on these SU tonight:
08:05 PM NHL [2] Nashville Predators -121
09:05 PM NHL [3] TOTAL o5.5 +100 (Edmonton Oilers vrs Calgary Flames)
09:05 PM NHL [4] Calgary Flames -142
10:55 PM NHL [6] Los Angeles Kings -145
10:55 PM NHL [6] TOTAL u5+120 (Philadelphia Flyers vrs Los Angeles Kings)
NHL REGULAR SEASON RECORD: 4-7-1 / PRESEASON RECORD: 9-2, +5.92 units (flat bet, risking 1 unit per pick)
Tonight's WTF parlay:
1 unit bet pays 166 ....betdsi line
10:15 PM CFB [112] BYU -7-110
10:00 PM CFB [282] B.C. Lions -5-110
08:05 PM MLB [901] TOTAL o7.5 -105 (Toronto Blue Jays vrs Cleveland Indians) ( M Estrada - R / C Kluber - R )
09:05 PM NHL [3] TOTAL o5.5 +100 (Edmonton Oilers vrs Calgary Flames)
10:55 PM NHL [6] Los Angeles Kings -145
09:05 PM NBA [507] TOTAL o214-110 (Golden State Warriors vrs Denver Nuggets)
10:05 PM NBA [509] Dallas Mavericks -1-115
09:00 PM NBA [651] Minnesota Lynx +1-105
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :spotting: :00hour:em71: :drinky: :mj06:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
I am taking the Flames in this one. It is not easy to sweep a home and home, and this is the Flames home opener, and I think they come up big in this contest. Elliot struggled in the loss to the Oilers Wednesday night, but he is a much better goalie then what we saw, and if he made a few big saves in that one Calgary could have made it very close game. The Flames had to kill six penalties and I do not see them in the box as much in this one, and I am confident they can take their home opener against an Oilers team that has a hard time winning games in Calgary.
OILERS VS. FLAMES
PLAY: FLAMES -128
It?s the back end of a home and home set to start the season as Calgary plays host to Edmonton tonight. The Oilers were 7-4 winners on Wednesday evening, but I expect the Flames to rebound this evening.
If you watched the season opener between these two teams, you?ll likely agree with me when I offer that this is game Calgary could and probably should have won. They enjoyed a territorial edge most of the evening, and they even managed to score two shorthanded goals during the second period to temporarily tie things at 3-3.
The big problem for Calgary in the opener was twofold. First, Brian Elliot was absolutely awful. Elliot is off a tremendous 2015-16 campaign, but his first game as a Flame was a disaster. The man they call Moose needs to be much better tonight.
The other issue was on defense, as new coach Glen Gulutzan broke up what is the best Flames blueline pairing and let?s just say it didn?t work out. Look for the Giordano-Brodie combo to be back together on defense tonight.
I?m certainly not going to draw any conclusions from just one game, and I?ll maintain Calgary is a team with a chance to climb some rungs this season. Edmonton has the amazing Connor McDavid, and there is some offensive talent on the team. But I still believe the Oilers are too porous defensively and in the cage to be a playoff contender.
The home team will definitely be out for revenge this evening, and off what I saw on Wednesday evening, I believe they can outplay the Oilers again tonight. Hopefully, there will be some tightening up defensively and Elliot will not do another impression of a sieve. The price is reasonable enough, so I?ll recommend the Flames on the money line tonight.
Blue Jays/Indians Over 7.5
The Blue Jays bats have been on fire these playoffs and just like last year this team has a chance to get to the World Series, but as the playoffs get deeper hot hitting teams at some point have to win with pitching too. Cleveland has been so impressive in the bottom of their order this postseason that no out is an easy out. Toronto might beat teams with the long ball, but it?s going to be very tough to get 3 outs each inning against this Indians lineup. I think both teams put up a good amount of runs today.
Toronto Blue Jays +125
The Indians will have Corey Kluber toeing the rubber tonight at Progressive Field and he is only 1-3 with an ugly 5.34 ERA in his five career starts against the Blue Jays. Kluber has particularly struggled in recent meetings with 11 earned runs allowed in 15 innings over his last 3 starts against Toronto. The Blue Jays will counter with Marco Estrada and Toronto has gone 2-0 in his two career starts against the Tribe. Estrada has given up only 10 hits in 12 innings over his two starts against the Indians. The Blue Jays not only have the starting pitching edge here, they also have an edge in terms of recent playoff experience. For Cleveland, it has been awhile and they will now be tested after their sweep of the slumping Red Sox in the ALDS. Keep in mind, Boston ended up losing 8 of their last 9 games to finish their season and that means too much weight should not be put into that Cleveland sweep. The Blue Jays, however, knocked off the Rangers who were 20-11 through September 30th and were arguably the most consistent top team throughout the regular season. With the pitching edge and the line value on the underdog, we?ll grab the roadie in this one. Bet the BLUE JAYS on the money line in Game 1 of the ALCS Friday!
Mississippi St / BYU Over 58
The value here is on the OVER, as I see these two teams easily combining for 60+ points. Mississippi State?s offense isn?t as bad as it looked against Auburn last week. At the same time, BYU?s defense isn?t as strong as they looked in their win over the Spartans.
Auburn holding the Bulldogs to just 14 points shouldn?t have come as a big surprise. The most points the Tigers have allowed all season is 29 points and that was against Texas A&M. They held Clemson to just 19 points and LSU to only 13.
The key here is that Miss State runs a very similar spread offense to that of Toledo and West Virginia. Two teams that put up some big numbers on the Cougars. The Mountaineers put up 35 points and 481 yards of offense, while the Rockets put up 53 points and 692 yards.
BYU?s defense really benefited from Michigan State?s lack of a passing attack. The Spartans weren?t able to take advantage of a weak Cougars secondary. BYU comes into this game ranked 109th in the country against the pass, giving up 278.7 ypg. Michigan State refused to try an take advantage of this, attempting just 21 passes.
Mississippi State quarterback Nick Fitzgerald isn?t great, but I?m confident they come out throwing. Just two games ago, Fitzgerald put up 305 yards and 3 scores on UMass. It?s also important to note he?s a threat to run the ball. He?s rushed for 100+ yards twice this season and is averaging 6.1 yards/carry.
You also have to factor in that BYU?s defense might not be as locked in as it was last week. Not only are they coming off a huge road win, but they got another big road game on deck. The Cougars go to Boise State next Thursday. The Broncos are No. 15 in the country and a perfect 5-0 going into Week 7.
On the flip side of all this, I think BYU?s offense will make life miserable for the Bulldogs defense. Mississippi State?s defensive numbers aren?t as good as they look, due to who they have played. Auburn?s the best offense they have played and they aren?t great. Keep in mind the Tigers fumbled on the first 3 possessions of the 2nd half last week or they would have had 50+ points.
You also have to factor in that is a tough spot for the Bulldogs defense. They don?t travel west often and the thin air of Utah takes a lot out of you. I just don?t see Mississippi State?s defense playing well here.
San Diego State -17
I have no problem laying this big number on the road with the Aztecs against a bad Fresno State team. You have to pick your spots taking road favorites in these weekday games and this is one I really like. I just don't see the Bulldogs' fans getting up for this game. Their team is 1-5 and has shown no signs of turning this thing around. This is also a great matchup for San Diego State. The Aztecs have the No. 22 ranked rushing offense in the country, averaging 236.8 ypg. A big part of that is star running back Donnel Pumphrey, who has already rushed for 891 yards. Pumphrey and the Aztecs will be facing a Bulldogs defense that ranks a miserable 126th against the run, allowing 272.0 ypg. On the flip side of things, San Diego State's defense is ranked 15th in the country in total defense and will be facing a Fresno State offense that ranks a mere 96th. Keep in mind the Aztecs were embarrassed in their last road game, losing 24-42 as a 19.5-point favorite at South Alabama. That should have them 100% locked in on not only winning this game but doing so in blowout fashion.
B.C. LIONS -5 over Winnipeg
The Blue Bombers were lucky to escape Week 16 with a 37-35 home win over the Lions. That score is very misleading, as Winnipeg was the beneficiary of a review blunder on a clear Andrew Harris fumble deep in their own territory late in the game. The Bombers jumped out to a big early 24-3 lead early in the second quarter and then hit the wall, as the Lions dominated the play the rest of the way. The Bombers were very average offensively in game one of this home and home and now they have to head out to B.C. Place to face a vastly superior opponent that is in a foul mood. The Lions foul mood stems from the fact that they feel they got cheated last week and that?s because they did.
B.C. only has itself to blame for blowing last week?s game in Winnipeg. The Lions shot themselves in the foot late in the fourth quarter with a chance to win it and that was before the blown fumble call. On a crucial 3rd and 1, B.C. chose a sweep play instead of running straight ahead in a league where the defensive line must play a yard off the ball. Jonathan Jennings threw for 422 yards but his two interceptions outweighed an otherwise impressive aerial attack.
It?s hard to beat a team two weeks in a row, especially when that team is superior, thus the Bombers are really behind the eight ball here. B.C. Place is a tough place to play under normal circumstances but this one is anything but. While Winnipeg has been on a nice run since Matt Nichols took over, we?re not ready to back them in a tough road game like this. These teams are tied for second in the West Division but the Lions have a game in hand. If B.C. wins here, they will very likely host the West Semi-Final, a much better scenario than having to travel back to Winnipeg in November. Many of Winnipeg?s victories this year were Houdini acts including last week?s win and now the Bombers are getting a bit too much credit for taking down a B.C. team that was sleeping in the first quarter. We promise they won?t be sleeping in this one. Instead, the Lions have a score to settle to correct a wrong and the Bombers will play the price. This one is high on our recommendation list.
Saturday
Ohio State at Wisconsin
Play: Ohio State 10
The Wisconsin Badgers return to the gridiron off a much-needed bye week. The offense was exposed in a big way in their 14-7 loss to Michigan; 159 total yards for 3.0 yards per play. Quarterback Alex Hornibrook completed just 9-of-25 passes for 88 yards with one touchdown and three interceptions. The no. 2 ranked Ohio State Buckeyes are coming off a non-covering 38-17 victory over Indiana. It was by OSU standards a flat performance after beating Rutgers 58-0. For the first time all season, the offense struggled as the Hoosiers held the Buckeyes to a season-low 383 yards. The storyline was the defense as Indiana managed only 281 yards and coughed up the ball twice.
Despite a poor offensive showing last week, the Buckeyes will have a significant edge this weekend. The offense has generated 28 plays of 20 yards or more and 12 plays over 30 yards this season. The Badgers meanwhile are one of the least explosive teams in the Big Ten with only six plays all season of more than 30 yards and none beyond 50. The ability to pick up big chunks of yards is paramount in a game projected to be low scoring and Wisconsin just doesn?t have much of any ?big play? type players. And while Wisconsin?s defense has been up to the task this season (291.4 ypg allowed), Ohio State?s has been just as potent. The Buckeyes not only dominated four inferior foes but put the clamps on Oklahoma in Norman as the Sooners barely topped the 400 yard mark. Note that Oklahoma hung 52 and 45, respectively, against TCU and Texas following that home loss to Ohio State.
Ohio State has been very successful away from Columbus under head coach Urban Meyer: 19-0 SU and 8-4 ATS as road favorites. Wisconsin?s defense has proven capable of winning (vs. LSU, vs. Michigan State) and covering (vs. Michigan) pointspreads but this is the first situation where the Badgers will be forced to face a potent, up-tempo attack. They?ll put up resistance but I don?t trust the offense to keep pace. Lay the chalk.
Alabama vs. Tennessee
Play: Over 57
Teddy has dominated the NFL over the past two seasons: hitting 58% YTD on the heels of last year's epic 65% campaign. And he's riding a 62% college football hot streak into the weekend; steady, consistent profits! Don?t miss a single winner all weekend long!
The Tennessee defense is in a world of hurt right now, terrible news as they take on the Alabama Crimson Tide on Saturday. The Vols stop unit has, quite simply, been gutted with key injuries. They?ve lost Cameron Sutton, Jalen Reeves-Maybin and Cortez McDowell from their secondary; Quar?te Sapp and Darrin Kirkland from their linebacking corps and Danny O?Brien from the defensive line. Sutton, Sapp and O?Brien have all been lost to season ending injuries, losing top playmakers from all three defensive units.
Of that group, only McDowell has a chance to play this week, and even that?s very ?iffy?. No surprise, then, that the Vols surrendered ten plays of 20 yards or more in their double overtime loss at Texas A&M last Saturday. And, after that wild A&M on the heels of the wild Georgia game and the wild Florida game; a Vols defense that hasn?t had a bye yet certainly could use one, a gassed unit right now!
And that?s VERY bad news against the Alabama offense. The Crimson Tide aren?t stodgy this year ? they?ve been slinging the ball around, with the deepest receiving corps of the Nick Saban era; a corps so deep that they?ve struggled to get everybody involved in the passing game. Saban?s quote:
"This is a good problem to have. Last year we really kind of didn't have the depth at receiver. It was really concerning in terms of if we lost another player it would have really affected our team. So we would like to have six receivers at least that we feel can go out there and play winning football for us."
Alabama hasn?t had a mobile QB in the past, but this year, Jalen Hurts has been their third leading rusher. Against Arkansas last week, ?Bama averaged ten yards per snap. Three different running backs and four different pass catchers had single play big gainers of 20 yards or more. This just might be the best Alabama offense of the Nick Saban era, a scary thought for Tennessee?s banged up defense.
But Tennessee has performed admirably facing adversity all season; an offense with tremendous grit. That offense has produced 90 points in the second half against the Gators, Bulldogs and Aggies over the past three weeks, with Josh Dobbs throwing for 1400 yards and 14 TD?s already. In two previous road games, ?Bama allowed 73 points and more than 800 passing yards at Arkansas and Ole Miss. Expect offensive fireworks!
Ohio St. -10.5
Ohio State is going for its 20th straight true road game win, which is the longest active streak in the nation. It's an impressive feat and I see it holding up against Wisconsin.
The Badgers are well-coached, had a bye last week and are strong again defensively. I greatly respect their home field, too. But their offense is too weak to keep up with the Buckeyes. Alex Hornibrook is another in a long line of below average Wisconsin quarterbacks. The Badgers have had only one outstanding quarterback during the last 50 years and that was Russell Wilson, and he only played one year for Wisconsin.
Wisconsin, though, has had many great running backs. The Badgers' ground attack isn't up to previous standards this year, however. Corey Clement has failed to carry the Badgers' tradition of Heisman Trophy caliber tailbacks. Michigan held the Badgers to 2.5 yards per attempt on the ground in winning, 14-7, two weeks ago. Ohio State's defense is even better holding opponents to 10.8 points per game. The Buckeyes have yet to allow a touchdown on the ground.
The line should be higher as in my view it's still not fully reflecting the class difference between these two teams. Ohio State doesn't just win, but dominates winning by an average of 43 points. The Buckeyes may have been caught looking ahead to this challenge because they only defeated Indiana by 21 points last week in their worst performance. And Indiana has been decent this year.
Things could get ugly for the Badgers, who have no backdoor capability with their lack of a passing attack as Ohio State is averaging two interceptions per game. The Buckeyes have far more talent at the skill positions especially at quarterback with J.T. Barrett.
The Buckeyes also have owned this series recently covering all but one of the last eight games.
08:05 PM NHL [2] Nashville Predators -121
09:05 PM NHL [3] TOTAL o5.5 +100 (Edmonton Oilers vrs Calgary Flames)
09:05 PM NHL [4] Calgary Flames -142
10:55 PM NHL [6] Los Angeles Kings -145
10:55 PM NHL [6] TOTAL u5+120 (Philadelphia Flyers vrs Los Angeles Kings)
NHL REGULAR SEASON RECORD: 4-7-1 / PRESEASON RECORD: 9-2, +5.92 units (flat bet, risking 1 unit per pick)
Tonight's WTF parlay:
1 unit bet pays 166 ....betdsi line
10:15 PM CFB [112] BYU -7-110
10:00 PM CFB [282] B.C. Lions -5-110
08:05 PM MLB [901] TOTAL o7.5 -105 (Toronto Blue Jays vrs Cleveland Indians) ( M Estrada - R / C Kluber - R )
09:05 PM NHL [3] TOTAL o5.5 +100 (Edmonton Oilers vrs Calgary Flames)
10:55 PM NHL [6] Los Angeles Kings -145
09:05 PM NBA [507] TOTAL o214-110 (Golden State Warriors vrs Denver Nuggets)
10:05 PM NBA [509] Dallas Mavericks -1-115
09:00 PM NBA [651] Minnesota Lynx +1-105
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :spotting: :00hour:em71: :drinky: :mj06:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
I am taking the Flames in this one. It is not easy to sweep a home and home, and this is the Flames home opener, and I think they come up big in this contest. Elliot struggled in the loss to the Oilers Wednesday night, but he is a much better goalie then what we saw, and if he made a few big saves in that one Calgary could have made it very close game. The Flames had to kill six penalties and I do not see them in the box as much in this one, and I am confident they can take their home opener against an Oilers team that has a hard time winning games in Calgary.
OILERS VS. FLAMES
PLAY: FLAMES -128
It?s the back end of a home and home set to start the season as Calgary plays host to Edmonton tonight. The Oilers were 7-4 winners on Wednesday evening, but I expect the Flames to rebound this evening.
If you watched the season opener between these two teams, you?ll likely agree with me when I offer that this is game Calgary could and probably should have won. They enjoyed a territorial edge most of the evening, and they even managed to score two shorthanded goals during the second period to temporarily tie things at 3-3.
The big problem for Calgary in the opener was twofold. First, Brian Elliot was absolutely awful. Elliot is off a tremendous 2015-16 campaign, but his first game as a Flame was a disaster. The man they call Moose needs to be much better tonight.
The other issue was on defense, as new coach Glen Gulutzan broke up what is the best Flames blueline pairing and let?s just say it didn?t work out. Look for the Giordano-Brodie combo to be back together on defense tonight.
I?m certainly not going to draw any conclusions from just one game, and I?ll maintain Calgary is a team with a chance to climb some rungs this season. Edmonton has the amazing Connor McDavid, and there is some offensive talent on the team. But I still believe the Oilers are too porous defensively and in the cage to be a playoff contender.
The home team will definitely be out for revenge this evening, and off what I saw on Wednesday evening, I believe they can outplay the Oilers again tonight. Hopefully, there will be some tightening up defensively and Elliot will not do another impression of a sieve. The price is reasonable enough, so I?ll recommend the Flames on the money line tonight.
Blue Jays/Indians Over 7.5
The Blue Jays bats have been on fire these playoffs and just like last year this team has a chance to get to the World Series, but as the playoffs get deeper hot hitting teams at some point have to win with pitching too. Cleveland has been so impressive in the bottom of their order this postseason that no out is an easy out. Toronto might beat teams with the long ball, but it?s going to be very tough to get 3 outs each inning against this Indians lineup. I think both teams put up a good amount of runs today.
Toronto Blue Jays +125
The Indians will have Corey Kluber toeing the rubber tonight at Progressive Field and he is only 1-3 with an ugly 5.34 ERA in his five career starts against the Blue Jays. Kluber has particularly struggled in recent meetings with 11 earned runs allowed in 15 innings over his last 3 starts against Toronto. The Blue Jays will counter with Marco Estrada and Toronto has gone 2-0 in his two career starts against the Tribe. Estrada has given up only 10 hits in 12 innings over his two starts against the Indians. The Blue Jays not only have the starting pitching edge here, they also have an edge in terms of recent playoff experience. For Cleveland, it has been awhile and they will now be tested after their sweep of the slumping Red Sox in the ALDS. Keep in mind, Boston ended up losing 8 of their last 9 games to finish their season and that means too much weight should not be put into that Cleveland sweep. The Blue Jays, however, knocked off the Rangers who were 20-11 through September 30th and were arguably the most consistent top team throughout the regular season. With the pitching edge and the line value on the underdog, we?ll grab the roadie in this one. Bet the BLUE JAYS on the money line in Game 1 of the ALCS Friday!
Mississippi St / BYU Over 58
The value here is on the OVER, as I see these two teams easily combining for 60+ points. Mississippi State?s offense isn?t as bad as it looked against Auburn last week. At the same time, BYU?s defense isn?t as strong as they looked in their win over the Spartans.
Auburn holding the Bulldogs to just 14 points shouldn?t have come as a big surprise. The most points the Tigers have allowed all season is 29 points and that was against Texas A&M. They held Clemson to just 19 points and LSU to only 13.
The key here is that Miss State runs a very similar spread offense to that of Toledo and West Virginia. Two teams that put up some big numbers on the Cougars. The Mountaineers put up 35 points and 481 yards of offense, while the Rockets put up 53 points and 692 yards.
BYU?s defense really benefited from Michigan State?s lack of a passing attack. The Spartans weren?t able to take advantage of a weak Cougars secondary. BYU comes into this game ranked 109th in the country against the pass, giving up 278.7 ypg. Michigan State refused to try an take advantage of this, attempting just 21 passes.
Mississippi State quarterback Nick Fitzgerald isn?t great, but I?m confident they come out throwing. Just two games ago, Fitzgerald put up 305 yards and 3 scores on UMass. It?s also important to note he?s a threat to run the ball. He?s rushed for 100+ yards twice this season and is averaging 6.1 yards/carry.
You also have to factor in that BYU?s defense might not be as locked in as it was last week. Not only are they coming off a huge road win, but they got another big road game on deck. The Cougars go to Boise State next Thursday. The Broncos are No. 15 in the country and a perfect 5-0 going into Week 7.
On the flip side of all this, I think BYU?s offense will make life miserable for the Bulldogs defense. Mississippi State?s defensive numbers aren?t as good as they look, due to who they have played. Auburn?s the best offense they have played and they aren?t great. Keep in mind the Tigers fumbled on the first 3 possessions of the 2nd half last week or they would have had 50+ points.
You also have to factor in that is a tough spot for the Bulldogs defense. They don?t travel west often and the thin air of Utah takes a lot out of you. I just don?t see Mississippi State?s defense playing well here.
San Diego State -17
I have no problem laying this big number on the road with the Aztecs against a bad Fresno State team. You have to pick your spots taking road favorites in these weekday games and this is one I really like. I just don't see the Bulldogs' fans getting up for this game. Their team is 1-5 and has shown no signs of turning this thing around. This is also a great matchup for San Diego State. The Aztecs have the No. 22 ranked rushing offense in the country, averaging 236.8 ypg. A big part of that is star running back Donnel Pumphrey, who has already rushed for 891 yards. Pumphrey and the Aztecs will be facing a Bulldogs defense that ranks a miserable 126th against the run, allowing 272.0 ypg. On the flip side of things, San Diego State's defense is ranked 15th in the country in total defense and will be facing a Fresno State offense that ranks a mere 96th. Keep in mind the Aztecs were embarrassed in their last road game, losing 24-42 as a 19.5-point favorite at South Alabama. That should have them 100% locked in on not only winning this game but doing so in blowout fashion.
B.C. LIONS -5 over Winnipeg
The Blue Bombers were lucky to escape Week 16 with a 37-35 home win over the Lions. That score is very misleading, as Winnipeg was the beneficiary of a review blunder on a clear Andrew Harris fumble deep in their own territory late in the game. The Bombers jumped out to a big early 24-3 lead early in the second quarter and then hit the wall, as the Lions dominated the play the rest of the way. The Bombers were very average offensively in game one of this home and home and now they have to head out to B.C. Place to face a vastly superior opponent that is in a foul mood. The Lions foul mood stems from the fact that they feel they got cheated last week and that?s because they did.
B.C. only has itself to blame for blowing last week?s game in Winnipeg. The Lions shot themselves in the foot late in the fourth quarter with a chance to win it and that was before the blown fumble call. On a crucial 3rd and 1, B.C. chose a sweep play instead of running straight ahead in a league where the defensive line must play a yard off the ball. Jonathan Jennings threw for 422 yards but his two interceptions outweighed an otherwise impressive aerial attack.
It?s hard to beat a team two weeks in a row, especially when that team is superior, thus the Bombers are really behind the eight ball here. B.C. Place is a tough place to play under normal circumstances but this one is anything but. While Winnipeg has been on a nice run since Matt Nichols took over, we?re not ready to back them in a tough road game like this. These teams are tied for second in the West Division but the Lions have a game in hand. If B.C. wins here, they will very likely host the West Semi-Final, a much better scenario than having to travel back to Winnipeg in November. Many of Winnipeg?s victories this year were Houdini acts including last week?s win and now the Bombers are getting a bit too much credit for taking down a B.C. team that was sleeping in the first quarter. We promise they won?t be sleeping in this one. Instead, the Lions have a score to settle to correct a wrong and the Bombers will play the price. This one is high on our recommendation list.
Saturday
Ohio State at Wisconsin
Play: Ohio State 10
The Wisconsin Badgers return to the gridiron off a much-needed bye week. The offense was exposed in a big way in their 14-7 loss to Michigan; 159 total yards for 3.0 yards per play. Quarterback Alex Hornibrook completed just 9-of-25 passes for 88 yards with one touchdown and three interceptions. The no. 2 ranked Ohio State Buckeyes are coming off a non-covering 38-17 victory over Indiana. It was by OSU standards a flat performance after beating Rutgers 58-0. For the first time all season, the offense struggled as the Hoosiers held the Buckeyes to a season-low 383 yards. The storyline was the defense as Indiana managed only 281 yards and coughed up the ball twice.
Despite a poor offensive showing last week, the Buckeyes will have a significant edge this weekend. The offense has generated 28 plays of 20 yards or more and 12 plays over 30 yards this season. The Badgers meanwhile are one of the least explosive teams in the Big Ten with only six plays all season of more than 30 yards and none beyond 50. The ability to pick up big chunks of yards is paramount in a game projected to be low scoring and Wisconsin just doesn?t have much of any ?big play? type players. And while Wisconsin?s defense has been up to the task this season (291.4 ypg allowed), Ohio State?s has been just as potent. The Buckeyes not only dominated four inferior foes but put the clamps on Oklahoma in Norman as the Sooners barely topped the 400 yard mark. Note that Oklahoma hung 52 and 45, respectively, against TCU and Texas following that home loss to Ohio State.
Ohio State has been very successful away from Columbus under head coach Urban Meyer: 19-0 SU and 8-4 ATS as road favorites. Wisconsin?s defense has proven capable of winning (vs. LSU, vs. Michigan State) and covering (vs. Michigan) pointspreads but this is the first situation where the Badgers will be forced to face a potent, up-tempo attack. They?ll put up resistance but I don?t trust the offense to keep pace. Lay the chalk.
Alabama vs. Tennessee
Play: Over 57
Teddy has dominated the NFL over the past two seasons: hitting 58% YTD on the heels of last year's epic 65% campaign. And he's riding a 62% college football hot streak into the weekend; steady, consistent profits! Don?t miss a single winner all weekend long!
The Tennessee defense is in a world of hurt right now, terrible news as they take on the Alabama Crimson Tide on Saturday. The Vols stop unit has, quite simply, been gutted with key injuries. They?ve lost Cameron Sutton, Jalen Reeves-Maybin and Cortez McDowell from their secondary; Quar?te Sapp and Darrin Kirkland from their linebacking corps and Danny O?Brien from the defensive line. Sutton, Sapp and O?Brien have all been lost to season ending injuries, losing top playmakers from all three defensive units.
Of that group, only McDowell has a chance to play this week, and even that?s very ?iffy?. No surprise, then, that the Vols surrendered ten plays of 20 yards or more in their double overtime loss at Texas A&M last Saturday. And, after that wild A&M on the heels of the wild Georgia game and the wild Florida game; a Vols defense that hasn?t had a bye yet certainly could use one, a gassed unit right now!
And that?s VERY bad news against the Alabama offense. The Crimson Tide aren?t stodgy this year ? they?ve been slinging the ball around, with the deepest receiving corps of the Nick Saban era; a corps so deep that they?ve struggled to get everybody involved in the passing game. Saban?s quote:
"This is a good problem to have. Last year we really kind of didn't have the depth at receiver. It was really concerning in terms of if we lost another player it would have really affected our team. So we would like to have six receivers at least that we feel can go out there and play winning football for us."
Alabama hasn?t had a mobile QB in the past, but this year, Jalen Hurts has been their third leading rusher. Against Arkansas last week, ?Bama averaged ten yards per snap. Three different running backs and four different pass catchers had single play big gainers of 20 yards or more. This just might be the best Alabama offense of the Nick Saban era, a scary thought for Tennessee?s banged up defense.
But Tennessee has performed admirably facing adversity all season; an offense with tremendous grit. That offense has produced 90 points in the second half against the Gators, Bulldogs and Aggies over the past three weeks, with Josh Dobbs throwing for 1400 yards and 14 TD?s already. In two previous road games, ?Bama allowed 73 points and more than 800 passing yards at Arkansas and Ole Miss. Expect offensive fireworks!
Ohio St. -10.5
Ohio State is going for its 20th straight true road game win, which is the longest active streak in the nation. It's an impressive feat and I see it holding up against Wisconsin.
The Badgers are well-coached, had a bye last week and are strong again defensively. I greatly respect their home field, too. But their offense is too weak to keep up with the Buckeyes. Alex Hornibrook is another in a long line of below average Wisconsin quarterbacks. The Badgers have had only one outstanding quarterback during the last 50 years and that was Russell Wilson, and he only played one year for Wisconsin.
Wisconsin, though, has had many great running backs. The Badgers' ground attack isn't up to previous standards this year, however. Corey Clement has failed to carry the Badgers' tradition of Heisman Trophy caliber tailbacks. Michigan held the Badgers to 2.5 yards per attempt on the ground in winning, 14-7, two weeks ago. Ohio State's defense is even better holding opponents to 10.8 points per game. The Buckeyes have yet to allow a touchdown on the ground.
The line should be higher as in my view it's still not fully reflecting the class difference between these two teams. Ohio State doesn't just win, but dominates winning by an average of 43 points. The Buckeyes may have been caught looking ahead to this challenge because they only defeated Indiana by 21 points last week in their worst performance. And Indiana has been decent this year.
Things could get ugly for the Badgers, who have no backdoor capability with their lack of a passing attack as Ohio State is averaging two interceptions per game. The Buckeyes have far more talent at the skill positions especially at quarterback with J.T. Barrett.
The Buckeyes also have owned this series recently covering all but one of the last eight games.