Friday: Play of the Day

[superbook]

Picking Friday's game isn't going to be as easy as today's; there are only five games on the card. Easy winner today in Irvine who as predicted blew open the game in the second half over a short-handed UCSB team.


Play of the Day record now: 10-6-2


I put $$$ on two games in the overnights: Iona +4 and Northern Arizona -2. I'm going to sleep on these two and I'll post one of them tomorrow as my POD and I'll give you some reasons why I chose that pick. I'm already looking at Yale at Brown on Saturday.

Okay, I'm back and I decided on:

Northern Arizona -2

This is a must-win game for NAU. They play much better at home than on the road and they have have a history of winning vs Montana, especially in Flagstaff.

After being picked to finish #2 in the Big Sky in the Preseason Coaches Poll, Northern Arizona won five of their first six. Following that nice start, NAU has lost 8 of their last 10 including the last five.

This poor performance is primarily a result of bad play on the road where they've played 11 of their first 16 games.

In their five games at home, they're shooting 54% from the field and 36% from the arc vs. 41% from the field on the road.

NAU is 0-3 in the Big Sky, a conference in which they've qualified for post-season play in each of the last five seasons. Two years ago this team qualified for the NCAAs and were leading St Johns with ten seconds to go before they found a way to lose.

Less than 24 hours after they play Montana tonight, they host the even better Montana State. So the Lumberjacks need to win tonight or they're probably looking at an 0-5 conference record.

Why I like NAU over Montana tonight:

1. This is a must-win game for NAU to keep alive any chance of making the Big Sky post-season.

2. NAU has won 8 of the last 10 in this series including each of the last five in Flagstaff. Montana hasn't won in Flagstaff since 1995/1996.

3. 6-9 Casey Grundman seems to be back at the top of his game after returning three games ago from a stress fracture suffered earlier in the season. Grundman scored 21 and pulled down 8 rebounds in just 22 minutes off the bench in the Lumberjack's last game vs Sacramento State. Grundman's 21 points represented one third of NAU's total points scored. Grundman was an all-conference honorable mention last year.

4. Despite their poor 7-9 record, NAU is 4-1 at home.

5. NAU is shooting 54% at home, including 36% from the arc.

6. NAU has a long history of winning at home and losing on the road: two years ago when they went to the Big Dance, the team was 12-2 at home and 5-8 away. During the past three seasons, the team is 26-6 at home and 12-24 away. Part of their advantage comes from being used to playing at 7000 feet as Flagstaff is one of the highest cities in the US.

7. Nickelback likes Northern Arizona too.

 

[skulldog]

Thanks once again for the winner LN.

 

[loophole]

two different takes on the game

two different takes on the game

Griz find touch behind arc

Posted: 1/25/2002
at 11:31:06

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Once reliable Lumberjacks struggling with 3-point shooting

When the Montana men's basketball team takes on Northern Arizona Friday night in Flagstaff, the game will pit the Big Sky Conference's best 3-point shooting team against the league's worst 3-point shooting team.

Here's the punchline: Montana's the best and NAU's the worst.

Northern Arizona (motto: Recruit to Shoot) has ranked among the nation's best 3-point shooting teams for the last several years, leading the nation from 1997-99.

Guys like Andrew Mavis, Ross Land and Cory Schwab were the gunslingers who gave the Jacks their swagger as they posted five 20-win seasons in the last six years and twice represented the Big Sky in the NCAA tournament.

But the Jacks, picked to finish second in the preseason polls, have struggled to find that designated shooter this season and have lost five straight, including their first three league games.

The numbers tell the story:

NAU is averaging a league-worst 64.3 points a game in conference play.

The Jacks are giving up 78.7 points a game in three league games.

NAU is shooting a league-worst 25.3 percent from 3-point range, about half of what the Jacks have shot over the last five years.

Montana, meanwhile, leads the league in 3-pointers made (146) and 3-point accuracy (.394) despite shooting a horrendous 3-for-36 from long range on the past two Friday nights.

The numbers might seem to favor the Griz, but the site worries Montana coach Don Holst. Northern Arizona, which has beaten Montana five straight times in Flagstaff, will be playing its league home opener.

"We're going to run into an Eastern Washington type of attitude,'' Holst said, referring to a 79-46 Montana loss in the Eagles' home opener. "They're going to try to take us out early. We need to be ready for the first punch.''

With the oustide game faltering, the Jacks have turned to their post players for offense. Senior center Brian McHugh leads the Jacks in scoring at 10.7 ppg and junior forward Ryan McDade (10.5) is right behind. McHugh, though, was shut out in NAU's loss at Sacramento State last week and could lose his spot in the starting lineup to senior Casey Grundman, who came off the bench to score 21 points against the Hornets.

"They have very big, strong post players,'' Holst said of the Jacks, who lead the league in rebounding margin (+4.3).

Holst sees rebounding as one of the keys against the Jacks.

"We need more balanced scoring, something we've been working at,'' Holst said. "We need to guard, we need to really go guard somebody. We need to make sure we break even on the boards, or better. If we can guard them, rebound with them and get some balanced scoring where the three-ball isn't as important as it is a bonus, then you have a chance to win down there.''

Holst said the Griz have been concentrating on defense this week. The Griz are giving up 79 points a game in league play, next to last in the league.

"We're refining and emphasizing,'' Holst said. "There's a lesson to be learned in boiling down the cabbage a little bit. We play better when the game plan is simpler.

"We need to be able to win some ugly games. That comes from defense and rebounding.''

Junior David Bell leads the Griz in scoring and ranks fifth in the league at 14.6 points a game. He's made more 3-pointers (66) than anybody in the league, but opponents are stepping up their defensive pressure against the sharpshooter. Idaho State tried a box-and-one defense against the Griz last week with one player chasing Bell. Bell still got loose for five treys and Brent Cummings stepped up with a game-high 17 points.

"We need to run more plays for Brent,'' Holst said.

Holst said senior Travis Greenwalt will be back in the starting lineup against the Jacks. Marcus Rosser and Ryan Pederson have started there for the past three games. Victor Venters came off the bench to provide a spark in the post in last Saturday's win over Idaho State, grabbing three offensive rebounds and converting each into a score.

"I thought Travis had the best game Saturday,'' Holst said. "We'll just rotate from there and we've got to get Victor a few more minutes. We'll slide Pederson over to playing more wing.''

The Griz will reach the mid-point of the conference season in their game at Sacramento State Saturday night. Five of the Grizzlies' seven games in the second half will be at home.

"We need some road breakthroughs to make a move in this league,'' Holst said.


==============================================
Must win? Jacks think so.


01/25/2002


"Must-win" isn't a term that usually graces Mike Adras' vocabulary.
But the NAU basketball coach knows as well as anyone else that anything but a victory tonight against Montana at the Skydome will likely spell the end of the Lumberjacks' Big Sky title hopes.

Heck, it could even put NAU's Big Sky tournament hopes in serious danger.

"You know I don't like to say those words," Adras said. "But ... it's a big weekend for us."

If there is a lot of pressure on the Lumberjacks' to win, it hasn't been evident in the team's practices this week. If anything, the five-game losing streak NAU is currently mired in has left the Lumberjacks frustrated and angry, and they've responded with a week of spirited, ultra-competitive practices.

"Our backs are kind of against the wall, and now that we're at home, we're in a must-win situation," NAU guard Matt Gebhardt said. "Not to put extra pressure on us, but we feel more comfortable at home and it really is a game that we have to win."

NAU finds itself in basically the same situation it did in the 1999-2000 season. The Lumberjacks lost their first four Big Sky road games, only to come home and sweep the Montana schools to start an 11-game winning streak. That team won the conference tournament and advanced to the NCAA tournament.

Adras made a passing mention of that season earlier in the week, and he is counting on his seniors to convey the message that the conference race is far from over.

"We've been in this position before as a program, and we've turned it around and made a good thing out of it," Adras said. "We can talk about getting it done, but until we go out on the court and actually do it, it's just lip service."

Now, Montana and Montana State -- which visits Saturday and plays Sacramento State tonight -- get the unenviable task of playing on back-to-back nights in Flagstaff and Sacramento. The Grizzlies are 3-2 in the Big Sky and have already picked up road wins at Weber State and Portland State.

The Grizzlies present a number of problems. Junior college transfer guard David Bell is shooting 44.3 percent from three-point range (66-for-149) and he basically has the green light from Grizzlies coach Don Holst to shoot at all times. If he gets hot, he can beat you by himself.

"He can get his shot off on anybody," Adras said. "He's got great lift and he's got good range on his shot. When we talked to Weber (State) earlier this year, they said they felt they were right on him, and three times they couldn't stop him from making the shot."

If a team concentrates too much on Bell, swingman Brent Cummings (47.8 percent from three-point range) is another tough outside shooter. Both Montana point guards -- Shane Christensen and Sam Riddle -- can hurt teams from the perimeter as well.

"Everybody on the perimeter shoots the ball for them," Adras said. "That makes it tough, because you can't say, 'OK, this guy doesn't have the ability to shoot it.'"

Montana is a team that feeds off its hot perimeter shooting. In its win at Weber State, the Grizzlies were 10-for-15 from long range. They were 16-for-25 at Portland State. In a loss to Weber State at home last week, Montana shot just 2-for-21 from behind the arc.

With that in mind, expect the Lumberjacks to extend a bit to try to keep a hand in the face of the Grizzlies' shooters at all times.

Defensively, Montana hasn't changed much. It will challenge NAU with zone looks, meaning it will be up to the Lumberjacks' outside shooters to shoot the Grizzlies out of that look. NAU is shooting 25 percent from three-point range this season.

 

[Karac]

I just wanted to say thank you for your efforts. This is a game i probably would have passed over.

Appreciate it.


GLTU

 

[nighthorse]

3 pts.

3 pts.

Defensively, Montana hasn't changed much. It will challenge NAU with zone looks, meaning it will be up to the Lumberjacks' outside shooters to shoot the Grizzlies out of that look. NAU is shooting 25 percent from three-point range this season.

ARE THEY JUST IN A DRY SPELL? IS THERE ANYONE FOR NAU THAT HAS SHOOT THE 3 WELL THIS YEAR.....IS THIS TEAM EVEN CAPABLE OF BUSTING A ZONE?

I'm just asking, I don't know. If they shoot 25% from 3 tonight, they're toast. If no one on the entire team has a good percentage, how can NAU beat a zone? I'll try to find some answers myself.

Reread post saw point number 5:
NAU is shooting 54% at home, including 36% from the arc.
The only problem I have with this is they've only played 5 home games against some fairly pathetic competition such as NM highlands and Montana Tech.

Their leading scorer is an inside guy who didn't even score in the last game against Sac. St? They have no perimeter guys who average in double figures against a team that runs a zone. I'm usually with ya, but this seems a little flaky. I'm not betting it, so I hope I'm wrong. Good luck.

 

[Buckman]

SB great call on N. Ariz.....admittedly I played light tonight because of the limited schedule.....but a win is a win is a win.....:toast:

 

[nighthorse]

They can shoot!! I didn't shoot straight on this one...doubting the POD is a bad idea :nono:

Superbook, he's not just for IVY anymore!