Fri, 10/10/08 - 8:35 PMRocky Atkinson | NHL Money Line
triple-dime bet61 NAS (+100)Bodog vs 62 STL
Analysis:
Nashville @ St Louis 8:35 PM EST
Play On: 5* Nashville +100
Nashville is 12-4 SU and ATS overall vs St Louis the past 3 years. Blues are 5-11 in their last 16 vs. Central. Blues are 17-39 in their last 56 overall. Blues are 15-37 in their last 52 vs. Western Conference. Blues are 2-6 in their last 8 home games. Predators are 21-5-1 in the last 27 meetings. Predators are 9-3 in the last 12 meetings in St. Louis. Nashville goalie Ellis is 2-0 in his career against St Louis and is 24-10 overall in all his career games. We'll play Nashville for 5 units tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky
Cajun-Sports CFB Executive Report- Friday
14-4 L18 (Lost last night w/5* Clemson)
FRIDAY 10/10/2008
8:00 PM EDT
3 STAR SELECTION (Rated 1 to 6 Units)
MEMPHIS +6? over Louisville
The Cardinals and Tigers renew their football rivalry on Friday as the 2 teams meet on the field for the first time since 2004 when the schools scored a combined 105 points and racked up over 1,200 yards in a game the Cards won 56-49.
Louisville is looking to rebound from a tough home loss in their Big East opener to Connecticut last Friday, in which the Cards? offense amassed more than 500 yards of total offense and held the Huskies under 300 total yards.
Meanwhile, Memphis will enter the game with an offense that ranks among the best in the nation. The Tigers rank in the top 20 in the nation in passing yards and total offense.
The Cards secondary will be in for a difficult task when matching up with the Tiger?s physically intimidating crop of veteran receivers, which have an average height of six-foot six-inches. They are led by junior Carlos Singleton, who is listed at six-foot-eight. Singleton is joined by senior Maurice Jones and junior Duke Calhoun at the wideout position.
While the Tigers have been most effective in the passing game, they have maintained a balanced threat on offense with a running attack that is averaging 190 yards per game. Curtis Steele leads the team in rushing and is had his best performance of the season running for 203 yards and a touchdown against Arkansas State 2 games back.
Louisville comes in with quite a bit of baggage that is full of negative numbers. The Cardinals are 0-8 ATS (-18.1 ppg) as a favorite of 3+ points vs. opponents not off a SU loss of 22+ points since the start of last season and 0-7 ATS (-9.6 ppg) as a non-Saturday road favorite of 3+ points since 1999, including 0-2 ATS at Memphis.
Some may think that Louisville comes in well rested, as this will be their first road game of the season; however, after 3 straight home games, teams have gotten stale and have been unprepared for the role of solid favorite in non-Saturday games against foes not coming in on a long losing streak. Specifically, from Game on, non-Saturday favorites of 4+ points with less than 19 days rest off 3 home games are 0-9 ATS vs. opponents not off 3 SU losses, failing to cover the spread by more than 2 TDs per game on average..
Memphis looked horrible early in the season, but are now on a 3-game win streak. This fits in nicely with a handicapping strategy of ours that says to play ON a rebuilding team that started the season losing at least its first few games. Off to such a poor start, the team will be butt of jokes in all local sports media and nobody will want to bet on the sorry bunch; however, this will generate line value on the team as they will be very determined to win, while upcoming opponents may take them lightly. These teams should be ones in which there wasn?t much expected anyway, as they?re in a rebuilding mode. Teams whose coaches have a long-term commitment from the athletic department will receive better efforts from the players, while coaches whose job is as good as gone after the season may find players more likely to quit on them. The Tigers have rebounded nicely in their rebuilding mode and should only get stronger as the season progresses now that they have found their identity and play makers.
After 3 victories to erase a 3-game losing skid to start the season, teams with new life have been quite strong as confirmed by an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM that states: In Game 7, play ON a .500% team off 3 SU wins (not 3 home games) and not seeking revenge for a conference road underdog SU & ATS loss in the previous matchup last season. Since 1993, these teams are 9-0 ATS, beating the spread by 2 TDs per game on average.
Of course, Memphis qualifies as the PLAY ON team for that system as it does the following POWER SYSTEM showing that home underdogs and small favorites on a winning streak and coming off a road win, have done extremely well. It states:
In Games 5-10, play ON a home team (not a favorite of more than 5 points) off a road SU win (not as a favorite of 8+ points) in its last game and a home underdog SU win before that. Since 1992, these teams are an amazing 17-0-1 ATS, beating the spread by nearly 2 TDs per game on average.
Finally, we also note that non-Saturday home underdogs have been very strong off 3 consecutive victories. This POWER SYSTEM that also qualifies the Tigers declares:
Play ON a non-Saturday home underdog of more than 2 points off a SU win of less than 30 points in its last game and 2 SU wins before that.
These teams are a perfect 10-0 ATS all time, beating the spread by a dozen points per game on average.
Memphis has always played well in this neighborhood rivalry, as they are 9-0 ATS (+8.6 ppg) as an underdog vs. Louisville and not seeking revenge for a 1-point SU loss since at least 1980. We expect a hot Tigers team to again give the Cardinals all they can handle and take this game down to the wire and at least cover the spread.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: MEMPHIS 24 LOUISVILLE 23
Steven Budin-CEO
FRIDAY'S PICK
25 DIME PLAY
TAMPA BAY RAYS
Marc Lawrence
Double-Dime Bet
Memphis +6.0 vs Louisville
The Tigers host the Cardinals in a Conference USA clash Friday night with revenge on their minds from a 56-49 loss the last time these two teams met in 2004. For Memphis they have played much better than its 3-3 record would indicate as they've outgained five of their six opponents on the playing field. Meanwhile Louisville checks in off a revenge loss at home against Connecticut. With Memphis head coach Tommy West 6-0 ATS in his college head coaching career as a home dog in games after his team scored 30 or more points in its last game, look for the Tigers to improve to 10-1 ATS as a dog in this series here tonight. Grab the points with Memphis.
Dr Bob
Louisville (-6.0) 32 MEMPHIS 24
Louisville?s offense has blossomed the last 3 games (6.8 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average team) after really struggling in their opener against Kentucky (just 2.9 yppl an zero points). I expect Louisville?s offense to continue to play well tonight against a porous Memphis defense that?s given up 6.4 yppl this season to a schedule of teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average stop unit. Memphis has made up for their bad defense with a pretty good offense that has been 0.2 yppl better than average this season (6.0 yppl against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl) but the Cardinals are good defensively (4.5 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.0 yppl against an average defense), so the Tigers will probably not be able to put together too many long drives. My math model favors Louisville by 7? points, so I?ll lean with the Cardinals.
vegas-runner | MLB Money Line Triple-Dime Bet
904 TAM (-120) Bodog vs 903 BOS
Analysis:
*** MLB ALCS 3* BEST BET of the DAY ***
(Shields vs Matsuzaka)
This should be an excellent series, and Tonight we have the all important Game 1 of the ALCS...and I just can't see any Value in going against the Home Team in this one...
For starters, the Rays have WON "71%" of their Home Games in 2008, and that tells us that we could have laid -240 on them at home and still turned a Profit...More importantly, Boston was average at best on the road, and in the "18" game played between these 2 clubs in the season...ONLY "3" have been won by the road team...and 2 of those wins came from the Rays at Fenway...
As we saw in the Phillies selection last night, many times edge in price alone is enough to make a wager...but Tonight we have much more going for us by backing the Rays...
Dice K has been incredible on the road this year, and to have success against him, you need patience...Well if you remember when he faced the Angels and we backed him and won...my reasoning was that Scoscia was asking an aggressive team to change what's led to their success, and we got rewarded for it...Tonight, we will need that same approach from the Rays batters, but the huge difference is that this team's philosophy all season has been "Patience at the Plate"...which is the main reason Dice hasn't lasted 6 inn against them...
I also really like the fact that we get Shields at home, whose splits really show that in this dome is where you want to back him...And speaking of domes, the Red Sox have never played well in them, including this year where they come in "2-11"...and "6-16" on the carpet...
When I broke this series down, the only reason I didn't go ahead and make a play on the Rays to advance is their lack of experience and nothing else...because I believe even without a big name closer, they really have an edge over the Red Sox in starting pitching and in the pen...especially at home...and you would give the nod to Boston offensively...but not by the type of margin many believe and Lowell being out will be huge, you can mark my word because the replacement value backing him up isn't even close, and then when you toss in defense, it becomes even more apparent that this is a very winnable series for Tampa...
When looking at how the market is reacting both to sharp and public money, I really like the way the Rays have gradually gone up in price, rather than one big shot...meaning, even though the books could expect much more public money to come in late on the Sox tonight...they are doing what they can to stop more sharp money from coming in on Tampa...and willing to book the Sox at "plus money"...Mainly because as I was informed by many of the books in town...there is a liability if the Rays win this series, and since they believe that is very likely...it's become evident they will attempt to offset what they can by having Boston be bet during the series...to avoid getting hit from both ends...
Finally, the atmosphere in Tampa tonight should be electric...and I really like how this club has shown that although they may be young, they are having fun and playing extremely loose...and if my vote for Coach of the Year is able to keep that attitude in the club house througout...even when facing adversity...we just may see this team in the World Series...
But first, they have a Game 1 to play...so let's go ahead and back the Rays as our 3* BEST BET of the DAY...and see if we can improve on our 65% MLB Playoff record...VR
Northcoast Fri Marquee Lou/Mem OVER 56
Larry Ness
15* Friday Night Game of the Month
Louisville and Memphis met almost yearly from 1961 through 2004 and have played each other 40 times. The two programs used to be C-USA rivals before Louisville left for the Big East in 2005. Louisville has played just four games (2-2) this year, as the Cards were last in action losing 26-21 at home to U Conn on September 26. Unlike Louisville, Memphis has played every weekend this year and will enter with a 3-3 mark. Which Louisville team will show up here, in its first road game of the season? In their season-opener vs Kentucky, the Cards were held to two points, as QB Cantwell completed 20-of-43 for 157 yards with three interceptions. After beating Tenn Tech, the Louisville offense was terrific against Kansas St on a Wednesday night, as Cantwell threw for 274 yards with two TDs and RB Anderson had 176 YR with TD runs of 29, 56 and 52 yards. Then against U Conn, the Cards let a 21-10 lead slip away in the late third quarter, losing 26-21 (final score was a 45-yard interception TD with 2:45 by the Huskies). Cantwell was not 100 percent in that game (especially late in the game) and despite out-gaining the Huskies 508-279 in yards (with two RBs topping 100 yards), the Cards lost. Friday, Louisville will FINALLY play a road game (hard to believe). The Tigers have turned an 0-3 start around with three straight wins. They lost 41-24 to Ole Miss in their season-opener but played the Rebels even, out-gaining them 453-438 in yards. In Game 2, Memphis led Rice 35-20 in the 4th quarter but lost 42-35, as the game-winner came on a 69-yard interception TD with 11 seconds left in the contest. Memphis gained 462 yards the next week against Marshall but scored just 16 points in a one-point loss. Tommy West (in his eighth year as the Memphis head coach) could have let his team quit after that 0-3 start but actually, just the opposite has been true. Memphis has rebounded to average 31.0 PPG in three consecutive wins over Nicholls St, Arkansas St and UAB (not exactly a murderer's row). After passing for 373 and 364 yards in back-to-back losses to Rice and Marshall, QB Hall has averaged a modest 186.7 YPG in the team's three-game winning streak. RB Steele has led the way during the team's winning streak, averaging 137.7 YPG on the ground, while averaging 7.4 YPC. Both teams have nice balance on offense but I strongly favor the home 'dog. Steele's solid running has sure helped Hall, who had four TD passes in his last game. Remember, the Tigers return their top-seven pass-catchers from last year and five different receivers have TD receptions through six games in '08. Steve Kragthorpe took over at Louisville as its head coach in '07. The Cardinals had gone to nine straight bowls and since the beginning of this decade, had posted a 68-20 (.773) record. Louisville went just 6-6 last year and ended its nine-year bowl run. The school's 2-2 start this year is again a huge disappointment (remember, all four games have been at home) and I have no interest at all in laying points with this team in its first road game.
Friday Night Game of the Month 15* Memphis.
Vegas Sports Experts
10* Take Louisville (-6) over Memphis (NCAA Power Play)
8:00 PM EST
Memphis
? 0-9 SU as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points the last 3 years
? 4-10 SU coming off an OVER the total the last 3 seasons
? 1-4 SU when the total posted is between 49.5 and 56 runs
? 2-10 SU vs. Louisville the last 12 games
Brandon Lang
FRIDAY
10 Dime Memphis
FREE - Rays
Bob Balfe
College Football
Memphis +6.5 over Louisville
The Tigers started out 0-3 and have bounced back winning three straight. Memphis has been in every game this year and really are a team on the rise. Memphis has a good scrambling QB and the tallest receivers in the nation. Louisville has a good run defense, but I don't think they will be able to bring the heat because of Arkelon Hall's ability to scramble. Louisville just does not have the offense they once did. In the 4th quarter this year they have been outscored 48-12. This tells me this is not a complete football team and that they cannot finish. The Cardinals also have kicking problems with both freshman kickers. This line is set so low for a reason. Memphis has a real shot to win this game outright.
