friday ncaa hoops >>>

loophole

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Jul 14, 1999
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down one game yesterday. card was really a mix of pearls and stinkers, mainly because i was very pressed for time yesterday and didn't get a chance to fully cap some of the games. really feel that a more thorough process would hae weeded out northwestern and portland state. in any event, plenty of time today so no excuses will be available.


just a moment for some tourney capping thoughts. i'm a real believer in the value of the bye for the higher seeded team. imo you really saw the value of this factor in the richmond and notre dame wins last night. they way i play it, if i can find a higher seed with a bye, playing in good form, laying a decent number - no more than six or so - and perceive that no adjustment in the line has been made for the bye, i'll more than likely be a player. the deeper the tourney goes, most likely the more i'll bet on the bye team in this setup. i believe we'll find plenty of good opportunities with this scenario.


looks like there's a lot of interest in the va/ncsu matchup today so i'll go ahead and get that game up now.


nc state pk: sendek has done a good job, even in the off years, of having his team ready for the acc tourney. herb has only one first round loss since coming to raleigh, and the wolfpack has won five of their last six first round games, mostly against higher seeds. pack is also 10-2 vs the hoos in the tournament, mainly because, at 19-41, virginia has one of the worst tournament records in the acc. cavs have lost their last six first round game, and their current seven game tourney losing streak is the third longest in acc history. cavs show no indication that this year will be any different, losers of 8 of their last 10, 1-9 ats in that span. without the miracle home win over the dukies they would be dead and buried. wahoo defense has been porous of late to say the least - last five allowing 87 ppg, 56% fg, 41.5% 3 pt, -5.8 rpg. it's hard to step up when you get use to this kind of play. in contrast, sendek's teams almost always have been able to raise their level of play for the tourney. pack is this homer's choice today.


back later with the rest.
 
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kgar2121

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I hope youre right

I hope youre right

But it's awful tough to beat a team three times in one year in the ACC. Don't get me wrong, I'm rolling with the Pack today, but it's making me nervous. Maybe I better go to work til gametime....ya know, to get my mind off it!! Good Luck today!
 

loophole

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fret not kgar, i really do think the pack will pull through today. to tell you the truth, i never have put a lot of faith in the old saw about beating a team three times in a season, but rather feel that every matchup needs to be judged by the factors currently in play. pull for that wolfpack today!
 

giantfandave

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loophole,

nice writeup, i usually agree with you. not that i disagee with you this time, but nc st is already going to the dance with a 20-9 overall and a 9-7 conf record. while virginia is definately in need of a win with a 17-10 overall and 7-9 conf record, and sitting on that big fat bubble. to close to call.

good luck

dave
 

loophole

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i hear you giantfandave; however, my experience has been that a "must win" situation is as much an impediment as it is a motivator. my approach puts more weight on current form.


here are some afternoon plays that that are at least partially based on the bye scenario mentioned above:

wisc pk
ok st -1-
ga -5
ala -5


gotta run now. back later this afternoon. gl
 

crib_19

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Loop...nice thoughts on NC St.--i'm w/ you there..
I also like Wisky...need your thougts on two other games..1) Tenn... i like your higher seed theory, BUT, man I think tenn. is playing decent and w/ a purpose..I think they have talent too!
any thought's??
2)...On your three times in a season theory..I really Xavier..They seem to an awkward match-up for the Flyers..thoughts?
Crib_19
 

loophole

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crib_19, nothing against the vols, i like the team too but losing slay was huge for them. haven't run the numbers but i'll bet they're averaging 6-8 ppg less since he went out. bama was a better offensive team than tenn with slay, more so without him. that means to compete vols will have to step it up on defense, and that's just tough to do back-to-back this time of year. i've read some of the current debate here on this subject and both sides have their arguments. but at this point in the season, you're already a little leg weary, more than likely something's hurting somewhere, and it's just tougher to go back-to-back and put out the whole game. i'd love to see some of the other former players out there offer up their take on this subject. i'll wager most will agree with what i'm saying. working on this premise, i look for games where the line varies little, if any, from the line generated by pure power numbers, usually because the dog has a loyal betting bloc supporting them. when i see a solid team with no line adjustment for the back-to-back factor, i circle them. no big negatives turn up and they're a play. that's the theory, we'll see how it plays out.
 

loophole

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here's the plays for tonight, not much to say as there's no real surprises:


miss st +9
rich -3-
mon st -8
utah -2


gl to all.
 

cooz3

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you are a good capper....i'm new to the forum but please tell me the logic behind this line .... cal santa barb/cal irvine(-1,128.5)

cal irvine won both games this year...81-70(151) and 71-67(138) ..i realize defense is the key in these conf. games but that number seems to be way off

also look at this line for an over under....fresno/tulsa(149)
2 games this year 86-85(171) and 78-63(161)

fatigue is a factor but by that much? your'e input greatly appreciated
 
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