as it fell to Yale at home, 66-57. The Crimson suffered their first Ivy loss of the season in five tries, but the team has seen its share of problems on the road, losing four of its seven games at away venues. Columbia has historically controlled the series with Harvard, having won 85 of the 146 meetings on the hardwood. The Lions and Crimson split a pair of regular season meetings a year ago as each team recorded a victory on its home floor. The teams have split their regular season affairs in each of the last four seasons.

After dominating the first half of play in last Saturday's contest versus Yale, Harvard collapsed in the second stanza and was saddled with an ugly nine-point loss. The Crimson held a 38-22 advantage at the intermission, but went cold in the second half and were outscored, 44-19 over the final 20 minutes. Harvard shot just 40.4 percent from the floor for the game, including a mere 30.8 percent in the second half. The Crimson hit just 6-of-23 three- pointers and committed 18 turnovers in the affair. Guard Patrick Harvey led the way with 21 points and was 8-of-18 from the floor in the setback. Harvey is the go-to guy for the Crimson this season, scoring a team-leading 18.6 ppg. He knocks down 38.5 percent of his three-pointers and shoots 44.2 percent from the floor overall. There is some depth on the roster as five other Harvard players are averaging between 7.0 and 9.1 ppg. The Crimson score 65 ppg, while allowing 63.7 ppg to opposing teams.

Columbia pulled off a shocker last Saturday as it surprised quite a few folks with a one-point triumph over Ivy League heavyweight, Pennsylvania. The Lions overcame a three-point halftime deficit by outscoring the Quakers, 29-25, in the final frame. Columbia shot 46.3 percent from the floor and was 5-of-11 from three-point range in the victory. The Lions also sank their free throws, going 11-of-12 at the charity stripe, and won the battle on the boards, 26-22. Forward Craig Austen led the way in the huge win with 14 points despite going just 6-of-20 from the field. Austen is the catalyst for the Lions this year as he is the only player on the roster averaging in double figures with 16.3 ppg. He also dishes out 2.1 apg and collects 5.4 rpg, while shooting 44.6 percent from the floor, including 34.4 percent from downtown. Three other players are averaging between 8.0 and 9.2 ppg as well. Columbia scores just 56.5 ppg and allows 57 ppg to the opposition.

The Lions will need to get another big effort from the entire team in this affair, but Austen will be the go-to guy down the stretch. Look for Columbia to keep the Crimson in check in the paint, but do not expect either team to surpass 65 points in this affair.

Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Columbia 63, Harvard 55

Here's what's missing from this Sports Network write-up:

1. It wasn't just that Harvard's shooting went cold in the second half of last week's game vs Yale; Bulldogs Coach James Jones switched from a man-to-man to a zone which has given Harvard trouble all year. I'm sure Harvard has spent the week working on their play against the zone.

2. Harvard has two Ivy losses and they have yet to make the Penn-Princeton road trip. Unless they sweep Columbia and Cornell this weekend, the Crimson are effectively eliminated from the Ivy race. No look ahead for either team tonight, both play much weaker Ivy teams tomorrow.

3. Harvard's Pat Harvey is the best player in the Ivy right now; Brown's Hunt has better offensive numbers but Harvey plays better defense.

4. Harvard's 6-6 forward Sam Winter (9 ppg, 6 rpg) is much improved from last year, he's got a good jumper and some nice low post moves and is keeping Harvard in the game on the boads. In Harvard's game vs Penn last month he got the better of Penn's Ugonna Onyekwe.

5. Harvard has a decent bench with Graham Beatty, Jason Norman and Brady Merchant.

6. Harvard is mentally tougher than in past years, they won't fall apart on the road like past Crimson teams.

7. Harvard is 5-1-1 ATS.

And last but perhaps most importantly:

8. Columbia is a decent 5-3 ATS in their last 10 games (2 didn't have lines) but their 5 ATS wins were 3 as double digit dogs and 2 as favs vs Cornell (the worst team in the Ivy).

The Lions aren't used to being the favorite and they haven't even been able to cover smaller numbers as dogs against better Ivy teams like Brown and Yale.

9. Columbia's opponents have only scored an average of 45 ppg in their five games (big scorers Penn and Princeton were held to 53 and 49 respectively on the road). No way Columbia gets 63, they've averaged only 49 ppg in their last five. That means 5.5 is a ton to cover in a match-up of the teams with the two best defenses in the Ivy. Opponents shoot just 40.1 percent against Columbia; Harvard's opponents have made 41.3 percent of their shots.

10. The Crimson has defeated the Lions in every Friday night contest between the schools dating back to 1992-93.


Superbook's Predicted Outcome:

Harvard 51 Columbia 47
 
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superbook

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Adding:

Canisius +7

The home team has won 8 of L9 match-ups between these two teams.

Manhattan is the better team here, I just don't think they can cover 7 on the road. In their L10 games, the Jaspers are 2-2 ATS on the road. In these four road games, the greatest margin was five points (69-64 win at Siena and 75-70 loss at Iona).

This year Canisius seems to know how to keep their games close at home and Manhattan doesn't know how to pull away.
 

Felonious Monk

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superbook

superbook

I have the St. Pete line @ +12.5 so I'm guessing that the line is moving up in Niagra's favor for a big win.

Is there a reason for this or is someone hurt that we should know of?

Just wondering. Thanks.
 

superbook

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Mr. Monk --

No injuries, don't worry.

I just went to put in my play on St. Peter's and was surprised to see that Camelot had the line at 12.5 now (I changed the number in my original post to reflect the number that I got for my own bet).

Vegas still has the line at 11 (see scoresandodds).

But the offshore books move their numbers depending on how the bets are coming in. More money on Niagara moves their lines up. And it doesn't take a lot of money on one side to push the offshore lines up, just a real imbalance. Which tells you most of the offshore money is on Niagara.

Most of the offshore books are now at 12 or 12.5.

Keep your eye on the Vegas line, that's the real number.

Here's the numbers I like:

- Niagara has won the L5 meetings, none by more than 7.

- Niagara is 2-7 ATS at home while St. P's is 6-2-2 ATS away

- St. Peter's has covered in 5 of their last 6; all five of these covers were in games on the road where they were getting 8 to 19.5 points. The one game they didn't cover in the L6 was at home.
 
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superbook

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Here's todays card from a pro capper posted on another site:

Ivy League dominates the Friday slate:


7 Units Princeton(+1) Won 8 straight meetings and have only one shot to make the dance by winning the conferencen which although I don't think they will, I do think it keeps them from looking past a team that they have owned.

7 Units Penn(-2) Must win game here for the Quakers and Yale has been Schizo all season pulling off big wins over Clemson etc and losing to McCalester. A focused Penn club gets the bacon.

5 Units Dartmouth(+6)(-120) Sorry game here but value in the dog as they have had Cornell's number and have held them to 36% or less in each of the last 3 meetings from the floor. I will take a team catching points with 8 wins against a club that is 3-16 all day long especially in this conference that has only 2 teams with winning ATS marks at home in conference play(Harvard and Columbia).

5 Units Harvard(+6)(-120) Columbia has 3 conference wins including a 1 point upset win over Penn last time out, but the other 2 were against lowly Cornell and Harvard has played tough with the upper echelon of the conference and should get there.

5 Units Memphis Over(146.5) The Tigers and Blazers seem to get up and down the floor when they meet and a game in the high 70's would be no surprise.


;)
 

superbook

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3-2 on posted plays

Lost on Penn and St. Peter's, wins on Harvard, Princeton and Cansius.

My personal bankroll had a nice night with a win on Dartmouth ML and a Big play on Harvard.

Superbook's Predicted Outcome:

Harvard 51 Columbia 47

Actual score: Harvard 55 Columbia 52
 
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