Friday: Play of the Day (6-1 in the Ivy)

superbook

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After a nice win with Georgia on Wednesday, Cal SLO let me down last night.

Play of the Day: 5-3 year to date

Ivy League Picks: 6-1


I'm not stealing this Play of the Day from No Tax but it's good to know that he's in agreement because he's been on fire the last couple of weeks at the other site.

Harvard +2

Princeton and Penn have taken turns owning the Ivy. Only twice since 1963 -- and not since 1988 -- has one of the two teams failed to win or share the Ivy title. This year it's Penn turn as at #55 RPI they have by far the best team in the league. Princeton is currently at 4-7 and will probably finish in the middle of the pack, below Brown and others.

Home court has always been incredibly important in the Ivy and to make matters worse for Princeton this year they're 0-6 on the road.

Harvard is a perfect 3-0 ATS this season and 5-1 at home.

Harvard is atop the Ivy at 2-0 by sweeping Dartmouth in both of their games. I'm sure that Harvard's goal this weekend is to win at least one of their two league games, and they have the best chance for a win tonight against Princeton as they have to face a much better Penn team on Saturday night. Especially since Penn will be out to avenge last year's 77-62 loss which snapped the Quaker's 25 game Ivy winning streak. Conversely, Princeton can lose this game and still get an easy victory Saturday night at Dartmouth.

Harvard is out to avenge last year's last second loss to Princeton when the Tigers won by two 69-67 on a desperation 3 pointer by Kyle Wente at the buzzer. Harvard was totally demoralized by that loss and despite already beating Penn they went on to lose their next four conference games and fell out of the Ivy League race.

Princeton has played a much higher level of opponent so far than Harvard and while they haven't recorded any big upsets they were leading Maryland by 15 in the second half. But one thing is clear about the Tigers so far, they haven't figured out how to replace center Nate Walton whom they lost to graduation. Harvard should own the boards vs Princeton; Harvard is averaging 35 rpg while Princeton is averaging only 24.

Princeton relies heavily on the three point shot -- half the team's shots so far this season have been from behind the arc, but this year they're averaging only 35% from 3 which is lower than in past years. No Tiger player ranks in the top 15 in the Ivy in 3 point percentage.

Harard knows they better get the win tonight because tomorrow they face a Penn team which has already beaten Temple, Villanova, Iowa State and Georgia Tech and dropped close ones to St. Joseph's and Illinois. And Penn has transfer guard Andrew Toole for this weekend's games to complement Ugonna Onyekwe and Koko Arhibong, the best inside team in the league.


Take the home dog and the points.
 

hellah10

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oh wow...princeton has lost every road game...Iam with you on Harvard...wrong team favored here. :D

Excellent write-up....if this hits...I got one in the MAC for ya tomorrow ;)
 
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superbook

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hellah --

I wouldn't put too much on that 0-6 road record, Princeton lost to some much better teams on the road: California, St. Joe's, Florida International, Maryland, George Washington and Rutgers. There's no question they've played a tougher non-conference schedule than Harvard. And FWIW, last year the Tigers came into league play with an identical 4-7 record and then went 11-3 in league play and won the Ivy championship. But IMO history isn't going to repeat itself.

Perhaps more important than the 0-6 road record is that this year's Princeton team is not as good as in the past and that Harvard's is better. Harvard plays a good defense and combined with their better rebounding will keep Princeton from hitting the 3's and from getting many boards.

gl
 

bryanz

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your 1 step ahead of me

your 1 step ahead of me

Superbook you are right on about last year ,thats the princeton way they play the bigs to get ready for conference play.You beat me to the punch above;But they are not as bad as you say shooting.They ave:21-46&8-23 from 3pts.The 3pt shot is only 33% of the shots they take.They are the better shooting team vs Harvard.The board play will even out in Ivy play.Prin also plays a bigger line up if you look at the minutes.
 

superbook

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Re: your 1 step ahead of me

Re: your 1 step ahead of me

bryanz said:
Superbook you are right on about last year ,thats the princeton way they play the bigs to get ready for conference play.You beat me to the punch above;But they are not as bad as you say shooting.They ave:21-46&8-23 from 3pts.The 3pt shot is only 33% of the shots they take.They are the better shooting team vs Harvard.The board play will even out in Ivy play.Prin also plays a bigger line up if you look at the minutes.

bryanz -- I always respect your opinions but I hope I'm right about Harvard tonight because I have a lot of $$$ on them.:eek:

Your numbers are correct but please note that the 46 FG attempts per game includes the 23 from 3 points. Check it out I think you'll see I'm right. For example, against California you'll see that the Tigers took 36 FG attempts and made 21. They took 20 3 point attempts and made 9. They scored 58 which was 9 x 3 + 7 x 1 + 12 x 2. In terms of FGs, 9 + 12 = 21.

Therefore Princeton has taken a total of 501 FG attempts of which 250 were from 3 points. This is where I got my 50% number.

Also, according to covers.com, Princeton is shooting 41.2% on the road while Harvard is shooting 43.9% at home. But then again Princeton's stats are against tougher competition.

What I noticed is that when Princeton plays better teams they tend to shoot even more than 50% from 3 points, including 20/36 vs California, 28/51 vs St. Joe's, 38/56 vs George Washington, 33/56 vs Rutgers.

Princeton lives and dies by the three; they've got more turnovers than assists. And Harvard's got a pretty good defense, their opponents are only averaging 33% from 3 points for the season.

Keep up the great posts. Good luck tonight.

- Jon
 

superbook

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Buckman said:
I'm with ya' SB...go Harvard.....:) Also went with Raymonds' best bet Yale.....:)

Buckman --

FWIW I've got an Ivy four teamer going tonite:

Harvard
Yale
Brown
Penn


Yale should win at home, Columbia's got two top Ivy players but not as much depth and same team last year (all five starters returned) played much better at home than on the road
 

bryanz

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SB your right with your #'s

SB your right with your #'s

good luck.I do not have anything on this game, but I follow the Ivy's and was trying to help.You seem to have all bases covered.
 

Buckman

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Great IVY call SB....went to are local high school game with my son....didn't get the second.....my guy can't believe I'm bettin' IVY league....I guess he's in denial.....:toast:

Once again thanks a bunch...have had a bad week over all...hopefully this starts the weekend right!!!!
 

superbook

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Re: good job sb

Re: good job sb

boozee11 said:
i missed them but very impressive.hopefully you got some down plus 2.5

boozee -- where are we drinking tonight?:toast:


Wager Type: Parlay (4 team)
Wager Status: Win
Risk / To Win Amount: 500.00 / 5000.00 (USD)
Amount Paid: 3500.00


Item #1
Wager Type: Spread
Outcome: Cancelled
Sport / Period: NCAA Basketball / Game
Line:
Brown 1/11/2002 7:00:00 PM - EST
-13 -110

Item #2
Wager Type: Spread
Outcome: Win
Sport / Period: NCAA Basketball / Game
Line:
Harvard 1/11/2002 7:30:00 PM - EST
+2? -110

Item #3
Wager Type: Spread
Outcome: Win
Sport / Period: NCAA Basketball / Game
Line:
Pennsylvania 1/11/2002 7:00:00 PM - EST
-14? -110

Item #4
Wager Type: Spread
Outcome: Win
Sport / Period: NCAA Basketball / Game
Line:
Yale 1/11/2002 7:30:00 PM - EST
-3? -110
:toast:
 
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