SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA PLAYOFFS
WESTERN CONFERENCE FINALS
(3) San Antonio (8-5, 7-5-1 ATS) at (1) Los Angeles (9-2, 7-3-1 ATS)
Two days after rallying from a 20-point second-half deficit to win Game 1 of the Western Conference finals, the Lakers return to Staples Center hoping to making things easier on themselves when they host the defending NBA champion Spurs in Game 2 of this best-of-7 set.
Los Angeles trailed by 20 points midway through the third quarter on Wednesday, but caught fire from there, outscoring San Antonio 44-20 down the stretch, including 24-13 in the fourth quarter, to pull out an 89-85 victory. The Lakers have now won 13 straight home games, including all six in the playoffs. The only negative: They failed to cash as a 7?-point chalk in Game 1, falling to 1-3-1 ATS in their last five contests, including consecutive non-covers at Staples Center.
Kobe Bryant paced the Lakers with 27 points, nine assists and five rebounds on Wednesday, but 25 of his 27 points came in the second half as he took just three shots in the first 24 minutes of play. Pau Gasol added 19 points and seven rebounds for L.A., which shot just 43.2 percent from the field.
Not only did San Antonio manage just 13 fourth-quarter points, but it missed 21 of its 24 shot attempts in the quarter, going 1-for-9 from three-point range. On the bright side, Tim Duncan finished with games highs of 30 points and 18 rebounds, while Tony Parker had a double-double with 18 points and 10 assists, but Manu Ginobili (3-for-13, 10 points) was a non-factor for Gregg Popovich?s club.
Wednesday?s victory means the Lakers have a ton of history on their side. They?re 52-7 in playoff series when winning Game 1 of a best-of-7 set, and coach Phil Jackson is 40-0 in his career when his teams open a best-of-7 with a victory. Also, Los Angeles has eliminated the Spurs seven times in the last 10 postseason head-to-head matchups, going 3-0 in conference finals.
Los Angeles now holds a slim 3-2 edge over San Antonio this season, with the home team going 5-0 SU, but the Spurs are 4-1 ATS.
Since the start of the conference semifinals, home teams are now 23-4 SU and 16-10-1 ATS, but underdogs are 2-1 ATS in this round.
Despite Monday?s spread-cover, the Spurs are still in the midst of ATS downturns of 3-8 on the highway, 2-4 as an underdog (all on the road, and all in the playoffs) and 3-5-1 against Pacific Division opponents. The lone positives: San Antonio is 4-1 ATS in its last five on Fridays and is now 13-3 ATS in its last 16 conference finals games, including 6-1 ATS in the last seven.
The Lakers, who had covered in eight straight games before their current 1-3-1 ATS slump, continue to sport positive pointspread streaks of 6-2 at home, 9-1-1 after a SU win, 5-1-1 when playing on one day of rest, 4-1 after a non-cover and 7-3 as a favorite. However, L.A. is just 2-9-1 ATS in its last 12 games against teams from the Southwest Division and 0-4 ATS in its last four conference finals contests.
Wednesday?s game stayed under the total, making the under 7-3 in the last 10 series meetings between these clubs, including 3-1 in the last four at Staples Center. The under is also on streaks for the Spurs of 6-2-1 overall, 5-1 on one day of rest, 14-6-1 as an underdog and 30-14-1 on the road against teams with winning home records.
Conversely, for the Lakers, the over is on runs of 3-1 overall, 14-6 after a non-cover, 38-17 as a favorite of five to 10? points and 11-4 on Fridays.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
NATIONAL LEAGUE
St. Louis (28-21) at L.A. Dodgers (25-21)
Fresh off a three-game home sweep of the Reds, the Dodgers welcome Albert Pujols and the Cardinals to Los Angeles for a three-game series. Struggling right-hander Derek Lowe (2-4, 5.34 ERA) is set to toe the rubber for L.A. against Adam Wainwright (3-2, 3.25).
The Dodgers pounded Cincinnati by a combined score of 15-8 en route to the three-game sweep, and they?re now 6-2 in their last eight games following a five-game losing skid. L.A., which was idle yesterday, is on rolls of 11-5 at Dodger Stadium, 5-0 against the N.L. Central and 10-4 as a chalk.
St. Louis enters this contest after taking two of three in San Diego, including an 11-3 rout on Wednesday. The Cardinals have followed up a 2-8 slump by winning four of their last five. Also, Tony LaRussa?s club is on streaks of 12-4 against winning teams and 6-1 after an off day, but is just 9-19 in its last 28 on Friday, 3-6 in its last nine on the road and 8-20 in its last 28 as a road pup.
St. Louis has owned the Dodgers in recent years, going 37-18 in the last 55 meetings, including 6-2 in their last eight visits to Dodger Stadium. Last year, the team?s split their six contests, with each taking two of three at home.
Lowe is coming off his worst outing of the season, as he yielded seven runs (all earned) on 10 hits in Sunday?s 10-2 interleague loss to the Angeles. Over his last four starts, Lowe is 0-3 with a 9.28 ERA, giving up 22 runs in 21 1/3 innings. That includes a 7-1 home loss to Houston on May 9 when the right-hander got touched up for six runs in 5 1/3 innings, dropping to 2-1 with a 3.70 ERA in four outings this year at Dodger Stadium.
Lowe is 1-4 with a 5.93 ERA in five regular-season starts against the Cardinals, giving up between four and six runs in each of those five contests. Last year, Lowe faced St. Louis twice, winning 9-7 at home (four runs allowed in 5 1/3 innings) and losing 6-1 on the road (five runs allowed, three earned, in six innings).
In his first seven trips to the mound this year, Wainwright recorded six quality starts (at least six innings pitched and three earned runs or less allowed). However, in two outings since then, the young right-hander has gotten rocked for 12 runs (10 earned) on 12 hits in 11 2/3 innings. He lost 8-3 at Milwaukee on May 12, then got a no-decision in the Cardinals? 9-8, 10-inning come-from-behind win over Tampa Bay on Saturday.
The Cardinals are 6-3 in Wainwright?s nine starts this season, but only 1-3 on the road, where the hurler has a 4.00 ERA. Also, Wainwright?s only two career starts against L.A. came last year, and he went 0-2. He gave up eight runs on seven hits in 2 2/3 innings of a 9-7 road loss, then surrendered two runs on six hits in a complete-game 2-1 home defeat.
The over was 4-2 in last year?s six head-to-head battles, including 3-0 in Los Angeles. The over is also 9-3 in the Dodgers? last 12 on Fridays, 11-5 in their last 16 against winning teams and 9-4 in the Cards? last 13 against the N.L. West.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Boston (31-19) at Oakland (25-23)
The streaking Red Sox take a seven-game winning streak to the West Coast to begin a weekend series with the A?s, with knuckleballer Tim Wakefield (3-2, 4.33) set to oppose Oakland?s Rich Harden (2-0, 2.91).
Boston completed a perfect seven-game homestand with Thursday?s 11-8 victory over Kansas City. The Red Sox have averaged exactly seven runs per game during the winning streak, tallying five or more in six of the contests. However, Terry Francona?s squad, which kicks off a 10-game road trip tonight, is only 10-14 away from Beantown in 2008, including a current four-game slide on the highway.
The A?s took Thursday off after pounding the Rays 9-1 on Wednesday, halting a three-game losing skid. Despite Thursday?s win, Oakland is only 3-9 in its last 12. Also, the A?s are 2-9 in their last 11 following an off day, but they?re 7-2 in their last nine against the A.L. East, 37-15 in Harden?s last 52 starts overall and 39-14 in Harden?s last 53 as a chalk.
These teams opened the 2008 season against each other in Tokyo, splitting a pair of games. A week later, they resumed their series in Oakland, with Boston winning both contests by scores of 2-1 and 5-0. Going back to last year, the Red Sox are on a 6-1 roll against the A?s.
Wakefield lasted just 5 1/3 innings against the Brewers on Saturday, giving up three runs on six hits, getting a no-decision in Boston?s 7-6 victory. The veteran right-hander has allowed three runs or fewer in seven of his nine starts, however he?s just 1-1 with a 4.40 ERA in five road games.
Wakefield is 9-5 with a 4.03 ERA in 35 appearances (24 starts) against the A?s. Going back to 2003, he?s faced Oakland five times, giving up three earned runs or fewer and pitching at least six innings in all five, but Boston is just 3-2 in those contests (0-2 in Oakland).
Making just his second start since a five-week stint on the disabled list, Harden was sensational on Saturday at Atlanta, yielding just a run on four hits and a walk over seven innings, striking out eight in a 5-4 victory.
Harden?s first two starts of the season came against the Red Sox, one in Japan and one at home. He gave up a combined one run and seven hits on seven walks with 15 strikeouts in 11 innings, winning 5-1 in Japan and getting a no-decision in a 5-0 loss at home. In his two other career appearances against the Sox, Harden got blasted for 15 runs in 7 2/3 innings, losing both games at Fenway Park.
The under is 43-18-5 in Wakefield?s last 66 road starts, 13-3-1 in his last 17 as an underdog, 6-0 in his last six starts in Oakland and 4-1 in Harden?s last five outings at home.
The under also is 6-2-1 in the last nine series meetings between these clubs, 6-1 in the last seven battles in Oakland and 11-5-2 in the A?s last 18 overall. However, the over is 4-1-1 in Boston?s last six on the highway.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON and UNDER
