WINNING POINTS
***BEST BET
*Philadelphia over Phoenix by 7
The 76ers have been at their best against non-physical, finesse teams that don?t play
much defense like the Suns. Philadelphia also has been extremely tough at home going
11-3 ATS during their past 14 home contests through March 25. The Suns may not have
much left in the tank after physical road matchups versus Detroit on Monday and
Boston on Wednesday. The Suns also may be without sharpshooter Raja Bell (check status).
PHILADELPHIA 115-108
***BEST BET
*Milwaukee over Orlando by 6
Sandwiched around home games versus elite Western Conference clubs San Antonio and
New Orleans, the Magic may take this road matchup too lightly. The Bucks have firepower
with marksman Michael Redd, underrated point guard Mo Williams, improved
center Andrew Bogut and a healthy Charlie Villanueva, who has been playing well. The
Bucks are auditioning for a new general manager with Larry Harris fired. Expect a strong
home effort.
MILWAUKEE 116-110
***BEST BET
Washington over *Sacramento by 6
It?s not getting a lot of attention, but Washington has covered nine of its last 10 away
contests heading into a five-game West Coast swing. The Wizards have knocked off the
Raptors, Magic and Hornets during this span, while coming within one point to the
Suns. There?s a chance, too, Gilbert Arenas might be able to suit up. The return of Caron
Butler has been a boost to the Wizards. The Kings have depth issues because of injuries
and are playing in their fifth game in eight days.
WASHINGTON 109-103
NCAA
Kansas over Villanova by 9
Only one current player on either team ? Kansas center Sasha The Stiff Kaun ? participated
in the 2004-05 1-1 split between the sides. But Bill Self and Jay Wright got
opportunities to sniff each other?s pockets back then, with Self learning that Villanova
is always a scrappy bunch of tenacious athletes who back down from nobody, and do
a good job of turning defense to offense if the opponent allows it to happen. Clemson
? as you know the dumbest team in America for whom we were all waiting to bet
against in the Big Dance ? allowed it to happen. Siena wasn?t physical enough to prevent
it from happening. Kansas appears to be in a position to hold off the Wildcats
given their overall scoring balance -- 1.27 points per possession, most in the nation this
year. And with Russell Robinson, the 6-1, 205 point guard, an experienced senior.
Kansas? group of guards have good-sized bodies, which is very important for playing
against Villanova, where Jay Wright?s good-sized guards get up in the grill of anyone
and everyone for as long as they can get away with it. ?Nova?s freshman guards Corey
Fisher and Corey Stokes are good and getting better. But asking them to join with
steady soph point guard Scottie Reynolds and stay on a scoring pace with four Kansas?
double-digit scorers ? three upperclassmen plus 6-9, 225 soph Darrell Arthur -- is a tall
order for them to fill. Self might also dial up his ex-assistant Little Normie Roberts of
St. John?s for some of the latest lowdown on playing against ?Nova.
KANSAS 78-69
Wisconsin over Davidson by 1
You are not surprised that Davidson is here, because you read ?Davidson over
Georgetown by 1? in last week?s issue. Bob The Builder McKillopp?s Wildcats fear
nobody, and neither should you when a supposedly ?no-name? team meets a historic
but overrated (in the match-up) name brand. The only reason for the call above is that
6-2, 185 senior guard Michael Flowers of the Badgers is one of the best defensive guards
in the nation and might be able to play 6-3, 185 Stephen Curry better than anyone has
all season. Still, that doesn?t mean Curry cannot still go off for his 25-point average.
Wisconsin?s beef is well distributed, but Bo Ryan does not want to get too big and tall
for too long here, and risk going stale on the offensive end while Davidson makes one
its runs that brought them back from double-digit deficits against both Gonzaga and
Georgetown. Forget about Davidson getting tired. They came back against a quickpaced
and deep Gonzaga team, and against a physical Georgetown team that plays at
a pace that normally prevents comebacks. Wisconsin?s normal pedestrian pace (62.5
possessions per game) won?t wind the Wildcats, who will feel as if they are playing
against similarly paced SoCon foe Wofford ? but with more than a slight difference in
size and quality.
WISCONSIN 58-57
Michigan State over Memphis by 1
They say Memphis played a tough non-conference schedule to help prepare them for
the Tournament, but if you remember, Memphis struggled to beat USC, struggled to
beat Gonzaga, lost outright to Tennessee. They are 0-2 ATS so far in the Big Dance.
Why lay points with a group of NBA-eyeing kids who can?t shoot free throws and feel
that they have a birthright to the Final Four? We?ve often said that a team needs two
sizable big men who can stay on the floor, backed by one sizable big man off the bench,
in order to either cover, or compete and possibly beat Memphis. The Spartans have
Raymar Morgan, Goran Sutton, Drew Naymick and Marquise Gray, ranging from 6-
7 to 6-10, 225 to 245, all playing double-digit minutes. And what the heck, Izzo, why
not throw in 6-11, 255 Idong Ibok (like you did for 13 scoreless minutes against Pitt)
and 7-0 Tom Herzog for good measure and just bump and grind Memphis off their
game and onto the free-throw line, where 59.5% makes ain?t gonna cut it? It?s just a
question of whether or not guard Drew Neitzel can hold his end of the bargain and stay
on the floor for 36 minutes. Memphis guard Derrick Rose isn?t about to receive any
special treatment as a one-and-done-with-college freshman attempting to lead his team
to a championship. Has not, and will not, be puttin? in the time necessary to earn the
love. Neitzel, fourth-year senior. He?s your man
MICHIGAN STATE 69-68
Texas over Stanford by 5
Stanford head coach Trent Johnson did his team a favor by getting double-technicaled
off the floor in last weekend?s Second Round win against Marquette, with Stanford outscoring
Marquette after Johnson was banned from the proceedings. The wise guy word
is that Johnson does less with more, citing Stanford?s 10-man rotation of mostly upperclassmen,
dual 7-footers, 28-7 SU record, yet just 18-17 ATS record. Who are we to
argue? Texas withstood a legit second-round challenge from a tough, Miami-FL team
whose coaches knew Texas as well as anyone in the tournament, two of them having
been hired by Rick Barnes to work as Longhorns? assistants for multiple recent seasons.
Good guards are usually the way to go in tournament action, yet, as mentioned many
times about Stanford, their biggest impact players are the 7-foot Lopez twins. They
have a lot of able bodies that enable them to compete with anyone in the nation for a
long time on any given night, and they are longer and leaner on defense than most
people realize. But Texas? backcourt of Augustin and Abrams are elite players capable of
going for 20 apiece, and the 3-point range of 6-10 Atchley should force one Stanford
twin father away from the basket and enable Texas to compete well enough on the
boards to win
TEXAS 75-70
