YTD NBA: 4-0
I'm really liking today's card. So many games, I had trouble cutting it down to a reasonable number of plays...but here goes...
*BEST BET* Toronto ML +125 @ Boston
Tor/Bost Under 193?
There are so many reasons I like this game. Boston has not played a quality team in a long time (Indiana is the lone possible exception). Celtics have also been playing against a lot of the worst defensive teams in the league. Their last 7 straight games have been against teams with Bottom-10 defences (according to my system). Of late, even though Toronto has lost, their defense has really stepped it up, to the point that I now have Tor's defence rated #6. Their recent losses have come to good teams, and this is a much-needed soft spot. Coming off B2B losses, and with Philly on the horizon as their next opponent, this looks like a logical spot for a Raptors win.
In addition, Boston's offensive numbers are inflated I believe because of all the soft D they've been facing. Toronto has not allowed a team to score 100 pts in 9 straight games, and I would be shocked if Boston hit triple digits here. With Toronto's recent scoring difficulties I can't figure why the total is in the 193 range, except for the fact that Toronto is usually not regarded as a strong defensive team, and ON PAPER it looks like Boston can put up big numbers. In this situation I don't think they can, so I will bet both the Raptors and the Under here...with the Raptors being the stronger play.
Concerns:
*Toronto played last night + traveled, may be tired; Boston is rested.
*Hakeem Olajuwon did not play at all in the second half last night, and I can't find any info on him today; wondering if he's injured. Not overly concerned about this though.
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*BEST BET* Orlando -5 @ Charlotte
Charlotte's 5-6 record is very deceptive. The teams they have beaten: Cleveland, NY, Chicago, Miami, Washington - not a good team in the bunch. Teams they have lost to: NJ, Dallas, San Antonio, Philly, Portland, and Dallas again. All good teams - and every one of those losses was by double digits. Charlotte is 2-9 ATS this year.
I don't think much of the Hornets, and I don't think they are anywhere close to being in Orlando's league. Will give the 5 pts here.
Concerns:
*Possible letdown for Orlando after their convincing victory in their rematch with Minnesota. Orlando did have one dud road game against an inferior team (Utah). Other than that, I don't see a reason to believe in Charlotte yet.
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Detroit -2 @ Atlanta
Stackhouse is probable now, so this is a play. Not as strong on this as the others, I get kind of an iffy-feeling about it. But Detroit has been playing some really solid ball of late, and has not coughed up a game to a below-.500 team yet. After winning huge in the early going, the recent games have been closer....but they've also been playing much tougher competition. They haven't faced a team this weak in the past 5 games.
Concerns:
*Atlanta has put up some really good numbers at home this year, with a couple of large wins. 3-1 SU & ATS @ home. However I don't think they've been tested by a team like this yet @ home.
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LA Clippers +6 @ Utah
I'll start with my concerns on this one:
*Nagging feeling Utah can't really be this bad, and this would be a good spot for them to get on track.
*Clippers played a tough game last night, then traveled
*Clippers have had it pretty good thus far, playing almost their whole schedule at home. 9 of their past 10 games have been at home, and this will only be their 4th road game of the year.
I'll still take my chances with the Clips, for the following reason. LA is coming off four games in a row of playing against teams with Top 6 defences in the league (on my system), and now play a team with a Bottom 10 defence. In addition, Utah is coming off playing a string of teams with mostly mediocre offenses, and now plays the #4-rated offense of the Clippers. Those two factors should add up to the Clippers scoring with relative ease. Add that to the fact that LA has beaten every sub-.500 team they've played this year, and it's a bet. (Portland was above .500 when the Clips lost to them).
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Recap:
Toronto ML +125
Toronto Under 193?
Orlando -5
Detroit -2
LA Clippers +6
I'm really liking today's card. So many games, I had trouble cutting it down to a reasonable number of plays...but here goes...
*BEST BET* Toronto ML +125 @ Boston
Tor/Bost Under 193?
There are so many reasons I like this game. Boston has not played a quality team in a long time (Indiana is the lone possible exception). Celtics have also been playing against a lot of the worst defensive teams in the league. Their last 7 straight games have been against teams with Bottom-10 defences (according to my system). Of late, even though Toronto has lost, their defense has really stepped it up, to the point that I now have Tor's defence rated #6. Their recent losses have come to good teams, and this is a much-needed soft spot. Coming off B2B losses, and with Philly on the horizon as their next opponent, this looks like a logical spot for a Raptors win.
In addition, Boston's offensive numbers are inflated I believe because of all the soft D they've been facing. Toronto has not allowed a team to score 100 pts in 9 straight games, and I would be shocked if Boston hit triple digits here. With Toronto's recent scoring difficulties I can't figure why the total is in the 193 range, except for the fact that Toronto is usually not regarded as a strong defensive team, and ON PAPER it looks like Boston can put up big numbers. In this situation I don't think they can, so I will bet both the Raptors and the Under here...with the Raptors being the stronger play.
Concerns:
*Toronto played last night + traveled, may be tired; Boston is rested.
*Hakeem Olajuwon did not play at all in the second half last night, and I can't find any info on him today; wondering if he's injured. Not overly concerned about this though.
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*BEST BET* Orlando -5 @ Charlotte
Charlotte's 5-6 record is very deceptive. The teams they have beaten: Cleveland, NY, Chicago, Miami, Washington - not a good team in the bunch. Teams they have lost to: NJ, Dallas, San Antonio, Philly, Portland, and Dallas again. All good teams - and every one of those losses was by double digits. Charlotte is 2-9 ATS this year.
I don't think much of the Hornets, and I don't think they are anywhere close to being in Orlando's league. Will give the 5 pts here.
Concerns:
*Possible letdown for Orlando after their convincing victory in their rematch with Minnesota. Orlando did have one dud road game against an inferior team (Utah). Other than that, I don't see a reason to believe in Charlotte yet.
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Detroit -2 @ Atlanta
Stackhouse is probable now, so this is a play. Not as strong on this as the others, I get kind of an iffy-feeling about it. But Detroit has been playing some really solid ball of late, and has not coughed up a game to a below-.500 team yet. After winning huge in the early going, the recent games have been closer....but they've also been playing much tougher competition. They haven't faced a team this weak in the past 5 games.
Concerns:
*Atlanta has put up some really good numbers at home this year, with a couple of large wins. 3-1 SU & ATS @ home. However I don't think they've been tested by a team like this yet @ home.
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LA Clippers +6 @ Utah
I'll start with my concerns on this one:
*Nagging feeling Utah can't really be this bad, and this would be a good spot for them to get on track.
*Clippers played a tough game last night, then traveled
*Clippers have had it pretty good thus far, playing almost their whole schedule at home. 9 of their past 10 games have been at home, and this will only be their 4th road game of the year.
I'll still take my chances with the Clips, for the following reason. LA is coming off four games in a row of playing against teams with Top 6 defences in the league (on my system), and now play a team with a Bottom 10 defence. In addition, Utah is coming off playing a string of teams with mostly mediocre offenses, and now plays the #4-rated offense of the Clippers. Those two factors should add up to the Clippers scoring with relative ease. Add that to the fact that LA has beaten every sub-.500 team they've played this year, and it's a bet. (Portland was above .500 when the Clips lost to them).
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Recap:
Toronto ML +125
Toronto Under 193?
Orlando -5
Detroit -2
LA Clippers +6
