Comps
Marc Lawrence
LA ANGELS
The Angels open a weekend series with the Tigers in the Motor City behind Ervin Santana, who is in solid KW form (19 strikeouts; 4 walks) in his last three starts. With Detroit's Nate Robertson a miserable 1-6 with an 8.91 ERA in his career team starts in this series, look for Santana and the Halos to capture the opener here tonight.
Jim Feist
LA ANGELS
A big edge on the mound and in the bullpen for the visitors. Young LA starter Ervin Santana is harnessing his great stuff at 3-0 with a 2.67 ERA. He's tough to hit and has a sizzling 22-6 K/BB ratio. Tigers starter Nate Robertson doesn't have it, at 0-2 with an ERA over 7. He averages 5 innings per start, which is worse when you throw in Detroit's bullpen struggles. Robertson is also 0-4 with an 8.91 ERA against the Angels. An excellent spot for the visitors. Play the Angels!
Chip Chirimbes
LA ANGELS
On Saturday, Santana gave up one run, three hits, walked none and struck out a season-high eight in eight innings of a 4-1 win over Seattle. Santana is once again showing he can dominate after going 7-14 with a 5.76 ERA and being briefly demoted to the minor leagues in 2007. The right-hander has posted a 3.46 ERA in winning both of his road starts in 2008 after going 1-10 with a 8.87 ERA in 14 starts away from Angel Stadium last season. Santana was tagged for eight runs and seven hits in 3 2-3 innings of a 12-0 loss at Comerica Park on May 24, his only start against the Tigers last season. He is 0-2 with a 15.26 ERA in two career starts at Detroit, compared to 2-0 with a 0.64 ERA in two home starts versus the Tigers. Detroit counters with Nate Robertson (0-2, 7.48), who is once again looking for his first win. Robertson gave up five runs and eight hits in five innings of a 5-3 loss to Toronto on Sunday. Over his four starts, the left-hander has yielded 29 hits and 18 runs in 21 2-3 innings. Robertson has also struggled against Los Angeles in his career, going 0-4 with a 8.91 ERA in seven starts. In his only outing against the Angels last season on July 27, Robertson was tagged for eight runs and 10 hits in 5 2-3 innings of an 11-6 loss. Los Angeles is coming off a 7-5 win over Boston on Thursday to take two of three at Fenway Park
Dave Cokin
ATLANTA BRAVES
Atlanta righty Jair Jurrjens is on a roll and he's catching a decent price to boot as the Braves open a weekend set at Shea against the Mets. Mike Pelfrey got knocked around in his last start and continues to be little more than a stopgap back of the rotation type. The Mets are being flat out overpriced right now as they're playing .500 ball and the dog has the better pitcher going in this contest. Jurrjens and the Braves are the choice.
Tony Matthews
LA ANGELS
We will side with the LA Angels as they face-off against the Detroit Tigers in Friday's MLB contest. The LA Angels will use starting pitcher Ervin Santana. Ervin Santana has pitched well so far this season. Ervin Santana is a Perfect 3-0 with a 2.26 ERA. We see Ervin Santana having another solid start today. The Detroit Tigers will use starting pitcher Nate Robertson. Nate Robertson has struggled so far this season. In fact, Nate Robertson has a 7.48 ERA on the season. We see Nate Robertson once again giving up many runs today. The LA Angels have had long-term success against the Detroit Tigers. In fact, the LA Angels are 38-14 in their last 52 meetings against the Detroit Tigers. Take the LA Angels!
Matt Fargo
HOUSTON ASTROS +117
Houston has now won five in a row and the momentum continues to build. The Astros started the season 3-8 but have gone 8-4 since then and the reason for the turnaround is obvious. The offense has improved dramatically as Houston has scored six runs or more in four of its last five games, averaging 8.2 rpg and you can see what the results are. The pitching has been hit or miss all season but the fact that the staff has allowed three runs in four of the last six games shows some great improvement. The Cardinals are coming off a win at Pittsburgh but it was just their third in their last eight games. St. Louis is back home where it is 8-4 on the season but three of the last four at Busch Stadium have resulted in defeats and it catches a very hot team right now. The Cardinals are just 1-4 in their last five games following a win and they have not won back-to-back games in close to two weeks. Heading home could be thought of as a turnaround but the matchup is just not in their favor in this one. Shawn Chacon has been the biggest surprise on this staff and one of the biggest in baseball. He has tossed four straight quality outings to open the season but he has nothing to show for it as he has yet to pick up a victory. As a matter of fact, the Astros have lost three of those four games but it is a different team now. Houston scored eight runs total in his first three starts but broke out with six runs last time out and with the way the offense is now, that production should continue. It will also help to face a struggling Braden Looper. It has been the complete opposite for Looper who has pitched poorly yet St. Louis has won three of his four starts. He is coming off his worst effort of the season as he allowed seven runs on 10 hits in just three innings against the Giants. He started the season with a quality outing against Washington but none of his last three have been quality efforts. Houston has won five straight games against right-handed starters.
Ross Benjamin
COLORADO ROCKIES +135
The Rockies are a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 meetings with the Dodgers. Colorado is 10-2 in the last 12 as a road underdog of 1.50 or less. The Rockies are 13-5 in the last 18 on the road versus a team with a winning home record. The Colorado starting pitcher Jiminez was 3-0 in his 3 team starts versus the Dodgers in 2007. The Dodgers starter Kuroda enters this outing in bad form off his last 3 team starts going 0-3 with a 1.64 WHIP allowing 23 hits and 6 walks in just 17.2 innings. The value is with the underdog in this spot. Play on the Colorado Rockies as my free selection of the night.
Brad Diamond Sports
LA ANGELS
No doubt the Tigers have regained offensive form, especially with Granderson (lead-off homer last night) back in the lineup to formulate run production at the top of the order. The Tigers have won four straight, but still are below the winning marker of a .500 season at 10-13. The Angels (14-9) are tied for first in the division with the pesky A?s, but more important the west coast club is a major 8-4 on the road with a current reality streak of 8 wins in their last 11 games. RHP Santana (3-0) of LA has a solid 0.96 WHIP and his team mates have supported the hurler throughout the early going. Lefty Robertson of Detroit, however, is on down cycle in the early season with poor location ?up.? Lifetime the hurler has never defeated LA (0-4, 8.91 ERA). Support the hot roadie this evening.
Jeff Benton
5♦ MINNESOTA TWINS
The Rangers are an absolute mess right now, having lost seven straight games and 12 of their last 14, including five consecutive defeats at home. And although they just faced a couple of offensive juggernauts at Boston and at Detroit ? two teams with much more thump than the Twins, I do admit ? you can?t look past the fact that Texas lost all seven games by a combined tally of 67-24! And over their last 15 games, the Rangers have surrendered at least four runs 14 times. Yes, they do have their ace on the mound tonight in Kevin Millwood, but don?t be overly fooled by his 2.53 ERA. Millwood has been doing it with mirrors, as he?s allowed 50 baserunners (38 hits, 12 walks) in 32 innings. And in his last home start, Millwood lasted just five innings against the Angels, giving up four runs and nine hits in five innings of a 7-4 loss. And if you go back to mid-September, the Rangers are 2-7 in Millwood?s last nine starts ? with the two wins coming against the Orioles. What?s more, the Rangers are 0-3 in Millwood?s three starts against the Twins since signing the righthander prior to the 2006 season. And if you go back to Millwood?s days with the Phillies and Indians, Minnesota is 6-2 the last eight times they?ve faced Millwood. As for Minnesota starter Nick Blackburn, the rookie has been outstanding, giving up just seven runs with three walks and 12 strikeouts in 25 1/3 innings of work (2.49 ERA). In his most recent start against the Indians on Sunday, the righthander pitched 7 2/3 scoreless innings, scattering eight hits (no walks) in a 3-0 victory. Although pitching in Texas is never easy, Blackburn seems to have the stuff to handle the task. Throw in the fact that the Twins won seven of nine against the Rangers in 2007, and they have one of THE best bullpens in baseball, and I?ll take some plus money with the road ?dog and look for Minnesota to continue the Rangers? woes.
Michael Cannon
PIRATES +110
Zach Duke will start for the Buccos and he was roughed up a bit in his last start, but I expect him to rebound with a solid performance tonight. Duke looked good through his first three starts of the year, and I expect him to carry that over into tonight?s start. The left-hander has suffered through a couple of down years since his sensational rookie season, but the Pirates coaching staff has worked diligently with him to regain the form he showed in 2005. Adam Eaton will start for Philadelphia, and the Bucs have had success hitting him in his career. The right-hander has a 9.74 ERA in four games against Pittsburgh, allowing 22 earned runs in just 20 1-3 innings.Take the Pirates as they grab the home win.
Bobby Maxwell
4♦ TORONTO BLUE JAYS -110
The Blue Jays' A.J. Burnett (2-1, 6.85 ERA) dominated the Royals twice last season and Toronto has won three of his four starts this season so we're putting our money behind him in this one. Burnett gave up three runs on four hits in five innings of a 5-3 win over the Tigers in his last start and opened his season on the road in New York giving up two runs on five hits in six innings of a 5-2 win over the Yankees. In two starts against the Royals last season Burnett allowed two runs on six hits in 14 innings of 9-1 and 4-1 Toronto victories. Zack Greinke (3-0, 1.24 ERA) is on the hill for the Royals and his first three starts were magnificent and then in his last outing on Saturday he allowed three runs on eight hits in five innings of a 6-5 loss in Oakland. The Blue Jays are 6-2 in Burnett's last eight starts and 4-1 in his last five on the highway. And for some reason they enjoy Fridays, going 4-1 in their last five. Meanwhile the Royals are 1-4 in their last five home games and 4-10 as a home underdog. And Against chamberlain. A.L. East they are 28-65. Let's go with Burnett in this one. He'll get to job done on the road.
John Fina
BRAVES / METS UNDER 9?
Put us down on the Atlanta Braves/New York Mets Under 9.5 for our Free MLB Selection on Friday. Today we see a low-scoring game as the Atlanta Braves do battle with the New York Mets. One reason why we expect a low-scoring game is because both these teams will be sending to the mound solid starting pitchers. This says it all... The Atlanta Braves will send to the mound Jair Jurrjens. Jair Jurrjens has a solid 3.20 ERA on the season. The New York Mets will send to the mound Michael Pelfrey. Michael Pelfrey has a solid 3.18 ERA on the season. The Under is 3-1 in Jair Jurrjens 4 starts this season, while the Under is 2-1 in Michael Pelfrey's 3 starts this season. In addition, these teams have been known to play low-scoring games when they meet. In fact, the Under is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings between these teams. We expect to see another low-scoring game tonight! Take the Atlanta Braves/New York Mets Under 9.5!
Bryan Leonard
CHICAGO CUBS -122
Chicago Cubs over Washington While we normally emphasize pitching in our analysis, it's hitting that gives us a huge edge tonight. Simply put the Cubs are far superior to the Nationals on offense and the line isn't reflecting the disparity. Chicago has been especially good against left-handed starters scoring a whopping 6.46 runs per game including hitting for a .310 average. Washington has scored just 3.61 runs per game vs righties while hitting just .232. Washington is just 1-10 in their last 11 games vs right-handed starters. The Cubs send former closer Ryan Dempster to the hill with a perfect 6-0 career mark vs the Nationals. Last year in limited duty he held Washington to a .182 slugging percentage. Odalis Perez posted ERA's of 5.57 and 6.83 the past seasons. Thus far in four starts with Washington he has held the opposition to a 3.38 ERA. Most of the credit has to go to a ground ball to fly ball ratio of 3 to 1, well above his career marks. Once Perez gets up in the strike zone he can be hit hard and we would rather trust a career of information than four starts from this 30 year old lefty. Chicago has taken 6 of the last 7 meetings in this series and the Cubs have something Washington lacks, a consistent offensive threat. We lay the cheap number with the far superior team with a pitching matchup that should be considered a wash.
Sports Gambling Hotline
3♦ YANKEES / INDIANS UNDER
Tonight we like a pitcher's duel between Andy Pettitte, and Paul Byrd as the Yankees and Indians do battle in what we see as a low-scoring contest. Pettitte's last 3 starts have all come on the road, and the southpaw has allowed just 4 earned runs over 21 innings of work for a 1.74 road ERA this season. Byrd has been getting his act in gear after a shaky start, as the righty has gone 13 innings his last 2 starts, while allowing just 1 earned run to score. New York has played UNDER the total in 8 of their 13 road games this season, while Cleveland has played LOW in 4 of their last 6 games to date. Last year during the regular season, these teams played 2 of the 3 meetings at Cleveland UNDER the posted price, and we see them playing LOW again this evening. Play on the UNDER.
Drew Gordon
3♦ KANSAS CITY ROYALS -105
Both of these teams are struggling at the plate, but if oddsmakers want to give me Zach Grieke, at home, at this price, I'll take it with a smile. Guys, Greike has been the Royals best pitcher, and has the numbers to back it, going 3-0 with a lockdown 1.24 ERA in 4 starts this season! In his only home start, he dominated the Yankees vaunted batting order, pitching 8 scoreless inning en route to the 4-0 Royals win! This is not the pitcher the Blue Jays lineup wants to see after struggling badly against Tampa Bay in their last series. You can't say the same about AJ Burnett, who despite pitching well against the Royals last season, is anything but a sure thing tonight. He got his first win since April 2nd in his last start, but overall has been below average this season, going 2-1 with an ugly 6.85 ERA. The fact he walked 6 batters in his last one has to open a few eyes, and while the Royals are no offensive juggernaut, they're much better against righties, batting .265 on the year. For all the talk about the Royals struggles at the plate, the Blue Jays are even worse off, batting .240 as a team over their last 10 games, including just .237 against righties... And it won't get any easier against Greike in this one! Bottom line, despite losing 7 straight, there's no question Greike gives the Royals their best chance to snap their losing streak tonight, and I say they take full advantage. Burnett has struggled with inconsistency in the past, and tonight will be no different. Also, the fact the Blue Jays batting order couldn't hit a beach ball right now cannot be ignored. Royals roll! Take Kansas City behind Greike over Toronto and Burnett in this MLB match up.
2♦ PHOENIX SUNS -6?
Needless to say this game is an absolute "must-win" for the Suns, and I expect they'll respond accordingly tonight. I know its tough after watching the first two games of this series to lay this many point with the Suns, but the truth is, the Spurs weren't nearly as good on the road this season, and the numbers back my claim: 22-19 SU & just 15-26 ATS away! But let's dig a little deeper... We saw in the first half of Game 2 that this Suns team is capable of scoring on this San Antonio offense at will, dropping 61 points on them. However, the Spurs clamped down on defense after that, allowing only 11 3rd quarter points by Nash and company. The change in venue should help the Suns maintain their energy levels, as they average 112 ppg on 50% shooting at home this season. Not only that, but let's not forget the Suns went 30-11 SU in Phoenix, including winning their only home game (with O'Neal in the lineup) 94-87 back on March 9th! Finally, one of the main reasons the Suns offense fell asleep in the second half of Game 2 was their reserves tightened up in the hostile AT&T Center. This time around, expect players like Barbosa (0 of 7 for 0 points Game 2) & Diaw (4 of 8 just 9 points) to really step up in the friendly confines of home. Stoudemire, Nash, and O'Neal couldn't have played much better, and if they can get some consistent production off the bench, they can win this game going away. Bottom line, look for the Suns to step up to the plate and deliver in this "must-win" situation at home tonight against the Spurs. Go down 0-3 to a team like San Antonio and you might as well start making vacation plans, and the Suns know this... Expect their most spirited effort of the season tonight. Take Phoenix comfortably over San Antonio in Game 3 of this Western Conference Playoffs First Round series.
Karl Garrett
2♦ SPURS / SUNS OVER
Thus far, the first two games of this playoff series with the Suns have both easily eclipsed the posted price. That is kind of unusual, as during the regular season, the team's played UNDER in all four meetings. Dating back to the regular season, San Antonio has played OVER the total now in 5 straight games, while Phoenix has played HIGH in 4 of their last 7 games. For the year at home, the Suns have gone OVER in 22 of their 43 games, and with Phoenix trailing 2-0, look for the Suns to try an force an uptempo which is better-suited for them to get a "W" tonight. Faster pace = more points, and I am calling for our third straight OVER in the series.
Alex Smart
LA DODGERS -139
The Rockies starting pitcher Ubaldo Jimenez tonight has got the tools to be a major contributor in his teams pitching rotation , but his vast inexperience, continues to hinder him. He has a lot of maturing to do, and I expect it will continually come back to torch him, until he gets the innings he needs to be a force in the big show. He gave up 5 walks last time out, in just over 5 innings of work, and last year when he faced the Dodgers here in Chez Ravine, the righty got roughed up 5 runs in 4 innings, and I will not be surprised by a repeat performance. Hiroki Kuroda , the Dodgers hurler , has been very consistent in 3 outings , and when hes been hit hard, pulls up his sleeves, an gets tougher, stranding base runners in key spots. Unlike Jiminez, this guy, is very mature, and calm under pressure. Bottom line: Im leaning on the Dodgers to end a 8 game losing streak in this series, against a Colorado team , that looks like their suffering a World Series hang over, with a below 500 record, and offense that ranks them 10th in the NL, and a pitching staff that ranks 12th in ERA average.
LT Profits
NEW YORK RANGERS +130
We picked the New York Rangers to reach the Stanley Cup Finals before these playoffs started, so for our prediction to hold true, they have to beat the Pittsburgh Penguins at least once on the road in this series. Well, there is no time like the present. The Rangers have allowed the fewest goals in the Eastern Conference this season, permitting just 2.32 goals per game. They have taken a page out of the rival New Jersey Devils? book this year, becoming more defensive oriented and playing a neutral zone trap, with any offensive opportunities being generated by that defense. Sure, the end result is that they are only scoring 2.60 goals per game themselves, but that is fine when you allow two goals or less a majority of the time. It certainly helps to have Henrik Lundqvist and his 2.24 GAA and .913 save percentage between the pipes. Now the Penguins are the two seed in the East, but they actually lost the season series to the Rangers 5-3 this year. Furthermore, while Pittsburgh averaged 3.00 goals per game vs. the entire league, they were stifled by the Rangers trap, averaging just a total of 17 goals in the eight meetings. They were held to two goals or less in five of those encounters and to exactly three goals in two others. Finally, the Rangers have been great underdogs lately, going a lucrative 8-3 the last 11 times they have been cast in this role. Look for their defense to lead them to another upset win here.
DALLAS MAVERICKS -5
Well, all three teams that were down 0-2 in their respective series have all won and covered easily in Game 3 so far this season, and we look for the Dallas Mavericks to continue that pattern tonight vs. the New Orleans Hornets. Desperation is usually a great motivator in the NBA Playoffs, and teams returning home down 0-2 have traditionally done very well. The Mavericks have been a great home team all year going 34-7 straight up in this building, and while they are just 17-20-4 against the spread here, that is usually because they are asked to cover much bigger spreads than this one. The fact is that their average home winning margin of +8.9 points would be more than good enough to cover this number. Now the Hornets may be the best road team in the NBA, as they were an amazing 26-15 SU 24-15-2 ATS away from home. However, they had no success in two visits to Dallas this season, losing by 13 and nine points respectively while failing to cover on either occasion. In fact, the home team is now 6-0 both SU and ATS in the last six head-to-head meetings between these clubs. Thus, we look for a rather comfortable Dallas victory tonight as the Mavericks get themselves back in this series.
Jimmy The Moose
NEW YORK YANKEES
Prior to last night game the Yankees had won 3 straight. New York is 6-2 in their last 8 games as a favorite. In their last 16 road games vs. a team with a losing home record the Yankees are 13-3. New York sends Pettite to the mound and he's 3-1 on the year with a 2.45 ERA. The Yankees are 9-1 in his last 10 road starts. Cleveland counters with 0-2 Paul Byrd. The Indians are 0-4 in his 4 starts this season. Cleveland has lost 6 of their last 8 home games. The Yankees are 9-3 in the last 12 meetings between the clubs. Play on the New York Yankees
Vegas Experts
DETROIT PISTONS
The Pistons still have not forgotten their Game One meltdown. Keep in mind that they've outscored the Sixers by 30 points in the first half of Games One and Two, so Philly is lucky to be even at this point. Detroit has won five of six here in the City of Brotherly Love and can hang its hat on a 16-7 pointspread mark if coming off a double-digit win at home.
