Casper, I thought about what you said and I think you're probably right.
Play of the Day record: 8-3-2
I wasn't going to post a Play of the Day today but I decided that since this pick IMO has a better than 65% chance of winning that I would:
Fairfield +5
I've posted before that it seems like the linesmakers are slow to pick up on improved teams and that until they do it gives us a window of opportunity to make a few bucks. An example I've cited before is St. Mary's. St. Mary's was everyone's fade last year but with a better team this year they went 9-2 ATS before the linesmakers caught on two games ago.
IMO Fairfield is another case of an improved team so let's make some money on them until the linesmakers catch on.
Fairfield's dramatic improvement only materialized three weeks ago, that's when UConn transfer Ajou Deng became eligible to play. Deng at 6-11, can do it all: in his seven games with the Stags he's averaging 16.3 ppg and 9.3 rpg. He's shooting 63% from the field including 52% from the arc (15-29)
The Stags also have solid Sam Spann back for his senior year, 6-5 Spann is averaging 12.5 ppg and 6.7 rpg while shooting 47% from the field.
A couple of freshmen also make Fairfield a much better team than last year: 6-9 250 freshman Deng Gai from the Sudan is averaging 10.7 ppg and 5.2 rpg and 6-1 guard Kudjo Sugdozi is contributing 9.4 ppg.
Ajou Deng played in his first game for Fairfield on December 28th vs N-C Wilmington. In that game, Deng scored 11 but grabbed 10 rebounds, four off the offensive glass. The Stags were clearly overmatched in that one and lost by 25.
It was in his next game that Deng made his presence known: at Cansius he shot 9-13 from the field including 2-3 from the arc, grabbed 19 rebounds and had time to dish out 6 assists.
Since the game at Cansius, Fairfield has gone 4-1 ATS with the only ATS loss being at Manhattan, probably the best team in the MAAC.
Iona is not playing good ball right now, they're 1-5 ATS in their last 6 with their only ATS win coming vs. St Peter's, the worst team I've ever seen. Iona just lost to Rider at home by 3 while Fairfield just beat Iona by 12.
Part of the Gaels' problem is depth: if you look at their game box scores, Iona's five starters are each averaging 35 minutes or so, apparently they have no 6th or 7th man off the bench to come in to give the starters a breather.
If you don't know Iona, it's an old school with a decent reputation but it has evolved more into a commuter school. At least half of it's 5000 students attend part-time and these students don't go to the games. In short, home court advantage doesn't mean as much at Iona which is maybe why the Gaels are 1-6 su and 1-5 ATS at home.
Fairfield is the play here, IMO they have at least a 50% shot of winning this one straight up, so take the five points before the linesmakers catch on.
gl
Play of the Day record: 8-3-2
I wasn't going to post a Play of the Day today but I decided that since this pick IMO has a better than 65% chance of winning that I would:
Fairfield +5
I've posted before that it seems like the linesmakers are slow to pick up on improved teams and that until they do it gives us a window of opportunity to make a few bucks. An example I've cited before is St. Mary's. St. Mary's was everyone's fade last year but with a better team this year they went 9-2 ATS before the linesmakers caught on two games ago.
IMO Fairfield is another case of an improved team so let's make some money on them until the linesmakers catch on.
Fairfield's dramatic improvement only materialized three weeks ago, that's when UConn transfer Ajou Deng became eligible to play. Deng at 6-11, can do it all: in his seven games with the Stags he's averaging 16.3 ppg and 9.3 rpg. He's shooting 63% from the field including 52% from the arc (15-29)
The Stags also have solid Sam Spann back for his senior year, 6-5 Spann is averaging 12.5 ppg and 6.7 rpg while shooting 47% from the field.
A couple of freshmen also make Fairfield a much better team than last year: 6-9 250 freshman Deng Gai from the Sudan is averaging 10.7 ppg and 5.2 rpg and 6-1 guard Kudjo Sugdozi is contributing 9.4 ppg.
Ajou Deng played in his first game for Fairfield on December 28th vs N-C Wilmington. In that game, Deng scored 11 but grabbed 10 rebounds, four off the offensive glass. The Stags were clearly overmatched in that one and lost by 25.
It was in his next game that Deng made his presence known: at Cansius he shot 9-13 from the field including 2-3 from the arc, grabbed 19 rebounds and had time to dish out 6 assists.
Since the game at Cansius, Fairfield has gone 4-1 ATS with the only ATS loss being at Manhattan, probably the best team in the MAAC.
Iona is not playing good ball right now, they're 1-5 ATS in their last 6 with their only ATS win coming vs. St Peter's, the worst team I've ever seen. Iona just lost to Rider at home by 3 while Fairfield just beat Iona by 12.
Part of the Gaels' problem is depth: if you look at their game box scores, Iona's five starters are each averaging 35 minutes or so, apparently they have no 6th or 7th man off the bench to come in to give the starters a breather.
If you don't know Iona, it's an old school with a decent reputation but it has evolved more into a commuter school. At least half of it's 5000 students attend part-time and these students don't go to the games. In short, home court advantage doesn't mean as much at Iona which is maybe why the Gaels are 1-6 su and 1-5 ATS at home.
Fairfield is the play here, IMO they have at least a 50% shot of winning this one straight up, so take the five points before the linesmakers catch on.
gl
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