DAVE MALINSKY
Today?s Free Pick
GAME: St. Louis @ Milwaukee Brewers May 9, 2008 8:05PM
SPORT: Major League Baseball Picks
PICK: over
Offered at: 9 Belmont
REASON FOR PICK: 4* ST. LOUIS/MILWAUKEE Over
It was not quite like Christmas morning, but the market action on this one had us waking up to something we enjoyed unwrapping - the early 9.5?s have not only gone to 9, but also to where we can play this Over at low juice. We can thank the pitching forms for that, and their inability to truly measure Todd Wellemeyer and Manny Parra. So let?s get to work.
Wellemeyer sports what appears to be a solid 3-1/4.07, but we have little faith in his ability to maintain that level. We are not going out on a limb with that - the Cubs, Marlins and Royals made similar judgment calls over the past three years. We already see signs of him wearing down in his conversion to a starters role, with a 5.29 ERA over his last three starts that was capped by Sunday?s laborious five inning vs. the Cubs, when he needed 95 pitches to merely get that far. The fact that he has not fallen off the table yet means that we are in the right place at the right time (certianly in terms of tonight?s line value).
Meanwhile with Manny Parra it is a case of bucking him while we still can. While a 1-2/5.86 is uninspiring, he has not even been that good, but has benefitted by some good fortune - of the 55 runners that he has put on base in 27.2 innings, only 18 came around to score. That is an extreme rate, particularly for a guy that is nothing special anyway, and while left-handers can often have an early advantage on opponents getting their first look, he does not even have that going for him here - this will already be the third go-round vs. the Cardinals, who have scored six runs on 14 hits and seven walks over nine innings (note the high strand rate in those games as well). And behind Parra the options are not good for Ned Yost, who is still trying to find some bullpen combinations that can work.
