THE SPORTS ADVISORS
MLB
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Florida (30-22) at Philadelphia (31-24)
The Marlins will send left-hander Mark Hendrickson (7-2, 4.14 ERA) to the mound at Citizens Bank Park in the opener of a three-game weekend set against the Phillies, who will counter with struggling Brett Myers (2-6, 5.79) in a battle between the top two teams in the N.L. East.
Florida comes into this series having dropped two in a row against the New York Mets, including a 7-6, 12-inning setback Wednesday night. The Marlins, who opened the three-game series against the Mets with a 7-3 win, are still 6-3 in their last nine games. They sit in first place in the East, a half-game ahead of the Phillies.
Philadelphia, meanwhile, is coming off a three-game home sweep against Colorado, posting a 6-1 rout Wednesday before joining Florida in taking Thursday off. The Phillies, outscored the Rockies 33-10 in the three victories, and they have now won four in a row ? starting with a 15-6 rout at Houston on Sunday.
This is the first series of the season between these division rivals. They split the 18 meetings in 2007, but the Phillies went 6-3 at home and are 12-4 in the last 16 head-to-head contests at Citizens Bank Park. However, Philly is 0-4 in Myers? last four starts against the Marlins.
Hendrickson is 3-1 with one no-decision in his last five outings, and the Marlins are 8-2 in games he?s started. On Sunday against San Francisco, he got roughed up a bit, allowing five runs on nine hits in five innings, but he got the win as Florida pounded out an 8-6 victory.
The 6-foot-9-inch Hendrickson is 2-1 with a 3.46 ERA on the road this year, but he?s 0-1 with an inflated 12.60 ERA in two career appearances (one start) against Philadelphia ? both last year while he was with the Dodgers, and primarily due to him allowing seven runs on 11 hits in just three innings of a 15-3 blowout in L.A.
Myers has gone more than six weeks without a win, going 0-5 with two no-decisions in his last seven starts, and the Phillies have lost six in a row when he takes the ball. On Saturday at Houston, the right-hander allowed four runs on eight hits in six innings in a 4-3 loss for his fourth straight setback.
Myers is 2-1 with a 4.31 ERA at home this season, and he?s 5-7 with a 5.01 ERA in 24 career appearances (18 starts) against the Marlins. Last year, he went 0-2 with a 10.13 ERA in seven appearances (two starts) against Florida, allowing 12 runs on 20 hits in 10 2/3 innings.
The Marlins have notched five straight wins against right-handers and are on runs of 13-3 against winning teams, 9-3 after an off day, 15-6 in series openers and 12-5 against the National League East. On the negative side, the Marlins are on a 1-5 skid on the highway.
The Phillies have taken four in a row against left-handers and are 6-1 at home against lefties, 9-2 in Friday contests, 29-10 in series openers and 5-2 against the N.L. East. However, Philly is 3-13 in Myers? last 16 starts overall, 3-10 in his last 13 at home and 2-14 in his last 16 within the division.
The over is on myriad runs for the Marlins, including 5-0-1 overall, 6-1-2 on the highway, 5-1 following a loss, 5-1 in series openers, 24-9-2 on Friday, 17-8-3 after an off day and a lengthy 58-26-8 in Florida?s last 92 division contests. However, the under is 9-0 in the Marlins? last nine against winning teams. For Philadelphia, the over is on an 11-2 tear in series openers and is 5-1 on Friday, 4-1 against lefties and 9-3-1 following a win, though the under is 6-2 in its last eight against N.L. East foes.
Finally, the over is 35-16-2 in the last 53 series clashes between these two, though four of the last five meetings in Philly have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Chicago White Sox (30-23) at Tampa Bay (32-22)
Jose Contreras (5-3, 3.06 ERA) takes the ball for the White Sox when they face James Shields (4-3, 3.37) and the Rays in the second game of a four-game series at Tropicana Field.
Chicago posted a 5-1 victory in the opener Thursday night, improving to 12-3 in its last 15 games, including 8-1 on the highway. Meanwhile, despite Thursday?s setback, Tampa Bay is also playing great ball, having gone 14-6 in its last 20 games overall, including 11-3 at the Trop. Going back further, the Rays have won 17 of their last 20 at home.
Chicago has won eight of the last nine games against the Rays, posting a 7-1 mark at Tampa during that span.
The White Sox are 4-0 in Contreras? last four outings. The righty has won three of his last four, getting a no-decision in a 3-2 home win against the Los Angeles Angels on Sunday. In that contest, Contreras allowed just two runs on three hits in eight innings, with no walks and 10 strikeouts.
Contreras is 3-1 with a 2.91 ERA on the road this season, and he?s a perfect 5-0 with a 2.89 ERA in eight career appearances (seven starts) against Tampa Bay.
Shields hasn?t notched a win in three weeks, going 0-1 with two no-decisions, but the Rays won those two games. On Sunday, the Rays? ace allowed four runs on eight hits in eight innings, with Tampa earning a walk-off 5-4 home win over Baltimore. It was the fourth straight start that Shields went beyond seven innings ? that includes his most recent win, a 2-0 gem at home against the Angels in which he threw a one-hit complete game May 9.
Shields is 3-1 with a solid 1.75 ERA in six home starts this season, but he?s 0-1 with a 5.79 ERA in two career efforts versus Chicago ? both coming last year, when he allowed nine runs on 19 hits in 14 total innings as the Rays lost both games.
The White Sox are 7-1 in their last eight games as an underdog, 8-3 in their last 11 Friday contests and 6-1 in Contreras? last seven road starts. On the flip side, Chicago is in ruts of 1-4 against the A.L. East, 4-9 in the second game of a series and 3-9 with Contreras throwing against A.L. East foes.
The Rays sport several positive streaks, including 8-1 at home against winning teams, 19-8 as a home chalk, 16-5 against right-handers, 9-4 in Game 2 of a series and 4-1 in Friday outings. With Shields on the mound, Tampa sports streaks of 6-0 at home against winning teams, 9-1 at home overall and 10-2 as a favorite.
The under is 6-0 in Contreras? last six starts overall, 4-0 in his last four on the highway, 4-1 in his last five versus the A.L. East and 10-4-1 in his last 15 against winning teams. Also, the under is 6-2 in Shields? last eight starts against the A.L. Central.
The under for the White Sox is on streaks of 21-9 overall, 12-4 as an underdog, 9-0 on artificial turf, 6-0 against the A.L. East and 16-7 against right-handed starters, but the over is 4-1 in its last five roadies. For the Rays, the under runs include 8-3 at home against winning teams, 8-3-1 against the A.L. Central and 12-5 in Game 2 of a series.
Finally, the under is 8-1 in the last nine series meetings between these two, including 7-1 in the last eight clashes at Tropicana Field.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
(1) Boston (11-8, 7-12 ATS) at (2) Detroit (10-6, 10-6 ATS)
The Celtics, who held on to take Game 5 at home for a 3-2 series lead, aim to grab a spot in the NBA Finals for the first time since 1987 when they travel to the Palace at Auburn Hills to battle the Pistons, who hope to stave off elimination and force a Game 7 back in Boston.
Boston blew almost all of a 13-point fourth-quarter lead Wednesday night, hanging on for a 106-102 victory, but failing to cash as a six-point home chalk. There was finally a Ray Allen sighting, as the Celtics? shooting guard poured in 29 points, going 5 of 6 from 3-point range and hitting a late bucket that helped stave off Detroit?s rally.
Kevin Garnett (33 points) and Paul Pierce (16) gave Boston?s ?Big Three? a total of 78 points, one game after the trio managed just 43 points in a Game 4 loss in Detroit. Kendrick Perkins added a surprising double-double of 18 points and 16 rebounds for the Celtics, while Chauncey Billups and Richard Hamilton paced the Pistons with 26 and 25 points, respectively.
Despite Wednesday?s SU win, the Celts continue to be a bad bet, as they are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games. The Pistons, meanwhile are 14-6 SU and ATS in their past 20 starts going back to the regular season.
Boston is 5-3 SU this season against Detroit, but the two teams have split the cash in those eight meetings, with the Pistons? cover in Game 5, halting a run in which the straight-up winner had cashed in seven consecutive meetings. The road team is on a 10-3 ATS tear in the last 13 clashes between these two, and the underdog has cashed in 13 of the last 18 meetings.
The Celtics are on ATS streaks of 41-18 as a road underdog, 6-1 as an underdog of five to 10? points and 36-15-1 after putting up more than 100 points in a game. However, Boston is mired in pointspread funks of 1-7 in roadies, 2-8 on one day of rest, 1-4 as an underdog, 1-4 after a SU win, 2-7 in conference finals games, 2-5 after a non-cover and 2-5 as a playoff ?dog of five to 10? points.
The Pistons are on an 8-2 ATS run on one day of rest and are on additional positive ATS runs of 6-0 after a SU loss, 6-2 as a chalk, 14-5 at the Palace, 10-4 as a home favorite of five to 10? points, 16-7 on Friday and 9-4 against winning teams. On the negative side, Detroit is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 conference finals games and 0-4 ATS in its last four after allowing more than 100 points.
Wednesday?s game sailed over the posted price of 173?, slightly cooling a red-hot ?under? streak in this rivalry. Still, the under is 10-3 in the last 13 battles (3-2 in this playoff series) and 5-1 in the last six battles in Detroit (3-0 ?under? in Motown this season).
Furthermore, for Boston, the under is on runs of 4-0 on the highway, 9-2 after allowing more than 100 points, 8-2 as a road pup of five to 10? points, 7-3 in the conference finals and 19-9 against the Central Division. For Detroit, the under is 16-5 as a favorite, 5-1 as a playoff chalk, 8-1 after scoring more than 100 points and after allowing more than 100 points, 4-1 at home, 7-2 against winning teams and 19-7-1 in the conference finals.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
