Friday Service Plays 6/27/08
- Thread starter MLBKING
- Start date
- Apr 7, 2008
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MLB
Write-up
Friday, June 27
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AL teams were 8-1 yesterday, are just killing the NL 124-84 this year. Over is 75-83-9 since over last two weeks in interleague.
Hot Pitchers
-- Florida won last three Nolasco starts, scoring 20 runs.
-- Dempster is 2-1, 1.64 in his last three starts, but Cubs are 1-4 in his last five road outings.
-- Thompson three five shutout innings at Bronx in his debut on Saturday, in game Reds later won 6-0. Sabathia is 2-0, 1.50 in his last three starts.
-- Jurrjens is 1-0, 1.98 in his last couple starts. Toronto won four of last five McGowan home starts.
-- Pelfrey is 2-0, 2.76 in his last five starts.
-- RHernandez was 6-3, 3.72 in 15 starts at AAA; he's made
-- Pineiro has 2.37 RA in his last three starts, but St Louis lost his last five outings, scoring total of 13 runs. Meche is 2-0, 2.84 in his last three starts.
-- McClung is 3-1, 2.92 in his last four starts. Twins won five of last six Blackburn home starts.
-- Eveland has 2.37 RA in his last three starts.
-- Park is 0-0, 3.00 in two starts this season. Angels won six of Saunders' seven road outings.
Cold Pitchers
-- Owings is 0-4, 9.24 in his last five starts.
-- Contreras is 0-3, 10.69 in his last three starts.
-- Rockies are 0-8 when Jimenez starts on the road. Bonine has a 5.84 RA in two starts for the Tigers.
-- Barthmeier makes MLB debut; he was 2-1, 2.84 in five starts for AAA Indianapolis. Kazmir is 0-2, 3.71 in last three starts.
-- Martinez has 6.93 RA in five starts this season. Giese lost his first start 6-0 to Reds (three runs in 6.2 IP). Ponson had an RA of under 4.00 for Texas, but was such a jerk, they cut him.
-- OPerez is 1-2, 6.52 in his last four starts. Cabrera is 0-2, 6.31 in his last six starts.
-- Matsuzaka has 10.97 RA in his last three starts.
-- Phillies lost last five Myers road starts. Gabbard is 1-3, 9.00 in his last five starts.
-- Correia is 0-5, 6.75 in his last five starts.
-- Wolf is 0-2, 9.00 in his last two starts, but Padres are 6-2 when Wolf starts at Petco. Mariners lost five of Washburn's last six starts on foreign soil.
Hot Teams
-- White Sox are 16-4 in their last twenty home games.
-- Tigers won nine of their last twelve home games.
-- Rays won four of their last five games. Pirates are 11-6 in their last seventeen home games.
-- Bronx won five of its last six road games; they've won six of their last nine home contests. .
-- Orioles won nine of last eleven road series openers.
-- Rangers won three of last four home games.
-- Red Sox won four of last five road games.
-- Royals won their last five games, scoring 35 runs.
-- Brewers won four of their last five games.
-- Oakland is 8-4 in its last twelve games. Giants are 11-5 in their last sixteen road games.
-- Twins won their last nine games, allowing total of 19 runs.
-- Angels won 12 of their last 15 road games.
Cold Teams
-- Marlins lost their last four games, allowing 34 runs. Arizona lost five of its last six games.
-- Cubs are 11-18 in their last 29 road games.
-- Reds lost eight of their last eleven games. Indians lost six of their last nine games.
-- Rockies lost last four games, scoring total of ten runs.
-- Blue Jays lost eight of their last eleven games. Braves lost 20 of their last 27 road games.
-- Mets are 2-6 in game following their last eight wins.
-- Nationals lost four of their last five games.
-- Phillies lost seven of eight, nine of last eleven games.
-- Astros lost eight of their last eleven home games.
-- Cardinals are 3-6 in their last nine games.
-- Padres lost five in row, nine of their last ten games. Mariners are 4-8 in last 12 games.
-- Dodgers are 4-8 in their last dozen home games.
Totals
-- Over is 6-1-1 in last eight Florida games.
-- Six of last eight Cub games went over the total.
-- Over is 8-4 in last dozen Indian home games.
-- Under is 5-2-1 in Colorado's last eight road games.
-- Under is 7-2 in Braves' last nine road games.
-- Over is 10-2 in Pittsburgh's last dozen games.
-- Last four Bronx road games went over the total; six of their last seven home games stayed under.
-- Six of last seven Oriole road games went over the total.
-- Under is 5-0-1 in last six Houston games.
-- Under is 10-2 in Phillies' last twelve road games.
-- Six of last nine Cardinal games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last eight Milwaukee road games stayed under total.
-- Four of last five Giant road games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 6-1-1 in last eight Seattle games.
-- Last four Dodger games all stayed under the total.
Write-up
Friday, June 27
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AL teams were 8-1 yesterday, are just killing the NL 124-84 this year. Over is 75-83-9 since over last two weeks in interleague.
Hot Pitchers
-- Florida won last three Nolasco starts, scoring 20 runs.
-- Dempster is 2-1, 1.64 in his last three starts, but Cubs are 1-4 in his last five road outings.
-- Thompson three five shutout innings at Bronx in his debut on Saturday, in game Reds later won 6-0. Sabathia is 2-0, 1.50 in his last three starts.
-- Jurrjens is 1-0, 1.98 in his last couple starts. Toronto won four of last five McGowan home starts.
-- Pelfrey is 2-0, 2.76 in his last five starts.
-- RHernandez was 6-3, 3.72 in 15 starts at AAA; he's made
-- Pineiro has 2.37 RA in his last three starts, but St Louis lost his last five outings, scoring total of 13 runs. Meche is 2-0, 2.84 in his last three starts.
-- McClung is 3-1, 2.92 in his last four starts. Twins won five of last six Blackburn home starts.
-- Eveland has 2.37 RA in his last three starts.
-- Park is 0-0, 3.00 in two starts this season. Angels won six of Saunders' seven road outings.
Cold Pitchers
-- Owings is 0-4, 9.24 in his last five starts.
-- Contreras is 0-3, 10.69 in his last three starts.
-- Rockies are 0-8 when Jimenez starts on the road. Bonine has a 5.84 RA in two starts for the Tigers.
-- Barthmeier makes MLB debut; he was 2-1, 2.84 in five starts for AAA Indianapolis. Kazmir is 0-2, 3.71 in last three starts.
-- Martinez has 6.93 RA in five starts this season. Giese lost his first start 6-0 to Reds (three runs in 6.2 IP). Ponson had an RA of under 4.00 for Texas, but was such a jerk, they cut him.
-- OPerez is 1-2, 6.52 in his last four starts. Cabrera is 0-2, 6.31 in his last six starts.
-- Matsuzaka has 10.97 RA in his last three starts.
-- Phillies lost last five Myers road starts. Gabbard is 1-3, 9.00 in his last five starts.
-- Correia is 0-5, 6.75 in his last five starts.
-- Wolf is 0-2, 9.00 in his last two starts, but Padres are 6-2 when Wolf starts at Petco. Mariners lost five of Washburn's last six starts on foreign soil.
Hot Teams
-- White Sox are 16-4 in their last twenty home games.
-- Tigers won nine of their last twelve home games.
-- Rays won four of their last five games. Pirates are 11-6 in their last seventeen home games.
-- Bronx won five of its last six road games; they've won six of their last nine home contests. .
-- Orioles won nine of last eleven road series openers.
-- Rangers won three of last four home games.
-- Red Sox won four of last five road games.
-- Royals won their last five games, scoring 35 runs.
-- Brewers won four of their last five games.
-- Oakland is 8-4 in its last twelve games. Giants are 11-5 in their last sixteen road games.
-- Twins won their last nine games, allowing total of 19 runs.
-- Angels won 12 of their last 15 road games.
Cold Teams
-- Marlins lost their last four games, allowing 34 runs. Arizona lost five of its last six games.
-- Cubs are 11-18 in their last 29 road games.
-- Reds lost eight of their last eleven games. Indians lost six of their last nine games.
-- Rockies lost last four games, scoring total of ten runs.
-- Blue Jays lost eight of their last eleven games. Braves lost 20 of their last 27 road games.
-- Mets are 2-6 in game following their last eight wins.
-- Nationals lost four of their last five games.
-- Phillies lost seven of eight, nine of last eleven games.
-- Astros lost eight of their last eleven home games.
-- Cardinals are 3-6 in their last nine games.
-- Padres lost five in row, nine of their last ten games. Mariners are 4-8 in last 12 games.
-- Dodgers are 4-8 in their last dozen home games.
Totals
-- Over is 6-1-1 in last eight Florida games.
-- Six of last eight Cub games went over the total.
-- Over is 8-4 in last dozen Indian home games.
-- Under is 5-2-1 in Colorado's last eight road games.
-- Under is 7-2 in Braves' last nine road games.
-- Over is 10-2 in Pittsburgh's last dozen games.
-- Last four Bronx road games went over the total; six of their last seven home games stayed under.
-- Six of last seven Oriole road games went over the total.
-- Under is 5-0-1 in last six Houston games.
-- Under is 10-2 in Phillies' last twelve road games.
-- Six of last nine Cardinal games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last eight Milwaukee road games stayed under total.
-- Four of last five Giant road games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 6-1-1 in last eight Seattle games.
-- Last four Dodger games all stayed under the total.
- Apr 7, 2008
- 4,291
- 0
- 36
Rocketman
FREE PLAY FRIDAY (19-10 last 29)
LA Angels @ LA Dodgers 10:40 PM EST
Play On: 1* LA Angels -125 (Saunders/Park) Listed
LA Dodgers are 13-28 last 3 years in Inter-League play. LA Angels have won 5 of their last 6 games overall. LA Dodgers have lost 4 of their last 6 games overall. LA Angels bullpen has a 2.86 ERA on the road this season. LA Dodgers are scoring only 4.1 runs per game at home this year. Saunders is 11-3 with a 3.03 ERA overall this year and 6-1 with a 1.89 ERA on the road this season. Saunders is 1-0 with a 2.46 ERA overall vs LA Dodgers since 1997 while Park has a 5.75 ERA overall vs LA Angels since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on the LA Angels tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky
FREE PLAY FRIDAY (19-10 last 29)
LA Angels @ LA Dodgers 10:40 PM EST
Play On: 1* LA Angels -125 (Saunders/Park) Listed
LA Dodgers are 13-28 last 3 years in Inter-League play. LA Angels have won 5 of their last 6 games overall. LA Dodgers have lost 4 of their last 6 games overall. LA Angels bullpen has a 2.86 ERA on the road this season. LA Dodgers are scoring only 4.1 runs per game at home this year. Saunders is 11-3 with a 3.03 ERA overall this year and 6-1 with a 1.89 ERA on the road this season. Saunders is 1-0 with a 2.46 ERA overall vs LA Dodgers since 1997 while Park has a 5.75 ERA overall vs LA Angels since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on the LA Angels tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky
- Apr 7, 2008
- 4,291
- 0
- 36
Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider-MLB (off 2-0 Thursday sweep!)
My Las Vegas Insider is on the Tor Blue Jays at 7:05 ET. Bobby Cox hired Cito Gaston as his hitting coach way back in the early 80s, when Cox was managing the Toronto Blue Jays. In 1992, the Braves (managed by Cox) and the Blue Jays (now managed by Gaston) met in the World Series, with the Blue Jays winning. What goes around comes around. Cox has been a longtime stalwart in Atlanta and Gaston, fired years ago by the Blue Jays, is back as their manager. After the Blue Jays had dropped 13 of 17 games (May 31-June 19), manager John Gibbons was let go and Cito Gaston was brought in as the replacement. Toronto has been one of MLB's lowest scoring teams all season (4.18 RPG) and had really been struggling during its 17-game slide, averaging 3.76 per. Gaston knows something about hitting, so maybe he can help. After losing his first two games as Toronto's manager (1-0 and 6-3 at Pittsburgh), Gaston has led the Blue Jays to THREE wins in their last four games, as the team has scored 34 runs (8.5 per). Cox and the Braves visit Gaston and the Blue Jays tonight in the Rogers Centre, as interleague play concludes this weekend. The Braves are far from healthy, as outfielders Mark Kotsay and Matt Diaz are currently on the DL plus SS Yunel Escobar sat out the team's last game (Wednesday at Milwaukee) and his backup (Omar Infante) strained his hamstring during the game and had to leave the contest. Chipper Jones, who is batting .394, is not ready to return to third base but the Braves are hopeful he can DH this weekend. All in all, it's not a very bright picture for a team that owns MLB's biggest home/away dichotomy this year. The Braves are 28-14 (plus-$974) in Atlanta but a pathetic 11-27 (minus-$1,795). That's a difference of 30 games and $2,770 vs the moneyline, a discrepancy larger than any team in MLB in '08. Jair Jurrjens takes the mound for Atlanta and his blister problems look to be over. He struggled in late May, going a three-start stretch in which he allowed 10 ERs over 15 innings (6.00 ERA). He has not allowed an ER in either of his last two starts (13.2 innings) and with Atlanta winning both games, he's 7-2 with a 3.20 ERA on the season (team is 10-5). I like this guy but let's note that his ERA is 1 1/2 runs higher on the road (3.98) than it is at home (2.49), where he's 5-0 in eight starts (team is 8-0). Dustin McGowan goes for the Jays and after doing little in two seasons for Toronto, made 27 starts last year, going a respectable 12-10 with a 4.08 ERA (team was 13-14). He's gone 4-1 with a 4.21 ERA over his last six starts (team is 4-2), giving him a 6-5 mark with a 4.21 ERA on the season in 16 starts (7-9). However, one can't ignore the fact that he's been terrible on the road (2-4 with a 6.19 ERA in 10 starts / team is 3-7), while pitching extremely well here in Toronto (4-1 with a 1.73 ERA in six starts / team is 4-2). That's no surprise as the Blue Jays went 9-4 (3.27 ERA) in his home starts last year, giving Toronto a two-year 13-6 mark in his home starts. Las Vegas Insider on the Tor Blue Jays.
Good Luck...Larry
Scott Spreitzer's "TKO" 20* Friday Night IL BAILOUT BLOWOUT! (TKOs = 2-0!)
I'm laying the price with the Angels on Friday. Joe Saunders is having a great year for Los Angeles. He's been almost un-hittable on the road, posting a 1.89 ERA this season with a sparkling WHIP of 1.09. That's in the American League, where a designated hitter bats. Amazing numbers. Note that he already shut down the Dodgers once this year at home, throwing seven strong innings in a game where the Dodgers got to use a DH. He'll be facing the LA Dodgers tonight at Chavez Ravine, and the pitchers will be batting. Chan Ho Park gets the start for the home team. He's not even a major league caliber starter at this point�just a desperation fill-in. The Halos are 16-7 their last 23 games, and have been dominant so far against the National League. The slumping Dodgers are 11-22 their last 33 games, and just dropped two of three on this field to the White Sox. We're getting a World Championship contender from the superior American League at a cheap price against a slumping opponent representing the woeful NL West. Oh, the Halos are 12-3 in the 15 games Saunders has started this year! The Angels minus the price is the play. Thanks! GL! Scott.
Scott Spreitzer's 25* IL BLOCKBUSTER BLOWOUT! (2nd TY, won 1st)
I'm laying the price with the Twins on Friday. Nick Blackburn has been very tough for opponents to hit this season, particularly at home. The Minnesota hurler has a 2.20 ERA in the Metrodome, with a solid 1.24 WHIP. Against teams getting their first look at him in 2008, his ERA is a very strong 2.96 wherever the games have been played. He may have trouble in the second half of the season once division rivals get their timing down. Right now, the first look teams are struggling badly. Milwaukee didn't see Blackburn when these teams met last week. And Minnesota took two out of three on the road anyway. You may not be aware that red-hot Minnesota has won 11 of its last 12 games, and is 9-2 its last 11 home games. The wagering markets have been very slow to react to the Twins' hot run the past few weeks, and to Blackburn's level of effectiveness all season. We've got the hottest team in baseball, at a short price, throwing a pitcher who's very difficult to hit in a first look. And, we've also got an American League team hosting a National League team in a season where the AL is just dominating Interleague action. The Twins minus the price is the play. Thanks! GL! Scott.
BIG AL's #1 BASEBALL SIDE WINNER; 5-1 RUN LAST 6
At 7:05pm our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Atlanta Braves. Toronto comes into this game against Atlanta off of their third win in their last four games, but more importantly, that win came against the hottest starter in the Major Leagues in Cincinnati's Edinson Volquez. The Jays not only beat Volquez and the Reds, they trounced them by six runs (7-1). Jays outfielder Vernon Wells missed an entire month with an injury, and although Toronto did not seem to benefit much at first from his return in the second week of June, Wells seems to have really found his stride now and has sparked a recent surge in offense for this team that has now scored a total of 34 runs in their last four games and outscored their opponents by 21 runs during this time. At 11-27, the Braves continue to be one of the worst teams in the Majors on the road and things haven't been so great at home either, as Atlanta is coming into this road series off of a six-game homestand in which they only managed to go 3-3 against the likes of Milwaukee and Seattle. Toronto's righthander Dustin McGowan has decent overall numbers at 6-5 with a 4.21 ERA, but he has been lights out in front of the home crowd at 4-1 with a 1.73 ERA when starting at the Rogers Centre in Toronto. Take the Jays. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
BIG AL's FRIDAY BASEBALL TOTALS WINNER; 5-1 LAST 6
At 8:10pm our selection is Milwaukee Brewers and Minnesota Twins 'under' the total. Two teams with almost identical records begin a three game interleague series with two starters who are also very similar. Milwaukee's Seth McClung and Minnesota's Nick Blackburn are both righthanders in their mid-20s with winning records and ERAs right around 3.8 runs per game. McClung in particular has been incredibly effective lately for the Brewers. In his last start on June 21, McClung was practically unhittable for six innings against the Orioles before folding a bit and that is to be expected from a converted reliever who's had only six starts in his last two Major League seasons. McClung has been particularly stingy this season, only giving up 43 hits in almost 55 innings so far, and if the Brewers keep his innings down he should continue to be very productive for them. Blackburn has been more generous in the hits department, but he has only surrendered 15 walks in 93 innings and if you ignore his poor performance on June 6th against the Rangers in which he gave up seven earned runs, Blackburn has not allowed more than two earned runs in any of his other six starts between May 16 and now. Six of Milwaukee's last eight road games have gone under the total. Take the 'under'. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
My Las Vegas Insider is on the Tor Blue Jays at 7:05 ET. Bobby Cox hired Cito Gaston as his hitting coach way back in the early 80s, when Cox was managing the Toronto Blue Jays. In 1992, the Braves (managed by Cox) and the Blue Jays (now managed by Gaston) met in the World Series, with the Blue Jays winning. What goes around comes around. Cox has been a longtime stalwart in Atlanta and Gaston, fired years ago by the Blue Jays, is back as their manager. After the Blue Jays had dropped 13 of 17 games (May 31-June 19), manager John Gibbons was let go and Cito Gaston was brought in as the replacement. Toronto has been one of MLB's lowest scoring teams all season (4.18 RPG) and had really been struggling during its 17-game slide, averaging 3.76 per. Gaston knows something about hitting, so maybe he can help. After losing his first two games as Toronto's manager (1-0 and 6-3 at Pittsburgh), Gaston has led the Blue Jays to THREE wins in their last four games, as the team has scored 34 runs (8.5 per). Cox and the Braves visit Gaston and the Blue Jays tonight in the Rogers Centre, as interleague play concludes this weekend. The Braves are far from healthy, as outfielders Mark Kotsay and Matt Diaz are currently on the DL plus SS Yunel Escobar sat out the team's last game (Wednesday at Milwaukee) and his backup (Omar Infante) strained his hamstring during the game and had to leave the contest. Chipper Jones, who is batting .394, is not ready to return to third base but the Braves are hopeful he can DH this weekend. All in all, it's not a very bright picture for a team that owns MLB's biggest home/away dichotomy this year. The Braves are 28-14 (plus-$974) in Atlanta but a pathetic 11-27 (minus-$1,795). That's a difference of 30 games and $2,770 vs the moneyline, a discrepancy larger than any team in MLB in '08. Jair Jurrjens takes the mound for Atlanta and his blister problems look to be over. He struggled in late May, going a three-start stretch in which he allowed 10 ERs over 15 innings (6.00 ERA). He has not allowed an ER in either of his last two starts (13.2 innings) and with Atlanta winning both games, he's 7-2 with a 3.20 ERA on the season (team is 10-5). I like this guy but let's note that his ERA is 1 1/2 runs higher on the road (3.98) than it is at home (2.49), where he's 5-0 in eight starts (team is 8-0). Dustin McGowan goes for the Jays and after doing little in two seasons for Toronto, made 27 starts last year, going a respectable 12-10 with a 4.08 ERA (team was 13-14). He's gone 4-1 with a 4.21 ERA over his last six starts (team is 4-2), giving him a 6-5 mark with a 4.21 ERA on the season in 16 starts (7-9). However, one can't ignore the fact that he's been terrible on the road (2-4 with a 6.19 ERA in 10 starts / team is 3-7), while pitching extremely well here in Toronto (4-1 with a 1.73 ERA in six starts / team is 4-2). That's no surprise as the Blue Jays went 9-4 (3.27 ERA) in his home starts last year, giving Toronto a two-year 13-6 mark in his home starts. Las Vegas Insider on the Tor Blue Jays.
Good Luck...Larry
Scott Spreitzer's "TKO" 20* Friday Night IL BAILOUT BLOWOUT! (TKOs = 2-0!)
I'm laying the price with the Angels on Friday. Joe Saunders is having a great year for Los Angeles. He's been almost un-hittable on the road, posting a 1.89 ERA this season with a sparkling WHIP of 1.09. That's in the American League, where a designated hitter bats. Amazing numbers. Note that he already shut down the Dodgers once this year at home, throwing seven strong innings in a game where the Dodgers got to use a DH. He'll be facing the LA Dodgers tonight at Chavez Ravine, and the pitchers will be batting. Chan Ho Park gets the start for the home team. He's not even a major league caliber starter at this point�just a desperation fill-in. The Halos are 16-7 their last 23 games, and have been dominant so far against the National League. The slumping Dodgers are 11-22 their last 33 games, and just dropped two of three on this field to the White Sox. We're getting a World Championship contender from the superior American League at a cheap price against a slumping opponent representing the woeful NL West. Oh, the Halos are 12-3 in the 15 games Saunders has started this year! The Angels minus the price is the play. Thanks! GL! Scott.
Scott Spreitzer's 25* IL BLOCKBUSTER BLOWOUT! (2nd TY, won 1st)
I'm laying the price with the Twins on Friday. Nick Blackburn has been very tough for opponents to hit this season, particularly at home. The Minnesota hurler has a 2.20 ERA in the Metrodome, with a solid 1.24 WHIP. Against teams getting their first look at him in 2008, his ERA is a very strong 2.96 wherever the games have been played. He may have trouble in the second half of the season once division rivals get their timing down. Right now, the first look teams are struggling badly. Milwaukee didn't see Blackburn when these teams met last week. And Minnesota took two out of three on the road anyway. You may not be aware that red-hot Minnesota has won 11 of its last 12 games, and is 9-2 its last 11 home games. The wagering markets have been very slow to react to the Twins' hot run the past few weeks, and to Blackburn's level of effectiveness all season. We've got the hottest team in baseball, at a short price, throwing a pitcher who's very difficult to hit in a first look. And, we've also got an American League team hosting a National League team in a season where the AL is just dominating Interleague action. The Twins minus the price is the play. Thanks! GL! Scott.
BIG AL's #1 BASEBALL SIDE WINNER; 5-1 RUN LAST 6
At 7:05pm our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Atlanta Braves. Toronto comes into this game against Atlanta off of their third win in their last four games, but more importantly, that win came against the hottest starter in the Major Leagues in Cincinnati's Edinson Volquez. The Jays not only beat Volquez and the Reds, they trounced them by six runs (7-1). Jays outfielder Vernon Wells missed an entire month with an injury, and although Toronto did not seem to benefit much at first from his return in the second week of June, Wells seems to have really found his stride now and has sparked a recent surge in offense for this team that has now scored a total of 34 runs in their last four games and outscored their opponents by 21 runs during this time. At 11-27, the Braves continue to be one of the worst teams in the Majors on the road and things haven't been so great at home either, as Atlanta is coming into this road series off of a six-game homestand in which they only managed to go 3-3 against the likes of Milwaukee and Seattle. Toronto's righthander Dustin McGowan has decent overall numbers at 6-5 with a 4.21 ERA, but he has been lights out in front of the home crowd at 4-1 with a 1.73 ERA when starting at the Rogers Centre in Toronto. Take the Jays. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
BIG AL's FRIDAY BASEBALL TOTALS WINNER; 5-1 LAST 6
At 8:10pm our selection is Milwaukee Brewers and Minnesota Twins 'under' the total. Two teams with almost identical records begin a three game interleague series with two starters who are also very similar. Milwaukee's Seth McClung and Minnesota's Nick Blackburn are both righthanders in their mid-20s with winning records and ERAs right around 3.8 runs per game. McClung in particular has been incredibly effective lately for the Brewers. In his last start on June 21, McClung was practically unhittable for six innings against the Orioles before folding a bit and that is to be expected from a converted reliever who's had only six starts in his last two Major League seasons. McClung has been particularly stingy this season, only giving up 43 hits in almost 55 innings so far, and if the Brewers keep his innings down he should continue to be very productive for them. Blackburn has been more generous in the hits department, but he has only surrendered 15 walks in 93 innings and if you ignore his poor performance on June 6th against the Rangers in which he gave up seven earned runs, Blackburn has not allowed more than two earned runs in any of his other six starts between May 16 and now. Six of Milwaukee's last eight road games have gone under the total. Take the 'under'. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
- Apr 7, 2008
- 4,291
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- 36
THE SPORTS ADVISORS
INTERLEAGUE
N.Y. Mets (38-39) vs. N.Y. Yankees (42-36)
The Mets and Yankees kick off a four-game interleague series with a unique split-stadium doubleheader. Game 1 is scheduled for this afternoon at Yankee Stadium, with rookie Dan Giese (1-2, 0.64 ERA) set to oppose the Mets? Mike Pelfrey (4-6, 4.30). In the nightcap at Shea Stadium, Pedro Martinez (2-1, 6.57) is scheduled to match up against newly acquired Yankee Sidney Ponson (4-1, 3.88)
The Mets, who were idle on Friday, are coming off Thursday?s 8-2 home win over Seattle. The Mets have are a middling 8-6 in their last 14 games. On the bright side, they?ve won 10 of their last 14 interleague games. Also, they swept a rain-shortened two-game series at Yankee Stadium six weeks ago, winning the two contests by a combined score of 18-6.
The Yankees, whose series finale at Pittsburgh on Thursday was postponed because of rain, have followed a seven-game winning streak by losing three of their last five. Despite the recent inconsistency, Joe Girardi?s club is still on a 22-11 overall run, going 13-5 at home during this run (9-6 on the road). Also, the Bronx Bombers have won eight of their last 11 interleague games overall and 40 of their last 54 interleague home games.
Giese made his first big-league start on Saturday against the Reds, allowing three unearned runs on four hits over 6 2/3 innings, losing 6-0. Including relief appearances, the right-hander has allowed four runs (one earned) on 10 hits and one walk in 14 innings ? with 13 of those innings coming at home.
The Mets are 4-1 in Pelfrey?s last five starts overall, including 4-0 as an underdog. During this five-game stretch, the right-hander has given up two runs or fewer four times. On Sunday at Colorado, he scattered three hits and five walks over 5 2/3 scoreless innings of a 3-1 road win. Pelfrey is 2-2 with a 6.25 ERA on the road in 2008.
Ponson, who was acquired from Minnesota last week, hasn?t pitched since June 4, when he allowed six runs (two earned) on eight hits in four innings, losing 15-9. The veteran right-hander has just one quality start in his last six outings.
Martinez gave up a season-high six runs on nine hits in just 4 1/3 innings in Sunday?s 7-1 loss at Colorado. Four of the Martinez?s five starts have come on the highway, but the one home start was a gem: two runs (one earned) allowed in six innings of a 4-2 win over Texas. Since signing with the Mets, Martinez has faced the Yankees three times, giving up just three runs in 22 innings, but the Mets have lost two of the three contests.
The over is 4-0 in the last four series meetings overall and 4-0 in the last four clashes at Shea Stadium. Also, the over is 5-2 in Martinez?s last seven starts against the Yankees, 7-0 in Ponson?s last seven starts overall (3-0 on the road), and 4-1-3 in the Mets? last eight interleague games.
ATS ADVANTAGE ? GAME 1: OVER
ATS ADVANTAGE ? GAME 2:N.Y. METS and OVER
Chicago Cubs (49-30) at Chicago White Sox (43-35)
The Cubs? Ryan Dempster (9-2, 2.63) looks to shut down the ChiSox for the second time in five days when he squares off against Jose Contreras (6-6, 3.96) as these rivals open a weekend set at U.S. Cellular Field.
The Cubs swept a three-game series from their rivals to the south last weekend, winning the three contests at Wrigley Field by a combined score of 22-11. However, Lou Piniella?s team fell flat after the sweep, losing two of three at home to the Orioles, including Thursday?s 11-4 defeat. The Cubs are just 16-20 on the road this year, compared with 33-10 at home. However, they are still 20-9 in their last 29 overall.
After their debacle at Wrigley Field, the White Sox traveled west and took two of three from the Dodgers, capped off by Thursday?s 2-0 victory. Ozzie Guillen?s club is 24-11 at home this season, including 20-6 in the last 26.
Going back to last season?s six interleague matchups, the Cubs are on an 8-1 roll against the White Sox, including sweeping all three games at U.S. Cellular a year ago.
Dempster dominated the Sox in Sunday?s 7-1 victory in the series finale, scattering 10 hits and the one run over eight innings. The right-hander is 0-2 on the road despite a 2.48 ERA, with the Cubs losing four his six starts on the highway.
Contreras got rocked for nine runs (all earned) on 10 hits (three home runs) in just 3 1/3 innings in Saturday?s 11-7 loss to the Cubs at Wrigley Field. The White Sox are 0-4 in his last four starts against the Cubs. Also, at home this year, the veteran righty is 3-3 with a 3.04 ERA
The under is 7-1 in the last eight head-to-head meetings at U.S. Cellular Field, 5-1 in the last six clashes overall, 7-1 in Dempster?s last eight starts overall (3-0 last three) and 11-4 in Contreras? 15 starts this year (6-1 at home). Also the under is on runs of 4-0 for the White Sox overall, 9-4-1 for the Cubs in interleague road games, 36-18-5 for the Cubs against right-handed starters and 14-4-2 for the Cubs on Friday
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
L.A. Angels (48-31) at L.A. Dodgers (36-42)
Joe Saunders (11-3, 3.03) goes for his major league-leading 12th victory of the season when he leads the Angels into Dodger Stadium for a three-game Freeway Series against the Dodgers. The Halos, who were idle on Thursday, are 5-1 on their current nine-game interleague road trip, the lone blemish being Wednesday?s 5-4 loss at Washington.
The Angels own baseball?s best road record at 26-13, going 10-2 in the last 12 as a visitor. Mike Scioscia?s club is also on hot streaks of 9-2 against the N.L. West, 25-10 in interleague play, 7-1 in interleague road games and 20-9 as a favorite.
The Dodgers fell to 14-39 in their last 53 interleague games (6-9 this season) with Thursday?s 2-0 loss to the White Sox. Additionally, Joe Torre?s squad is in the midst of negative streaks of 18-43 as an underdog, 4-12 as a home ?dog, 4-10 in series-openers, 2-9 against the A.L. West and 0-9 versus southpaws.
The Angels took two of three from the Dodgers in Anaheim in mid-May, and they?re 9-2 in the last 11 series meetings. However, the home team is 16-4 in the past 20 clashes.
With Saunders on the hill, the Halos are on impressive streaks of 26-10 overall, 14-3 when he opens a series, 6-1 when he works on the road, 8-1 when he pitches on Fridays and 4-0 in interleague play. Also, Saunders is 6-1 with a 1.89 ERA on the road this season, including Saturday?s 6-2 win at Philadelphia in his most recent outing.
Park got a no-decision in the Dodgers? 7-2 home loss to Cleveland on Sunday, even though the veteran right-hander yielded just a single run on three hits in five innings. Park is 1-0 with a 0.78 ERA in nine appearances (23 innings) at home this season.
In his first career start against the Dodgers on May 16, Saunders scored a 4-2 victory, allowing two runs on five hits over 7 1/3 innings. Meanwhile, Park is 5-7 with a 5.75 ERA in 18 career starts versus the Halos.
With Park starting, the under is on runs of 31-15-7 overall and 25-9-3 at home. Also, with Saunders on the hill, the under is 6-2 in his last eight overall, 4-1 in his last five as a road favorite and 4-0 in interleague play
Furthermore, the under is on streaks of 5-2 in this rivalry, 4-0 for the Dodgers overall, 13-5 for the Dodgers at home, 41-18-5 for the Angels overall, 25-12-3 for the Angels as a favorite, 18-7-2 for the Angels on the road, 12-4 for the Angels in series openers and 8-1 for the Angels on Fridays.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. ANGELS and UNDER
INTERLEAGUE
N.Y. Mets (38-39) vs. N.Y. Yankees (42-36)
The Mets and Yankees kick off a four-game interleague series with a unique split-stadium doubleheader. Game 1 is scheduled for this afternoon at Yankee Stadium, with rookie Dan Giese (1-2, 0.64 ERA) set to oppose the Mets? Mike Pelfrey (4-6, 4.30). In the nightcap at Shea Stadium, Pedro Martinez (2-1, 6.57) is scheduled to match up against newly acquired Yankee Sidney Ponson (4-1, 3.88)
The Mets, who were idle on Friday, are coming off Thursday?s 8-2 home win over Seattle. The Mets have are a middling 8-6 in their last 14 games. On the bright side, they?ve won 10 of their last 14 interleague games. Also, they swept a rain-shortened two-game series at Yankee Stadium six weeks ago, winning the two contests by a combined score of 18-6.
The Yankees, whose series finale at Pittsburgh on Thursday was postponed because of rain, have followed a seven-game winning streak by losing three of their last five. Despite the recent inconsistency, Joe Girardi?s club is still on a 22-11 overall run, going 13-5 at home during this run (9-6 on the road). Also, the Bronx Bombers have won eight of their last 11 interleague games overall and 40 of their last 54 interleague home games.
Giese made his first big-league start on Saturday against the Reds, allowing three unearned runs on four hits over 6 2/3 innings, losing 6-0. Including relief appearances, the right-hander has allowed four runs (one earned) on 10 hits and one walk in 14 innings ? with 13 of those innings coming at home.
The Mets are 4-1 in Pelfrey?s last five starts overall, including 4-0 as an underdog. During this five-game stretch, the right-hander has given up two runs or fewer four times. On Sunday at Colorado, he scattered three hits and five walks over 5 2/3 scoreless innings of a 3-1 road win. Pelfrey is 2-2 with a 6.25 ERA on the road in 2008.
Ponson, who was acquired from Minnesota last week, hasn?t pitched since June 4, when he allowed six runs (two earned) on eight hits in four innings, losing 15-9. The veteran right-hander has just one quality start in his last six outings.
Martinez gave up a season-high six runs on nine hits in just 4 1/3 innings in Sunday?s 7-1 loss at Colorado. Four of the Martinez?s five starts have come on the highway, but the one home start was a gem: two runs (one earned) allowed in six innings of a 4-2 win over Texas. Since signing with the Mets, Martinez has faced the Yankees three times, giving up just three runs in 22 innings, but the Mets have lost two of the three contests.
The over is 4-0 in the last four series meetings overall and 4-0 in the last four clashes at Shea Stadium. Also, the over is 5-2 in Martinez?s last seven starts against the Yankees, 7-0 in Ponson?s last seven starts overall (3-0 on the road), and 4-1-3 in the Mets? last eight interleague games.
ATS ADVANTAGE ? GAME 1: OVER
ATS ADVANTAGE ? GAME 2:N.Y. METS and OVER
Chicago Cubs (49-30) at Chicago White Sox (43-35)
The Cubs? Ryan Dempster (9-2, 2.63) looks to shut down the ChiSox for the second time in five days when he squares off against Jose Contreras (6-6, 3.96) as these rivals open a weekend set at U.S. Cellular Field.
The Cubs swept a three-game series from their rivals to the south last weekend, winning the three contests at Wrigley Field by a combined score of 22-11. However, Lou Piniella?s team fell flat after the sweep, losing two of three at home to the Orioles, including Thursday?s 11-4 defeat. The Cubs are just 16-20 on the road this year, compared with 33-10 at home. However, they are still 20-9 in their last 29 overall.
After their debacle at Wrigley Field, the White Sox traveled west and took two of three from the Dodgers, capped off by Thursday?s 2-0 victory. Ozzie Guillen?s club is 24-11 at home this season, including 20-6 in the last 26.
Going back to last season?s six interleague matchups, the Cubs are on an 8-1 roll against the White Sox, including sweeping all three games at U.S. Cellular a year ago.
Dempster dominated the Sox in Sunday?s 7-1 victory in the series finale, scattering 10 hits and the one run over eight innings. The right-hander is 0-2 on the road despite a 2.48 ERA, with the Cubs losing four his six starts on the highway.
Contreras got rocked for nine runs (all earned) on 10 hits (three home runs) in just 3 1/3 innings in Saturday?s 11-7 loss to the Cubs at Wrigley Field. The White Sox are 0-4 in his last four starts against the Cubs. Also, at home this year, the veteran righty is 3-3 with a 3.04 ERA
The under is 7-1 in the last eight head-to-head meetings at U.S. Cellular Field, 5-1 in the last six clashes overall, 7-1 in Dempster?s last eight starts overall (3-0 last three) and 11-4 in Contreras? 15 starts this year (6-1 at home). Also the under is on runs of 4-0 for the White Sox overall, 9-4-1 for the Cubs in interleague road games, 36-18-5 for the Cubs against right-handed starters and 14-4-2 for the Cubs on Friday
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
L.A. Angels (48-31) at L.A. Dodgers (36-42)
Joe Saunders (11-3, 3.03) goes for his major league-leading 12th victory of the season when he leads the Angels into Dodger Stadium for a three-game Freeway Series against the Dodgers. The Halos, who were idle on Thursday, are 5-1 on their current nine-game interleague road trip, the lone blemish being Wednesday?s 5-4 loss at Washington.
The Angels own baseball?s best road record at 26-13, going 10-2 in the last 12 as a visitor. Mike Scioscia?s club is also on hot streaks of 9-2 against the N.L. West, 25-10 in interleague play, 7-1 in interleague road games and 20-9 as a favorite.
The Dodgers fell to 14-39 in their last 53 interleague games (6-9 this season) with Thursday?s 2-0 loss to the White Sox. Additionally, Joe Torre?s squad is in the midst of negative streaks of 18-43 as an underdog, 4-12 as a home ?dog, 4-10 in series-openers, 2-9 against the A.L. West and 0-9 versus southpaws.
The Angels took two of three from the Dodgers in Anaheim in mid-May, and they?re 9-2 in the last 11 series meetings. However, the home team is 16-4 in the past 20 clashes.
With Saunders on the hill, the Halos are on impressive streaks of 26-10 overall, 14-3 when he opens a series, 6-1 when he works on the road, 8-1 when he pitches on Fridays and 4-0 in interleague play. Also, Saunders is 6-1 with a 1.89 ERA on the road this season, including Saturday?s 6-2 win at Philadelphia in his most recent outing.
Park got a no-decision in the Dodgers? 7-2 home loss to Cleveland on Sunday, even though the veteran right-hander yielded just a single run on three hits in five innings. Park is 1-0 with a 0.78 ERA in nine appearances (23 innings) at home this season.
In his first career start against the Dodgers on May 16, Saunders scored a 4-2 victory, allowing two runs on five hits over 7 1/3 innings. Meanwhile, Park is 5-7 with a 5.75 ERA in 18 career starts versus the Halos.
With Park starting, the under is on runs of 31-15-7 overall and 25-9-3 at home. Also, with Saunders on the hill, the under is 6-2 in his last eight overall, 4-1 in his last five as a road favorite and 4-0 in interleague play
Furthermore, the under is on streaks of 5-2 in this rivalry, 4-0 for the Dodgers overall, 13-5 for the Dodgers at home, 41-18-5 for the Angels overall, 25-12-3 for the Angels as a favorite, 18-7-2 for the Angels on the road, 12-4 for the Angels in series openers and 8-1 for the Angels on Fridays.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. ANGELS and UNDER
- Apr 7, 2008
- 4,291
- 0
- 36
HONDO
The "V" in Volquez stood for vanquished, not vic tory, last night in Toronto, which means HONDO 's bank roll was reduced to a still muscular 420 kluzewskis.
Tonight, Steely HONDO sings: Ricky, don't lose that game to the Diamondbacks. Ten 10 units on Nolasco and the Marlins.
The "V" in Volquez stood for vanquished, not vic tory, last night in Toronto, which means HONDO 's bank roll was reduced to a still muscular 420 kluzewskis.
Tonight, Steely HONDO sings: Ricky, don't lose that game to the Diamondbacks. Ten 10 units on Nolasco and the Marlins.
- Apr 7, 2008
- 4,291
- 0
- 36
JIMMY THE MOOSE
Game: Atlanta Braves at Toronto Blue Jays Jun 27 2008 7:05PM
Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays
Reason: Atlanta has lost 2 of their last 3 games while the Blue Jays have won 3 of their last 4 games. Atlanta is 19-40 in their last 59 road games. The Braves are 8-21 in their last 29 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Jurrjens is on the mound and the Braves have lost 5 of his last 7 road starts. The Jays are 12-4 in their last 16 interleague home games vs. a right-handed starter. Toronto is 9-3 in their last 12 interleague home games vs. a team with a losing record. Toronto has won the last 4 meetings between the clubs. Atlanta is 1-5 in their last 6 trips to Toronto. Play on the Toronto Blue Jays -.
Game: Atlanta Braves at Toronto Blue Jays Jun 27 2008 7:05PM
Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays
Reason: Atlanta has lost 2 of their last 3 games while the Blue Jays have won 3 of their last 4 games. Atlanta is 19-40 in their last 59 road games. The Braves are 8-21 in their last 29 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Jurrjens is on the mound and the Braves have lost 5 of his last 7 road starts. The Jays are 12-4 in their last 16 interleague home games vs. a right-handed starter. Toronto is 9-3 in their last 12 interleague home games vs. a team with a losing record. Toronto has won the last 4 meetings between the clubs. Atlanta is 1-5 in their last 6 trips to Toronto. Play on the Toronto Blue Jays -.
- Apr 7, 2008
- 4,291
- 0
- 36
Milwaukee Brewers at Minnesota Twins Jun 27 2008 8:10PM
PICK: Minnesota Twins
Your pick will be graded at: -121 5Dimes
EXPERT: David Malinsky
TITLE: Three for the Money
REASON FOR PICK: 4* MINNESOTA over MILWAUKEE
At first the question here was whether or not Seth McClung?s recent 3-1/2.55 run was one of an imposter. This is the same McClung, after all, that will have his 7-11/6.59 of 2005 and 6-12/6.29 of 2006 with Tampa Bay etched forever into editions of the Baseball Encyclopedia. But now we find that we do not have to make a dramatic judgment ourselves - the marketplace has done that for us, and it is to such an extreme that we can politely disagree, while getting excellent value to do so.
How does the above translate into actual baseball logic? A Minnesota team playing the best baseball of anyone in the game right now, is being favored by less than the Metrodome home field advantage in this setting. The market statement is that the Brewers with McClung and an erratic bullpen are a better overall package than the Twins, with a rejuvenated Nick Blackburn on the hill, and one of the best bullpens in the game behind him. That easily gets us in play.
Yes, McClung?s recent run has been solid, including a home win over Minnesota two starts back. But that means that it is a quick second look for a lineup that can now read his offerings much better, and the timing is ideal - control has been the downfall for McClung in his career, and after five walks in his last outing vs. Baltimore, we can believe that issue will be returning to the table again. And now his challenge vs. the Twins also ramps up - the first meeting came on a Sunday afternoon, after Minny had swept the first two games of the series at Miller Park. In a day game following a night game, and with no DH, Joe Mauer did not play against McClung, only coming in later to pinch hit.
While McClung is capable of quickly crashing back to earth, Blackburn is showing that his 6-4/3.68 is for real, particularly the 2.20 from this mound. After getting roughed up against the White Sox on a windy day in Chicago three starts back, his only genuinely bad outing all season, he rebounded to beat Cleveland on the road in this next start, and then worked a sparkler in that 6-1 win over Arizona that brought us back a 4* ticket - he allowed only three hits over seven innings, and did not walk a batter. Those two starts are what lead us to say that his numbers are ?for real? - after the worst outing of the season he showed no lapse in confidence at all, walking only one of the 46 batters he faced in the two ensuing wins. And with that deep and talented bullpen behind him, we are guaranteed a quality arm on the mound for every inning of this one, making this price far too low for the current circumstances - a Milwaukee team that has not played a winning opponent on the road since May 17-18, an ugly 0-3 sweep against the Red Sox in Fenway, is over-valued here.
RECOMMENDED SPORTSBOOKS: BoDog Sportsbook 5Dimes
Milwaukee Brewers
Minnesota Twins OFF
OFF
8.5
-119 -115
8.5
-121 -115
Chicago Cubs at Chicago White Sox Jun 27 2008 4:05PM
PICK: over
Your pick will be graded at: 9 Sportsbook
EXPERT: David Malinsky
TITLE: Three for the Money
REASON FOR PICK: 6* CUBS/WHITE SOX Over
We have cashed two 6* tickets playing the White Sox under in the last three days, and the opening premise was a simple one - they will have drastic offensive swings, literally, based on the conditions at hand, and the oddsmakers are going to have a difficult time dealing with it. Today?s line is an outstanding example. In those last two 6* plays we were dealing with fresh bullpens, and neither a ballpark nor starting pitchers that were conducive to home runs being hit. Yet the opener was ?8? in Los Angeles in the Buerhle/Lowe matchup on Tuesday, before falling to ?7.5?, and there were ?8?s? to first pitch in Danks/Kershaw yesterday. Now we have a huge shift in ballparks; a much tougher offensive opponent; a warm day with the a cross wind that does not hurt our purposes (right to left early, then out to left later in the day); and instead of facing strangers the offenses are each up against a starter that they just saw less than a week ago. And what is the line? 8.5. Once again the market is behind the curve, and we will take full advantage.
With the White Sox it is all about home runs. they are #3 in the Major League?s at producing them, but the overwhelming majority have come here on the South Side. But look how much trouble the marketplace is having distinguishing between the overall offensive punch, and the specifics - 11 of the last 13 White Sox road games have played Under the Total, and 25 of 33. But in the month of June, when the temperatures began to climb, the games here have gone Over at a 9-3-1 clip, and it is easy to see why - in six of those games the Chicago offense topped the total by themselves. We believe that the conditions are ripe for more of the same today.
Jose Contreras took his hot streak about as far as he can at his age, but the wheels have since come off. Over his last three starts it has been a horrendous 0-3/10.12, including a dismal drubbing at Wrigley last weekend when he was raked for nine runs on 10 hits over 3.1 innings, with three of them crossing over those ivy walls. Having allowed 30 hits over 16 innings of those last three starts there is little reason to fear an immediate turnaround, especially against an offense that just saw him, and is well aware of what is in his arsenal.
Meanwhile Ryan Dempster earns legit market respect here off of his 9-2/2.63, and he dominated the White Sox in that 7-1 rout on Sunday night. But there are a couple of keys here. First, every bit of Dempster?s solid showing is in this line, and perhaps more than should be. Yes, he has been good. No, we do not expect him to maintain it. Here are a couple of those keys - of the 127 pitchers that have worked at least 60 innings so far, his difficulty of batters faced checks in at #118. In other words, he has been piling up the stats vs. very weak competition. And on that same list, he is #124 in BABIP (?Batting Average on Balls in Play?). In other words, he has also been very lucky. And in terms of that earlier domination of the Cubs, that came with the DH in effect, and Jim Thome sidelined for most of the game. But the ChiSox still had 10 hits, the high allowed by Dempster this season, including a double by Thome when he was finally able to step in as a pinch hitter.
Now the Sox get Thome in from the start, and also a quick second look. What is that worth? In first meetings against opponents this season, it is a 2.32 ERA and 1.06 WHIP for Dempster. In the four second meetings those numbers go to 3.63 and 1.34, and note that the ERA is saved by five unearned runs over the 22.1 innings. No team has had an immediate back-to-back against him, and now that White Sox get that opportunity. And with Dempster having allowed a home run in each of his last five road starts, he is much more vulnerable here than those All-Star worthy base numbers show.
The bullpens for both teams do not bring the usual edges either, with the opposing hitters getting plenty of looks last week. Scott Linebrink and Bobby Jenks have been outstanding for the White Sox, but each worked yesterday, and now face the tough adjustment of the long plane ride home that segues into this early start. Meanwhile the Cubs had to go deeply into their pen yesterday; do not have Carlos Marmol on the best of form; will not have Scott Eyre at all, a needed lefty option vs. this lineup; and have only been able to get 13 pitches from Kerry Wood since Saturday. The door is open for plenty of runs here, yet we only need to find four from each team and it is mission accomplished.
RECOMMENDED SPORTSBOOKS: BoDog Sportsbook 5Dimes
Chicago Cubs
Chicago White Sox OFF
OFF
9
-117 -120
9
-120 -115
San Francisco Giants at Oakland Athletics Jun 27 2008 10:05PM
PICK: over
Your pick will be graded at: 8 betED
EXPERT: David Malinsky
TITLE: Three for the Money
REASON FOR PICK: 5* SAN FRANCISCO/OAKLAND Over
One of the advantages that even mediocre pitchers get in Inter-League play is that they get a chance to work to batters that have little experience against them, and sometimes the weaker a pitcher is, the more likely he is to pitch above his level - hitters often have a difficult time sitting back and taking pitches that look very hittable. That advantage does not exist here, with the A?s already seeing Kevin Correia, and the Giants facing Dana Eveland, in that series across the Bay two weeks ago. And that makes this Total far too low for a pair of suspect arms.
Correia checks in at 1-5/5.20 for the season, and the idea of making him a starter appears to be a failure. It is partially a case of lacking stamina, but even more-so the fact that there simply is not enough stuff to fool batters on the second or third pass through the lineup in a given game. That was the case against Oakland in the first meeting, when he opened the game well, but by the time the counting was done it was five earned runs over 5.1 innings. And with twice as many walks (4) as strikeouts (2) in the follow-up from that one at Kansas City, there just it not much to fear.
Meanwhile we have written often about Eveland in recent weeks, including cashing both a 5* Over and a 5* Side ticket with Florida in the last game against him. And while it took some late-inning success against the bullpen to break that one open, note how much he struggled through the his part of the game - 12 of the 29 batters that he faced reached base, and he labored to the tune of 103 pitches for 6.1 innings. But he was fortunate to strand 10 of those 12 runners, which keeps his ERA in a solid range, and also creates this value for us. It was similar to his win at San Francisco two starts back, when nine Giants reached base, and only one scored. And three starts back against the Yankees it was 11 of 26 reaching, with only three scoring. The bottom line? The pitching forms may show a guy with a 2.37 ERA over his last three starts, but that came because of baseball roulette, and not strong pitching - stranding 28 of 33 runners in 19 innings is something that does not continue. Now the Giants get a second quick look at a guy with major control issues (18 walks over 23.1 innings of his last four outings), and this time can take full advantage, especially with a bit of a revenge spark from being swept in that earlier series adding some spice.
PICK: Minnesota Twins
Your pick will be graded at: -121 5Dimes
EXPERT: David Malinsky
TITLE: Three for the Money
REASON FOR PICK: 4* MINNESOTA over MILWAUKEE
At first the question here was whether or not Seth McClung?s recent 3-1/2.55 run was one of an imposter. This is the same McClung, after all, that will have his 7-11/6.59 of 2005 and 6-12/6.29 of 2006 with Tampa Bay etched forever into editions of the Baseball Encyclopedia. But now we find that we do not have to make a dramatic judgment ourselves - the marketplace has done that for us, and it is to such an extreme that we can politely disagree, while getting excellent value to do so.
How does the above translate into actual baseball logic? A Minnesota team playing the best baseball of anyone in the game right now, is being favored by less than the Metrodome home field advantage in this setting. The market statement is that the Brewers with McClung and an erratic bullpen are a better overall package than the Twins, with a rejuvenated Nick Blackburn on the hill, and one of the best bullpens in the game behind him. That easily gets us in play.
Yes, McClung?s recent run has been solid, including a home win over Minnesota two starts back. But that means that it is a quick second look for a lineup that can now read his offerings much better, and the timing is ideal - control has been the downfall for McClung in his career, and after five walks in his last outing vs. Baltimore, we can believe that issue will be returning to the table again. And now his challenge vs. the Twins also ramps up - the first meeting came on a Sunday afternoon, after Minny had swept the first two games of the series at Miller Park. In a day game following a night game, and with no DH, Joe Mauer did not play against McClung, only coming in later to pinch hit.
While McClung is capable of quickly crashing back to earth, Blackburn is showing that his 6-4/3.68 is for real, particularly the 2.20 from this mound. After getting roughed up against the White Sox on a windy day in Chicago three starts back, his only genuinely bad outing all season, he rebounded to beat Cleveland on the road in this next start, and then worked a sparkler in that 6-1 win over Arizona that brought us back a 4* ticket - he allowed only three hits over seven innings, and did not walk a batter. Those two starts are what lead us to say that his numbers are ?for real? - after the worst outing of the season he showed no lapse in confidence at all, walking only one of the 46 batters he faced in the two ensuing wins. And with that deep and talented bullpen behind him, we are guaranteed a quality arm on the mound for every inning of this one, making this price far too low for the current circumstances - a Milwaukee team that has not played a winning opponent on the road since May 17-18, an ugly 0-3 sweep against the Red Sox in Fenway, is over-valued here.
RECOMMENDED SPORTSBOOKS: BoDog Sportsbook 5Dimes
Milwaukee Brewers
Minnesota Twins OFF
OFF
8.5
-119 -115
8.5
-121 -115
Chicago Cubs at Chicago White Sox Jun 27 2008 4:05PM
PICK: over
Your pick will be graded at: 9 Sportsbook
EXPERT: David Malinsky
TITLE: Three for the Money
REASON FOR PICK: 6* CUBS/WHITE SOX Over
We have cashed two 6* tickets playing the White Sox under in the last three days, and the opening premise was a simple one - they will have drastic offensive swings, literally, based on the conditions at hand, and the oddsmakers are going to have a difficult time dealing with it. Today?s line is an outstanding example. In those last two 6* plays we were dealing with fresh bullpens, and neither a ballpark nor starting pitchers that were conducive to home runs being hit. Yet the opener was ?8? in Los Angeles in the Buerhle/Lowe matchup on Tuesday, before falling to ?7.5?, and there were ?8?s? to first pitch in Danks/Kershaw yesterday. Now we have a huge shift in ballparks; a much tougher offensive opponent; a warm day with the a cross wind that does not hurt our purposes (right to left early, then out to left later in the day); and instead of facing strangers the offenses are each up against a starter that they just saw less than a week ago. And what is the line? 8.5. Once again the market is behind the curve, and we will take full advantage.
With the White Sox it is all about home runs. they are #3 in the Major League?s at producing them, but the overwhelming majority have come here on the South Side. But look how much trouble the marketplace is having distinguishing between the overall offensive punch, and the specifics - 11 of the last 13 White Sox road games have played Under the Total, and 25 of 33. But in the month of June, when the temperatures began to climb, the games here have gone Over at a 9-3-1 clip, and it is easy to see why - in six of those games the Chicago offense topped the total by themselves. We believe that the conditions are ripe for more of the same today.
Jose Contreras took his hot streak about as far as he can at his age, but the wheels have since come off. Over his last three starts it has been a horrendous 0-3/10.12, including a dismal drubbing at Wrigley last weekend when he was raked for nine runs on 10 hits over 3.1 innings, with three of them crossing over those ivy walls. Having allowed 30 hits over 16 innings of those last three starts there is little reason to fear an immediate turnaround, especially against an offense that just saw him, and is well aware of what is in his arsenal.
Meanwhile Ryan Dempster earns legit market respect here off of his 9-2/2.63, and he dominated the White Sox in that 7-1 rout on Sunday night. But there are a couple of keys here. First, every bit of Dempster?s solid showing is in this line, and perhaps more than should be. Yes, he has been good. No, we do not expect him to maintain it. Here are a couple of those keys - of the 127 pitchers that have worked at least 60 innings so far, his difficulty of batters faced checks in at #118. In other words, he has been piling up the stats vs. very weak competition. And on that same list, he is #124 in BABIP (?Batting Average on Balls in Play?). In other words, he has also been very lucky. And in terms of that earlier domination of the Cubs, that came with the DH in effect, and Jim Thome sidelined for most of the game. But the ChiSox still had 10 hits, the high allowed by Dempster this season, including a double by Thome when he was finally able to step in as a pinch hitter.
Now the Sox get Thome in from the start, and also a quick second look. What is that worth? In first meetings against opponents this season, it is a 2.32 ERA and 1.06 WHIP for Dempster. In the four second meetings those numbers go to 3.63 and 1.34, and note that the ERA is saved by five unearned runs over the 22.1 innings. No team has had an immediate back-to-back against him, and now that White Sox get that opportunity. And with Dempster having allowed a home run in each of his last five road starts, he is much more vulnerable here than those All-Star worthy base numbers show.
The bullpens for both teams do not bring the usual edges either, with the opposing hitters getting plenty of looks last week. Scott Linebrink and Bobby Jenks have been outstanding for the White Sox, but each worked yesterday, and now face the tough adjustment of the long plane ride home that segues into this early start. Meanwhile the Cubs had to go deeply into their pen yesterday; do not have Carlos Marmol on the best of form; will not have Scott Eyre at all, a needed lefty option vs. this lineup; and have only been able to get 13 pitches from Kerry Wood since Saturday. The door is open for plenty of runs here, yet we only need to find four from each team and it is mission accomplished.
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Chicago Cubs
Chicago White Sox OFF
OFF
9
-117 -120
9
-120 -115
San Francisco Giants at Oakland Athletics Jun 27 2008 10:05PM
PICK: over
Your pick will be graded at: 8 betED
EXPERT: David Malinsky
TITLE: Three for the Money
REASON FOR PICK: 5* SAN FRANCISCO/OAKLAND Over
One of the advantages that even mediocre pitchers get in Inter-League play is that they get a chance to work to batters that have little experience against them, and sometimes the weaker a pitcher is, the more likely he is to pitch above his level - hitters often have a difficult time sitting back and taking pitches that look very hittable. That advantage does not exist here, with the A?s already seeing Kevin Correia, and the Giants facing Dana Eveland, in that series across the Bay two weeks ago. And that makes this Total far too low for a pair of suspect arms.
Correia checks in at 1-5/5.20 for the season, and the idea of making him a starter appears to be a failure. It is partially a case of lacking stamina, but even more-so the fact that there simply is not enough stuff to fool batters on the second or third pass through the lineup in a given game. That was the case against Oakland in the first meeting, when he opened the game well, but by the time the counting was done it was five earned runs over 5.1 innings. And with twice as many walks (4) as strikeouts (2) in the follow-up from that one at Kansas City, there just it not much to fear.
Meanwhile we have written often about Eveland in recent weeks, including cashing both a 5* Over and a 5* Side ticket with Florida in the last game against him. And while it took some late-inning success against the bullpen to break that one open, note how much he struggled through the his part of the game - 12 of the 29 batters that he faced reached base, and he labored to the tune of 103 pitches for 6.1 innings. But he was fortunate to strand 10 of those 12 runners, which keeps his ERA in a solid range, and also creates this value for us. It was similar to his win at San Francisco two starts back, when nine Giants reached base, and only one scored. And three starts back against the Yankees it was 11 of 26 reaching, with only three scoring. The bottom line? The pitching forms may show a guy with a 2.37 ERA over his last three starts, but that came because of baseball roulette, and not strong pitching - stranding 28 of 33 runners in 19 innings is something that does not continue. Now the Giants get a second quick look at a guy with major control issues (18 walks over 23.1 innings of his last four outings), and this time can take full advantage, especially with a bit of a revenge spark from being swept in that earlier series adding some spice.
Golden Contender Guaranteed Selections
Date: Friday, June 27, 2008
$34.99 Guaranteed: ON FRIDAY NIGHT ITS THE RELEASE OF A SUPER STRONG TOTALS MOVE IN INTERLEAGUE ACTION. THIS BOMB HAS 5 TOTALS ANGLES THAT ADD UP TO 34-3. BEST OF ALL THIS TOTALS PLAY IS ABSOLUTELY GUARANTEED OR YOU DONT PAY. START THE WEEKEND OFF IN GRAND FASHION WITH THIS SUPER BOMB. THURSDAYS BIG BANGER ON HOUSTON CASHED AND THIS WILL TOO. 6/26/2008
ON FRIDAY NIGHT THE BIG INTERLEAGUE TOTALS PLAY IS ON THE UNDER IN THE ATLANTA-TORONTO-GAME. ROTATION NUMBERS 909/10 AT 7:05 EASTERN.THE BRAVES TAKE TO THE ROAD HERE AND GO UP TO TORONTO TO TAKE ON THE BLUEJAYS. THE BRAVES ARE 2-10 TO THE UNDER IN GAME 1 OF A ROAD SERIES,1-5 UNDER ON ART.TURF THE LAST 3 YEARS,1-8 AS ROAD DOGS PRICED FROM +100/125, 9-28 UNDER ON THE ROAD, 8-25 UNDER VS TEAMS WHO ARE SUB 500,ANS 11-25 UNDER OFF A WIN.LOOKING AT THE PITCHING MATCHUP SHOWS SOLID UNDER ANGLES AS WELL. THE BRAVES SEND OUT JURJENS WHO HAS BEEN A PLEASANT SURPRISE THIS YEAR. IN HIS ROAD TEAM STARTS HE HAS GONE UNDER 6 OF 7 TIMES AND OPPONENTS ARE HITTING JUST .225 AGAINST HIM. FOR THE JAYS ITS DUSTIN MCGOWAN AND HE IS LIGHTS OUT AT HOME WITH A 1.73 ERA. OPPONENTS ARE HITTING JUST .243 AGAINST HIM THIS YEAR,AND IN HIS HOME STARTS THE UNDER HAS CASHED 5 STRAIGHT TIMES. BACK THE UNDER IN THIS GAME. THE CURRENT LINE IS 8.5 BOL GOLDEN CONTENDER
Date: Friday, June 27, 2008
$34.99 Guaranteed: ON FRIDAY NIGHT ITS THE RELEASE OF A SUPER STRONG TOTALS MOVE IN INTERLEAGUE ACTION. THIS BOMB HAS 5 TOTALS ANGLES THAT ADD UP TO 34-3. BEST OF ALL THIS TOTALS PLAY IS ABSOLUTELY GUARANTEED OR YOU DONT PAY. START THE WEEKEND OFF IN GRAND FASHION WITH THIS SUPER BOMB. THURSDAYS BIG BANGER ON HOUSTON CASHED AND THIS WILL TOO. 6/26/2008
ON FRIDAY NIGHT THE BIG INTERLEAGUE TOTALS PLAY IS ON THE UNDER IN THE ATLANTA-TORONTO-GAME. ROTATION NUMBERS 909/10 AT 7:05 EASTERN.THE BRAVES TAKE TO THE ROAD HERE AND GO UP TO TORONTO TO TAKE ON THE BLUEJAYS. THE BRAVES ARE 2-10 TO THE UNDER IN GAME 1 OF A ROAD SERIES,1-5 UNDER ON ART.TURF THE LAST 3 YEARS,1-8 AS ROAD DOGS PRICED FROM +100/125, 9-28 UNDER ON THE ROAD, 8-25 UNDER VS TEAMS WHO ARE SUB 500,ANS 11-25 UNDER OFF A WIN.LOOKING AT THE PITCHING MATCHUP SHOWS SOLID UNDER ANGLES AS WELL. THE BRAVES SEND OUT JURJENS WHO HAS BEEN A PLEASANT SURPRISE THIS YEAR. IN HIS ROAD TEAM STARTS HE HAS GONE UNDER 6 OF 7 TIMES AND OPPONENTS ARE HITTING JUST .225 AGAINST HIM. FOR THE JAYS ITS DUSTIN MCGOWAN AND HE IS LIGHTS OUT AT HOME WITH A 1.73 ERA. OPPONENTS ARE HITTING JUST .243 AGAINST HIM THIS YEAR,AND IN HIS HOME STARTS THE UNDER HAS CASHED 5 STRAIGHT TIMES. BACK THE UNDER IN THIS GAME. THE CURRENT LINE IS 8.5 BOL GOLDEN CONTENDER
KBHOOPS
MLB
5 units Kansas City -120 **POD**
5 units Detroit Tigers -120
4 units Minnesota -120
4 units Florida -125
MLB
5 units Kansas City -120 **POD**
5 units Detroit Tigers -120
4 units Minnesota -120
4 units Florida -125
STAN SHARP INTERLEAGUE ODDSMAKER ERROR
PHI -120 vs TEX
Stan notes that Philadelphia pounds Lefties scoring almost 6 runs a game against them. Also this line is way too low based on Philadelphia's recent slump. This line should be 20-30 cents higher. Note that Myers threw a good game last time out and should repeat that performance here.
TAKE PHILADELPHIA as STAN'S INTERLEAGUE ODDSMAKER ERROR BIG BET OF THE YEAR and make them a TRIPLE DIME PLAY.
PHI -120 vs TEX
Stan notes that Philadelphia pounds Lefties scoring almost 6 runs a game against them. Also this line is way too low based on Philadelphia's recent slump. This line should be 20-30 cents higher. Note that Myers threw a good game last time out and should repeat that performance here.
TAKE PHILADELPHIA as STAN'S INTERLEAGUE ODDSMAKER ERROR BIG BET OF THE YEAR and make them a TRIPLE DIME PLAY.
Tom Stryker Guaranteed Selections
Date: Friday, June 27, 2008
$35.00 Guaranteed: Big Total Alert! Tom likes to pick his spots when it comes to MLB total plays and on Friday night he has a beauty. This awesome over/under selection comes with two starting pitchers that will help the cause and a couple of team trends that cash on a consistent basis. Grab Tom's Total Investment of the Month guaranteed to win! 6/27/2008
OVER 10.5 (-113) Philadelphia vs Texas at 8:05 PM EST
Yes, I am well aware of the fact that the Phillies have scored a grand total of 15 runs in their last eight games. However, Philadelphia stars Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard are champing at the bit right now to get their bats on track and they'll find success at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington.
Phillies right-hander Brett Myers will help this total selection too. A veteran out of Jacksonville, Florida, Myers has struggled in his last three starts. Facing the Angels, Cardinals and Marlins, Brett has been ripped for 15 earned runs and 21 hits in 19.0 innings of work. That breaks down to a dismal 0-2 record and a lofty 7.11 ERA. Foreign soil has been trouble for Mr. Myers too. As a guest, No. 39 has been smacked for 38 earned runs and 67 hits in 45.1 frames. That adds up to a shocking 0-6 record and an escalated 7.54 ERA!
Texas southpaw Kason Gabbard will certainly assist in this over investment as well. In his last three trips to the bump against Washington, New York (Mets) and Tampa Bay, Gabbard was tagged for 11 earned runs and 19 hits in 15.1 innings. That adds up to a nasty 1-2 record and an ugly 6.46 ERA!
Coming off a straight up loss, Texas has gone over the total in 21 of its last 29 tries (1 tie). Meanwhile, Philadelphia has soared over the mark in five of its last six on the Interleague road battling a lefty. There will be plenty of offense in this contest. Take the OVER. Thank you and best of luck, Tom Stryker.
Date: Friday, June 27, 2008
$35.00 Guaranteed: Big Total Alert! Tom likes to pick his spots when it comes to MLB total plays and on Friday night he has a beauty. This awesome over/under selection comes with two starting pitchers that will help the cause and a couple of team trends that cash on a consistent basis. Grab Tom's Total Investment of the Month guaranteed to win! 6/27/2008
OVER 10.5 (-113) Philadelphia vs Texas at 8:05 PM EST
Yes, I am well aware of the fact that the Phillies have scored a grand total of 15 runs in their last eight games. However, Philadelphia stars Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard are champing at the bit right now to get their bats on track and they'll find success at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington.
Phillies right-hander Brett Myers will help this total selection too. A veteran out of Jacksonville, Florida, Myers has struggled in his last three starts. Facing the Angels, Cardinals and Marlins, Brett has been ripped for 15 earned runs and 21 hits in 19.0 innings of work. That breaks down to a dismal 0-2 record and a lofty 7.11 ERA. Foreign soil has been trouble for Mr. Myers too. As a guest, No. 39 has been smacked for 38 earned runs and 67 hits in 45.1 frames. That adds up to a shocking 0-6 record and an escalated 7.54 ERA!
Texas southpaw Kason Gabbard will certainly assist in this over investment as well. In his last three trips to the bump against Washington, New York (Mets) and Tampa Bay, Gabbard was tagged for 11 earned runs and 19 hits in 15.1 innings. That adds up to a nasty 1-2 record and an ugly 6.46 ERA!
Coming off a straight up loss, Texas has gone over the total in 21 of its last 29 tries (1 tie). Meanwhile, Philadelphia has soared over the mark in five of its last six on the Interleague road battling a lefty. There will be plenty of offense in this contest. Take the OVER. Thank you and best of luck, Tom Stryker.
WunderDog
Game: Baltimore at Washington (7:35 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Washington +121 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 3.6)
The Orioles inexplicably won two of three vs. the Cubs for a series win. The O's are playing well but well enough to be favored here on the road? Yes, the Nats have problems but they are at home and we like the pitching matchup. Odalis Perez has a respectable 4.09 overall ERA which is 2.56 at home! Facing him is Daniel Cabrera who not only has a higher overall ERA but he owns a sky-high 6.88 ERA over his last three starts. He is 3-12 the past decade in inter-league play. The Orioles are just 44-73 vs. LHP the past three seasons. We'll fade the Orioles here at a nice price.
Game: St. Louis at Kansas City (8:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Kansas City -124 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 2.4)
We might sound like a broken record here but the Royals are a young team with a fragile ego. They have already proven that with losing streaks of seven and 12 games on the season. The flip side of that is what is currently happening as they have won five straight and 11 of 12. They now have won five straight for the third time this season. The ego is healthy now, and that's when they win games. Gil Meche closed April with nearly an 8 ERA, and he has since gotten it below 5 with some good outings and has his confidence restored. Joel Piniero has given the Cards more than we thought they were getting. Even with that said they have still dropped his last five starts due in part to a bullpen that has allowed three additional runs a game in those starts. Kansas City is playing with energy and Meche has been the $11 million pitcher they signed, so we take the Royals here.
Game: Milwaukee at Minnesota (8:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Minnesota -119 (moneyline) (risk 4 to win 3.4)
This game has our attention. We have a team that has run off nine-straight wins, playing at home and could move into first place in the AL Central with a win at less than 6-5 favorites? The Twins have won these nine games by a tally of 54-19 or four runs a game. No team has produced more than three runs a game against them, and Nick Blackburn has allowed one run or less in five of his seven starts at the Dome. Another footnote here is the Twins have been dominating the NL to the tune of 40-12 over their last 52 games, and they are 40-15 in their last 55 as a favorite in interleague play. The Brewers have struggled to a 5-12 mark in their last 17 against RHP. The Twins have yet to lose at home this year in interleague play, and have put 20 of their last 24 in the win column against the NL at home. Hot Twins sizzle to their 10th straight win.
Game: Seattle at San Diego (10:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Seattle +128 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 3.8)
The Padres continue to swoon. They did make a 13-6 run, but have since given it all back and then some going 1-9 over their last 10. The problem continues to be their inability to score, as they reached 33 games on the season scoring three or less last night and have done so now for four straight games. The Mariners haven't given much to be excited about except for the fact they have now gone 6-6 in their last 12 on the road, which sure shows a lot of growth for a team that took 27 games to win their first seven on the road. These are two bad teams, but with one playing better than the other. With the Padres favored off a 1-9 run, and 19-42 outside of their 13-6 streak, the value is all over the Mariners here.
Game: Los Angeles Angels at Los Angeles Dodgers (10:40 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total OVER 8 +100 (risk 3 to win 3)
The Angels? Joe Saunders looks to become the first 12-game winner of the '08 season. Saunders has shown to be a quick starter as he was out of the gate last year with an ERA under three in late June that ended in the 4's. In '06 he posted an ERA of three over the first half of his 12 starts, but finished in the 4's. This year the ERA that was once a solid two, has risen to over three. Are we seeing the same career long trend? We think so. The Dodgers have established one thing that covers over 80 games. They have played OVER to the tune of 49-24-3 as a home dog. We like the value set from both sides here, and see this one going OVER the total.
Game: Baltimore at Washington (7:35 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Washington +121 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 3.6)
The Orioles inexplicably won two of three vs. the Cubs for a series win. The O's are playing well but well enough to be favored here on the road? Yes, the Nats have problems but they are at home and we like the pitching matchup. Odalis Perez has a respectable 4.09 overall ERA which is 2.56 at home! Facing him is Daniel Cabrera who not only has a higher overall ERA but he owns a sky-high 6.88 ERA over his last three starts. He is 3-12 the past decade in inter-league play. The Orioles are just 44-73 vs. LHP the past three seasons. We'll fade the Orioles here at a nice price.
Game: St. Louis at Kansas City (8:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Kansas City -124 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 2.4)
We might sound like a broken record here but the Royals are a young team with a fragile ego. They have already proven that with losing streaks of seven and 12 games on the season. The flip side of that is what is currently happening as they have won five straight and 11 of 12. They now have won five straight for the third time this season. The ego is healthy now, and that's when they win games. Gil Meche closed April with nearly an 8 ERA, and he has since gotten it below 5 with some good outings and has his confidence restored. Joel Piniero has given the Cards more than we thought they were getting. Even with that said they have still dropped his last five starts due in part to a bullpen that has allowed three additional runs a game in those starts. Kansas City is playing with energy and Meche has been the $11 million pitcher they signed, so we take the Royals here.
Game: Milwaukee at Minnesota (8:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Minnesota -119 (moneyline) (risk 4 to win 3.4)
This game has our attention. We have a team that has run off nine-straight wins, playing at home and could move into first place in the AL Central with a win at less than 6-5 favorites? The Twins have won these nine games by a tally of 54-19 or four runs a game. No team has produced more than three runs a game against them, and Nick Blackburn has allowed one run or less in five of his seven starts at the Dome. Another footnote here is the Twins have been dominating the NL to the tune of 40-12 over their last 52 games, and they are 40-15 in their last 55 as a favorite in interleague play. The Brewers have struggled to a 5-12 mark in their last 17 against RHP. The Twins have yet to lose at home this year in interleague play, and have put 20 of their last 24 in the win column against the NL at home. Hot Twins sizzle to their 10th straight win.
Game: Seattle at San Diego (10:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Seattle +128 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 3.8)
The Padres continue to swoon. They did make a 13-6 run, but have since given it all back and then some going 1-9 over their last 10. The problem continues to be their inability to score, as they reached 33 games on the season scoring three or less last night and have done so now for four straight games. The Mariners haven't given much to be excited about except for the fact they have now gone 6-6 in their last 12 on the road, which sure shows a lot of growth for a team that took 27 games to win their first seven on the road. These are two bad teams, but with one playing better than the other. With the Padres favored off a 1-9 run, and 19-42 outside of their 13-6 streak, the value is all over the Mariners here.
Game: Los Angeles Angels at Los Angeles Dodgers (10:40 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total OVER 8 +100 (risk 3 to win 3)
The Angels? Joe Saunders looks to become the first 12-game winner of the '08 season. Saunders has shown to be a quick starter as he was out of the gate last year with an ERA under three in late June that ended in the 4's. In '06 he posted an ERA of three over the first half of his 12 starts, but finished in the 4's. This year the ERA that was once a solid two, has risen to over three. Are we seeing the same career long trend? We think so. The Dodgers have established one thing that covers over 80 games. They have played OVER to the tune of 49-24-3 as a home dog. We like the value set from both sides here, and see this one going OVER the total.
