Howdy all; here we go again. Seems like there's a few more games than usual lined up this weekend, including a Best Bet in both comps, but I'll take it one step at a time.
Super 12:
Season to Date: 8-2 (80%); Best Bet - 2-0.
Game 1) Canterbury Crusaders v Queensland Reds, Jade Stadium, Christchurch, 17:00 CST.
Crusaders -8.5 ($1.90Aus).
Both teams come into this match after a bye last weekend. Previously, the Reds were pipped by the Blues in Auckland but covered while the Crusaders thumped the Chiefs at home and covered. Crusaders are likely to start with Mehrtens on the bench again although Reds' coach Mark McBain believes they may be pulling a swifty and wouldn't be surprised to see him start ahead of Aaron Mauger. The way Mauger played v the Chiefs it mightn't matter. The Crusaders will be without the injured trio of Norm Maxwell, Reuben Thorne and Mark Hammett but their depth of talent is the key reason behind their three-peat in this comp and have fine replacements in Chris Jack, Sam Broomhall and Andrew "Pumper" Hore, who is a punishing opening bat for Otago in NZ's domestic cricket comp. The Reds will still be without captain John Eales. The Reds are 2-1 ATS but that's against the Hurricanes, Chiefs and Blues - not a top-4 team among them. And while they covered against the Blues, they were notably outplayed in the forwards (as they were against the Chiefs) and I believe are badly missing Eales' leadership. I have no doubt the home team will triumph here, so let's look at the spread - they need to win by two scores or more (try and conversion +7pts; penalty 3pts eg). Not a lot considering the alterations around the tackled ball law are designed to enable quicker ruck ball and less static play (which previously allowed the flat defences to organise). The Reds will struggle to make an impact on the Super 12 this year; the Crusaders will grow stronger chasing a 4th consecutive crown.
PLAY CRUSADERS -8.5
Game 2) Cats v Wellington Hurricanes, Sth Africa, 02:35 CST
Cats -11.5 ($1.90Aus).
The Cats are still my early favourites for the title under wily coach Laurie Mains and should win at home again. But if I thought the Hurricanes were desperate last weekend, imagine how pumped they have to be for this match, with a defeat definitely ending any realistic hopes of making the playoffs. They were ultimately well-beaten by the top-of-the table Sharks but two tries disallowed (correctly but by mere millimetres) by the video ref early could have made a huge difference to their confidence and gameplan. Paul Steinmetz comes into the 'Canes backline at second-five in place of Jason O'Halloran with the intention of causing more uncertainty inside, before freeing up room for Cullen, Lomu and Umaga. The Cats saw off the Sharks 28-21 but gave up two late tries, which offers a window for a backdoor cover for a side which can produce long-range tries at will. Captain and No8 Andre Vos should play for the Cats despite having the flu and the battle between their outstanding loose forward trio of Vos, Venter and Erasmus and the young lions of Collins, So'oialo and Tiatia will be a treat. 'Canes are 0-4 ATS; I think they're too strong a side to go 0-5.
PLAY HURRICANES +11.5
NRL)
Seaon to Date: 9-8 (52.94%); Best Bet 1-1.
Game 1) St George-Illawarra Dragons v Northern Eagles, SFS, 18:00 CST
Dragons +3.5 ($1.90Aus).
The bookies have been incredibly wary here - I was expecting to get the Dragons at approx +7.5, given their injury horrors and the Eagles win over the Roosters last weekend. But this line is a spoiler. The Eagles have conceded 30pts or more in their last 3 matches but are 3-2 ATS and have sharp attacking weapons in Kimmorley and Menzies. The Dragons will again be without key playmker Trent Barrett, which will hurt their ability to rack up points. I believe the Dragons could play above themselves and cause an upset tonight, but I'm not betting on belief and see better plays elsewhere.
NO PLAY
GLTA; back tomorrow with plenty more.
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I saw the best minds of my generation destroyed by March Madness ...
[This message has been edited by Anders (edited 03-22-2001).]
Super 12:
Season to Date: 8-2 (80%); Best Bet - 2-0.
Game 1) Canterbury Crusaders v Queensland Reds, Jade Stadium, Christchurch, 17:00 CST.
Crusaders -8.5 ($1.90Aus).
Both teams come into this match after a bye last weekend. Previously, the Reds were pipped by the Blues in Auckland but covered while the Crusaders thumped the Chiefs at home and covered. Crusaders are likely to start with Mehrtens on the bench again although Reds' coach Mark McBain believes they may be pulling a swifty and wouldn't be surprised to see him start ahead of Aaron Mauger. The way Mauger played v the Chiefs it mightn't matter. The Crusaders will be without the injured trio of Norm Maxwell, Reuben Thorne and Mark Hammett but their depth of talent is the key reason behind their three-peat in this comp and have fine replacements in Chris Jack, Sam Broomhall and Andrew "Pumper" Hore, who is a punishing opening bat for Otago in NZ's domestic cricket comp. The Reds will still be without captain John Eales. The Reds are 2-1 ATS but that's against the Hurricanes, Chiefs and Blues - not a top-4 team among them. And while they covered against the Blues, they were notably outplayed in the forwards (as they were against the Chiefs) and I believe are badly missing Eales' leadership. I have no doubt the home team will triumph here, so let's look at the spread - they need to win by two scores or more (try and conversion +7pts; penalty 3pts eg). Not a lot considering the alterations around the tackled ball law are designed to enable quicker ruck ball and less static play (which previously allowed the flat defences to organise). The Reds will struggle to make an impact on the Super 12 this year; the Crusaders will grow stronger chasing a 4th consecutive crown.
PLAY CRUSADERS -8.5
Game 2) Cats v Wellington Hurricanes, Sth Africa, 02:35 CST
Cats -11.5 ($1.90Aus).
The Cats are still my early favourites for the title under wily coach Laurie Mains and should win at home again. But if I thought the Hurricanes were desperate last weekend, imagine how pumped they have to be for this match, with a defeat definitely ending any realistic hopes of making the playoffs. They were ultimately well-beaten by the top-of-the table Sharks but two tries disallowed (correctly but by mere millimetres) by the video ref early could have made a huge difference to their confidence and gameplan. Paul Steinmetz comes into the 'Canes backline at second-five in place of Jason O'Halloran with the intention of causing more uncertainty inside, before freeing up room for Cullen, Lomu and Umaga. The Cats saw off the Sharks 28-21 but gave up two late tries, which offers a window for a backdoor cover for a side which can produce long-range tries at will. Captain and No8 Andre Vos should play for the Cats despite having the flu and the battle between their outstanding loose forward trio of Vos, Venter and Erasmus and the young lions of Collins, So'oialo and Tiatia will be a treat. 'Canes are 0-4 ATS; I think they're too strong a side to go 0-5.
PLAY HURRICANES +11.5
NRL)
Seaon to Date: 9-8 (52.94%); Best Bet 1-1.
Game 1) St George-Illawarra Dragons v Northern Eagles, SFS, 18:00 CST
Dragons +3.5 ($1.90Aus).
The bookies have been incredibly wary here - I was expecting to get the Dragons at approx +7.5, given their injury horrors and the Eagles win over the Roosters last weekend. But this line is a spoiler. The Eagles have conceded 30pts or more in their last 3 matches but are 3-2 ATS and have sharp attacking weapons in Kimmorley and Menzies. The Dragons will again be without key playmker Trent Barrett, which will hurt their ability to rack up points. I believe the Dragons could play above themselves and cause an upset tonight, but I'm not betting on belief and see better plays elsewhere.
NO PLAY
GLTA; back tomorrow with plenty more.
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I saw the best minds of my generation destroyed by March Madness ...
[This message has been edited by Anders (edited 03-22-2001).]
