Friday

[Happy Hippo]

Friday thoughts:

1) The Knicks are really good. Trade Amare before he comes back and messes it all up. The Knicks might be really good, but Mike Woodson?s goatee is fabulous. For further information... https://twitter.com/MikeWoodsonGoat

The Knicks are at the top of two extremely important statistical categories: last in the league in turnovers and first in the league in 3 pointers made. They were first in the league in turnovers last year, so this *turn*around is notable.

2) Best team in the league right now...OKC. They are 13-5-1 ATS this year, and their chemistry is great. Their offensive vs. defensive efficiency in their last 5 games played is +23.2. The next highest team is the Knicks at 14. That is impressive. Their fans are great, and it has to be one of the best places to play in the league, especially on a Friday night. Their record on Friday nights at home is 28-9 SU and 23-13 ATS.

3) Who will be the second coach this season to be fired? My money is on Lawrence Frank. Internal grumbling with players, and the runs that they give up are unbelievably ridiculous, even by NBA standards. Complete inconsistency with substitutions and lineups. It?s a cluster-fck up in the Motor City.

4) How many fans in Phoenix will be getting a refund today? Ummm, I would. Great move by Robert Sarver, once again proving his status as one of the worst owners in the league.


FRIDAY NIGHT FAVORITES 2012

Home favorites on Friday so far this season:

SU: 30-6 +7.2 ppg
ATS: 21-13-2
O/U: 21-15-0 (average total: 194)

Away favorites on Friday

SU: 14-7 +5 ppg
ATS: 14-7
O/U: 12-9 (average total: 191.7)

Look for some dogs to start covering soon...

 

[Happy Hippo]

ATS: 40-29-4 (+19.1)
OU: 41-37-1 (+1.7)
ML dogs: 0-1 (-1)

Sixers +1.5
Thunder -7.5
Bulls -2.5
Bucks -7
Warriors +6.5
Warriors ML +235
Kings -2.5 x2
Nets-Warriors UNDER 194.5
Raptors-Jazz UNDER 198.5


A few interesting notes on the games tonight:

The Lakers on the road as dog of 5 or more are 1-8 SU (-12.1 ppg) and 2-7 ATS in their last 9. Against one of the hottest teams in the league, I like this trend to hold up. On the other side, the Thunder are 9-1 SU (+15.6 ppg) and 8-2 ATS in their last ten when a favorite of 7 or more. As already noted above, they have a great record playing on Friday nights at home.

I realize that everyone and their mother will be betting on the Bulls tonight, and why not. Sometimes, even your mother has to be right... The Bulls have won the last 15 times they have played the Pistons, and the margin has never been less than 3 (average 10.9). The Bulls are 7-1 ATS as an away favorite after winning as an away favorite. The Pistons are having internal issues, as players are calling out their coach and his inconsistency. Knight is playing through injury. In historical news, Lawrence Frank is only the third coach in the history of the NBA to start at least 0-8 with two separate franchises. Not sure how much longer he will be employed...

The Magic are playing their fourth away game, and they have overachieved on the road trip. After covering 3 spreads on the road, they are 0-9 SU (-10 ppg) as an away dog. For all teams in this situation, since the 2009 season, they are 62-181 (-6.6 ppg). Finally, the Magic are 1-8 SU (-13.8 ppg) after an away loss in which they scored 15 points less than expected. Not a great spot for the Magic, especially against a small spread. On the flip side, this is the Kings first home game as a favorite on Friday night since 2010! They have a good home court advantage on Fridays, going 56-20 since 1995 and winning by average of 8.6 ppg.

The Bucks are 12-0 SU (+15.2 ppg) after losing two on the road in their last 12. The Bobcats are 1-11 SU (-15.8 ppg) on the road after a home loss in their last 12. A story of twelves, and a gross differential in points.



Good luck...

 

[Englishman]

Great write. Valuable info indeed.

Thanks very much.

 

[talos]

Brooklyn at home on Friday
10-1 last 11 ATS
OKC at home on Friiday this year is
8-2 SU and 5-5 ATS

 

[grandpa]

Brooklyn at home on Friday
10-1 last 11 ATS
OKC at home on Friiday this year is
8-2 SU and 5-5 ATS

Okc has played 10 home games on Friday night already? This doesn't add up

 

[Happy Hippo]

Brooklyn at home on Friday
10-1 last 11 ATS
OKC at home on Friiday this year is
8-2 SU and 5-5 ATS

OKC on Friday during the calendar year of 2012 is 8-2 SU and 5-5 ATS, but the average margin has still been 10.2 ppg and the average spread -9.9 ppg. This still bears well for them tonight.

Brooklyn is 10-1 or 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 at home on Friday, depending on the closing line you use against Orlando in 2010. But the average line for these games has been +1.2, and in 6 of these games, they were the dog.

I would not base a play solely on how well a team plays at home on a Friday night, and I certainly didn't play the Warriors based on Brooklyn winning by an average of 3.9 ppg in their last 11 Friday night home games, although it would still trend towards the Warriors given that information.

Regardless, play the other side if you see a different angle that you like.

 

[ivabign]

Okc has played 10 home games on Friday night already? This doesn't add up

They have played 7 games in total on Friday (home and away) this season

oops - didn't see above post.

BUT - coming from a Laker fan for 30 years - this is either a spot where the Lakers whip OKC - or go down by 20 - probably 66/34% in favor of blowout.

I will be playing OKC