Friday Service Plays 8/22/08

[the duke]

Comps

Tennessee (+3) at ATLANTA Bobby Maxwell

Today on the gridiron we're going with the Titans in Atlanta to take care of the Falcons.

Tennessee coach Jeff Fisher wants his starters to get significant playing time tonight and we're going to trust they can put up some numbers against the Atlanta defense

Vince Young didn't look good last week against the Raiders, going just 4-for-13 for 37 yards in the Titans' 17-16 victory. Young has led the Titans on seven drives in two preseason games and only has three points to show for it. He'll get plenty of chances tonight and expect him to show something positive

Tennessee is 12-3-1 ATS in the last eight years of preseason action and 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games when they've been an underdog in August. Veteran Kerry Collins will play most of the second half with maybe Ingle Martin getting a series or two late in the game.

Atlanta lost to the Colts last week, 16-9 as a 3 1/2 point favorite and committed five turnovers. This team is just 1-3-1 ATS as a preseason favorite and tonight they will be giving a long look to rookie Matt Ryan who will QB into the third quarter.

We like the fact the Titans are going with Young and the starters for a while in this one. He's got something to prove in this preseason. Play Tennessee.

3♦ TENNESSEE



Titans at FALCONS (-3) Chris Jordan

Rookie gunslinger Matt Ryan has arguably been the most effective quarterback for the Falcons during the exhibition campaign, and with this being the most important week of the preseason, you?d have to imagine he?ll bring his A-Game to the Georgia Dome tonight. He?s expected to play well into the third quarter, which means he?ll be allowed to expand the playbook, utilize balance on several drives and properly lead the offense. He?s already considered the favorite fort he starting job, and I am betting that if San Diego-import Michael Turner can relieve some of the pressure, Ryan will be able to shine.

On the other hand, we have a Tennessee offense that posted 34 points in the season opener, and a mere 17 last week against the Raiders. A bit deceptive, and the thing is, Vince Young has yet to give us his best game. The starting offense scored just one touchdown in that exhibition opener, so imagine what it will do on the turf tonight, if the Falcons decide to speed things up. Remember, Atlanta?s defense is nothing to write in about.

These are a pair of young offensive units, and though we?re still in the preseason, they?re going to ignite a bit to topple this rather low number.

2♦ OVER



James Patrick Sports

Eagles vs. Patriots 7:30 p.m.est.

Philadelphia gave the Patriots one of their toughest battles last season before dropping a three point decision to the Pats. We look for the Boys from the City of Brotherly Love to give it another tough battle on Friday Night in Foxboro. Our complimentary selection in Friday Night NFL Preseason action is #243 Philadelphia Eagles.

 

[the duke]

Comps

John Martin

MLB | Aug 22
Cleveland Indians vs. Texas Rangers Texas Rangers

1 Unit on Texas Rangers -118
(Listing Harrison)

Matt Harrison has been a great addition to the Rangers staff with a 5-2 mark as a starter this season. Harrison is only getting better the more innings he throws, going 3-0 with a 3.72 ERA through his last three starts. Harrison and the Rangers are a solid bet as my free play at home today against Fausto Carmona and the Cleveland Indians. Carmona is 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA through his last three starts. Carmona has already faced the Rangers once this season, yielding 6 earned runs before getting relieved of his duties after 2 innings of work. Cleveland is 11-28 as a road underdog of +100 or higher this season. Texas is 61-30 in home games vs. an AL team with a batting average of .260 or worse in the second half of the season since 1997. Harrison over Carmona tonight. Cash in with Texas as the favorite.



Rob Vinciletti

MLB | Aug 22
Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto Blue Jays -101

For Friday evening the free play is on the Toronto Bluejays.Game 970 at 7:10 eastern.The redsox are 1-12 this year on art-turf.There starting pitcher P.Byrd is 4-10 in team road starts with a 5.56 era.Byrd did pitch well here 2 weeks ago going for a complete game win allowing just 2 runs.However it will be difficult to duplicate that performance on the road.Going for the jays is righty S.Marcum, he has been fantastic in his team starts against the Redsox going 5-0 with a 2.61 era.While the jays are just 5-6 in his home team starts,his era is a solid 2.62 in those starts.Toronto has handled Boston this year winning 6 of the 8 games played.Look for the Jays to once again handle the Bosox.



Black Widow

MLB | Aug 22
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles New York

1* on New York Yankees -169
(List Mussina and Liz)

The Yankees are a great bet no matter how much juice you have to lay down tonight. Mike Mussina is one of the few starters that can be counted upon at this time of the year for New York. Mussina is 16-7 with a 3.35 ERA this year, but he?s been even better on the road. Mussina is 6-1 with a 3.05 ERA in nine road starts. The key here is how badly his opponent, Radhames Liz, has pitched for the Orioles. Liz features a 7.49 ERA in all starts and an 11.19 ERA in his last 3 starts. Liz cannot hang with Mussina here. Take the Yankees on the Money Line.


Larry Cook

MLB | Aug 22
Atlanta Braves vs. St Louis Cardinals Total

3* on Braves/Cardinals OVER 9
(Listing Morton and Wainwright)

Adam Wainwright comes off the DL to make his first start since June 7th. Wainwright will be rusty in his first start back, and Charlie Morton will continue to be terrible for the Braves. Morton is 3-7 with a 5.95 ERA as a starter this season. The OVER is 4-0 in four games between the Cards and Braves this season. The OVER is 12-3 in all meetings between these teams over the last 3 seasons. Atlanta is 14-3 OVER vs. an NL team with a batting average of .275 or better in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The Braves are 9-0 OVER vs. an NL team with an on base percentage of .340 or better in the second half of the season this season. Both teams put up plenty of runs tonight. Bet the OVER 9 runs.

 

[the duke]

Dave Cokin

My free pick of the day is the game between (969) BOS Red Sox and (970) TOR Blue Jays. Take "(970) TOR Blue Jays".
Paul Byrd wasn't bad in his first start for the Red Sox and hopes to improve on the effort tonight as Boston opens an important weekend series at Toronto. But the Red Sox haven't exactly been road warriors, they're banged up and running into a Blue Jays entry that still believes they have a shot at the wild card and is playing very hard. Shaun Marcum struggled upon his return from the DL, but he's now won three straight and he gets the edge in the mound comparison tonight. Look for the Blue Jays to cash the ticket.




Jim Feist

My free pick of the day is the game between (971) CLE Indians and (972) TEX Rangers. Take "(971) CLE Indians". You need to keep the ball down low in a hitter's park like Texas. Fortunately, the Indians have Fausto Carmona going, with his excellent fastball and hard, biting sinker. Cleveland is also a hot team, winning 10 of 12. They are finally playing like they did a year ago when they went to the ALCS. The same can't be said of Texas and their awful pitching. The Rangers have lost 11 of 13 games. Lefty Matt Harrison has a winning record, but a 5.77 ERA, giving up 68 base runners in 43 innings. A good spot for the red hot road dog. Play the Indians.

 

[the duke]

Comps

Jimmy The Moose

Game: New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles Aug 22 2008 7:05PM
Prediction: over

Reason: The over is 6-2 in the Yankees last 8 games vs. Division opponents. The over is 13-6 in their last 19 games played on grass. The Yankees have played over the total in 4 of Mussina's last 5 starts. The over is 45-18-4 in Baltimore's last 67 games. The over is 22-8-3 in their last 33 games vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 15-7-3 in their last 25 home games. The team's have played the over in 4 of the last 5 meetings. The over is 5-0 in Mussina's last 5 starts vs. Baltimore. Play the over.



Marc Lawrence

Game: New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles Aug 22 2008 7:05PM
Prediction: New York Yankees
Reason: Play On: NY Yankees w/ Mussina vs LIz

The Pinstripes send Mike Mussina to the hill against Radhames Liz and the Orioles in Baltimore tonight. Mussina has been in commanding KW form with 5 walks and 43 strikeouts in his last 8 starts while Liz counters with 14 walks and 11 strikeouts in his last 4 efforts. Enough said. Look for Mussina to make it 5-0 this month in August here tonight.

 

[the duke]

Comps

Jeff Benton

Friday play the Eagles plus the points at New England.

I never thought in a million years I?d be going against the Patriots in Week 3 of the preseason. Why? Because this is the only August game that coach Bill Belichick gives a hoot about, as his team not only is 5-1 SU and ATS the last three years in Week 3, but the Pats have outscored the opposition 92-10 the last three years alone!

So why buck such a strong trend this time around? Two words: Tom Brady. Normally, Brady would play well into the third quarter with the rest of the starters this week. However, because of a leg injury that has kept him on the sidelines in the first two preseason games, it?s unknown if Brady will sniff the field tonight. And if he does play, I can?t see any way in the world that Belichick exposes his bread-and-butter for more than a series or two. And you know what that means: Yep, another healthy dose of backups Matt Cassel, Matt Gutierrez and rookie Kevin O?Connell. Well, if you saw Cassel and O?Connell stink it up in Monday?s 27-10 loss in Tampa Bay, you can see why I?m not backing New England.

As for the Eagles, their starters (including QB Donovan McNabb), are set to go three quarters in this one. And in the end, I?ll take McNabb and Philly?s first-stringers for 75 percent of the game over a Tom Brady-less New England squad (whose defense, by the way, is looking old!). Take the points with what should be a motivated visitor (remember: McNabb and Philly coach Andy Reid haven?t forgotten that Super Bowl loss to the Pats three years ago!).

(Based on a 1♦ to 10♦ rating system)

4♦ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES




Ross Benjamin

Game: Cincinnati (Harang) @ Colorado (Cook)
Date/Time: 8/22/2008 9:05PM EST
Pick: Over 9.5 (+100)

Reason: In spite of both of these teams entering this series playing below .500 baseball they have the ability offensively to expose a struggling starting pitcher. In this particular spot we have 2 starters that are struggling. The Cincinnati starter Aaron Harang enters in horrible form off of his last 3 starts posting a 16.97 ERA, a 2.74 WHIP, and allowed 8 home runs in just 11.1 innings. The Colorado starter Aaron Cook enters the game in bad form off of his last 3 starts posting a 6.61 ERA and 1.96 WHIP. Play on over the total as my MLB free selection of the night.

 

[the duke]

Comps

John Fina

August 22, 2008

Selection: Cincinnati/Colorado Over 9.5 (-125)

Reason: Put us down on the Cincinnati Reds/Colorado Rockies Over 9.5 for our Free MLB Selection on Friday. Today we see a high-scoring game as the Cincinnati Reds do battle with the Colorado Rockies. One reason why we expect a high-scoring game is because both these teams will be sending to the mound struggling starting pitchers. This says it all... The Cincinnati Reds Starting Pitcher (Aaron Harang) has a 16.97 ERA in his last 3 starts, while Colorado Rockies Starting Pitcher (Aaron Cook) has a 6.61 ERA in his last 3 starts. As you can see, both these teams will be sending to the mound struggling starting pitchers. The bottom line, we should see many runs scored today! Take the Cincinnati Reds/Colorado Rockies Over 9.5!



Tony Mathews

August 22, 2008

Matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers

Selection: Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 Runs (-130)

Explanation: We will side with the Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 Runs as they face-off against the Pittsburgh Pirates in Friday's MLB contest.

The Pittsburgh Pirates will use starting pitcher Zach Duke. Zach Duke has been struggling as of late. In fact, Zach Duke has a 5.21 ERA in his last 3 starts. We see Zach Duke pitching another bad game today.

The Milwaukee Brewers will use starting pitcher David Bush. David Bush has been pitching very well as of late. In fact, David Bush has a 1.77 ERA in his last 3 starts. We see David Bush pitching another great game today.

The Milwaukee Brewers are 21-6 in their last 27 meetings against the Pittsburgh Pirates (when playing in Milwaukee), and should be able to get another blowout win tonight!

Take the Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 Runs!



Brian Marshall

August 22, 2008

Game: Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals

Plays On: Detroit/Kansas City Over 9.5 (-110)

Game Analyses: Do you love high-scoring games? If yes, you will love Friday's MLB game between the Detroit Tigers and Kansas City Royals.

The Detroit Tigers will be lead by starting pitcher Justin Verlander. Justin Verlander has struggled as of late. In fact, Justin Verlander has a 5.50 ERA in his last 3 starts. We see Justin Verlander giving up many runs once again today.

The Kansas City Royals will be lead by starting pitcher Brian Bannister. Brian Bannister has also struggled as of late. In fact, Brian Bannister has a 12.75 ERA in his last 3 starts. We see Brian Bannister also giving up many runs once again today.

Trend: The Over is 9-3 in the Detroit Tigers last 12 road games.

To say the least, we should see many runs scored today.

Take the Detroit Tigers/Kansas City Royals Over 9.5!

 

[the duke]

Gator

70% Super Situation

Friday: Play Against MLB road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher starting a pitcher who gave up 1 or less earned runs in his last outing against an opponent with a starting pitcher who has a WHIP >= 2.000 over his last 3 starts, 51-13 SU last five seasons (79.7%)

PLAY: Philadelphia Phillies -135


e-Report Top Angle

Friday: Chicago White Sox are 12-0 against the money line in home games after a game where they had 6 or more extra base hits this season.

 

[the duke]

SCOTT FERRALL



BASEBALL LOCKS FOR FRIDAY

CUBS -275 and Marquis over the Nationals at Wrigley--easy money here baby ! Washington loses every game they play

Phillies -135 and Kendrick over Greg Maddux in his Dodger debut, and it won't go well at Citizens

Santana -200 and the Mets over the Astros and Roy Oswalt at Shea

Bush -240 and the Brewers over the Bucs at Miller Park and Zach Duke

Oakland -105 at Seattle--Gonzalez on the road over the M's and Feierabend

Saunders -165 and the Halos over the Twins in Anaheim

Danks and the ChiSox -160 over the Rays and Edwin Jackson in the Windy City

Detroit -180 with Verlander topping Bannister in Kansas City

Texas and Harrison -120 over the Indians and Carmona in Arlington


BASEBALL OVER-UNDERS FOR FRIDAY

OAK-SEATT OVER 9

MINN-LA ANGELS UNDER 8.5

TB-CHISOX OVER 9

DET-KC OVER 9.5

CLEVE-TEX OVER 11.5

BOST-TOR UNDER 9.5

NY-BALT UNDER 10.5

SD-SF OVER 7

FLA-ARIZ UNDER 9

CINCY-COLO OVER 9.5

ATL-ST.LOU OVER 9

PITT-MILW OVER 9

HOUS-NY METS UNDER 7.5

LA-PHILLY OVER 9.5


BASEBALL FREE B's FOR FRIDAY

Marcum and Toronto -110 over the Red Sox and Paul Byrd at Rogers Center

Mussina -160 at Camden as Moose goes back to Baltimore and tops the Orioles and Liz--Yanks get it done here

Lincecum -220 and San Fran at home over the Padres and Baek--because the Padres don't score runs and won't here either

Arizona -200 and Randy Johnson over the Marlins and Sanchez in the desert..Unit has looked good lately and is closing in on #300

Cook and the Rockies -240 at Coors over the Reds and Harang

Cardinals -190 and Wainwright over Morton and the hapless Braves, who looked dead in New York this week. It won't get any better for them in St.Louis


NFL Pre-Season Week 3 (Friday games)

New England -1.5 to Philly--The Pats have to at least show up for one game don't they ? OVER 36.5

Atlanta -3 to Tennessee at the Georgiadome--Matt Ryan looks good against the Titans and gets the Falcons fans excited---UNDER 35

DALLAS -5 to Texans--the game is in Big D, so you know what's going to happen--all Cowboys--all night--OVER 41.5 as Romo and company light it up

Denver -3 to Green Bay--more trouble for Rodgers on the road and Cutler has looked great for the Broncos in the pre-season--OVER 38

 

[the duke]

JEFFERSONSPORTS --no plays yest

HIT 21 of last 30 (70%)

MLB EARLY RELEASE
CHICAGO CUBS-1.5 -120
CHICAGO WHITE SOX-155
LA DODGERS+124
ST. LOUIS -185


79-52 last 131 plays (61%)

MLB +38.39 units (+3839.00$ playing 100.00 a game)

NFL EARLY RELEASE
GREEN BAY+3.5

 

[the duke]

Pointwise Phones

NFL
4* New England
3* Tennessee
3* Green Bay

 

[the duke]

WILD BILL

Patriots -3 (5 units)
Houston +3 (5 units)
Over 40 1/2 Houston-Dallas (5 units)
Denver -3 (5 units)

 

[the duke]

LT Profits

Tennessee Titans @ Atlanta Falcons over 35.5 (-110)
Fri Aug 22 '08 7:30p

The Atlanta Falcons and the Tennessee Titans have not put up many points this preseason, but we expect that to change on Friday night.

Rookie Matt Ryan has been the most effective quarterback for the Falcons this preseason, and he is expected to play into the third quarter this week along with the Atlanta regulars. This will give him ample opportunity to showcase his skills, and he is already considered the favorite to win the starting job right out of Boston College. It certainly helps to have the support of running back Michael Turner for at least a half, as he has escaped from the shadow of LT in San Diego to already rush for 135 yards this preseason.

The Titans did not look crisp offensively in a 17-16 win over the Raiders last week, and the 34 points they scored in their preseason opener is deceptive as the starting offense only scored one touchdown. Still, Tennessee is better than they have shown, and a shaky Atlanta defense should be just what the Titans need to break out of their offensive doldrums.

Yes, it is preseason, but with the starters for both teams expected to see more action than in any other exhibition game this year, look for some more scoring than usual.

Titans/Atlanta Falcons Over 35.5 (-110)

 

[the duke]

ARMVIN SPORTS

GREEN BAY at DENVER Under 38

TAMPA BAY RAYS 148



PlayByPlay

PHILADELPHIA at NEW ENGLAND Over 36


All Free Picks

TENNESSEE 3

 

[the duke]

Comp

Big Al Mcmordie

Game: Florida Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacks Aug 22 2008 9:40PM

Prediction: under

Reason: At 9:40pm our member selection is on the Florida Marlins and Arizona Diamondbacks 'under' the total. The D-Backs may have a renewed offense of late, but for some reason, veteran lefthanded starter and future Hall-of-Famer Randy Johnson has not been the recipient of any of this recent firepower. It's almost like the bats take the day off when Johnson steps to the mound. Consider that, the Diamondbacks had averaged 6.3 runs since Johnson's last outing, which was a 3-0 loss to Roy Oswalt and the Astros. Then in the four previous games that did not feature the Big Unit, the scores were 11-5, 12-2, 6-2, and 6-5. Johnson's outing prior to those four gams? A 4-2 victory over the Rockies. In fact, if you go back through Johnson's last four starts, Arizona only scored a total of six runs and the total runs scored in the four games combined was fourteen. A similar fate has met Florida's talented young righthander Anibal Sanchez. With the exception of the 12-2 blowout of the Rockies on July 31st, the Marlins have not scored more than 3 runs in any of Sanchez's last five outings. There's no doubt that Arizona holds a special place in Sanchez's heart. After all, it was against this team that the 24-year-old threw a no-hitter back in September of 2006. Almost 2 years later and with Florida vying for a berth in the postseason, there's no doubt that Sanchez would like to duplicate that, although I'm sure he would settle for a repeat of his last start when he shut down the Cubs over 5 1/3 innings en route to a 2-1 victory. Look for a low-scoring affair tonight. Take the 'under'.

 

[the duke]

Comp

K & B Sports

The Texans are 2-0 SU and 1-0-1 ATS in preseason 2008 and scored 31 points in their last game. The Cowboys are 0-2 SU and ATS. In those two games this team was outscored by an average of 12 points per game. Look for a solid performance on offense from the Texans and a subpar performance on defense from the Cowboys.

HOUSTON TEXANS

 

[the duke]

Comp

L.A. Dodgers (+125) at PHILADELPHIA Bobby Maxwell

We back the Dodgers to get the win in Philadelphia.

Will history repeat itself for the Dodgers? Two seasons ago they got Greg Maddux in a late-season acquisition and he delivered for them and they got to the playoffs. They send the veteran Maddux (6-9, 3.99 ERA) to the hill tonight in Philadelphia with thoughts of the same thing happening as they are trying to run down and pass the D'Backs.

When he was a Dodger in 2006 Maddux went 6-3 with a 3.30 ERA and Los Angeles won the NL West crown. Maddux faced the Phillies as a San Diego Padre a week ago and held them to one run on five hits over seven innings but lost 1-0.

The Dodgers swept the Phillies four games in Los Angeles last week and Philadelphia just isn't scoring runs lately, putting up just 61 in August for the third fewest in baseball.

Kyle Kendrick (10-7, 5.01) goes for the Phillies and he has been crushed in his last two starts, givign up seven runs in just 3.1 innings of an 8-6 loss to the Dodgers on Aug. 11 and then following it up by allowing six runs in 3.2 innings to the Padres on Saturday with an 8-3 loss.

Los Angeles has won six straight against the Phillies and we don't expect much to change tonight. Play the Dodgers and Maddux in this one.

3♦ L.A. DODGERS

 

[the duke]

MIGHTY QUINN

Mighty hit with the Blue Jays last night.

Today it's the Red Sox. The surplus is 390 sirignanos.



HONDO

August 22, 2008
There was nothing wrong with the Nats that a little support from Hondo couldn't cure. Washington's losing streak ended at 12 last night, which sent Mr. Aitch's earnings skyrocketing to an even steven 500 barbers.

Tonight, mark him down for Marcum - 10 units on the Jays to roll past the Bosawx.

 

[the duke]

Vernon Croy

Washington Nationals vs Chicago Cubs
Event Date: 08/22/2008
Event Time: 2:20 PM est

Play: Take the Cubs on the Runline




LPW Sports Forecast

MLB Total
08/22/08 - 7:05 PM
PICK: 954 PHI / 953 LOS Over 9.5

 

[the duke]

SPORTS ADVISORS

NFL PRESEASON

Philadelphia (1-1 SU and ATS) at New England (0-2 SU and ATS)

The Patriots, who could again be without injured QB Tom Brady, look for their first win of the preseason when they take on the Eagles at Gillette Stadium

The Patriots went to Tampa Bay on Sunday night and, minus Brady for the second straight week, they got crushed 27-10 as a three-point road underdog. New England mustered just 174 yards and had three turnovers, while Tampa had 295 yards and no turnovers. New England, which has finished 2-2 SU the last three preseasons, needs to win the next two weeks to extend that streak.

Philadelphia scored 24 fourth-quarter points to erase a 10-0 deficit and beat Carolina 24-13 as a 3?-point home favorite last week. Backup QB Kevin Kolb led the rally and finished 14 of 27 for 155 yards passing, with one TD and one INT, and the Eagles outgained the Panthers 386-212. Still, the Eagles are just 9-14 (11-12 ATS) in August dating to 2005, including 2-4 SU and ATS going back to last year.

Brady was in pads for Wednesday?s practice, but his playing status remains uncertain. If he doesn?t go, Matt Cassel would likely get the start, followed by Matt Gutierrez and rookie Kevin O?Connell, all three of whom are battling for the No. 2 job.

There are no such QB issues for the Eagles, who will have Donovan McNabb and the starters go for three quarters, according to coach Andy Reid. In last week?s outing, McNabb was 11 of 24 for 98 yards, with no TDS or INTs. A.J. Feeley and Kolb will finish out the game.

While coach Bill Belichick hasn?t put any real emphasis on home exhibition contests (4-4 SU and ATS the past four years), New England has come to play in Week 3, going 5-1 SU and ATS the last six years, including 3-0 SU and ATS the last three. In fact, the Pats have won those last three Week 3 contests by a combined score of 92-10.

The over is 5-1 in the Eagles? last six preseason games overall, 3-1 in their last four on the road and 3-1 in New England?s last four August contests in Foxboro.

ATS ADVANTAGE:OVER


Tennessee (2-0, 1-1 ATS) at Atlanta (0-2, 1-1 ATS)

The Titans look to keep their perfect preseason going when they travel to the Georgia Dome to take on the Falcons.

After blowing out the Rams 34-13 in its exhibition opener, Tennessee eked out a 17-16 victory over Oakland a week ago, coming up short as a 3?-point home choice. Titans QB Vince Young (4-for-13, 37 yards) struggled, and the Titans defense allowed 195 rushing yards. Now Tennessee heads out on the road, where it is 12-3-1 ATS over the last eight years of preseason play. The Titans are also 10-1 ATS in their last 11 as an exhibition underdog.

Atlanta took a 6-0 lead into the second quarter on Saturday against Indianapolis, but couldn?t hold it, losing 16-9 as a 3?-point home favorite. The Falcons committed five turnovers (3 INTs) while forcing only one. Still, the Falcons are 9-5-1 ATS since the start of the 2005 preseason, including 6-3 (5-3-1 ATS) at home. On the flip side, they?re just 1-3-1 ATS as a chalk during this stretch.

Titans coach Jeff Fisher said QB Vince Young and the rest of the starters are expected to go the entire first half and perhaps longer. Young has led seven drives in the first two preseason games but come up with only one score (a field goal). He will be relieved in the second half by veteran Kerry Collins, with Ingle Martin and Paul Thompson perhaps getting some mop-up time, as well.

Rookie QB Matt Ryan (8 of 16, 62 yards, 1 INT last week) will start and could play into the third quarter for the Falcons, likely followed by Joey Harrington, Chris Redman and possibly D.J. Shockley.

The Falcons are 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS in Week 3 of the preseason the last four years, including a 20-6 rout at Tennessee in 2006.

The over is 4-2 in Atlanta?s last six summer contests at the Georgia Dome, and the Titans are on over streaks of 4-1 overall and 4-0 on the road.

ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA


Houston (2-0, 1-0-1 ATS) at Dallas (0-2 SU and ATS)

The Texans make the short road trip to Texas Stadium for a bragging-rights matchup against the instate rival Cowboys, who will be at home for the first time this preseason.

Houston churned out 405 total yards in last week?s 31-27 upset win over the Saints as a three-point road underdog. The Texans are 7-3 (6-2-2 ATS) in the preseason under third-year coach Gary Kubiak after going 2-10 SU and ATS the previous three summers. Also, with Kubiak at the helm, Houston is 4-1 on the road in August (3-1-1 ATS) and 5-1 ATS as an underdog.

The Cowboys opened the exhibition campaign with a pair of SU and ATS road losses at San Diego (31-17) and Denver (23-13). However, now they return to Texas Stadium, where they are 9-0-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in exhibition action since 2003, including 2-0 SU and ATS last year in coach Wade Phillips? first summer with the team.

Houston topped the Cowboys 28-16 as a 2?-point home underdog in Week 3 last year and is 2-0 ATS in Week 3 under Kubiak. However, the last time these teams met in Dallas in the preseason was in 2005, and the Cowboys rolled 21-9 as a three-point chalk.

QB Matt Schaub, who was extremely sharp last week in going 14 of 16 for 187 yards and two TDs, should go the whole first half and perhaps beyond for the Texans. Sage Rosenfels will relieve Schaub, with rookie Alex Brink and Shane Boyd in mop-up duty.

Phillips indicated he might go the first three quarters with QB Tony Romo and the rest of his starting offense. Romo, who went 6-for-9 for 33 yards in just two possessions last week in Denver, will be relieved by veteran Brad Johnson, with Richard Bartel possibly coming on late.

Houston has topped the total in six straight preseason games going back to last year, and the over is 5-1 in the team?s last six August road affairs. Also, the over is 4-1 in Dallas? last five overall in the summer.

ATS ADVANTAGE DALLAS and OVER


Green Bay (0-2 SU and ATS) at Denver (1-1, 1-0-1 ATS)

The Packers, off to a bumpy preseason start in the Aaron Rodgers era, travel to Invesco Field at Mile High for a meeting with the Broncos.

Green Bay looked terrible in Saturday?s 34-6 loss at San Francisco, getting outgained 355-182 while losing three fumbles. The Packers are now 1-4 SU and ATS on the road and 1-5 ATS as an underdog in August under coach Mike McCarthy. They?ve also lost five straight preseason games in Week 3, going 1-4 ATS. In fact, in the last three years, Green Bay has been outscored 96-33 in Week 3.

Denver got a strong outing from QB Jay Cutler (16 of 26, 178 yards, one TD) en route to Saturday?s 23-13 rout of Dallas as a two-point home favorite. The Broncos are now 21-10-2 ATS the last eight-plus preseasons under coach Mike Shanahan, including 6-1 (4-3 ATS) at home since 2005. Also, Denver is 3-1 (2-2 ATS) the last four years in Week 3.

McCarthy said Rodgers and the rest of the offensive starters will play the entire first half against the Broncos, and possibly into the third quarter. Rodgers was 9 of 16 for 58 yards last week, but he was sacked four times, and the first unit mustered just 46 total yards and four first downs on 25 snaps against the 49ers. Rodgers is expected to give way to rookie Brian Brohm, followed by fellow rookie Matt Flynn.

Cutler, who went the entire first half last week, should do the same this week and might go into the third quarter with the rest of the starters, though Shanahan hasn?t divulged specifics of his QB rotation. Patrick Ramsey would likely relieve in the second half, followed by Darrell Hackney.

The under is 4-0 in Denver?s last four summer games at Invesco Field. However, the over is 7-3 in Green Bay?s last 10 exhibition contests, including 3-1 on the road.

ATS ADVANTAGE DENVER


AMERICAN LEAGUE

Minnesota (73-54) at L.A. Angels (77-49)

Joe Saunders (14-5, 3.14 ERA) toes the slab for the Angels in the second game of a four-game set against the Twins, who will counter with Glen Perkins (10-3, 4.17) in a battle of southpaws.

In Thursday night?s series opener, an extended pitchers? duel broke out as the Twins earned a 2-1 win in 12 innings, with Denard Span?s RBI single plating the winning run. The Angels, in an uncharacteristic rut, have now lost six of their last eight games. However, they are still on a 5-2 run at home and are on additional streaks of 23-8 with Saunders starting at home, 23-9 against winning teams and 23-9 in their last 32 games against left-handed starters.

The Twins are on impressive hot streaks of 7-1 against the A.L. West, 17-4 against lefties, 39-18 overall and 9-3 in Perkins? last 12 starts. However, Minnesota has still dropped seven of its last nine against the Angels and 19 of its last 27 in Anaheim.

Los Angeles had won five straight behind Saunders before Sunday?s 4-3 loss at Cleveland. In that outing, he allowed three runs on eight hits in five innings and got his fourth no-decision in his last six starts. On the positive end, the Angels are 5-0 in Saunders? last five home starts.

Minnesota has prevailed in six of Perkins? last eight starts, including his last two outings. On Sunday against Seattle, he allowed four runs on eight hits in six innings of an 11-8 home victory, the ninth straight game that he?s pitched at least six innings.

Saunders is 6-2 with a 3.63 ERA in 12 home starts this season, and he?s 2-0 with a minuscule 1.20 ERA in two career outings against Minnesota. Perkins, meanwhile, is 3-1 with a 4.60 ERA in seven road starts this year, and this will be the 25-year-old?s first career appearance against Los Angeles.

In this rivalry, the under is 5-1-1 in the last seven matchups and 18-8-3 in the last 28 meetings in L.A. Also, the under is 24-9-3 in the Halos? last 36 games against lefties. For the Twins, though, the over has cashed in five of their last seven roadies and 17 of their last 23 games against A.L. West opponents.

ATS ADVANTAGE:L.A. ANGELS

 

[the duke]

EZ WINNERS

MLB

2 STAR: (970) TORONTO (-$107) over Boston
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Date: Friday, August 22, 2008
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Paul Leiner

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